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Gaming Innovation Group - Ready to split 1 October

28 augusti 2024

<a id="bm-comp-4332800c-fc1a-43a0-af71-5b27478d5cd7" name="bm-comp-4332800c-fc1a-43a0-af71-5b27478d5cd7" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="4332800c-fc1a-43a0-af71-5b27478d5cd7" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Media keeps delivering like clockwork, 18% organic growth in Q2</li><li>We remove Platform and Sportsbook from group P&amp;L estimates</li><li>Limited underlying revisions &#8211; strong P&amp;S recovery awaits</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-7b3473d0-41e7-42e3-93cf-8db2af7477d7" name="bm-comp-7b3473d0-41e7-42e3-93cf-8db2af7477d7" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="7b3473d0-41e7-42e3-93cf-8db2af7477d7" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Gentoo delivering best-in-class growth and margins</h3><p>We remain encouraged by the strong and stable organic growth in Gentoo Media (i.e., GiG Media), hovering around 20% over the last four quarters (18% in Q2), especially compared to affiliate peers of which many are currently struggling. Betco, which is the highest valued affiliate peer (both on multiples and in absolute terms), saw -1% organic (pro forma) growth in H1; Raketech saw 8% (-4% in Q2), CTM -38%, and Gambling.com 13% (not organic, incl. small M&amp;A). Furthermore, the adj. EBITDA margin has remained remarkably stable at ~47% over the last 3 years, with a small uptick in Q2 to 49%, which is best-in-class vs. affiliate peers. We make limited revisions and expect the division to deliver according to the FY'24 guidance.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Platform &amp; Sportsbook ready for a strong recovery</h3><p>Platform &amp; Sportsbook (P&amp;S) was weaker than expected in Q2, and the FY'24e guidance was as well driven by Enterprise and client exits from '23. With a strong pipeline, however, the division expects a strong revenue acceleration primarily from Q4'24 and onwards, while opex is expected to remain flattish for a ~100% incremental margin. This results in guidance of &gt;EUR 10m in adj. EBITDA, driven by &gt;38% revenue growth. While this may seem optimistic, 82% of the expected 2025 revenue is contracted today, and 90% is expected by the division by YE'24. We arrive slightly below guidance on a cautious approach, but nonetheless expect 36% top line growth with ~100% drop-through in '25e.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Peers trading at ~6x '25e EV/EBITDA</h3><p>Ahead of the planned spin-off of GiG P&amp;S 1 Oct, we show our compiled peer groups for the respective division on page 3, noting that the averages and medians for '25e EV/EBITDA are between 5.5x and 6.5x. Note, however, GiG's faster growth in both divisions, and higher margin expansion in P&amp;S.</p></td></tr></table>

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