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CoinShares - Capital Markets expecations was too high

06 augusti 2024

<a id="bm-comp-4fccbed0-cd6a-453c-96bc-c97d10270394" name="bm-comp-4fccbed0-cd6a-453c-96bc-c97d10270394" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="4fccbed0-cd6a-453c-96bc-c97d10270394" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q2 adj. EBIT of GBP 26m, below ABGSCe at GBP 35m</li><li>Slight AUM miss driven by CS Physical</li><li>Q2 worse than expected, stock down low single digits today</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-83b41bf1-9e1b-44d6-b4d3-3805a93363ed" name="bm-comp-83b41bf1-9e1b-44d6-b4d3-3805a93363ed" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="83b41bf1-9e1b-44d6-b4d3-3805a93363ed" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q2 adj. underlying EBIT of GBP 19m, below ABGSCe at GBP 25m</h3><p>To understand the underlying development of CoinShares it is worth adjusting for the Flowbank impairment and FTX claim sale, which one might consider to be of a one-off nature. CoinShares underlying adj. Revenues of GBP 31m, missed ABGSCe by 14%. The revenue miss was mainly driven by the Capital Markets segment and in particular FX/other effects. The Principal Investments segment also came in slightly below ABGSCe, reversing some gains seen in Q1'24. The revenue from the asset management segment was higher than expected at 12% above ABGSCe. This was driven by a higher than expected fee level from the XBT Provider products. Costs were higher than ABGSCe expectations which lead to an underlying adj. EBIT of GBP 19m, 24% below ABGSCe. We believe the cost miss was driven by investments into the Valkyrie brand. The AUM came in 7% below ABGSCe, mainly driven by CoinShares Physical. Since the fee level is higher in XBT provider than CoinShares Physical the mix was favourable and facilitated the Asset management beat.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimates likely down ~5% today</h3><p>CoinShares' Q2'24 report is characterised by many one-offs that should not be extrapolated. When adjusting for the Flowbank impairment and the FTX Claim sale there was still a miss in the Capital Markets segment and the Principal Investments segment. The miss in the Capital markets segment was mainly driven by FX/Other, which should not be extrapolated. Neither should value changes in the Principal Investments segment be extrapolated. In all, we believe that consensus will lower its underlying adj. EBIT by ~5% today.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Weak Q2, stock down low single digits today</h3><p>On numbers alone we expect the stock to go down today. The earnings miss seems significant, but it was affected by items which should not be extrapolated. Furthermore, the mix was favourable since we believe most investors favour earnings from the more stable Asset Management segment. With that said, the miss is still significant, and we expect the stock to go down by low single digits today. There is a conf. call at CET 16.00 today available at https://coinshares.wavecast.io/quarterly-earnings/coinshares-q2-earnings-broadcast.</p></td></tr></table>

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