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Rottneros

Rottneros

Rottneros is a pure-play pulp producer. It produces mechanical and chemical pulp for use in a wide range of applications. The majority of the group’s products are sold on the European market, which accounts for about 72% of the group’s revenues. Rottneros has also initiated the development of a new business area, Rottneros Packaging, where it produces moulded fibre trays for food packaging and special applications.

The largest share of Rottneros’ profits comes from the sale of pulp, which is a highly commoditised product. As a result, demand for the group’s products is cyclical and depends on the global economic cycle. It also means that the group’s earnings are highly sensitive to changes in the market price of pulp, as well the prices of its input factors: pulp wood, electricity and chemicals. Rottneros’ earnings are also sensitive to currency fluctuations, particularly in USD/SEK and EUR/SEK.

SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 2303 2931 2501
Sales growth (%) 11,1 27,3 -14,7
EBITDA 385 663 356
EBITDA margin (%) 16,7 22,6 14,3
EBIT adj 267 537 232
EBIT adj margin (%) 11,6 18,3 9,3
Pretax profit 247 533 226
EPS rep 1,3 2,75 1,15
EPS growth (%) 506,1 110,9 -58,1
EPS adj 1,3 2,75 1,15
DPS 0,6 1,1 0,58
EV/EBITDA (x) 4,1 2,9 5,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 5,9 3,6 8,1
P/E (x) 8 5,6 13,3
P/E adj (x) 8 5,6 13,3
EV/sales (x) 0,7 0,7 0,7
FCF yield (%) 10,4 20,5 9,8
Dividend yield (%) 5,8 7,2 3,8
Net IB debt/EBITDA 0 -0,6 -1,3
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 10,4 20,5 9,8
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 0 -0,6 -1,3
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 2303 2931 2501
COGS -1125 -1409 -1270
Gross profit 1178 1522 1231
Other operating items -793 -860 -875
EBITDA 385 663 356
Depreciation and amortisation -118 -125 -125
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 267 537 232
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 267 537 232
Net financial items -20 -4 -6
Pretax profit 247 533 226
Tax -48 -114 -50
Net profit 199 420 176
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 199 420 176
EPS 1,3 2,75 1,15
EPS Adj 1,3 2,75 1,15
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -19,4 -21,3 -22
Gross margin (%) 51,2 51,9 49,2
EBITDA margin (%) 16,7 22,6 14,3
EBITA margin (%) 11,6 18,3 9,3
EBIT margin (%) 11,6 18,3 9,3
Pretax margin (%) 10,7 18,2 9
Net margin (%) 8,6 14,3 7
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 11,1 27,3 -14,7
EBITDA growth (%) 393,6 72,1 -46,2
EBIT growth (%) 751,2 101,3 -56,9
Net profit growth (%) 506,1 110,9 -58,1
EPS growth (%) 506,1 110,9 -58,1
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) 14,1 22,2 7,8
ROE Adj (%) 14,1 22,2 7,8
ROCE (%) 15,9 26,5 9,7
ROCE Adj(%) 15,9 26,5 9,7
ROIC (%) 14,9 25,2 9,9
ROIC Adj (%) 14,9 25,2 9,9
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 385 663 356
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 16,7 22,6 14,3
EBITDA lease Adj 385 663 356
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 16,7 22,6 14,3
EBITA Adj 267 537 232
EBITA Adj margin (%) 11,6 18,3 9,3
EBIT Adj 267 537 232
EBIT Adj margin (%) 11,6 18,3 9,3
Pretax profit Adj 247 533 226
Net profit Adj 199 420 176
Net profit to shareholders Adj 199 420 176
Net Adj margin (%) 8,6 14,3 7
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 207 309 309
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 503 739 509
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 2382 3427 3204
Net IB debt -16 -404 -466
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -16 -404 -466
Net IB debt excl. leasing -16 -404 -466
Capital invested 1511 1847 1793
Working capital 379 437 413
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 1590 2334 2334
Net IB debt Adj -16 -404 -466
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1574 1930 1869
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 99,3 100,9 75,4
Working capital / sales (%) 13,6 13,9 17
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) -1 -18 -20,6
Net debt / market cap (%) -1,1 -17,3 -19,9
Equity ratio (%) 64,1 65,7 70,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -1 -18 -20,6
Current ratio (%) 207,4 231 298
EBITDA / net interest (%) 1925 16568,8 5940
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -4,2 -61 -130,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -4,2 -61 -130,7
Interest cover (%) 1222,7 13435,5 3859,1
EBITDA 385 663 356
Net financial items -20 -4 -6
Paid tax -42 -60 -50
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 323 599 301
Change in WC -35 -25 24
Operating cash flow 288 574 324
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -123 -95 -95
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 165 479 229
Dividend paid -68 -91 -168
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items -57 -102 0
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 25 23 23
Tangible fixed assets 1213 1186 1156
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 101 510 510
Fixed assets 1339 1719 1689
Inventories 327 456 314
Receivables 555 720 608
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 161 532 594
Total assets 2382 3427 3204
Shareholders equity 1527 2251 2259
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1527 2251 2259
Long-term debt 145 128 128
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Shares outstanding adj. 153 153 153
Fully diluted shares Adj 153 153 153
EPS 1,3 2,75 1,15
Dividend per share Adj 0,6 1,1 0,6
EPS Adj 1,3 2,75 1,15
BVPS 10,01 14,75 14,8
BVPS Adj 10,01 14,75 14,8
Net IB debt / share -0,1 -2,6 -3,1
Share price 9,77 15,3 15,3
Market cap. (m) 1490 2334 2334
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E 8 5,6 13,3
EV/sales 0,68 0,66 0,75
EV/EBITDA 4,1 2,9 5,2
EV/EBITA 5,9 3,6 8,1
EV/EBIT 5,9 3,6 8,1
Dividend yield (%) 5,8 7,2 3,8
FCF yield (%) 10,4 20,5 9,8
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 10,4 20,5 9,8
P/BVPS 1,04 1,04 1,03
P/BVPS Adj 1,04 1,04 1,03
P/E Adj 8 5,6 13,3
EV/EBITDA Adj 4,1 2,9 5,2
EV/EBITA Adj 5,9 3,6 8,1
EV/EBIT Adj 5,9 3,6 8,1
EV/cap. employed 0,9 0,8 0,8
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 5,3 3,2 3,8
Capex / depreciation 104,2 75,8 76,1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 10,1 8 8,2
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 9,7 10,6 10,8

