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BTS Group - Europe recovered in Q3

08 november 2024

<a id="bm-comp-36d38c79-6aaa-4707-9e59-a38b86e8a23f" name="bm-comp-36d38c79-6aaa-4707-9e59-a38b86e8a23f" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="36d38c79-6aaa-4707-9e59-a38b86e8a23f" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Adj. EBITA -9% vs ABG and -26% vs cons (one large outlier)</li><li>5% organic growth (ABG 8%) vs 1% in Q2 and growth in all regions</li><li>FY guidance unchanged, estimates and share neutral to slightly down</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-17b5c5ea-4146-4da9-be1c-360619c6d567" name="bm-comp-17b5c5ea-4146-4da9-be1c-360619c6d567" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="17b5c5ea-4146-4da9-be1c-360619c6d567" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q3 details</h3><p>Sales SEK 657m (-3% vs ABG 676m, -3% vs cons 677m), adj. EBITA 60m (-9% vs ABG 66m, -26% vs cons 81m), adj. EBITA margin 9.2% (ABG 9.8%, cons 11.9%). FX adj growth 8% (vs ABG 10%). Net income was positively affected by a SEK 166m reversed earn-out for the Netmind acquisition, explaining the EPS beat.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Europe recovered as promised</h3><p>European sales grew 5% in Q3, up from -23% in Q2 and in line with previous communication of low-single digit recovery in H2. North America slowed somewhat to 6% growth amid some hesitant customers likely awaiting the US election outcome, while Rest of World grew 16%. One consensus estimate outlier on the upside, so we put little emphasis on the large deviation to cons. The SEK 7m EBITA miss vs us in Other markets mainly explained the group deviation on EBITA of SEK 6m. BTS reiterates FY guidance of &#8220;2024 EBITA will be better than 2023&#8221; as expected although some risks if Europe continued weak (cons has 11% EBITA growth, ABG 8%), which limits estimate revisions.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimates and stock neutral to slightly down</h3><p>Consensus (adjusted for the outlier) likely to cut EBITA estimates by 2-3% but report pretty much as expected, and share should be neutral or just slightly down today. Conf call at CET 9.30.</p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-c473cfb7-5c18-4cc9-8d49-90a9eb308267" name="bm-comp-c473cfb7-5c18-4cc9-8d49-90a9eb308267" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="c473cfb7-5c18-4cc9-8d49-90a9eb308267" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-cb046e7b-1609-4bb7-9df5-787c7c3b5f4f" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Deviation</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="cb046e7b-1609-4bb7-9df5-787c7c3b5f4f" bm-img-original-height="1052" bm-img-original-width="784" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83181_a715bb48-043e-4272-a376-bd05c1d2bdbb.svg" bm-img-width-hint="71.80%" id="bm-id-cb046e7b-1609-4bb7-9df5-787c7c3b5f4f" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83181_a715bb48-043e-4272-a376-bd05c1d2bdbb_522.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83181_a715bb48-043e-4272-a376-bd05c1d2bdbb.svg" width="522" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet consensus, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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