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Probi

Probi

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in three geographical segments – Americas, EMEA and APAC.

Sustainability information

We note several risk factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk, currency risk and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a number of key customers that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 628 658 704
Sales growth (%) 1,5 4,8 7
EBITDA 108 115 139
EBITDA margin (%) 17,1 17,5 19,8
EBIT adj. 11 11 34
EBIT adj. margin (%) 1,8 1,6 4,9
Pretax profit 17 16 34
EPS 1,47 1,18 2,55
EPS growth (%) -58,7 -19,8 N/A
EPS adj. 5,66 5,36 6,73
DPS 1,3 1,5 1,94
EV/EBITDA (x) 27,7 26,3 21,4
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 263,1 287,1 87
P/E (x) 198,3 247,3 114,4
P/E adj. (x) 51,6 54,5 43,4
EV/sales (x) 4,74 4,59 4,24
FCF yield (%) 0,9 0,8 2,1
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 0,5 0,3 1,6
Dividend yield (%) 0,4 0,5 0,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -2,6 -2,1 -2
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) -3,6 -3,3 -2,9
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 628 658 704
COGS -407 -437 -449
Gross profit 220 221 255
Other operating items -113 -106 -116
EBITDA 108 115 139
Depreciation and amortisation -49 -57 -57
of which leasing depreciation -15 -15 -16
EBITA 59 58 82
EO Items N/A N/A N/A
Impairment and PPA amortisation -48 -48 -48
EBIT 11 11 34
Net financial items 6 5 0
Pretax profit 17 16 34
Tax -1 -2 -5
Net profit 17 13 29
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 17 13 29
EPS 1,47 1,18 2,55
EPS adj. 5,66 5,36 6,73
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments -15 -17 -16
Tax rate (%) 3,2 14,4 14,4
Gross margin (%) 35,1 33,7 36,2
EBITDA margin (%) 17,1 17,5 19,8
EBITA margin (%) 9,4 8,8 11,6
EBIT margin (%) 1,8 1,6 4,9
Pre-tax margin (%) 2,8 2,4 4,8
Net margin (%) 2,7 2 4,1
Growth Rates y-o-y N/A N/A N/A
Sales growth (%) 1,5 4,8 7
EBITDA growth (%) -21,1 6,9 21,1
EBITA growth (%) -38,6 -1,5 40,9
EBIT growth (%) -77,6 -7,1 N/A
Net profit growth (%) -58,7 -19,8 116,1
EPS growth (%) -58,7 -19,8 N/A
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) 1,2 1 2
ROE adj. (%) 4,6 4,4 5,4
ROCE (%) 1,3 1,2 2,4
ROCE adj. (%) 4,6 4,5 5,5
ROIC (%) 5,1 4,4 6
ROIC adj. (%) 5,1 4,4 6
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 108 115 139
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 17,1 17,5 19,8
EBITDA lease adj. 92 98 124
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 14,7 14,9 17,6
EBITA adj. 59 58 82
EBITA adj. margin (%) 9,4 8,8 11,6
EBIT adj. 11 11 34
EBIT adj. margin (%) 1,8 1,6 4,9
Pretax profit Adj. 65 63 82
Net profit Adj. 64 61 77
Net profit to shareholders adj. 64 61 77
Net adj. margin (%) 10,3 9,3 10,9
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
EBITDA 108 115 139
Goodwill 341 360 360
Net financial items 6 5 0
Other intangible assets 340 324 292
Paid tax -1 -2 -5
Tangible fixed assets 146 149 147
Non-cash items -26 -1 0
Right-of-use asset 49 83 83
Cash flow before change in WC 87 117 134
Total other fixed assets 74 82 82
Change in working capital -2 -40 -11
Fixed assets 950 999 964
Operating cash flow 86 77 123
Inventories 117 128 131
Capex tangible fixed assets -33 -29 -31
Receivables 80 118 126
Capex intangible fixed assets -21 -23 -24
Other current assets 14 17 17
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 330 325 361
Free cash flow 31 25 68
Total assets 1490 1586 1599
Dividend paid -15 -15 -17
Shareholders equity 1369 1419 1431
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability amortisation -15 -17 -16
Total equity 1369 1419 1431
Other non-cash items 35 -33 0
Long-term debt N/A N/A N/A
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 54 89 89
Total other long-term liabilities 5 6 6
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 34 38 39
Other current liabilities 28 35 35
Total liabilities and equity 1490 1586 1599
Net IB debt -276 -237 -272
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -276 -237 -272
Net IB debt excl. leasing -330 -325 -361
Capital employed 1423 1507 1519
Capital invested 1093 1182 1158
Working capital 148 189 200
EV breakdown N/A N/A N/A
Market cap. diluted (m) 3327 3327 3327
Net IB debt adj. -276 -237 -272
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -73 -71 -71
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 2978 3019 2983
Total assets turnover (%) 41 42,8 44,2
Working capital/sales (%) 23,5 25,6 27,6
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -20,1 -16,7 -19
Net debt / market cap (%) -8,3 -7,1 -8,2
Equity ratio (%) 91,9 89,4 89,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -20,1 -16,7 -19
Current ratio 8,67 8,04 8,57
EBITDA/net interest 17,9 29,1 432
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -2,6 -2,1 -2
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -3,6 -3,3 -2,9
Interest coverage 33,1 30,4 39,6
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Diluted shares adj. 11 11 11
EPS 1,47 1,18 2,55
Dividend per share 1,3 1,5 1,94
EPS adj. 5,66 5,36 6,73
BVPS 120,16 124,5 125,56
BVPS adj. 60,4 64,49 68,33
Net IB debt/share -24,21 -20,76 -23,91
Share price 292 292 292
Market cap. (m) 3327 3327 3327
Valuation N/A N/A N/A
P/E (x) 198,3 247,3 114,4
EV/sales (x) 4,74 4,59 4,24
EV/EBITDA (x) 27,7 26,3 21,4
EV/EBITA (x) 50,5 51,9 36,4
EV/EBIT (x) 263,1 287,1 87
Dividend yield (%) 0,4 0,5 0,7
FCF yield (%) 0,9 0,8 2,1
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 0,5 0,3 1,6
P/BVPS (x) 2,43 2,35 2,33
P/BVPS adj. (x) 4,83 4,53 4,27
P/E adj. (x) 51,6 54,5 43,4
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 27,7 26,3 21,4
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 50,5 51,9 36,4
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 263,1 287,1 87
EV/CE (x) 2,1 2 2
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 8,6 7,8 7,8
Capex/depreciation 1,6 1,2 1,3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 22,7 19,2 21
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 6,2 7 8,2
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 2 3 3
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 17,08 22,25 22,91

Equity research

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Media

Probi - Company presentation with CEO Anita Johansen & CFO Per Lindblad
Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund & CFO Henrik Lundkvist

Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 69.7 % 69.7 % 31 Jul 2024
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.3 % 9.3 % 31 Jul 2024
Moneta Asset Management 5.4 % 5.4 % 31 Jul 2024
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.6 % 0.6 % 31 Aug 2024
Avanza Pension 0.6 % 0.6 % 31 Jul 2024
Deka Investments 0.5 % 0.5 % 30 Jun 2024
SEB Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 31 Aug 2024
FCG Fonder 0.3 % 0.3 % 31 Aug 2024
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 0.3 % 0.3 % 31 Jul 2024
Claes Österlin 0.3 % 0.3 % 31 Jul 2024
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB