Information från ABG Sundal Collier

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Inission - Delivers on reduced expectations

08 november 2024

<a id="bm-comp-90eef558-f4b6-43d9-b2df-09251a441d7a" name="bm-comp-90eef558-f4b6-43d9-b2df-09251a441d7a" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="90eef558-f4b6-43d9-b2df-09251a441d7a" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Sales -3%, EBITA +1% vs. ABGSCe, book-to-bill 0.99x</li><li>Expects decline to decelerate from here, return to growth in H2'25</li><li>Cash flow weak partly due to transition away from invoice factoring</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-b2ed6eac-f0eb-479a-ba0d-94dd7fe7298b" name="bm-comp-b2ed6eac-f0eb-479a-ba0d-94dd7fe7298b" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b2ed6eac-f0eb-479a-ba0d-94dd7fe7298b" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Q3 results</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">Sales came in at SEK 468m (-2.7% vs. ABGSCe 481m), -9.0% y-o-y. EBITA was SEK 26m (+0.7% vs. ABGSCe 26m), for a margin of +5.6% (ABGSCe +5.4%). FCF lease adj. came in at SEK -59m (-257% vs. ABGSCe 37m), partly weak due to the transition from invoice factoring to credit facilities, which affected cash flow by -46m. Order intake continued to improve, with book-to-bill reaching 0.99x. The company started reporting order intake and order book this quarter, which amounted to SEK 464m (458m) and SEK 1,030m (1,436m), respectively.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Estimates and outlook</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">On numbers alone, '24e-'26e sales change by -0.6%, and EBITA adj. changes by +0.1%.</font> Demand differs significantly between customers, but overall, management judges that the decline will decelerate in Q4, flatten out in H1'25 and return to growth in H2'25.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Valuation</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">The share has returned -20% L3M (vs. peer median +2.3% and OMXSSMAC -13%), and is currently trading at 10x-7.3x '24e-'26e P/E on our pre-report estimates vs. the peer median of 13x-10x.</font></p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-9c4d561a-87dd-420c-8f3f-81dd1b9cfc88" name="bm-comp-9c4d561a-87dd-420c-8f3f-81dd1b9cfc88" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="9c4d561a-87dd-420c-8f3f-81dd1b9cfc88" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-e0045e26-f9ea-46a0-95ae-e52588170349" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Deviation table</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="e0045e26-f9ea-46a0-95ae-e52588170349" bm-img-original-height="708" bm-img-original-width="524" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83199_cf732524-7bb7-4d09-ba6e-ada4ba22f119.svg" bm-img-width-hint="72.08%" id="bm-id-e0045e26-f9ea-46a0-95ae-e52588170349" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83199_cf732524-7bb7-4d09-ba6e-ada4ba22f119_524.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83199_cf732524-7bb7-4d09-ba6e-ada4ba22f119.svg" width="524" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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