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Tethys Oil

Tethys Oil

Oil and natural gas

Tethys Oil is an independent E&P company with its core operation in Oman. Tethys is a 30% partner on Blocks 3 & 4. It is also engaged in exploration activity on other blocks in Oman.

The main risks to the Tethys Oil investment case is oil price, USDSEK, continued production growth and reserve replacement. Tethys has a very strong production track record from Blocks 3&4 in Oman, a halt in production growth will be negative for the company. Also, being a “one asset play” is not favourable.

USDm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 9,8 0 25
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -1,2 -0,5 -0,7
Sales 114 151 144
Sales growth (%) 12,4 33,1 -5,1
EBITDA 58 94 91
EBITDA margin (%) 51,1 62,3 63,5
EBIT adj 17 55 54
EBIT adj margin (%) 14,9 36,6 37,9
Pretax profit 18 61 55
EPS rep 0,54 1,88 1,7
EPS growth (%) 436,3 250,3 -9,6
EPS adj 0,54 1,88 1,7
DPS 0,47 0,2 0,96
EV/EBITDA (x) 2,7 1,5 1,4
EV/EBIT adj (x) 9,2 2,5 2,3
P/E (x) 12,9 3,1 3,4
P/E adj (x) 12,9 3,1 3,4
EV/sales (x) 1,4 0,9 0,9
FCF yield (%) 9,8 0 25
Dividend yield (%) 6,9 3,5 16,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1,2 -0,5 -0,7
USDm 2021 2022e 2023e
Depreciation and amortisation -41 -39 -37
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
Sales 114 151 144
COGS -51 -56 -52
Gross profit 62 95 91
Other operating items -4 -1 0
EBITDA 58 94 91
Depreciation on tangibles -45 -37 -38
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 17 55 54
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 17 55 54
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 1 6 1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 18 61 55
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit 18 61 55
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 18 61 55
EPS 0,54 1,88 1,7
EPS Adj 0,54 1,88 1,7
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 0
Gross margin (%) 54,8 63 63,5
EBITDA margin (%) 51,1 62,3 63,5
EBITA margin (%) 14,9 36,6 37,9
EBIT margin (%) 14,9 36,6 37,9
Pretax margin (%) 15,4 40,5 38,6
Net margin (%) 15,4 40,5 38,6
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 12,4 33,1 -5,1
EBITDA growth (%) 15,5 62,1 -3,2
EBIT growth (%) 191,4 227,2 -1,5
Net profit growth (%) 430,3 250,4 -9,6
EPS growth (%) 436,3 250,3 -9,6
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) 6,8 22,5 18,5
ROE Adj (%) 6,8 22,5 18,5
ROCE (%) 7,2 22,5 18,5
ROCE Adj(%) 7,2 22,5 18,5
ROIC (%) 8,7 25,9 22,3
ROIC Adj (%) 8,7 25,9 22,3
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 58 94 91
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 51,1 62,3 63,5
EBITA Adj 17 55 54
EBITA Adj margin (%) 14,9 36,6 37,9
EBIT Adj 17 55 54
EBIT Adj margin (%) 14,9 36,6 37,9
Pretax profit Adj 18 61 55
Net profit Adj 18 61 55
Net profit to shareholders Adj 18 61 55
Net Adj margin (%) 15,4 40,5 38,6
EBITDA lease Adj 58 94 91
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 51,1 62,3 63,5
Leasing payments 0 0 0
USDm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 1 1 1
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 14 14 14
Net IB debt excl. leasing -70 -48 -64
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -120 -51,1 -70,1
EBITDA 58 94 91
Net financial items 1 6 1
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 59 100 92
Change in WC -1 -16 0
Operating cash flow 57 84 92
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -35 -84 -45
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 22 0 47
Dividend paid -16 -7 -31
Share issues and buybacks -1 -17 0
Other non cash items 3 1 0
Decrease in net IB debt -21 8 -9
Balance Sheet (USDm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 205 249 258
Other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 206 250 258
Inventories 10 20 20
Receivables 0 0 0
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 69 48 63
Total assets 285 317 341
Shareholders equity 257 288 312
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 257 288 312
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 13 13 13
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 14 15 15
Total liabilities and equity 285 317 341
Net IB debt -70 -48 -64
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -70 -48 -64
Capital invested 187 240 248
Working capital -4 5 5
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 225 188 188
Net IB debt Adj -70 -48 -64
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 155 140 124
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 40,2 50,3 43,6
Capital invested turnover (%) 47,5 55,6 56,9
Capital employed turnover (%) 37,8 45,8 47,7
Inventories / sales (%) 10,7 7,6 6,7
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 0 0 0
Working capital / sales (%) -2,1 0,3 3,5
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) -27,2 -16,7 -20,5
Net debt / market cap (%) -30,9 -25,6 -34
Equity ratio (%) 90,2 91 91,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -27,2 -16,7 -20,5
Current ratio (%) 556,7 462,4 571,2
EBITDA / net interest (%) -9683,3 -1566,6 -9176,4
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -120 -51,1 -70,1
Interest cover (%) 1690,9 0 0
USDm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 9,8 0 25
Shares outstanding adj. 33 33 33
Fully diluted shares Adj 33 33 33
EPS 0,54 1,88 1,7
Dividend per share Adj 0,5 0,2 1
EPS Adj 0,54 1,88 1,7
BVPS 7,87 8,85 9,59
BVPS Adj 7,87 8,85 9,59
Net IB debt / share -2,1 -1,5 -2
Share price 6,91 5,77 5,77
Market cap. (m) 225 188 188
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E 12,9 3,1 3,4
EV/sales 1,36 0,92 0,86
EV/EBITDA 2,7 1,5 1,4
EV/EBITA 9,2 2,5 2,3
EV/EBIT 9,2 2,5 2,3
Dividend yield (%) 6,9 3,5 16,7
FCF yield (%) 9,8 0 25
P/BVPS 0,87 0,65 0,6
P/BVPS Adj 0,87 0,65 0,6
P/E Adj 12,9 3,1 3,4
EV/EBITDA Adj 2,7 1,5 1,4
EV/EBITA Adj 9,2 2,5 2,3
EV/EBIT Adj 9,2 2,5 2,3
EV/cap. employed 0,6 0,5 0,4
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 31,1 55,7 31,3
Capex / depreciation 85,7 216,8 122,5
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 17,2 33,8 17,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 20,1 15,6 14,3

Equity research

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Media

Tethys Oil - Company presentation with CEO Magnus Nordin
Tethys Oil - Company presentation with CFO Petter Hjertstedt

Main shareholders - Tethys Oil

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Lansdowne Partners 11.0 % 11.0 % 6 May 2022
Avanza Pension 4.8 % 4.8 % 28 Nov 2022
Magnus Nordin 4.7 % 4.7 % 28 Nov 2022
Liontrust 3.3 % 3.3 % 31 Oct 2022
Dimensional Fund Advisors 2.7 % 2.7 % 31 Oct 2022
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 2.6 % 2.6 % 28 Nov 2022
Adage Capital Management 2.5 % 2.5 % 6 May 2022
Carl Erik Norman 2.2 % 2.2 % 28 Nov 2022
Tethys Oil AB 2.0 % 2.0 % 6 Dec 2022
Jan Risberg 1.9 % 1.9 % 28 Nov 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Tethys Oil

Name Quantity Code Date
Fredrik Robelius + 1 035 BUY 23 Aug 2021
Fredrik Robelius + 50 000 BUY 14 Jun 2021
Magnus, Petter, Kelsey Nordin, Hjertstedt, Emms - 200 000 SELL 11 Jun 2021
Petter Hjertstedt + 50 000 ALTM 11 Jun 2021
Magnus Nordin - 830 000 SELL 7 Jun 2021
Kelsey, Magnus, Petter Emms, Nordin, Hjertstedt + 200 000 SUBS 28 May 2021
Fredrik Robelius + 36 BUY 16 Nov 2020
Petter Hjertstedt + 1 000 BUY 21 Sep 2020
Fredrik Robelius + 2 000 BUY 17 Sep 2020
Klas Brand + 2 000 BUY 13 Aug 2020

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