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Tethys Oil

Tethys Oil

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Oil and natural gas

Tethys Oil is an independent E&P company with its core operation in Oman. Tethys is a 30% partner on Blocks 3 & 4. It is also engaged in exploration activity on other blocks in Oman.

The main risks to the Tethys Oil investment case is oil price, USDSEK, continued production growth and reserve replacement. Tethys has a very strong production track record from Blocks 3&4 in Oman, a halt in production growth will be negative for the company. Also, being a “one asset play” is not favourable.

Financials

USDm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 157 156 153
Sales growth (%) 38,9 -0,2 -2
EBITDA 95 95 96
EBITDA margin (%) 60,5 60,5 62,7
EBIT adj. 54 53 56
EBIT adj. margin (%) 34,6 33,8 36,4
Pretax profit 59 53 56
EPS 1,78 1,66 1,75
EPS growth (%) 250,9 -7,1 5,5
EPS adj. 1,78 1,66 1,75
DPS 1,04 0,5 0,69
EV/EBITDA (x) 1,3 1,4 1,1
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 2,3 2,6 2
P/E (x) 2,8 3,1 2,9
P/E adj. (x) 2,8 3,1 2,9
EV/sales (x) 0,79 0,87 0,72
FCF yield (%) -1,5 2,8 29,2
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -1,5 2,8 29,2
Dividend yield (%) 20,5 9,7 13,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -0,4 -0,3 -0,6
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 0,4 0,3 0,6
USDm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 157 156 153
COGS -57 -62 -57
Gross profit 99 95 96
Other operating items -4 0 0
EBITDA 95 95 96
Depreciation and amortisation -41 -42 -40
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 54 53 56
EO Items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 54 53 56
Net financial items 5 1 1
Pretax profit 59 53 56
Tax -1 0 0
Net profit 58 53 56
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 58 53 56
EPS 1,78 1,66 1,75
EPS adj. 1,78 1,66 1,75
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 1 0 0
Gross margin (%) 63,3 60,5 62,7
EBITDA margin (%) 60,5 60,5 62,7
EBITA margin (%) 34,6 33,8 36,4
EBIT margin (%) 34,6 33,8 36,4
Pre-tax margin (%) 37,4 34,2 36,8
Net margin (%) 37,1 34,2 36,8
Sales growth (%) 38,9 -0,2 -2
EBITDA growth (%) 65,6 -0,2 1,5
EBITA growth (%) 238,1 -2,6 5,6
EBIT growth (%) N/A -2,6 5,6
Net profit growth (%) 249,4 -7,9 5,5
EPS growth (%) 250,9 -7,1 5,5
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) 21,4 17,6 16,7
ROE adj. (%) 21,4 17,6 16,7
ROCE (%) 22,1 17,6 16,7
ROCE adj. (%) 22,1 17,6 16,7
ROIC (%) 24,9 19,7 18,8
ROIC adj. (%) 24,9 19,7 18,8
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 95 95 96
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 60,5 60,5 62,7
EBITDA lease adj. 95 95 96
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 60,5 60,5 62,7
EBITA adj. 54 53 56
EBITA adj. margin (%) 34,6 33,8 36,4
EBIT adj. 54 53 56
EBIT adj. margin (%) 34,6 33,8 36,4
Pretax profit Adj. 59 53 56
Net profit Adj. 58 53 56
Net profit to shareholders adj. 58 53 56
Net adj. margin (%) 37,1 34,2 36,8
USDm 2022 2023e 2024e
EBITDA 95 95 96
Goodwill N/A N/A N/A
Net financial items 5 1 1
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Paid tax -1 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 246 297 305
Non-cash items -4 0 0
Right-of-use asset N/A N/A N/A
Cash flow before change in WC 95 95 97
Total other fixed assets 1 1 1
Change in working capital -8 1 0
Fixed assets 247 297 306
Operating cash flow 87 97 97
Inventories 28 25 25
Capex tangible fixed assets -89 -92 -49
Receivables N/A N/A N/A
Capex intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 42 28 54
Free cash flow -2 5 48
Total assets 316 351 385
Dividend paid -34 -16 -22
Shareholders equity 285 321 355
Minority N/A N/A N/A
Share issues and buybacks -18 -2 0
Total equity 285 321 355
Leasing liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non-cash items 29 0 0
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 11 11 11
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 20 19 19
Total liabilities and equity 316 351 385
Net IB debt -42 -29 -54
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -42 -29 -54
Net IB debt excl. leasing -42 -29 -54
Capital employed 285 321 355
Capital invested 243 292 301
Working capital 8 7 7
Market cap. diluted (m) 165 164 164
Net IB debt adj. -42 -29 -54
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 123 135 110
Total assets turnover (%) 52,1 46,8 41,6
Working capital/sales (%) 1,2 4,7 4,4
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -14,8 -8,9 -15,2
Net debt / market cap (%) -25,6 -17,5 -33
Equity ratio (%) 90,3 91,5 92,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -14,8 -8,9 -15,2
Current ratio 3,53 2,87 4,24
EBITDA/net interest 21 131,6 131,9
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -0,4 -0,3 -0,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -0,4 -0,3 -0,6
Interest coverage 46,1 N/A N/A
USDm 2022 2023e 2024e
Shares outstanding adj. 33 32 32
Diluted shares adj. 33 32 32
EPS 1,78 1,66 1,75
Dividend per share 1,04 0,5 0,69
EPS adj. 1,78 1,66 1,75
BVPS 8,77 9,95 11
BVPS adj. 8,77 9,95 11
Net IB debt/share -1,3 -0,89 -1,68
Share price 51,7 51,7 51,7
Market cap. (m) 165 164 164
P/E (x) 2,8 3,1 2,9
EV/sales (x) 0,79 0,87 0,72
EV/EBITDA (x) 1,3 1,4 1,1
EV/EBITA (x) 2,3 2,6 2
EV/EBIT (x) 2,3 2,6 2
Dividend yield (%) 20,5 9,7 13,6
FCF yield (%) -1,5 2,8 29,2
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -1,5 2,8 29,2
P/BVPS (x) 0,58 0,51 0,46
P/BVPS adj. (x) 0,58 0,51 0,46
P/E adj. (x) 2,8 3,1 2,9
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 1,3 1,4 1,1
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 2,3 2,6 2
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 2,3 2,6 2
EV/CE (x) 0,4 0,4 0,3
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 56,9 59,1 32
Capex/depreciation 2,2 2,2 1,2
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 36,2 31,1 16
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 16,5 14,1 13,21

