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Xplora Technologies

Xplora Technologies

Xplora is a leading provider of children’s smartwatches. As of Q1’22 it had sold more than 750k watches since it was founded in 2016. The watches enable parents to keep in contact with their kids but are restricted to only showing child-friendly content. Xplora also receives recurring subscription revenues from the sale of its own mobile subscriptions and value-added software applications. In Q1’22 it had 124k mobile subscribers and recurring revenues was ~25% of its revenues. Xplora has established a strong market position, with 17% total market penetration in Norway and close to 6% for the Nordics overall.

User preferences change over time, and there is a risk that Xplora will not be able to adapt its offering to meet changing preferences. With low barriers to entry there are few obstacles to shield Xplora’s product proposition from being replicated. This could lead to a loss in market share. The company’s churn is 2.5%/month. If Xplora fails to replace the loss in customers, its ARR base would decrease and thus reduce stability in revenue flow. Moreover, Xplora has a large digital platform and could thus be subject to hacking: children could gain access to unsuitable sites and applications, which would damage the company’s reputation.

NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 431 554 782
Sales growth (%) 115,2 28,5 41,1
EBITDA 19 19 48
EBITDA margin (%) 4,4 3,4 6,2
EBIT adj -15 -33 -10
EBIT adj margin (%) -3,4 -5,9 -1,2
Pretax profit -14 -33 -10
EPS rep -0,36 -0,71 -0,19
EPS growth (%) 0 -99,4 73,3
EPS adj 0,34 0,35 0,88
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 22,5 28,4 10,8
EV/EBIT adj (x) -29,7 -16,2 -54,2
P/E (x) -38,1 -19,1 -71,7
P/E adj (x) 40,3 38,9 15,4
EV/sales (x) 1 1 0,7
FCF yield (%) -21,6 -15,7 0,6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -5,7 -0,7 -0,3
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -21,6 -15,7 0,6
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -5,7 -0,7 -0,3
NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 431 554 782
COGS -235 -303 -433
Gross profit 196 251 349
Other operating items -177 -233 -301
EBITDA 19 19 48
Depreciation and amortisation -6 -9 -15
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 13 10 33
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -28 -42 -43
EBIT -15 -33 -10
Net financial items 0 -1 0
Pretax profit -14 -33 -10
Tax 0 5 2
Net profit -14 -28 -8
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -14 -28 -8
EPS -0,36 -0,71 -0,19
EPS Adj 0,34 0,35 0,88
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 -14,9 -22
Gross margin (%) 45,4 45,4 44,6
EBITDA margin (%) 4,4 3,4 6,2
EBITA margin (%) 3 1,7 4,2
EBIT margin (%) -3,4 -5,9 -1,2
Pretax margin (%) -3,3 -6 -1,2
Net margin (%) -3,3 -5,1 -1
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 115,2 28,5 41,1
EBITDA growth (%) 275,1 -3,1 160,7
EBIT growth (%) -10,5 -124,8 70,4
Net profit growth (%) -64,8 -99,4 73,3
EPS growth (%) 0 -99,4 73,3
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) -5,4 -7,3 -2
ROE Adj (%) 5,1 3,6 9,5
ROCE (%) -4,9 -7,9 -2,4
ROCE Adj(%) 4,6 2,1 8
ROIC (%) -8,9 -8,5 -2,1
ROIC Adj (%) -8,9 -8,5 -2,1
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 19 19 48
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 4,4 3,4 6,2
EBITDA lease Adj 19 19 48
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 4,4 3,4 6,2
EBITA Adj 13 10 33
EBITA Adj margin (%) 3 1,7 4,2
EBIT Adj -15 -33 -10
EBIT Adj margin (%) -3,4 -5,9 -1,2
Pretax profit Adj 13 9 33
Net profit Adj 13 14 35
Net profit to shareholders Adj 13 14 35
Net Adj margin (%) 3,1 2,5 4,5
NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA 19 19 48
Net financial items 0 -1 0
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 20 18 48
Change in WC -47 -50 -21
Operating cash flow -28 -32 28
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -12 -33 -25
Acquisitions and disposals -77 -20 0
Free cash flow -117 -85 3
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 147 0 0
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items -104 36 0
Balance Sheet (NOKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 170 152 129
Other intangible assets 79 82 71
Tangible fixed assets 1 1 1
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 0 4 6
Fixed assets 250 239 207
Inventories 82 96 91
Receivables 104 135 175
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 140 54 58
Total assets 577 525 531
Shareholders equity 401 374 366
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 401 374 366
Long-term debt 30 41 41
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 36 47 61
Other current liabilities 110 63 63
Total liabilities and equity 577 525 531
Net IB debt -110 -13 -16
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -110 -13 -16
Net IB debt excl. leasing -110 -13 -16
Capital invested 291 361 350
Working capital 40 122 143
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 541 541 541
Net IB debt Adj -110 -13 -16
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 431 528 525
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 112,2 100,6 148,2
Working capital / sales (%) 7,9 14,7 16,9
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) -27,4 -3,5 -4,5
Net debt / market cap (%) -7,4 -2,4 -3
Equity ratio (%) 69,6 71,2 69
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -27,4 -3,5 -4,5
Current ratio (%) 223,1 260,9 262,4
EBITDA / net interest (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -573,2 -69,8 -33,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -573,2 -69,8 -33,7
Interest cover (%) 0 0 0
NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
P/BVPS Adj 2,34 2,44 2,28
P/E Adj 40,3 38,9 15,4
EV/EBITDA Adj 22,5 28,4 10,8
EV/EBITA Adj 33 55,5 15,9
EV/EBIT Adj -29,7 -16,2 -54,2
EV/cap. employed 1 1,3 1,3
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 2,8 6 3,1
Capex / depreciation 199,1 370 158,9
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Shares outstanding adj. 40 40 40
Fully diluted shares Adj 40 40 40
EPS -0,36 -0,71 -0,19
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,34 0,35 0,88
BVPS 10,08 9,39 9,2
BVPS Adj 5,81 5,58 5,96
Net IB debt / share -2,8 -0,3 -0,4
Share price 37,45 13,6 13,6
Market cap. (m) 1490 541 541
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E -38,1 -19,1 -71,7
EV/sales 1 0,95 0,67
EV/EBITDA 22,5 28,4 10,8
EV/EBITA 33 55,5 15,9
EV/EBIT -29,7 -16,2 -54,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -21,6 -15,7 0,6
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -21,6 -15,7 0,6
P/BVPS 1,35 1,45 1,48
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Passesta AS 13.7 % 13.7 % 22 Jun 2022
Mk Capital AS 8.3 % 8.3 % 22 Jun 2022
Eden AS 5.6 % 5.6 % 22 Jun 2022
S. Munkhaugen AS 4.8 % 4.8 % 22 Jun 2022
MP Pensjon PK 4.6 % 4.6 % 22 Jun 2022
Harald Ulltveit-Moe 4.2 % 4.2 % 22 Jun 2022
Skattum Invest AS 2.8 % 2.8 % 22 Jun 2022
Fougner Invest AS 2.3 % 2.3 % 22 Jun 2022
Esmar AS 2.1 % 2.1 % 22 Jun 2022
Arepo AS 2.1 % 2.1 % 22 Jun 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB