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Penneo

Penneo

Penneo is a Danish SaaS provider of digital signatures, document handling, and onboarding of customers through its two solutions Penneo Sign and Penneo KYC. It also has an aspiration to develop additional solutions to become a true end-to-end business process automation platform. The company has delivered impressive SaaS metrics in recent years, particularly with its low churn and high net retention rate. Penneo is currently present in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Belgium, and Germany, but it aims to expand to additional countries in the future.

The market for Penneo’s solutions is highly competitive, and some competitors have more financial strength and a more extensive global reach. While Penneo is focused on the accounting, audit, and financial institution verticals, there is a risk that the other players may begin to develop solutions targeting these verticals, potentially forcing Penneo into a price war. In addition, we believe there is risk associated with Penneo’s international expansion, while we also consider lack of funding in the future a key risk.

DKKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 90 113 142
Sales growth (%) 24,6 25,4 26,5
EBITDA -9 -1 12
EBITDA margin (%) -10,5 -0,6 8,4
EBIT adj. -24 -16 -4
EBIT adj. margin (%) -26,7 -14,6 -3,2
Pretax profit -26 -19 -7
EPS -0,67 -0,41 -0,14
EPS growth (%) 18,2 -38,8 -65,5
EPS adj. -0,73 -0,4 -0,13
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -30,6 -465,8 27,1
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -12 -19 -72,5
P/E (x) -12,3 -20,2 -58,4
P/E adj. (x) -11,3 -20,5 -62,4
EV/sales (x) 3,22 2,77 2,29
FCF yield (%) -7,9 -7,6 -4
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -7,9 -7,6 -4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 1,6 -12,5 0,6
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 1,9 0,4 -0,4
DKKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 90 113 142
COGS -13 -18 -22
Gross profit 76 95 120
Other operating items -86 -96 -108
EBITDA -9 -1 12
Depreciation and amortisation -14 -15 -16
of which leasing depreciation -4 -4 -4
EBITA -23 -16 -4
EO Items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -1 -1 -1
EBIT -24 -17 -5
Net financial items -2 -2 -2
Pretax profit -26 -19 -7
Tax 2 4 1
Net profit -25 -15 -5
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -25 -15 -5
EPS -0,67 -0,41 -0,14
EPS adj. -0,73 -0,4 -0,13
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments -4 -4 -4
Tax rate (%) 5,7 19,8 19,8
Gross margin (%) 85 84,3 84,5
EBITDA margin (%) -10,5 -0,6 8,4
EBITA margin (%) -25,7 -14 -2,7
EBIT margin (%) -26,8 -14,9 -3,5
Pre-tax margin (%) -29,3 -16,7 -4,8
Net margin (%) -27,6 -13,4 -3,8
Sales growth (%) 24,6 25,4 26,5
EBITDA growth (%) -29,9 -92,9 -1893,1
EBITA growth (%) 1,2 -31,8 -75,8
EBIT growth (%) 2,5 -30,2 -70,7
Net profit growth (%) 22,3 -39,3 -63,8
EPS growth (%) 18,2 -38,8 -65,5
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -24,9 -17,5 -6,5
ROE adj. (%) -23,9 -16 -4,8
ROCE (%) -19,8 -16 -5,3
ROCE adj. (%) -19 -14,7 -3,9
ROIC (%) -27,8 -15,2 -3,3
ROIC adj. (%) -27,8 -14,9 -3
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. -9 0 12
EBITDA adj. margin (%) -10,5 -0,3 8,7
EBITDA lease adj. -13 -5 8
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) -14,7 -4 5,7
EBITA adj. -23 -15 -3
EBITA adj. margin (%) -25,7 -13,7 -2,4
EBIT adj. -24 -16 -4
EBIT adj. margin (%) -26,7 -14,6 -3,2
Pretax profit Adj. -25 -17 -5
Net profit Adj. -24 -14 -4
Net profit to shareholders adj. -24 -14 -4
Net adj. margin (%) -26,5 -12,2 -2,8
DKKm 2023 2024e 2025e
EBITDA -9 -1 12
Goodwill 0 0 0
Net financial items -2 -2 -2
Other intangible assets 68 78 89
Paid tax 2 2 1
Tangible fixed assets 1 1 1
Non-cash items 3 1 0
Right-of-use asset 9 8 7
Cash flow before change in WC -8 0 11
Total other fixed assets 2 2 2
Change in working capital 6 -1 -1
Fixed assets 80 89 99
Operating cash flow -1 -1 10
Inventories 0 0 0
Capex tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Receivables 23 26 31
Capex intangible fixed assets -22 -22 -23
Other current assets 4 2 2
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 37 13 13
Free cash flow -24 -23 -13
Total assets 143 130 145
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 93 78 89
Share issues and buybacks 9 0 14
Minority 0 0 0
Leasing liability amortisation 0 0 0
Total equity 93 78 89
Other non-cash items 2 0 0
Long-term debt 13 12 11
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 10 10 10
Total other long-term liabilities 3 3 3
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 15 18 21
Other current liabilities 8 7 9
Total liabilities and equity 143 130 145
Net IB debt -15 8 7
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -15 8 7
Net IB debt excl. leasing -25 -2 -3
Capital employed 117 101 111
Capital invested 79 87 96
Working capital 4 3 3
Market cap. diluted (m) 303 303 318
Net IB debt adj. -15 8 7
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 289 312 325
Total assets turnover (%) 60,8 82,4 103,7
Working capital/sales (%) 8,3 2,8 2
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -15,8 10,7 8
Net debt / market cap (%) -5,3 3 2,4
Equity ratio (%) 65,2 60,4 61,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -15,8 10,7 8
Current ratio 2,7 1,59 1,51
EBITDA/net interest 6 0,5 10,5
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 1,6 -12,5 0,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 1,9 0,4 -0,4
Interest coverage 14,6 12,1 3,3
DKKm 2023 2024e 2025e
Shares outstanding adj. 34 34 36
Diluted shares adj. 37 37 39
EPS -0,67 -0,41 -0,14
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -0,73 -0,4 -0,13
BVPS 2,54 2,13 2,31
BVPS adj. 0,68 0 0,01
Net IB debt/share -0,4 0,23 0,19
Share price 8,24 8,24 8,24
Market cap. (m) 278 281 296
P/E (x) -12,3 -20,2 -58,4
EV/sales (x) 3,22 2,77 2,29
EV/EBITDA (x) -30,6 -465,8 27,1
EV/EBITA (x) -12,5 -19,8 -85,6
EV/EBIT (x) -12 -18,6 -66,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -7,9 -7,6 -4
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -7,9 -7,6 -4
P/BVPS (x) 3,25 3,87 3,57
P/BVPS adj. (x) 11,08 6078,79 714,53
P/E adj. (x) -11,3 -20,5 -62,4
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -30,8 -943,8 26,2
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -12,5 -20,3 -96,5
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -12 -19 -72,5
EV/CE (x) 2,5 3,1 2,9
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 25 19,4 16,1
Capex/depreciation 2,3 2 2
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 10,6 30,4 48,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 32,8 27,6 25,4
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 14 13 12
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 40,56 56,37 74,59

Equity research

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Media

Penneo - Company presentation with CEO Christian Stendevad
Penneo - Fireside chat with CEO Christian Stendevad

Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Viking Venture AS 9.2 % 9.2 % 10 Aug 2023
Nicolaj Højer Nielsen 7.2 % 7.2 % 31 Dec 2022
Arbejdsmarkedets Tillægspension (ATP) 6.4 % 6.4 % 31 Dec 2023
Mikkel Clausen 6.3 % 6.3 % 31 Dec 2022
Jan Flora 5.7 % 5.7 % 31 Dec 2022
Michael Moesgaard Andersen 4.1 % 4.1 % 10 Aug 2023
BI Asset Mgmt Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S 2.5 % 2.5 % 31 Oct 2023
André Clement 2.2 % 2.2 % 23 Jan 2024
DNB Asset Management SA 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Dec 2023
Jakob Neua Nørgaard 1.8 % 1.8 % 29 Mar 2023
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB