<a id="bm-comp-7504308c-4844-406a-b119-75b3ac6ddd6c" name="bm-comp-7504308c-4844-406a-b119-75b3ac6ddd6c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="7504308c-4844-406a-b119-75b3ac6ddd6c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>We cut '24e-'26e EBITDA by 17-9%</li><li>Still expect meaningful share of hardware-related sales</li><li>NTM EV/EBITA ~6x</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-0a209fb9-8bd9-4640-837a-795de8c1025e" name="bm-comp-0a209fb9-8bd9-4640-837a-795de8c1025e" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="0a209fb9-8bd9-4640-837a-795de8c1025e" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">What to expect in Q2'24e</h3><p>We expect Q2 revenue of SEK 179m and EBITDA of SEK 8m. On a YTD basis, the company has announced contracts with an estimated order value of ~SEK 650m over nearly four years, implying an annual weighted average contract value of ~SEK 175m. When combining this with the reported ACV of SEK ~406m in Q1'23, there is visibility on the top-line going forward. However, there have been no contract announcements since 25 April 2024. Even though the summer is seasonally weak, the lack of recent contract win announcements means that organic growth momentum is likely to become slightly softer.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimate changes</h3><p>We cut '24e-'26e revenue by 1% and '24e-'26e EBITDA by 17-9%, as we anticipate a higher share of hardware-related sales and because there have been no newly-announced contract wins since late April. It is still likely that Qlosr is getting closer to its targeted pace of ~10% per year, but we are somewhat more cautious with respect to the margins that the business can generate as the business transformation occurs. In terms of net working capital, a continued focus on hardware-related sales could lead to some incremental tie-up of capital, but the company has previously used factoring to manage liquidity in the short-term. Finally, we believe that the potential of the long-term business transformation remains unchanged.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Valuation</h3><p>On our revised estimates, Qlosr is trading at a '24e EV/EBITA of ~14x, which is ~10% above the blended peer average. However, when we consider NTM EV/EBITA, the multiple drops to 6x as we anticipate higher margins once hardware-related sales come down as a total share of sales.</p></td></tr></table>