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Penneo - ARR in line, cash flow better

28 augusti 2024

<a id="bm-comp-b538c123-fcfa-4d3c-8c99-ef47ba07e02c" name="bm-comp-b538c123-fcfa-4d3c-8c99-ef47ba07e02c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b538c123-fcfa-4d3c-8c99-ef47ba07e02c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q2: 21% ARR growth in line, FCF of DKK -4m vs. ABGSCe DKK -6m</li><li>Reiterates FY'24 guidance, as expected</li><li>Expect limited consensus estimate revisions</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-40ad9ccd-34ef-4c22-8643-bb0844bde0d7" name="bm-comp-40ad9ccd-34ef-4c22-8643-bb0844bde0d7" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="40ad9ccd-34ef-4c22-8643-bb0844bde0d7" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q2 numbers vs. ABGSCe</h3><p>Q2 ARR of DKK 95.6m was in line with our DKK 95.8m estimate and corresponded to ~21% y-o-y growth. Churn of 5% was a tad higher than expected, and uplift of 10% was 2pp lower than our estimate. The latter continued to be weighed down by temporary downgrades from customers. However, better-than-expected new sales of 16% compensated, fuelled by strong customer intake (particularly in Denmark and Belgium). Revenues of DKK 24.0m were ~3% below our estimate, but adj. EBITDA came in somewhat higher at DKK 1.5m (vs. ABGSCe of DKK 1.1m). Looking more closely at the cost composition, a portion of the deviation vs. our estimates between staff costs and other external expenses is, to our understanding, driven by a relative increase in freelancers vs. permanent employees (salaries for the former is recognised in other external expenses). Lastly, FCF (excl. leases) of DKK -4m was stronger than our expectation of DKK -6m, taking the cash position to DKK 29m (vs. ABGSCe of DKK 27m). The deviation appears to be driven mainly by better NWC.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Outlook and FY'24 guidance</h3><p>As we had anticipated, Penneo reiterated its FY'24 guidance of implied ARR growth of 18-25% (ABGSCe 22.5%) and an adj. EBITDA of DKK 5m-10m (ABGSCe DKK 8m). While the company has not noted a material change in the demand outlook in the Nordics, Belgium continues at a very solid pace, also expecting a launch of its KYC product in the country during the autumn. The company's entry into the German market is also off to a great start. Lastly, the ambition to achieve at least FCF-neutral status on a run-rate basis from YE'25 is unchanged.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Consensus estimate revisions</h3><p>We expect limited consensus estimate revisions initially. The company will host a conference call at 10:00 CET.</p><table id="bm-img-953039a8-abbb-48c5-ac7b-2256f1fee1b7" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Deviation table</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="953039a8-abbb-48c5-ac7b-2256f1fee1b7" bm-img-original-height="419" bm-img-original-width="861" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/81224_ef05c061-84a9-4130-90d0-230ba2d4dbc3.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-953039a8-abbb-48c5-ac7b-2256f1fee1b7" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/81224_ef05c061-84a9-4130-90d0-230ba2d4dbc3_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/81224_ef05c061-84a9-4130-90d0-230ba2d4dbc3.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table><table id="bm-img-6060cc27-4582-4b5a-9ed8-c3b04e0d666e" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">ABGSCe vs. FY'24 guidance</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="6060cc27-4582-4b5a-9ed8-c3b04e0d666e" bm-img-original-height="82" bm-img-original-width="751" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/81224_645c7328-9d65-460a-b7a4-57173f63b96a.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-6060cc27-4582-4b5a-9ed8-c3b04e0d666e" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/81224_645c7328-9d65-460a-b7a4-57173f63b96a_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/81224_645c7328-9d65-460a-b7a4-57173f63b96a.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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