Information från ABG Sundal Collier

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SinterCast - Better than feared, strong installation outlook

06 november 2024

<a id="bm-comp-6ea64190-c8b1-4ecd-bc33-e3e1ec032d24" name="bm-comp-6ea64190-c8b1-4ecd-bc33-e3e1ec032d24" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="6ea64190-c8b1-4ecd-bc33-e3e1ec032d24" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>14% EBIT beat on strong SC sales despite EE volume decrease</li><li>Near-term headwinds from programme shut down and weak market</li><li>Great installation outlook, Q3 orders SEK 9m, stronger growth in '25</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-cb7017f0-230d-4842-8172-092a5c576872" name="bm-comp-cb7017f0-230d-4842-8172-092a5c576872" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="cb7017f0-230d-4842-8172-092a5c576872" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Q3 results</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">Sales came in at SEK 33m (+8.9% vs. ABGSCe 30m), -19% y-o-y. Annualised EEs produced were 3.5m (0% vs. ABGSCe 3.5m), -17% y-o-y. Sampling cups sold were 51,825 (+22% vs. ABGSCe 42,500), -18% y-o-y. The sales beat was driven by higher sampling cup sales than expected, which we expected to come down more ahead of low Q4 production volumes. EBIT adj. was SEK 13m (+14% vs. ABGSCe 12m), for a margin of +40% (ABGSCe +39%).</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Estimates and outlook</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">On the Q3 numbers alone, '24e-'26e sales change by +2.0%, and EBIT adj. changes by +3.9%. The rising USD will also contribute positively. There is n</font>ear-term weakness from the previously announced 0.5m EE programme shutdown which started in September and 10-20% volume reductions from most EU and NA OEMs within commercial vehicles, as end-customer demand has softened. The installation outlook is however very strong, with SEK 9m of system orders in Q3 alone, compared to the historical annual average of 8m. This combined with the other ramping programmes makes us confident in stronger '25 growth.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Valuation</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">The share has returned 0% L3M (vs. peer median +2.1% and OMXSALLS +6.1%), and is currently trading at 23x-15x '24e-'26e P/E on our pre-report estimates vs. the historical median of 26x-15x.</font></p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-6f86bd8f-9b1b-4053-8f97-477e98bfc433" name="bm-comp-6f86bd8f-9b1b-4053-8f97-477e98bfc433" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="6f86bd8f-9b1b-4053-8f97-477e98bfc433" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-970f2320-6e54-459e-98af-b6e86f244050" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Deviation table</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="970f2320-6e54-459e-98af-b6e86f244050" bm-img-original-height="626" bm-img-original-width="524" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/83109_e0c58665-7654-45e1-b139-12eacb38ee9b.svg" bm-img-width-hint="72.08%" id="bm-id-970f2320-6e54-459e-98af-b6e86f244050" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/83109_e0c58665-7654-45e1-b139-12eacb38ee9b_524.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/83109_e0c58665-7654-45e1-b139-12eacb38ee9b.svg" width="524" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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