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Tethys Oil - Q2: EBITDA 8% above, lowers guidance

06 augusti 2024

<a id="bm-comp-cbf0fda7-a29d-4b8d-a2d9-2fb7a014a6c7" name="bm-comp-cbf0fda7-a29d-4b8d-a2d9-2fb7a014a6c7" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="cbf0fda7-a29d-4b8d-a2d9-2fb7a014a6c7" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q2 EBITDA of 15.7m, above ABGSCe of USD 14.5m on lower costs</li><li>Lowers production and capex guidance - Strategic review still ongoing</li><li>Only small changes cons estimates likely</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-e3476635-49df-407e-adcd-bc239a20080b" name="bm-comp-e3476635-49df-407e-adcd-bc239a20080b" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e3476635-49df-407e-adcd-bc239a20080b" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q2 EBITDA 15.7m, above ABGSCe of USD 14.5m on lower costs</h3><p>Tethys Oil reports Q2'24 working interest production of 7.7kboe/d, in line with our expectations. Note that Tethys already has preannounced production and lifted volumes ahead of today's report. Q2 revenues of USD 30.8m was in line with ABGSCe of USD 30.6m. EBITDA in the quarter came in at USD 15.7m, 8% above ABGSCe of USD 14.5m, with the beat being explained by somewhat lower opex than expected. FCF in Q2 was strong and amounted to USD 3.2m (SEK 1.0/sh), vs ABGSCe of USD -11.0m (SEK -3.6/sh) and was positively affected by lower than estimated capex (FY capex guidance lowered). There are no available consensus estimates that are updated ahead of the quarter. In sum, we evaluate the Q2 numbers to be slightly above our expectations due to the EBITDA beat and strong FCF. See more details in the deviation table below.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Lowers production and capex guidance - strategic review still ongoing</h3><p>In the report, Tethys lowers both its production- and capex guidance for FY'24 (see more details in table below). The production guidance is revised down due to the weather related production impact experienced i Q1 and Q2. While the capex guidance is revised down as a result of updated work programmes. The highly anticipated Kunooz-1 well will now begin drilling in the second week of August, vs the original plan of June/July. The strategic review that was announced in the Q4 report is still ongoing and there are no news related to the conclusion of this process in the report. However, the report notes that Tethys is looking at numerous alternatives and that the process has received a lot of interest.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Only small changes to consensus estimates likely</h3><p>In sum, we evaluate Tethys Oil's Q2 numbers to be slightly above our estimates due to the EBITDA beat and strong FCF in the quarter. We argue the downwards revision to production guidance was fairly expected given that it relates to the performance in H1, which has been disclosed through monthly production updates. As such, we believe this will result in consensus only making small estimate revisions after the report. Tethys' will host a conference call at CET 10:00 today.</p><br /><p><strong>Deviation table</strong></p><br /><table id="bm-img-f40bbe89-847d-4ab4-8ca2-04d5ad129b80" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="f40bbe89-847d-4ab4-8ca2-04d5ad129b80" bm-img-original-height="755" bm-img-original-width="965" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/80775_4063556d-82b9-4dd6-86a4-485e76d14857.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-f40bbe89-847d-4ab4-8ca2-04d5ad129b80" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/80775_4063556d-82b9-4dd6-86a4-485e76d14857_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/80775_4063556d-82b9-4dd6-86a4-485e76d14857.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr></table><p><strong>Changes to guidance:</strong></p><table id="bm-img-d24b71bd-3435-44c0-b0a5-6d525fffecef" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="d24b71bd-3435-44c0-b0a5-6d525fffecef" bm-img-original-height="121" bm-img-original-width="1203" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/80775_3a42c2a3-3e59-4386-b06f-9996541914b5.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-d24b71bd-3435-44c0-b0a5-6d525fffecef" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/80775_3a42c2a3-3e59-4386-b06f-9996541914b5_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/80775_3a42c2a3-3e59-4386-b06f-9996541914b5.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr></table><br /></td></tr></table>

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