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Probi

Probi

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Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

Financials

SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 618 647 684
Sales growth (%) -6,1 4,7 5,6
EBITDA 136 180 182
EBITDA margin (%) 22 27,9 26,7
EBIT adj. 51 94 96
EBIT adj. margin (%) 8,2 14,6 14,1
Pretax profit 52 92 95
EPS 3,57 6,41 6,62
EPS growth (%) -51,1 79,7 3,3
EPS adj. 7,08 9,92 10,13
DPS 1,3 1,43 1,57
EV/EBITDA (x) 13,6 9,6 9
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 36,7 18,4 17,1
P/E (x) 53,9 30 29
P/E adj. (x) 27,2 19,4 19
EV/sales (x) 3 2,68 2,4
FCF yield (%) 4,2 6,1 5,7
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 3,6 5,4 5,1
Dividend yield (%) 0,7 0,7 0,8
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -1,9 -2,1 -2,6
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 2,6 2,7 3,2
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 618 647 684
COGS -363 -353 -381
Gross profit 255 294 303
Other operating items -119 -114 -121
EBITDA 136 180 182
Depreciation and amortisation -46 -46 -46
of which leasing depreciation -13 -13 -14
EBITA 91 134 136
EO Items N/A N/A N/A
Impairment and PPA amortisation -40 -40 -40
EBIT 51 94 96
Net financial items 1 -2 -1
Pretax profit 52 92 95
Tax -11 -19 -20
Net profit 41 73 75
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 41 73 75
EPS 3,57 6,41 6,62
EPS adj. 7,08 9,92 10,13
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments -14 -13 -14
Tax rate (%) 21,8 20,6 20,6
Gross margin (%) 41,3 45,5 44,3
EBITDA margin (%) 22 27,9 26,7
EBITA margin (%) 14,6 20,8 19,9
EBIT margin (%) 8,2 14,6 14,1
Pre-tax margin (%) 8,4 14,2 13,9
Net margin (%) 6,6 11,3 11
Growth Rates y-o-y N/A N/A N/A
Sales growth (%) -6,1 4,7 5,6
EBITDA growth (%) -25,4 32,3 1,1
EBITA growth (%) -38,9 48,3 1,3
EBIT growth (%) -53,7 86,5 1,8
Net profit growth (%) -51,1 79,7 3,3
EPS growth (%) -51,1 79,7 3,3
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) 3 5 5
ROE adj. (%) 6 7,8 7,6
ROCE (%) 3,9 6,2 6,1
ROCE adj. (%) 6,7 8,9 8,7
ROIC (%) 5,4 9,9 10,5
ROIC adj. (%) 5,4 9,9 10,5
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 136 180 182
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 22 27,9 26,7
EBITDA lease adj. 123 167 169
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 19,8 25,8 24,7
EBITA adj. 91 134 136
EBITA adj. margin (%) 14,6 20,8 19,9
EBIT adj. 51 94 96
EBIT adj. margin (%) 8,2 14,6 14,1
Pretax profit Adj. 92 132 135
Net profit Adj. 81 113 115
Net profit to shareholders adj. 81 113 115
Net adj. margin (%) 13 17,5 16,9
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
EBITDA 136 180 182
Goodwill 354 354 354
Net financial items 1 -2 -1
Other intangible assets 382 344 306
Paid tax -11 -19 -20
Tangible fixed assets 147 137 128
Non-cash items 25 0 0
Right-of-use asset 66 66 66
Cash flow before change in WC 151 159 162
Total other fixed assets 81 81 81
Change in working capital 5 -2 -11
Fixed assets 1030 982 935
Operating cash flow 156 157 150
Inventories 116 113 122
Capex tangible fixed assets -52 -13 -13
Receivables 89 93 99
Capex intangible fixed assets -12 -12 -13
Other current assets 11 11 11
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 324 443 537
Free cash flow 92 133 124
Total assets 1570 1642 1704
Dividend paid -15 -15 -16
Shareholders equity 1411 1484 1543
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability amortisation -14 -13 -14
Total equity 1411 1484 1543
Other non-cash items 16 15 0
Long-term debt N/A N/A N/A
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 70 70 70
Total other long-term liabilities 19 19 19
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 34 33 36
Other current liabilities 35 35 35
Total liabilities and equity 1570 1642 1704
Net IB debt -253 -372 -467
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -253 -372 -467
Net IB debt excl. leasing -324 -443 -537
Capital employed 1481 1554 1613
Capital invested 1171 1125 1090
Working capital 147 149 160
EV breakdown N/A N/A N/A
Market cap. diluted (m) 2190 2190 2190
Net IB debt adj. -253 -372 -467
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -81 -81 -81
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 1856 1737 1643
Total assets turnover (%) 41,2 40,3 40,9
Working capital/sales (%) 24,1 22,8 22,6
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -18 -25,1 -30,3
Net debt / market cap (%) -11,6 -17 -21,3
Equity ratio (%) 89,9 90,4 90,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -18 -25,1 -30,3
Current ratio 7,75 9,6 10,77
EBITDA/net interest 173,4 75,6 172,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -1,9 -2,1 -2,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -2,6 -2,7 -3,2
Interest coverage 37 56,3 57,6
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Diluted shares adj. 11 11 11
EPS 3,57 6,41 6,62
Dividend per share 1,3 1,43 1,57
EPS adj. 7,08 9,92 10,13
BVPS 123,8 130,2 135,39
BVPS adj. 59,17 68,95 77,46
Net IB debt/share -22,24 -32,69 -40,98
Share price 192,2 192,2 192,2
Market cap. (m) 2190 2190 2190
Valuation N/A N/A N/A
P/E (x) 53,9 30 29
EV/sales (x) 3 2,68 2,4
EV/EBITDA (x) 13,6 9,6 9
EV/EBITA (x) 20,5 12,9 12,1
EV/EBIT (x) 36,7 18,4 17,1
Dividend yield (%) 0,7 0,7 0,8
FCF yield (%) 4,2 6,1 5,7
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 3,6 5,4 5,1
P/BVPS (x) 1,55 1,48 1,42
P/BVPS adj. (x) 3,25 2,79 2,48
P/E adj. (x) 27,2 19,4 19
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 13,6 9,6 9
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 20,5 12,9 12,1
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 36,7 18,4 17,1
EV/CE (x) 1,3 1,1 1
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 10,4 3,8 3,8
Capex/depreciation 2 0,8 0,8
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 35,7 9,2 10,4
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 3,2 3,4 4,1
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 3 3 3
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 14,9 16,16 17,47

