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Probi

Probi

Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We believe that Probi will benefit from the solid underlying market growth (c. 4% market growth) on the probiotics market and develop products in several different indications. We see opportunity for Probi to continue to deliver high sales growth in the Consumer HealthCare segment and in addition we see good opportunities in the Functional Food segment.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 0,6 3,7 4,3
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -1,8 -2,3 -2,8
Sales 658 715 756
Sales growth (%) -8,2 8,7 5,7
EBITDA 183 188 203
EBITDA margin (%) 27,7 26,2 26,8
EBIT adj 109 109 124
EBIT adj margin (%) 16,6 15,3 16,4
Pretax profit 107 107 123
EPS rep 7,3 7,43 8,55
EPS growth (%) -10,3 1,8 15,1
EPS adj 10,72 10,94 12,06
DPS 1,3 1,3 1,43
EV/EBITDA (x) 23,3 14,7 13
EV/EBIT adj (x) 38,9 25,2 21,3
P/E (x) 54,5 37 32,2
P/E adj (x) 37,1 25,1 22,8
EV/sales (x) 6,5 3,9 3,5
FCF yield (%) 0,9 4,1 4,7
Dividend yield (%) 0,3 0,5 0,5
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1,2 -1,7 -2,2
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Depreciation and amortisation -34 -38 -39
Of which leasing depreciation -13 -13 -14
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -39 -40 -40
EBITDA lease Adj 170 174 189
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 25,8 24,3 25
Sales 658 715 756
COGS -370 -403 -416
Gross profit 288 312 340
Other operating items -105 -124 -138
EBITDA 183 188 203
Depreciation on tangibles -14 -14 -14
Depreciation on intangibles -6 -7 -7
EBITA 148 149 164
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation -38 -35 -35
EBIT 109 109 124
Other financial items -2 0 0
Net financial items -2 -3 -1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 107 107 123
Tax -24 -22 -25
Net profit 83 85 97
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 83 85 97
EPS 7,3 7,43 8,55
EPS Adj 10,72 10,94 12,06
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -22,6 -20,6 -20,6
Gross margin (%) 43,8 43,6 45
EBITDA margin (%) 27,7 26,2 26,8
EBITA margin (%) 22,5 20,9 21,7
EBIT margin (%) 16,6 15,3 16,4
Pretax margin (%) 16,3 14,9 16,2
Net margin (%) 12,6 11,8 12,9
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) -8,2 8,7 5,7
EBITDA growth (%) -7,1 2,8 8
EBIT growth (%) -11,7 0,1 13,5
Net profit growth (%) -10,3 1,8 15,1
EPS growth (%) -10,3 1,8 15,1
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) 7 6,5 7,1
ROE Adj (%) 10,3 9,6 10
ROCE (%) 8,7 7,9 8,6
ROCE Adj(%) 11,8 10,8 11,3
ROIC (%) 8,4 8,3 9,8
ROIC Adj (%) 8,4 8,3 9,8
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 183 188 203
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 27,7 26,2 26,8
EBITA Adj 148 149 164
EBITA Adj margin (%) 22,5 20,9 21,7
EBIT Adj 109 109 124
EBIT Adj margin (%) 16,6 15,3 16,4
Pretax profit Adj 146 147 163
Net profit Adj 122 125 137
Net profit to shareholders Adj 122 125 137
Net Adj margin (%) 18,6 17,4 18,2
Leasing payments -12 -13 -14
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease liability amortisation -12 -13 -14
Other intangible assets 383 341 299
Right-of-use asset 75 75 75
Total other fixed assets 53 53 53
Leasing liability 78 78 78
Total other long-term liabilities 18 18 18
Net IB debt excl. leasing -299 -401 -521
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -175,9 -230,5 -275,4
EBITDA 183 188 203
Net financial items -2 -3 -1
Paid tax -24 -22 -25
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 156 163 176
Change in WC -18 -14 -9
Operating cash flow 139 149 167
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -34 -11 -11
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -7 -8 -9
Acquisitions and disposals -56 0 0
Free cash flow 41 130 147
Dividend paid -13 -14 -14
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 41 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 25 128 137
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 307 307 307
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 396 368 341
Tangible fixed assets 92 88 85
Other fixed assets 53 53 53
Fixed assets 910 864 819
Inventories 94 102 105
Receivables 119 129 137
Other current assets 10 10 10
Cash and liquid assets 299 401 521
Total assets 1432 1507 1592
Shareholders equity 1266 1336 1419
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 1266 1336 1419
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 4 4 4
Other long-term liabilities 4 4 4
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 46 50 52
Other current liabilities 25 25 25
Total liabilities and equity 1432 1507 1592
Net IB debt -222 -324 -443
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -222 -324 -443
Capital invested 1057 1026 990
Working capital 152 166 175
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 4529 3133 3133
Net IB debt Adj -222 -324 -443
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -53 -53 -53
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 4255 2757 2637
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 49,3 48,7 48,8
Capital invested turnover (%) 73 79,9 88,3
Capital employed turnover (%) 60,4 62 61,4
Inventories / sales (%) 12,4 13 12,3
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 5,4 5,3 5
Working capital / sales (%) 20,8 22,2 22,6
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) -17,5 -24,2 -31,2
Net debt / market cap (%) -4,2 -10,3 -14,1
Equity ratio (%) 88,4 88,7 89,2
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -17,5 -24,2 -31,2
Current ratio (%) 608,2 714,6 844,2
EBITDA / net interest (%) 10556,9 7655 14115,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -121,4 -172,6 -218,6
Interest cover (%) 7878,9 5984,9 6616,2
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 0,6 3,7 4,3
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Fully diluted shares Adj 11 11 11
EPS 7,3 7,43 8,55
Dividend per share Adj 1,3 1,3 1,4
EPS Adj 10,72 10,94 12,06
BVPS 111,07 117,28 124,58
BVPS Adj 50,48 60,39 71,36
Net IB debt / share -19,4 -28,4 -38,9
Share price 459,04 275 275
Market cap. (m) 5230 3133 3133
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E 54,5 37 32,2
EV/sales 6,46 3,85 3,49
EV/EBITDA 23,3 14,7 13
EV/EBITA 28,7 18,5 16,1
EV/EBIT 38,9 25,2 21,3
Dividend yield (%) 0,3 0,5 0,5
FCF yield (%) 0,9 4,1 4,7
P/BVPS 3,58 2,34 2,21
P/BVPS Adj 7,87 4,55 3,85
P/E Adj 37,1 25,1 22,8
EV/EBITDA Adj 23,3 14,7 13
EV/EBITA Adj 28,7 18,5 16,1
EV/EBIT Adj 38,9 25,2 21,3
EV/cap. employed 3,2 1,9 1,8
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 6,3 2,6 2,6
Capex / depreciation 199,7 75,8 79,7
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 37,2 12,2 13,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 1,9 2,4 2,8
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 2,7 3 3,4
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 11,4 16,4 17,2

Equity research

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Media

Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund & CFO Henrik Lundkvist
Probi - Interview with CEO Tom Rönnlund (in Swedish)

Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 60.5 % 60.5 % 31 Mar 2022
Swedbank Robur Fonder 9.9 % 9.9 % 12 May 2022
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.2 % 9.2 % 31 Mar 2022
SEB Fonder 2.6 % 2.6 % 30 Apr 2022
SEBinvest 0.9 % 0.9 % 31 Jan 2022
Nordea Fonder 0.7 % 0.7 % 31 Mar 2022
Moneta Asset Management 0.6 % 0.6 % 28 Feb 2022
Avanza Pension 0.6 % 0.6 % 31 Mar 2022
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 30 Apr 2022
Deka Investments 0.5 % 0.5 % 31 Dec 2021
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Probi

Name Quantity Code Date
Tom Rönnlund + 400 BUY 6 May 2020
Tom Rönnlund + 1 000 BUY 2 May 2019
Scandinavian Insight Consulting AB + 500 BUY 3 Dec 2018
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 200 BUY 25 Jan 2018
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 29 Mar 2017
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 225 BUY 27 Feb 2017
EVA REDHE + 5 000 BUY 22 Nov 2016
EVA REDHE - 5 000 SELL 22 Nov 2016
Jonny Olsson + 34 BUY 1 Nov 2016
NIKLAS BJÄRUM + 1 037 SUBS 24 Oct 2016

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