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Probi

Probi

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Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in three geographical segments – Americas, EMEA and APAC.

Sustainability information

We note several risk factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk, currency risk and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a number of key customers that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

Financials

SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 628 628 667
Sales growth (%) 1,5 0 6,2
EBITDA 108 112 135
EBITDA margin (%) 17,1 17,8 20,3
EBIT adj. 11 9 32
EBIT adj. margin (%) 1,8 1,4 4,8
Pretax profit 17 17 37
EPS 1,47 1,34 2,91
EPS growth (%) -58,7 -9,2 N/A
EPS adj. 5,66 5,52 7,09
DPS 1,3 1,5 1,94
EV/EBITDA (x) 24,6 23,7 19,3
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 233,9 295,8 81,4
P/E (x) 178,6 196,6 90,4
P/E adj. (x) 46,5 47,7 37,1
EV/sales (x) 4,22 4,22 3,9
FCF yield (%) 1 2,2 2,6
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 0,5 1,6 2,1
Dividend yield (%) 0,5 0,6 0,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -2,6 -2,5 -2,4
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) -3,6 -3,8 -3,4
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 628 628 667
COGS -407 -415 -423
Gross profit 220 213 243
Other operating items -113 -101 -108
EBITDA 108 112 135
Depreciation and amortisation -49 -55 -56
of which leasing depreciation -15 -15 -16
EBITA 59 57 80
EO Items N/A N/A N/A
Impairment and PPA amortisation -48 -48 -48
EBIT 11 9 32
Net financial items 6 8 5
Pretax profit 17 17 37
Tax -1 -2 -4
Net profit 17 15 33
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 17 15 33
EPS 1,47 1,34 2,91
EPS adj. 5,66 5,52 7,09
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments -15 -17 -16
Tax rate (%) 3,2 10 10
Gross margin (%) 35,1 33,9 36,5
EBITDA margin (%) 17,1 17,8 20,3
EBITA margin (%) 9,4 9 11,9
EBIT margin (%) 1,8 1,4 4,8
Pre-tax margin (%) 2,8 2,7 5,5
Net margin (%) 2,7 2,4 5
Growth Rates y-o-y N/A N/A N/A
Sales growth (%) 1,5 0 6,2
EBITDA growth (%) -21,1 3,8 21
EBITA growth (%) -38,6 -4,1 40,7
EBIT growth (%) -77,6 -20,9 N/A
Net profit growth (%) -58,7 -9,2 117,4
EPS growth (%) -58,7 -9,2 N/A
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) 1,2 1,1 2,4
ROE adj. (%) 4,6 4,6 5,9
ROCE (%) 1,3 1,3 2,7
ROCE adj. (%) 4,6 4,7 6
ROIC (%) 5,1 4,7 6,7
ROIC adj. (%) 5,1 4,7 6,7
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 108 112 135
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 17,1 17,8 20,3
EBITDA lease adj. 92 95 120
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 14,7 15,2 17,9
EBITA adj. 59 57 80
EBITA adj. margin (%) 9,4 9 11,9
EBIT adj. 11 9 32
EBIT adj. margin (%) 1,8 1,4 4,8
Pretax profit Adj. 65 65 84
Net profit Adj. 64 63 81
Net profit to shareholders adj. 64 63 81
Net adj. margin (%) 10,3 10 12,1
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
EBITDA 108 112 135
Goodwill 341 342 342
Net financial items 6 8 5
Other intangible assets 340 310 277
Paid tax -1 -2 -4
Tangible fixed assets 146 144 142
Non-cash items -26 -10 0
Right-of-use asset 49 75 75
Cash flow before change in WC 87 108 136
Total other fixed assets 74 81 81
Change in working capital -2 7 -6
Fixed assets 950 952 918
Operating cash flow 86 115 131
Inventories 117 127 129
Capex tangible fixed assets -33 -28 -30
Receivables 80 62 66
Capex intangible fixed assets -21 -22 -23
Other current assets 14 21 21
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 330 363 408
Free cash flow 31 65 78
Total assets 1490 1525 1542
Dividend paid -15 -15 -17
Shareholders equity 1369 1370 1386
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability amortisation -15 -17 -16
Total equity 1369 1370 1386
Other non-cash items 35 -27 0
Long-term debt N/A N/A N/A
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 54 81 81
Total other long-term liabilities 5 5 5
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 34 37 38
Other current liabilities 28 31 31
Total liabilities and equity 1490 1525 1542
Net IB debt -276 -282 -327
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -276 -282 -327
Net IB debt excl. leasing -330 -363 -408
Capital employed 1423 1451 1467
Capital invested 1093 1088 1059
Working capital 148 141 147
EV breakdown N/A N/A N/A
Market cap. diluted (m) 2997 2997 2997
Net IB debt adj. -276 -282 -327
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -73 -67 -67
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 2648 2648 2603
Total assets turnover (%) 41 41,6 43,5
Working capital/sales (%) 23,5 23,1 21,6
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -20,1 -20,6 -23,6
Net debt / market cap (%) -9,2 -9,4 -10,9
Equity ratio (%) 91,9 89,8 89,9
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -20,1 -20,6 -23,6
Current ratio 8,67 8,34 8,98
EBITDA/net interest 17,9 14,1 28
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -2,6 -2,5 -2,4
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -3,6 -3,8 -3,4
Interest coverage 33,1 27,5 35,6
SEKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Diluted shares adj. 11 11 11
EPS 1,47 1,34 2,91
Dividend per share 1,3 1,5 1,94
EPS adj. 5,66 5,52 7,09
BVPS 120,16 120,22 121,63
BVPS adj. 60,4 62,97 67,25
Net IB debt/share -24,21 -24,74 -28,68
Share price 263 263 263
Market cap. (m) 2997 2997 2997
Valuation N/A N/A N/A
P/E (x) 178,6 196,6 90,4
EV/sales (x) 4,22 4,22 3,9
EV/EBITDA (x) 24,6 23,7 19,3
EV/EBITA (x) 44,9 46,8 32,7
EV/EBIT (x) 233,9 295,8 81,4
Dividend yield (%) 0,5 0,6 0,7
FCF yield (%) 1 2,2 2,6
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 0,5 1,6 2,1
P/BVPS (x) 2,19 2,19 2,16
P/BVPS adj. (x) 4,35 4,18 3,91
P/E adj. (x) 46,5 47,7 37,1
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 24,6 23,7 19,3
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 44,9 46,8 32,7
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 233,9 295,8 81,4
EV/CE (x) 1,9 1,8 1,8
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 8,6 8 8
Capex/depreciation 1,6 1,3 1,3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 22,7 19,6 21,1
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 6,2 7 8,4
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 2 3 3
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 17,08 21,88 22,39

Equity research

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Media

Probi - Company presentation with CEO Anita Johansen & CFO Per Lindblad
Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund & CFO Henrik Lundkvist

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Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 72.5 % 72.5 % 25 Nov 2024
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.3 % 9.3 % 29 Oct 2024
Moneta Asset Management 6.5 % 6.5 % 30 Sep 2024
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.6 % 0.6 % 31 Oct 2024
Avanza Pension 0.6 % 0.6 % 29 Oct 2024
Deka Investments 0.5 % 0.5 % 30 Jun 2024
SEB Investment Management 0.5 % 0.5 % 29 Oct 2024
FCG Fonder 0.3 % 0.3 % 31 Oct 2024
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 0.3 % 0.3 % 29 Oct 2024
Claes Österlin 0.3 % 0.3 % 29 Oct 2024
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB