<a id="bm-comp-d0bb7c58-2c24-4930-b60f-f1c4d7cd6c3a" name="bm-comp-d0bb7c58-2c24-4930-b60f-f1c4d7cd6c3a" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="d0bb7c58-2c24-4930-b60f-f1c4d7cd6c3a" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q3: 18% ARR growth vs. ABGSCe 19.5%, FCF slightly lower</li><li>'24 guidance modified yesterday - lower ARR, but better profitability</li><li>Expect cons '24e EBITDA up 10-20%, more limited revisions in '25e</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-04fcc972-d83e-4194-9748-39a986b722e2" name="bm-comp-04fcc972-d83e-4194-9748-39a986b722e2" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="04fcc972-d83e-4194-9748-39a986b722e2" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q3 numbers vs. ABGSCe</h3><p>Q3 ARR of DKK 97.4m was slightly below our DKK 98.6m estimate and corresponded to 18% y-o-y growth. Churn of 5% and new sales of 12% were in line, but uplift of 8% was 2pp weaker than our estimate. NRR was thus 103% and continued to slide vs. previous quarters (it was 114% in Q3'23 and 105% in Q2'24). Q3 revenues of DKK 17.0m came in materially below ABGSCe, driven both by seasonality in revenue recognition and the temporary downgrades from a few customers earlier this year. Adj. EBITDA of DKK -2.0m thus missed our estimate of DKK 0.6m despite lower-than-expected opex. Lastly, FCF (excl. leases) of DKK -6.5m in the quarter was roughly in line with our estimate of DKK -6.1m, taking the cash position to DKK 21.7m (in line with ABGSCe at DKK 21.8m). Despite the growth setback, however, we note that Penneo's SaaS metrics continue to develop more favourably (see graph below), with ARPA edging slightly higher and CAC continuing to decline.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Guidance already modified yesterday</h3><p>Penneo already modified its FY'24 guidance yesterday evening (see <a href="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?mime=pdf&co=abgsc&id=replaceme@bluematrix.com&source=mail&encrypt=bf91b248-b57b-450b-b7fd-b455168fef15" target="_blank" data-bm-doc-id="82099">here</a>), now expecting ARR of DKK 101m-106m from previously DKK 105m-112m and compared to unrevised ABGSCe of DKK 106m, driven by the timing of several large KYC and Sign deals. Despite the lower top-line, Penneo raised its adj. EBITDA guidance to DKK 10m-15m, which compares to the previous range of DKK 5m-10m and unrevised ABGSCe of DKK 11m. This is mostly driven by slower headcount growth.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Consensus estimate revisions</h3><p>We reiterate our expectation (from yesterday evening) that consensus is likely to raise '24e EBITDA by 10-20% (on low numbers) with more limited revisions in '25e on somewhat softer growth prospects largely offsetting the faster-than-expected improvement in profitability. Penneo will host a conference call at 10:00am CET.</p><table id="bm-img-8795d3f2-7dce-4924-bde7-1295d2254bb5" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">ABGSCe vs. FY'24 guidance</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="8795d3f2-7dce-4924-bde7-1295d2254bb5" bm-img-original-height="82" bm-img-original-width="845" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83491_6f228179-a5bf-4176-8913-416090951ae0.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-8ec18205-2f5f-44f3-b7e6-fc0129e08ca9" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83491_6f228179-a5bf-4176-8913-416090951ae0_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83491_6f228179-a5bf-4176-8913-416090951ae0.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table><table id="bm-img-95ee2c24-48db-42c2-a05a-05834b37de22" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Deviation table</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="95ee2c24-48db-42c2-a05a-05834b37de22" bm-img-original-height="419" bm-img-original-width="861" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83491_a4ec18c8-8477-4551-947f-fa99faf8066d.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-95ee2c24-48db-42c2-a05a-05834b37de22" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83491_a4ec18c8-8477-4551-947f-fa99faf8066d_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83491_a4ec18c8-8477-4551-947f-fa99faf8066d.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table><table id="bm-img-5732d6a8-096e-4ea2-bda2-59faefbc87b9" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">CAC, ARPA, and ARR in first year</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="5732d6a8-096e-4ea2-bda2-59faefbc87b9" bm-img-original-height="424" bm-img-original-width="782" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83491_844e0355-6233-4103-bac7-b5185c2c1bbf.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-5732d6a8-096e-4ea2-bda2-59faefbc87b9" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83491_844e0355-6233-4103-bac7-b5185c2c1bbf_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83491_844e0355-6233-4103-bac7-b5185c2c1bbf.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>