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SinterCast - EEs announced, est. sales +11%, 38% margin

31 juli 2024

<a id="bm-comp-70c43f4d-c2e1-475e-953d-4f9827bb5dc5" name="bm-comp-70c43f4d-c2e1-475e-953d-4f9827bb5dc5" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="70c43f4d-c2e1-475e-953d-4f9827bb5dc5" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q2e: 4.0m EEs, 58k SCs pre-announced, expect SEK 13m EBIT</li><li>Cut sales by ~4%, EBIT by ~6% on lower EE volume vs. our estimate</li><li>End-of-life programme in H2, estimate -10% impact, H2 EEs -2.5%</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-2a96fa36-a6aa-4230-985f-3cbbd2526c93" name="bm-comp-2a96fa36-a6aa-4230-985f-3cbbd2526c93" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="2a96fa36-a6aa-4230-985f-3cbbd2526c93" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Q2e: EEs, SCs pre-announced, expect limited FX impact</font></h3><p>The company has pre-announced certain Q2 figures, including that series production amounted to 4.0m Engine Equivalents (+8%) alongside Sampling Cup sales of 57.7k (+15%) and installation revenue of SEK 1.2m (0.3m). We estimate this will result in total sales of SEK 35m (+11%) and adj. EBIT of SEK 13.3m (7.7m), for a margin of 38% (24%). As exchange rates have remained fairly stable q-o-q, we expect only a minor impact on EBIT from FX revaluations, and forecast other operating income of SEK 0.4m (-1.9m).</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Cut sales estimates by ~4% on lower pre-announced EEs</font></h3><p>The pre-announced EE figure was somewhat lower than we had estimated, causing us to lower '24e-'26e sales by ~4%, which has a negative ~6% impact on EBIT estimates. We remind investors that one of SinterCast's larger production programmes is reaching end-of-life sometime in late Q3 or early Q4, which we think will affect volume negatively by roughly 10%, but we note that some of this will be offset by other programmes that are ramping up production. This leads us to forecast an H2 volume decline of 2.5% y-o-y, implying full-year EE growth of 5%.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">P/E 22-15x, reiterate fair value SEK 120-150</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">With the share trading at 22-15x '24e-'26e P/E, we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 120-150, based on historical P/E multiples and our DCF valuation, which we think are the most appropriate valuation methods for SinterCast.</font></p></td></tr></table>

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