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Catella - Underlying Q3 in line

07 november 2024

<a id="bm-comp-c2e03b9a-2517-452c-883f-a4d7152bbec3" name="bm-comp-c2e03b9a-2517-452c-883f-a4d7152bbec3" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="c2e03b9a-2517-452c-883f-a4d7152bbec3" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q3 adj. EBIT of SEK 32m, +1% vs. ABGSC</li><li>AUM flat q-o-q when adjusting for FX headwinds</li><li>Q3 in line with expectations, stock flattish today</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-61471396-4a9a-48c5-9bab-9742b69f15ae" name="bm-comp-61471396-4a9a-48c5-9bab-9742b69f15ae" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="61471396-4a9a-48c5-9bab-9742b69f15ae" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><strong>Q3 adj. EBIT of SEK 32m, +1% vs. ABGSC</strong></h3><p>Catella reported an EBIT of SEK 19m (33m) in Q3&#8217;24, which was 44% below ABGSC forecast of SEK 34m and 27% below FactSet consensus, which forecasted SEK 26m. However, when adjusting for one-offs burdening the quarter, the adjusted EBIT came in at 32m, which is 1% above ABGSC forecast. The company highlights that they aim to divest the French Polaxis project within Principal Investments during Q4 which should further strengthen the liquidity, which remains strong at SEK 869m for Q3. For the Kaktus project, the divestment timeline seems more open, where the company highlights that they are in active dialogues with investors currently.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><strong>AUM flat q-o-q when adjusting for FX</strong></h3><p>The net sales in Q3 came in at SEK 379m (393m), which was 6% above ABGSC's forecast and consensus. Reported EBITDA came in at SEK 39m, 27% below ABGSC at SEK 54m and 30% below FactSet consensus at SEK 56m. The AUM came in at SEK 151.4bn, down 1% q-o-q (SEK 1.2bn), which was 1% below ABGSC forecast. The decrease compared to the end of the second quarter, was primarily driven by exchange rate headwinds but also negative revaluation effects. However, we do not believe this will trigger any major consensus earnings revisions for 2025-26e.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><strong>Q3 in line with expectations, stock flattish today</strong></h3><p>We expect consensus to keep their 2025-&#8216;26e adj. EBIT estimates intact to slightly down -2-0% following the report. As the report was roughly in line with forecast and similar to the previous reports seen throughout 2024, with limited consensus revisions to follow, we expect the share to trade in line with the market today. Conf. Call at 10.00 CET</p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-4b8ef75f-4469-4bd9-a272-d25bfa31af0f" name="bm-comp-4b8ef75f-4469-4bd9-a272-d25bfa31af0f" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="4b8ef75f-4469-4bd9-a272-d25bfa31af0f" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-3eb171ca-89e0-4f60-b37f-03f2dbab07eb" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="3eb171ca-89e0-4f60-b37f-03f2dbab07eb" bm-img-original-height="489" bm-img-original-width="945" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83012_8408c2c3-232a-480b-916c-004600ff4069.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-3eb171ca-89e0-4f60-b37f-03f2dbab07eb" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83012_8408c2c3-232a-480b-916c-004600ff4069_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83012_8408c2c3-232a-480b-916c-004600ff4069.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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