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Inission - Q3 as expected, gradual recovery in '25e

08 november 2024

<a id="bm-comp-87411f3e-6e99-4432-8c5d-a6f7001c760a" name="bm-comp-87411f3e-6e99-4432-8c5d-a6f7001c760a" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="87411f3e-6e99-4432-8c5d-a6f7001c760a" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Sales -9% (-16% ex. M&amp;A), EBITA 5.7% (8.8%), but vs. record comps</li><li>Q4 likely bottom, cost cuts and demand stabilisation impact from Q1</li><li>Gradual recovery in '25e, 10-7x '24e-'26e P/E, FV SEK 50-70</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-0f73b969-d8d1-46b5-83c6-f044f85b7ecf" name="bm-comp-0f73b969-d8d1-46b5-83c6-f044f85b7ecf" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="0f73b969-d8d1-46b5-83c6-f044f85b7ecf" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Q3 results</font></h3><p>With Q3 sales 3% below but EBITA 1% above ABGSCe, Inission largely met our lowered expectations for the report. Sales were down 9% y-o-y (-16% ex. M&amp;A), and the EBITA margin came in at 5.7% (8.8%), down 3.1pp, albeit vs. record-high comps. Cash flow was weak, with lease adj. FCF of SEK -59m, but a large portion of this was due to the SEK -46m effect from the discontinuation of invoice factoring, a process that has now been concluded. Although there may be some minor effects from this in Q4 as well, cash flow should improve significantly. The company started reporting order intake and order book in the quarter, with these amounting to SEK 464m (458m) and SEK 1,030m (1,436m), respectively. This means book-to-bill was 0.99x (slightly above 1x in September), and the order book corresponds to roughly two quarters of sales, indicating that orders and order book duration has normalised.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Estimates and outlook</font></h3><p>We leave our estimates largely unchanged following the in-line report. Demand differs between customers, but overall management judges that the decline will decelerate in Q4, flatten out in H1'25 and return to growth in H2'25, which matches our thinking. Cost reduction efforts have intensified given weaker demand; we expect most of the impact from these to come through in Q1e, with full impact from Q2e. The reduced FY guidance of SEK 2.1bn-2.2bn in sales and an EBITA margin of 6% was reiterated, and we now estimate SEK 2.15bn and 6.1%, respectively.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Valuation</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">The share is down 24% L3M (vs. Nordic peer average +5%, OMXSSMAC -13%) and is currently trading at 10-7x '24e-'26e P/E on our updated estimates (vs. peers at 14-9x), which is 30-25% below its historical median. As our long-term view of the company remains largely unchanged, we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 50-70.</font></p></td></tr></table>

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