Equity research

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Media

Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund & CFO Henrik Lundkvist
Probi - Interview with CEO Tom Rönnlund (in Swedish)

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Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 69.0 % 69.0 % 24 Feb 2023
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.3 % 9.3 % 24 Feb 2023
Moneta Asset Management 5.0 % 5.0 % 22 Dec 2022
Swedbank Robur Fonder 1.4 % 1.4 % 31 Jan 2023
Avanza Pension 0.7 % 0.7 % 24 Feb 2023
Nordea Fonder 0.6 % 0.6 % 24 Feb 2023
Deka Investments 0.5 % 0.5 % 30 Sep 2022
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 28 Feb 2023
SEB Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 28 Feb 2023
SEBinvest 0.4 % 0.4 % 30 Nov 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Probi

Name Quantity Code Date
Tom Rönnlund + 400 BUY 6 May 2020
Tom Rönnlund + 1 000 BUY 2 May 2019
Scandinavian Insight Consulting AB + 500 BUY 3 Dec 2018
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 200 BUY 25 Jan 2018
INGRID LINDA MARIE NECKMAR + 250 BUY 29 Mar 2017
Bengt Peter Nählstedt + 225 BUY 27 Feb 2017
EVA REDHE + 5 000 BUY 22 Nov 2016
EVA REDHE - 5 000 SELL 22 Nov 2016
Jonny Olsson + 34 BUY 1 Nov 2016
NIKLAS BJÄRUM + 1 037 SUBS 24 Oct 2016

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