<a id="bm-comp-f00a959a-e955-4d44-bbbb-e079f34ffa84" name="bm-comp-f00a959a-e955-4d44-bbbb-e079f34ffa84" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f00a959a-e955-4d44-bbbb-e079f34ffa84" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>EBITDA +6% vs ABGSC and EBIT turned positive in Q3</li><li>We expect consensus to lift 2024 EBITDA by 10-15% and '25e-'26e by ~5%</li><li>Increased conviction in positive EBIT 2025e</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-4c61c4bf-8e10-482f-9c1f-0b0f52c5ce63" name="bm-comp-4c61c4bf-8e10-482f-9c1f-0b0f52c5ce63" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="4c61c4bf-8e10-482f-9c1f-0b0f52c5ce63" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q3 details</h3><p>Continued solid growth and better margins in Q3. Sales SEK 44m (-1% vs ABGSC 44m). FX adjusted growth 21% (vs ABGSC 21%). Order intake SEK 37m (+31% y-o-y), ARR SEK 127m (+10% y-o-y). EBITDA SEK 11m (+6% vs ABGSC 10m). EBIT SEK 1m (vs ABGSC -1m). Non-recurring items of SEK 1m also impacted reported EBIT and EBITDA negatively. Adjusted EBITDA was SEK 12m (25% margin). Operating cash flow SEK 2m (SEK -4m working capital) and free cash flow SEK -7m. YTD operating cash flow was SEK -1m and management guides for it to turn positive on full-year 2024. After Q3 ended, Clavister received SEK 50m before transaction fees from the warrant series TO8 (98% subscription rate), which should lead to a significant reduction of the net debt (SEK 203m in Q3).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Preliminary estimate changes</h3><p>While sales were relatively in line with expectations, profitability was stronger than expected. Moreover, with one quarter left, management is targeting an EBITDA margin over 20% for 2024 (ABGSC 16%). As such, we expect consensus to raise estimates for 2024 by 10-15% and 2025-2026 by ~5%.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Final thoughts</h3><p>The company is maintaining a solid sales trajectory while maintaining good cost control (opex expected to remain flat y-o-y for 2024 according to management), allowing the company to scale well on the cost base given ~20% sales growth and ~80% gross margins. It was also encouraging to see EBIT turning positive in Q3, which increases our conviction that Clavister will be able to deliver a positive sustainable EBIT during 2025e. Management will host a presentation of the report 9:00 CET (<a href="https://eur02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapp.goto.com%2Fwebinar%2F3456087645806476127&data=05%7C02%7CSimon.Jonsson%40abgsc.se%7Cdcc68a12d5ba4c1a82fe08dcff0155c1%7C853e8b8340544eb98b26ec6513dd213d%7C0%7C0%7C638665628416132013%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=CJ%2BMR1Fed6srzKjIZ7dTPXkf8DHHgdy5tSmXGsyDpho%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">link</a>).</p><table id="bm-img-df0beb7d-e41c-4294-8cee-184bf9339273" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Deviation table</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="df0beb7d-e41c-4294-8cee-184bf9339273" bm-img-original-height="505" bm-img-original-width="842" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83163_ef7e3194-ba14-47d2-84bd-8ec80fd60b75.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-df0beb7d-e41c-4294-8cee-184bf9339273" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83163_ef7e3194-ba14-47d2-84bd-8ec80fd60b75_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83163_ef7e3194-ba14-47d2-84bd-8ec80fd60b75.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>
Clavister - Solid Q3, on track for positive EBIT 2025e
07 november 2024