Equity research

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Media

Rottneros - Company presentation with President & CEO Lennart Eberleh
Rottneros - Company presentation with CFO Monica Pasanen

Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Arctic Paper SA 51.0 % 51.0 % 28 Jun 2022
Stefan Sundh 7.5 % 7.5 % 28 Jun 2022
Dimensional Fund Advisors 1.9 % 1.9 % 30 Jun 2022
Avanza Pension 1.4 % 1.4 % 28 Jun 2022
Söderberg & Partners Asset Management SA 1.4 % 1.4 % 31 Jul 2022
KBC Asset Management 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Dec 2021
Magallanes Value Investors SGIIC 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Jul 2022
Rottneros AB 0.5 % 0.5 % 28 Jun 2022
SEB Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 30 Jun 2022
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 31 Jul 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list -

Name Quantity Code Date
Lennart Eberleh + 6 267 BUY 5 Feb 2021
Kasper Skuthälla + 12 500 BUY 14 Dec 2020
Lennart Eberleh - 267 SELL 18 Nov 2020
Ingemar Eliasson + 12 365 BUY 29 Oct 2020
Ingemar Eliasson + 2 635 BUY 28 Oct 2020
Monica Still Pasanen + 2 500 BUY 26 Oct 2020
Monica Still Pasanen + 7 500 BUY 26 Oct 2020
Kasper Skuthälla + 30 000 BUY 23 Oct 2020
Ola Thomasson + 10 000 BUY 29 Jul 2020
Lennart Eberleh + 335 BUY 24 Jul 2020

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