Equity research

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Media

Tethys Oil - Company presentation with IR Stefan Pedersen
Tethys Oil - Company presentation with CEO Magnus Nordin

Main shareholders - Tethys Oil

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Lansdowne Partners 11.0 % 11.0 % 27 Apr 2023
Avanza Pension 5.1 % 5.1 % 29 May 2023
Magnus Nordin 4.7 % 4.7 % 29 May 2023
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 4.1 % 4.1 % 29 May 2023
Dimensional Fund Advisors 3.5 % 3.5 % 31 May 2023
Tethys Oil AB 3.5 % 3.5 % 5 Jun 2023
Liontrust 3.0 % 3.0 % 30 Apr 2023
Carl Erik Norman 2.1 % 2.1 % 29 May 2023
Jan Risberg 1.9 % 1.9 % 26 Apr 2023
Daniel Hägerlöf 1.6 % 1.6 % 29 May 2023
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Tethys Oil

Name Quantity Code Date
Fredrik Robelius + 1 035 BUY 23 Aug 2021
Fredrik Robelius + 50 000 BUY 14 Jun 2021
Magnus, Petter, Kelsey Nordin, Hjertstedt, Emms - 200 000 SELL 11 Jun 2021
Petter Hjertstedt + 50 000 ALTM 11 Jun 2021
Magnus Nordin - 830 000 SELL 7 Jun 2021
Kelsey, Magnus, Petter Emms, Nordin, Hjertstedt + 200 000 SUBS 28 May 2021
Fredrik Robelius + 36 BUY 16 Nov 2020
Petter Hjertstedt + 1 000 BUY 21 Sep 2020
Fredrik Robelius + 2 000 BUY 17 Sep 2020
Klas Brand + 2 000 BUY 13 Aug 2020

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