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Q-Free

Q-Free

Q-Free is a leading global supplier of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). The company operates in 15 different geographical markets and its operations are divided into tolling and traffic management. In the tolling segment, Q-Free provides hardware, software and services solutions for electronic toll collection (ETC). In the Traffic Management segment, Q-Free provides technology for the planning and control of traffic, including solutions for traffic signalling, software for inter-urban traffic management, as well as traffic counting and classification systems.

Q-Free operates in a market with competing technologies. While the company’s technology is currently established as a leading technology, new ones could emerge in the future. Note, however, that new technologies, such as satellite, would most likely be adopted in combination with an already established technology and that Q-Free’s technology in this case is expected to be used as an enforcement mechanism. Furthermore, Q-Free expects to deliver improved margins going forward, driven by an increased focus on ARR and investments in S&M. If most customers prefer upfront payments, this could affect margin expansion going forward.

NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 860 950 1023
Sales growth (%) -3,3 10,5 7,7
EBITDA 106 108 136
EBITDA margin (%) 12,3 11,4 13,3
EBIT adj 50 54 76
EBIT adj margin (%) 5,8 5,7 7,4
Pretax profit 40 40 61
EPS rep 0,53 0,27 0,43
EPS growth (%) 214,7 -49,5 62
EPS adj 0,53 0,27 0,43
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 10 8,6 6,6
EV/EBIT adj (x) 20,9 17,1 11,9
P/E (x) 15,6 26,9 16,6
P/E adj (x) 15,6 26,9 16,6
EV/sales (x) 1,2 1 0,9
FCF yield (%) 5,7 4,2 7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 1,3 1,2 0,7
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 5,7 4,2 7
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 1,3 1,2 0,7
NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITA margin (%) 5,8 5,7 7,4
EBIT margin (%) 5,8 5,7 7,4
Pretax margin (%) 4,6 4,2 6
Net margin (%) 6,8 3,1 4,7
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) -3,3 10,5 7,7
EBITDA growth (%) 39,4 2,3 25,5
EBIT growth (%) 670,9 8,3 38,7
Net profit growth (%) 243 -49,5 62
EPS growth (%) 214,7 -49,5 62
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) 15,4 6,5 9,8
ROE Adj (%) 15,4 6,5 9,8
ROCE (%) 12,2 9,5 12,9
ROCE Adj(%) 12,2 9,5 12,9
ROIC (%) 13,2 6,8 9,7
ROIC Adj (%) 13,2 6,8 9,7
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 106 108 136
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 12,3 11,4 13,3
EBITDA lease Adj 106 108 136
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 12,3 11,4 13,3
EBITA Adj 50 54 76
EBITA Adj margin (%) 5,8 5,7 7,4
EBIT Adj 50 54 76
EBIT Adj margin (%) 5,8 5,7 7,4
Pretax profit Adj 40 40 61
Net profit Adj 59 30 48
Net profit to shareholders Adj 59 30 48
Net Adj margin (%) 6,8 3,1 4,7
Sales 860 950 1023
COGS -310 -379 -406
Gross profit 550 571 616
Other operating items -444 -463 -481
EBITDA 106 108 136
Depreciation and amortisation -55 -54 -60
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 50 54 76
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 50 54 76
Net financial items -11 -15 -14
Pretax profit 40 40 61
Tax 19 -10 -14
Net profit 59 30 48
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 59 30 48
EPS 0,53 0,27 0,43
EPS Adj 0,53 0,27 0,43
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 48,2 -25,6 -22
Gross margin (%) 64 60,1 60,3
EBITDA margin (%) 12,3 11,4 13,3
NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA 106 108 136
Net financial items -11 -15 -14
Paid tax -3 -11 -16
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 92 82 106
Change in WC -5 -1 -2
Operating cash flow 88 81 104
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -6 -6 -6
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -31 -43 -43
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 52 33 56
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items 24 1 -22
Balance Sheet (NOKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 288 283 283
Other intangible assets 135 149 153
Tangible fixed assets 90 75 61
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 7 7 7
Fixed assets 520 513 503
Inventories 86 113 120
Receivables 234 249 293
Other current assets 26 31 36
Cash and liquid assets 82 84 114
Total assets 948 990 1067
Shareholders equity 448 467 515
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 448 467 515
Long-term debt 202 196 196
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 55 31 6
Short-term debt 19 19 19
Accounts payable 79 90 110
Other current liabilities 146 188 221
Total liabilities and equity 948 990 1067
Net IB debt 139 132 101
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 139 132 101
Net IB debt excl. leasing 139 132 101
Capital invested 586 598 615
Working capital 121 116 118
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 914 798 798
Net IB debt Adj 139 132 101
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1053 929 898
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 95,7 98,1 99,5
Working capital / sales (%) 15,6 12,5 11,4
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) 30,9 28,2 19,6
Net debt / market cap (%) 15,4 16,5 12,6
Equity ratio (%) 47,2 47,1 48,2
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 30,9 28,2 19,6
Current ratio (%) 175,5 160,8 161
EBITDA / net interest (%) 986,8 736,3 965,9
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 131,2 121,8 74,3
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 131,2 121,8 74,3
Interest cover (%) 201,8 262,4 310,2
NOKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Shares outstanding adj. 111 111 111
Fully diluted shares Adj 111 111 111
EPS 0,53 0,27 0,43
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,53 0,27 0,43
BVPS 4,02 4,2 4,63
BVPS Adj 0,66 0,74 1,15
Net IB debt / share 1,2 1,2 0,9
Share price 8,09 7,17 7,17
Market cap. (m) 900 798 798
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E 15,6 26,9 16,6
EV/sales 1,22 0,98 0,88
EV/EBITDA 10 8,6 6,6
EV/EBITA 20,9 17,1 11,9
EV/EBIT 20,9 17,1 11,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 5,7 4,2 7
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 5,7 4,2 7
P/BVPS 2,04 1,71 1,55
P/BVPS Adj 12,46 9,63 6,21
P/E Adj 15,6 26,9 16,6
EV/EBITDA Adj 10 8,6 6,6
EV/EBITA Adj 20,9 17,1 11,9
EV/EBIT Adj 20,9 17,1 11,9
EV/cap. employed 1,6 1,4 1,2
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 4,2 5,1 4,7
Capex / depreciation 65,1 90,2 80,7
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 6,1 7,4 9,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 35,3 42,6 41,6
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 64 53,3 58,4
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

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