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Probi

Probi

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Global probiotics group

Probi develops, produces, markets and sells probiotics globally to food, health and pharmaceutical companies. Probiotics are living microorganisms that have a beneficial effect on health when taken in a sufficient amount. The company's research focuses primarily on gastrointestinal health, immune systems, nutritional and iron intake and metabolic health. The Group is organized in two business areas - Consumer HealthCare and Functional Food.

We note a number of risks factors for Probi, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, Probi is dependent on a customer that constitutes a large part of the Group's total sales.

Financials

SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 618 627 674
Sales growth (%) -6,1 1,5 7,5
EBITDA 136 115 133
EBITDA margin (%) 22 18,3 19,8
EBIT adj. 51 19 37
EBIT adj. margin (%) 8,2 3 5,5
Pretax profit 52 24 37
EPS 3,57 1,43 2,22
EPS growth (%) -51,1 -59,9 55,4
EPS adj. 7,56 4,94 5,73
DPS 1,3 1,43 1,64
EV/EBITDA (x) 13,8 16,4 13,9
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 37,1 98,7 50,4
P/E (x) 54,4 135,6 87,3
P/E adj. (x) 25,7 39,3 33,8
EV/sales (x) 3,04 3,01 2,75
FCF yield (%) 4,1 0,5 2,7
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 3,5 -0,1 2,1
Dividend yield (%) 0,7 0,7 0,8
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -1,9 -2,1 -2,1
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) -2,6 -3,1 -2,8
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 618 627 674
COGS -363 -403 -409
Gross profit 255 224 266
Other operating items -119 -109 -132
EBITDA 136 115 133
Depreciation and amortisation -40 -56 -56
of which leasing depreciation -15 -13 -14
EBITA 96 59 77
EO Items N/A N/A N/A
Impairment and PPA amortisation -45 -40 -40
EBIT 51 19 37
Net financial items 1 4 0
Pretax profit 52 24 37
Tax -11 -7 -11
Net profit 41 16 25
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 41 16 25
EPS 3,57 1,43 2,22
EPS adj. 7,56 4,94 5,73
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments -14 -15 -14
Tax rate (%) 21,8 30,8 30,8
Gross margin (%) 41,3 35,7 39,4
EBITDA margin (%) 22 18,3 19,8
EBITA margin (%) 15,5 9,4 11,4
EBIT margin (%) 8,2 3 5,5
Pre-tax margin (%) 8,4 3,8 5,4
Net margin (%) 6,6 2,6 3,8
Growth Rates y-o-y N/A N/A N/A
Sales growth (%) -6,1 1,5 7,5
EBITDA growth (%) -25,4 -15,5 15,8
EBITA growth (%) -35,2 -38,4 30
EBIT growth (%) -53,7 -62,2 92,7
Net profit growth (%) -51,1 -59,9 55,4
EPS growth (%) -51,1 -59,9 55,4
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) 3 1,1 1,7
ROE adj. (%) 6,4 3,9 4,5
ROCE (%) 3,9 1,7 2,5
ROCE adj. (%) 7,1 4,4 5,2
ROIC (%) 6,7 3,5 4,4
ROIC adj. (%) 6,7 3,5 4,4
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 136 115 133
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 22 18,3 19,8
EBITDA lease adj. 123 100 120
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 19,8 16 17,7
EBITA adj. 96 59 77
EBITA adj. margin (%) 15,5 9,4 11,4
EBIT adj. 51 19 37
EBIT adj. margin (%) 8,2 3 5,5
Pretax profit Adj. 97 64 77
Net profit Adj. 86 56 65
Net profit to shareholders adj. 86 56 65
Net adj. margin (%) 13,9 9 9,7
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
EBITDA 136 115 133
Goodwill 354 367 367
Net financial items 1 4 0
Other intangible assets 382 355 329
Paid tax -11 -7 -11
Tangible fixed assets 147 159 154
Non-cash items 25 1 0
Right-of-use asset 66 56 56
Cash flow before change in WC 151 113 122
Total other fixed assets 81 78 78
Change in working capital 5 -54 -10
Fixed assets 1030 1016 985
Operating cash flow 156 59 112
Inventories 116 135 137
Capex tangible fixed assets -52 -26 -28
Receivables 89 116 125
