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Eastnine - Highly accretive deal

28 november 2024

<p><a id="bm-comp-0740e293-4bf0-45d7-bba5-93bbe8484079" class="BMCustomAnchor" name="bm-comp-0740e293-4bf0-45d7-bba5-93bbe8484079"></a></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td style="vertical-align: top; width: 100.000000%;"> <ul> <li>Warsaw Unit adds ~40% to top-line...</li> <li>...and &gt;15% to CEPS in 2025/2026e</li> <li>Impressive execution, share now at 12.5x 2025e CEPS</li> </ul> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><a id="bm-comp-99a861c4-dcc5-46dc-ae7e-b9eac343047d" class="BMCustomAnchor" name="bm-comp-99a861c4-dcc5-46dc-ae7e-b9eac343047d"></a></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td style="vertical-align: top; width: 100.000000%;"> <h3 class="bm-h3">Warsaw enters with a bang</h3> <p>As noted in our <a href="https://abg-portal.bluematrix.com/report/e3c7b42b-78dc-47cf-a1ce-4f354bbe57fa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fast Comment from this Tuesday</a>, Eastnine has completed the largest office transaction in Europe YTD, buying Warsaw Unit for EUR 280m. The property comprises 59,800 sqm, is fully occupied with tenants such as Warta, CBRE, Moderna, Stryker and Amazon, and has<br />a rental value of EUR 18m. Based on the earnings capacity provided by the company in conjunction with the deal announcement, the NOI margin is anticipated to be in the high 90s, taking the group NOI margin up by ~1.5pp. Similarly, the group WAULT increases by ~0.4 years and the occupancy comes up ~1.6pp. We raise our CEPS estimates by ~15.5% for 2025e and ~17.5% for 2026e.</p> <h3 class="bm-h3">Financing solution a key incremental positive</h3> <p>The acquisition is financed with cash, an EUR 168m green bank loan (5Y maturity, slightly above 200 bps margin and fully swapped) and with ~8.8m shares to the vendor (Ghelamco) issued at the Q3 EPRA NRV (EUR 4.68), i.e. approximately ~EUR 41m. This means that the acquisition was made with a 60% LTV, and Eastnine is able to keep its group net LTV at 50% (in line with targets) at the same time as CEPS rises significantly.</p> <h3 class="bm-h3">Clearly standing out vs. office peers in Sweden</h3> <p>As previously noted, we are impressed by the recent occupancy trend (94.4% in Q3 vs. 92.7% in Q1) and expect positive net letting in both Q3 and Q4e to drive occupancy even higher in the upcoming quarters. While many office companies in Sweden struggle with negative rent reversion, higher vacancies and/or negative net letting, Eastnine stands out positively. We have the impression that the company wants to continue to grow with acquisitions in the years to come, even though it might need to consolidate a bit in the near term. The share is currently trading at a 2025e P/CEPS of 12.5x, some ~30% below the sector average.</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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