Information från ABG Sundal Collier

Här finner du information kring börsens mindre och medelstora bolag. Avsändare är ABG Sundal Collier, innehållet är inte skapat av placera.nu:s redaktion.

« Tillbaka

Skolon - Tough comps, but solid volume-driven growth

03 oktober 2024

<a id="bm-comp-85a20fe8-0dfb-4c64-8ee2-d8f440a36b05" name="bm-comp-85a20fe8-0dfb-4c64-8ee2-d8f440a36b05" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="85a20fe8-0dfb-4c64-8ee2-d8f440a36b05" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q3'24e organic sales growth of 24% y-o-y</li><li>Minor positive estimate revisions</li><li>FVR of SEK 25-40 reiterated</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-05d2a5d4-dbcf-46d4-bab9-6d7683ba1454" name="bm-comp-05d2a5d4-dbcf-46d4-bab9-6d7683ba1454" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="05d2a5d4-dbcf-46d4-bab9-6d7683ba1454" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">What to expect in Q3'24e</h3><p>We expect Q3 to deliver solid volume-driven sales, as the quarter is seasonally strengthened by the start of the school year. However, we expect growth to come down somewhat, as Q3'23 was exceptionally strong and presents tough comps. We expect sales of SEK 50m for Q3'24 (24% y-o-y), along with EBITDA of SEK 0.6m. Furthermore, we expect a continued increase in the utilisation rate, meaning increased sales of partner tools. This is positive for sales, but tends to weigh on the gross margin. We expect growth in paying users of 23% y-o-y and consequently an ARPPU of SEK 158.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Minor estimate changes</h3><p>We raise our '24e-'26e sales by 0-2% and '25e-'26e EBITDA by 2-4% due to operating leverage. We leave our Q3 estimates largely unchanged, as the tough comps from Q3'23 were already reflected in our estimates. The continued international expansion should support an increase in paying users of 28% for the full year. Furthermore, the recent strong growth in ARPPU implies an increase in utilisation rate, although given that the utilisation rate for new users is typically lower than for recurring customers, we expect more modest growth in ARPPU for the year of 12%.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Implied valuation</h3><p>Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at a 4x-3x '25e-'26e EV/Sales multiple, which is on par with the peer group for '25e, but 20% lower for '26e despite 3x higher sales growth in '26e. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 25-40.</p></td></tr></table>

Senaste artiklar från alla bolag

Datum Titel Bolag Typ
2024-11-08 DistIT - Signs of improvement on the horizon DistIT Analys
2024-11-08 Inission - Q3 as expected, gradual recovery in '25e Inission Analys
2024-11-08 Formpipe - Ready for margin expansion Formpipe Analys
2024-11-08 NYAB - Good execution NYAB Analys
2024-11-08 Cavotec - Seventh quarter of EBIT improvement Cavotec Analys
2024-11-08 Inission - Delivers on reduced expectations Inission Analys
2024-11-08 BTS Group - Europe recovered in Q3 BTS Group Analys
2024-11-07 Clavister - Better than expected, continues to ex... Clavister Analys
2024-11-07 Xplora Technologies - 66% EBITDA beat on strong w... Xplora Tech.. Analys
2024-11-07 Arctic Paper - Q3 slightly above, Q4 likely flat/... Arctic Paper Analys
2024-11-07 Clavister - Solid Q3, on track for positive EBIT ... Clavister Analys
2024-11-07 DistIT - Solid cost control amid challenging cond... DistIT Analys
2024-11-07 Catella - Underlying Q3 in line Catella Analys
2024-11-06 OrganoClick - NW&FT return to growth delayed OrganoClick Analys
2024-11-06 SinterCast - Near-term headwinds, strong mid-term... SinterCast Analys
2024-11-06 Napatech - Waiting for more design wins Napatech Analys
2024-11-06 Bredband2 - Solid Q3, prices set to rise Bredband2 Analys
2024-11-06 NYAB - Improved profitability and record order book NYAB Analys
2024-11-06 OrganoClick - Market headwinds force some price r... OrganoClick Analys
2024-11-06 SinterCast - Better than feared, strong installat... SinterCast Analys