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Qlosr - Solid Q3 delivery

03 december 2024

<a id="bm-comp-f4dcd5ed-cf2c-424b-89b1-f79dacfbdca7" name="bm-comp-f4dcd5ed-cf2c-424b-89b1-f79dacfbdca7" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f4dcd5ed-cf2c-424b-89b1-f79dacfbdca7" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Minor estimate revisions</li><li>Subscription business performed well...</li><li>...despite a challenging market</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-3613deb7-11e1-4807-b0cf-98ef3079cbc4" name="bm-comp-3613deb7-11e1-4807-b0cf-98ef3079cbc4" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="3613deb7-11e1-4807-b0cf-98ef3079cbc4" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q3 results better than expected</h3><p>Q3 revenue and EBITDA were 6% and 39% above our estimates, respectively. Even though the deviations are seemingly large in relative terms, we note that they are not large in absolute terms. The subscription business is still performing, despite slower momentum in the market. A little more than half (55%) of the revenues were attributable to the subscription business, and the remainder to hardware sales. We surmise that the subscription business earns approximately the same margin as the hardware sales business, despite the migration of revenues from a traditional transaction-based model to a subscription model &#8212; an operational change that temporarily reduces margins.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimate changes</h3><p>Following the report, we raise '24e-'26e revenue by 1% but maintain our adj. EBITDA. Achieving 10% organic revenue growth is contingent on the company accelerating the order intake for its subscription business. While that will require additional financing, it is likely viable with the proposed ownership structure. Note that we have not incorporated the proposed transaction in which ECIT acquires the operating subsidiaries of Qlosr because the transaction has not yet closed and is subject to the usual approval procedures. Our view of the group of operating subsidiaries is unchanged, as we believe that a transformation from a transaction-based model to a subscription-based model can be value-accretive over time, if done with prudent financing.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Valuation</h3><p>Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~5x '25e EV/adj. EBITA, which is ~45% below Swedish micro cap serial acquirers.</p></td></tr></table>

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