Capex intangible fixed assets -12 -22 -24
Other current assets 11 18 18
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 324 307 337
Free cash flow 92 11 60
Total assets 1570 1592 1602
Dividend paid -15 -15 -16
Shareholders equity 1411 1453 1462
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability amortisation -14 -15 -14
Total equity 1411 1453 1462
Other non-cash items 16 20 0
Long-term debt N/A N/A N/A
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 70 61 61
Total other long-term liabilities 19 9 9
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 34 31 32
Other current liabilities 35 38 38
Total liabilities and equity 1570 1592 1602
Net IB debt -253 -246 -276
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -253 -246 -276
Net IB debt excl. leasing -324 -307 -337
Capital employed 1481 1514 1523
Capital invested 1157 1207 1186
Working capital 147 201 211
EV breakdown N/A N/A N/A
Market cap. diluted (m) 2210 2210 2210
Net IB debt adj. -253 -246 -276
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations -81 -78 -78
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 1877 1887 1857
Total assets turnover (%) 41,2 39,7 42,2
Working capital/sales (%) 24,1 27,7 30,5
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -18 -16,9 -18,9
Net debt / market cap (%) -11,5 -11,1 -12,5
Equity ratio (%) 89,9 91,2 91,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -18 -16,9 -18,9
Current ratio 7,75 8,35 8,88
EBITDA/net interest 173,1 33,3 586,5
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -1,9 -2,1 -2,1
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -2,6 -3,1 -2,8
Interest coverage 39,2 31,3 38,1
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Shares outstanding adj. 11 11 11
Diluted shares adj. 11 11 11
EPS 3,57 1,43 2,22
Dividend per share 1,3 1,43 1,64
EPS adj. 7,56 4,94 5,73
BVPS 123,8 127,49 128,29
BVPS adj. 59,17 64,09 67,2
Net IB debt/share -22,24 -21,55 -24,19
Share price 194 194 194
Market cap. (m) 2210 2210 2210
Valuation N/A N/A N/A
P/E (x) 54,4 135,6 87,3
EV/sales (x) 3,04 3,01 2,75
EV/EBITDA (x) 13,8 16,4 13,9
EV/EBITA (x) 19,5 31,9 24,2
EV/EBIT (x) 37,1 98,7 50,4
Dividend yield (%) 0,7 0,7 0,8
FCF yield (%) 4,1 0,5 2,7
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 3,5 -0,1 2,1
P/BVPS (x) 1,57 1,52 1,51
P/BVPS adj. (x) 3,28 3,03 2,89
P/E adj. (x) 25,7 39,3 33,8
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 13,8 16,4 13,9
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 19,5 31,9 24,2
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 37,1 98,7 50,4
EV/CE (x) 1,3 1,2 1,2
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 10,4 7,7 7,7
Capex/depreciation 2,6 1,1 1,2
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 35,7 16,2 17,9
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 3,2 6,3 7,3
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 3 3 3
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 10,34 20,2 21,04

Equity research

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Media

Probi - Company presentation with CEO Anita Johansen & CFO Per Lindblad
Probi - Company presentation with CEO Tom Rönnlund & CFO Henrik Lundkvist

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Main shareholders - Probi

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Symrise AG 69.5 % 69.5 % 27 Oct 2023
Fjärde AP-fonden 9.3 % 9.3 % 27 Oct 2023
Moneta Asset Management 5.0 % 5.0 % 22 Dec 2022
Avanza Pension 0.6 % 0.6 % 27 Oct 2023
Handelsbanken Fonder 0.6 % 0.6 % 31 Oct 2023
Deka Investments 0.5 % 0.5 % 30 Jun 2023
SEB Fonder 0.5 % 0.5 % 31 Oct 2023
Claes Österlin 0.3 % 0.3 % 27 Oct 2023
Nordea Liv & Pension 0.3 % 0.3 % 27 Oct 2023
FCG Fonder 0.3 % 0.3 % 31 Oct 2023
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB