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Tethys Oil

Tethys Oil

Oil and natural gas

Tethys Oil is an independent E&P company with its core operation in Oman. Tethys is a 30% partner on Blocks 3 & 4. It is also engaged in exploration activity on other blocks in Oman.

Continued production increase from blocks 3&4 in Oman is the main opportunity for Tethys Oil, where positive reserve revisions will be an important factor for sustainability. Further, Tethys Oil has balance sheet flexibility to engage in M&A activity or distribute to shareholders.

The main risks to the Tethys Oil investment case is oil price, USDSEK, continued production growth and reserve replacement. Tethys has a very strong production track record from Blocks 3&4 in Oman, a halt in production growth will be negative for the company. Also, being a “one asset play” is not favourable.

USDm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 9,8 1,8 25,6
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -1,2 -0,5 -1,1
Sales 114 165 145
Sales growth (%) 12,4 45,6 -12,3
EBITDA 58 107 88
EBITDA margin (%) 51,1 64,9 60,8
EBIT adj 17 70 48
EBIT adj margin (%) 14,9 42 33,3
Pretax profit 18 71 50
EPS rep 0,54 2,18 1,52
EPS growth (%) 436,3 307,7 -30,4
EPS adj 0,54 2,18 1,52
DPS 0,47 0,76 0,96
EV/EBITDA (x) 2,7 2 2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 9,2 3,2 3,7
P/E (x) 12,9 3,9 5,6
P/E adj (x) 12,9 3,9 5,6
EV/sales (x) 1,4 1,3 1,2
FCF yield (%) 9,8 1,8 25,6
Dividend yield (%) 6,9 8,9 11,3
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1,2 -0,5 -1,1
USDm 2021 2022e 2023e
Depreciation and amortisation -41 -38 -40
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
Sales 114 165 145
COGS -51 -57 -57
Gross profit 62 108 88
Other operating items -4 -1 0
EBITDA 58 107 88
Depreciation on tangibles -45 -37 -38
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 17 70 48
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 17 70 48
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 1 2 1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 18 71 50
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit 18 71 50
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 18 71 50
EPS 0,54 2,18 1,52
EPS Adj 0,54 2,18 1,52
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 0
Gross margin (%) 54,8 65,5 60,8
EBITDA margin (%) 51,1 64,9 60,8
EBITA margin (%) 14,9 42 33,3
EBIT margin (%) 14,9 42 33,3
Pretax margin (%) 15,4 43,1 34,3
Net margin (%) 15,4 43,1 34,3
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 12,4 45,6 -12,3
EBITDA growth (%) 15,5 84,8 -17,9
EBIT growth (%) 191,4 311,3 -30,5
Net profit growth (%) 430,3 307,9 -30,4
EPS growth (%) 436,3 307,7 -30,4
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) 6,8 25,5 15,9
ROE Adj (%) 6,8 25,5 15,9
ROCE (%) 7,2 25,5 15,9
ROCE Adj(%) 7,2 25,5 15,9
ROIC (%) 8,7 32,2 20,6
ROIC Adj (%) 8,7 32,2 20,6
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 58 107 88
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 51,1 64,9 60,8
EBITA Adj 17 70 48
EBITA Adj margin (%) 14,9 42 33,3
EBIT Adj 17 70 48
EBIT Adj margin (%) 14,9 42 33,3
Pretax profit Adj 18 71 50
Net profit Adj 18 71 50
Net profit to shareholders Adj 18 71 50
Net Adj margin (%) 15,4 43,1 34,3
EBITDA lease Adj 58 107 88
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 51,1 64,9 60,8
Leasing payments 0 0 0
USDm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 1 1 1
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 14 14 14
Net IB debt excl. leasing -70 -59 -99
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -120 -54,9 -112,4
EBITDA 58 107 88
Net financial items 1 2 1
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 59 109 90
Change in WC -1 -16 0
Operating cash flow 57 93 90
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -35 -88 -18
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 22 5 72
Dividend paid -16 -25 -31
Share issues and buybacks -1 0 0
Other non cash items 3 3 0
Decrease in net IB debt -21 8 -9
Balance Sheet (USDm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 205 254 232
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 206 255 233
Inventories 10 25 25
Receivables 0 0 0
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 69 58 98
Total assets 285 338 356
Shareholders equity 257 304 322
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 257 304 322
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 13 13 13
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 14 20 20
Total liabilities and equity 285 338 356
Net IB debt -70 -59 -99
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -70 -59 -99
Capital invested 187 245 223
Working capital -4 5 5
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 225 278 278
Net IB debt Adj -70 -59 -99
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 155 219 179
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 40,2 53,1 41,8
Capital invested turnover (%) 47,5 55,6 56,9
Capital employed turnover (%) 37,8 45,8 47,7
Inventories / sales (%) 10,7 7,6 6,7
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) -2,1 0,1 3,2
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) -27,2 -19,4 -30,7
Net debt / market cap (%) -30,9 -21,2 -35,6
Equity ratio (%) 90,2 89,9 90,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -27,2 -19,4 -30,7
Current ratio (%) 556,7 408,6 606,3
EBITDA / net interest (%) -9683,3 -5747,4 -6318,3
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -120 -54,9 -112,4
Interest cover (%) 1690,9 0 0
USDm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 9,8 1,8 25,6
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 33 33 33
EPS 0,54 2,18 1,52
Dividend per share Adj 0,5 0,8 1
EPS Adj 0,54 2,18 1,52
BVPS 7,87 9,33 9,9
BVPS Adj 7,87 9,33 9,9
Net IB debt / share -2,1 -1,8 -3
Share price 6,91 8,54 8,54
Market cap. (m) 225 278 278
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E 12,9 3,9 5,6
EV/sales 1,36 1,33 1,23
EV/EBITDA 2,7 2 2
EV/EBITA 9,2 3,2 3,7
EV/EBIT 9,2 3,2 3,7
Dividend yield (%) 6,9 8,9 11,3
FCF yield (%) 9,8 1,8 25,6
P/BVPS 0,87 0,91 0,86
P/BVPS Adj 0,87 0,91 0,86
P/E Adj 12,9 3,9 5,6
EV/EBITDA Adj 2,7 2 2
EV/EBITA Adj 9,2 3,2 3,7
EV/EBIT Adj 9,2 3,2 3,7
EV/cap. employed 0,6 0,7 0,6
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 31,1 53,3 12,4
Capex / depreciation 85,7 232,9 45,2
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 17,2 34,6 7,7
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 20,1 14,9 17,1

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Media

Tethys Oil - Company presentation with CFO Petter Hjertstedt
Tethys Oil - Company presentation with CFO Petter Hjertstedt

Main shareholders - Tethys Oil

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Lansdowne Partners 11.0 % 11.0 % 28 Feb 2022
Magnus Nordin 4.7 % 4.7 % 30 Apr 2022
Avanza Pension 4.0 % 4.0 % 30 Apr 2022
Liontrust 3.3 % 3.3 % 31 Mar 2022
Adage Capital Management 3.2 % 3.2 % 28 Feb 2022
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 2.4 % 2.4 % 30 Apr 2022
Carl Erik Norman 2.2 % 2.2 % 30 Apr 2022
Dimensional Fund Advisors 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Mar 2022
Jan Risberg 1.9 % 1.9 % 28 Feb 2022
Tethys Oil AB 1.4 % 1.4 % 30 Apr 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Tethys Oil

Name Quantity Code Date
Fredrik Robelius + 1 035 BUY 23 Aug 2021
Fredrik Robelius + 50 000 BUY 14 Jun 2021
Magnus, Petter, Kelsey Nordin, Hjertstedt, Emms - 200 000 SELL 11 Jun 2021
Petter Hjertstedt + 50 000 ALTM 11 Jun 2021
Magnus Nordin - 830 000 SELL 7 Jun 2021
Kelsey, Magnus, Petter Emms, Nordin, Hjertstedt + 200 000 SUBS 28 May 2021
Fredrik Robelius + 36 BUY 16 Nov 2020
Petter Hjertstedt + 1 000 BUY 21 Sep 2020
Fredrik Robelius + 2 000 BUY 17 Sep 2020
Klas Brand + 2 000 BUY 13 Aug 2020

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