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Penneo

Penneo

Penneo is a Danish SaaS provider of digital signatures, document handling, and onboarding of customers through its two solutions Penneo Sign and Penneo KYC. It also has an aspiration to develop additional solutions to become a true end-to-end business process automation platform. The company has delivered impressive SaaS metrics in recent years, particularly with its low churn and high net retention rate. Penneo is currently present in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Belgium, and Germany, but it aims to expand to additional countries in the future.

The market for Penneo’s solutions is highly competitive, and some competitors have more financial strength and a more extensive global reach. While Penneo is focused on the accounting, audit, and financial institution verticals, there is a risk that the other players may begin to develop solutions targeting these verticals, potentially forcing Penneo into a price war. In addition, we believe there is risk associated with Penneo’s international expansion, while we also consider lack of funding in the future a key risk.

DKKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 72 87 113
Sales growth (%) 32,8 20,6 29,5
EBITDA -13 -13 -5
EBITDA margin (%) -18,7 -14,4 -4,2
EBIT adj. -21 -25 -18
EBIT adj. margin (%) -29,3 -28,2 -16,1
Pretax profit -26 -27 -20
EPS -0,56 -0,6 -0,42
EPS growth (%) -7,7 5,4 -29,4
EPS adj. -0,47 -0,58 -0,4
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -25,7 -30 -86
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -16,4 -15,4 -22,2
P/E (x) -18,4 -17,5 -24,8
P/E adj. (x) -22,3 -18 -25,8
EV/sales (x) 4,81 4,33 3,58
FCF yield (%) -8,6 -7,8 -5,9
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -8,6 -7,8 -5,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 2 -0,1 0,5
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 2,9 0,7 2,1
DKKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 72 87 113
COGS -13 -17 -21
Gross profit 60 70 92
Other operating items -73 -83 -97
EBITDA -13 -13 -5
Depreciation and amortisation -9 -11 -13
of which leasing depreciation -3 -3 -3
EBITA -23 -24 -17
EO Items -2 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -1 -1 -1
EBIT -23 -25 -18
Net financial items -2 -2 -2
Pretax profit -26 -27 -20
Tax 6 5 4
Net profit -20 -21 -16
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -20 -21 -16
EPS -0,56 -0,6 -0,42
EPS adj. -0,47 -0,58 -0,4
Total extraordinary items after tax -2 0 0
Leasing payments -3 -3 -3
Tax rate (%) 21,4 19,8 19,8
Gross margin (%) 82,6 80,9 81,7
EBITDA margin (%) -18,7 -14,4 -4,2
EBITA margin (%) -31,6 -27,5 -15,5
EBIT margin (%) -32,6 -28,5 -16,4
Pre-tax margin (%) -35,7 -30,8 -18,1
Net margin (%) -28,1 -24,7 -14,5
Sales growth (%) 32,8 20,6 29,5
EBITDA growth (%) -10,6 -6,6 -62,7
EBITA growth (%) 3,3 4,9 -26,9
EBIT growth (%) 3,2 5,6 -25,4
Net profit growth (%) 8,7 5,9 -23,7
EPS growth (%) -7,7 5,4 -29,4
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -24,9 -22,6 -18,1
ROE adj. (%) -21,9 -21,5 -16,7
ROCE (%) -22 -20,8 -16,3
ROCE adj. (%) -19,3 -19,8 -15,2
ROIC (%) -26,1 -23,4 -15,5
ROIC adj. (%) -23,5 -23,1 -15,2
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. -11 -12 -4
EBITDA adj. margin (%) -15,4 -14,1 -3,9
EBITDA lease adj. -14 -15 -7
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) -19 -17,2 -6,2
EBITA adj. -20 -24 -17
EBITA adj. margin (%) -28,4 -27,2 -15,2
EBIT adj. -21 -25 -18
EBIT adj. margin (%) -29,3 -28,2 -16,1
Pretax profit Adj. -23 -26 -19
Net profit Adj. -18 -20 -15
Net profit to shareholders adj. -18 -20 -15
Net adj. margin (%) -24,7 -23,4 -13,4
DKKm 2022 2023e 2024e
EBITDA -13 -13 -5
Goodwill 0 0 0
Net financial items -2 -2 -2
Other intangible assets 57 68 78
Paid tax 5 5 4
Tangible fixed assets 1 1 1
Non-cash items 6 2 2
Right-of-use asset 12 12 12
Cash flow before change in WC -5 -7 0
Total other fixed assets 1 1 1
Change in working capital -8 -2 -2
Fixed assets 71 82 92
Operating cash flow -13 -9 -3
Inventories 0 0 0
Capex tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Receivables 22 24 31
Capex intangible fixed assets -19 -20 -21
Other current assets 6 0 -4
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 53 23 26
Free cash flow -32 -29 -24
Total assets 152 130 145
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 106 84 97
Share issues and buybacks 60 0 28
Minority 0 0 0
Leasing liability amortisation 0 0 0
Total equity 106 84 97
Other non-cash items 1 0 0
Long-term debt 11 10 8
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 12 12 12
Total other long-term liabilities 3 3 3
Short-term debt 4 4 4
Accounts payable 11 11 14
Other current liabilities 5 5 6
Total liabilities and equity 152 130 145
Net IB debt -27 2 -2
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -28 1 -3
Net IB debt excl. leasing -40 -11 -15
Capital employed 133 111 122
Capital invested 78 86 95
Working capital 11 8 7
Market cap. diluted (m) 374 375 405
Net IB debt adj. -27 2 -2
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 346 376 402
Total assets turnover (%) 56,2 61,6 81,8
Working capital/sales (%) 9,7 11,2 6,5
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -25,9 2,2 -2,4
Net debt / market cap (%) -8,2 0,5 -0,6
Equity ratio (%) 69,4 64,7 66,8
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -25,9 2,2 -2,4
Current ratio 4,03 2,38 2,18
EBITDA/net interest 8,1 8,5 3,3
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 2 -0,1 0,5
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 2,9 0,7 2,1
Interest coverage 13,7 16,2 12,4
DKKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Shares outstanding adj. 32 32 35
Diluted shares adj. 36 36 39
EPS -0,56 -0,6 -0,42
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -0,47 -0,58 -0,4
BVPS 3,28 2,61 2,77
BVPS adj. 1,51 0,51 0,55
Net IB debt/share -0,85 0,06 -0,07
Share price 10,4 10,4 10,4
Market cap. (m) 334 334 365
P/E (x) -18,4 -17,5 -24,8
EV/sales (x) 4,81 4,33 3,58
EV/EBITDA (x) -25,7 -30 -86
EV/EBITA (x) -15,2 -15,7 -23
EV/EBIT (x) -14,8 -15,2 -21,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -8,6 -7,8 -5,9
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -8,6 -7,8 -5,9
P/BVPS (x) 3,17 3,98 3,76
P/BVPS adj. (x) 6,89 20,43 19,05
P/E adj. (x) -22,3 -18 -25,8
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -31,1 -30,6 -92,7
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -16,9 -15,9 -23,5
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -16,4 -15,4 -22,2
EV/CE (x) 2,6 3,4 3,3
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 26,7 23,2 19,1
Capex/depreciation 2,8 2,3 2,1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 9,4 15,4 19,6
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 33,6 29,6 27,3
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 11 13 13
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 21,53 20,58 19,96

Equity research

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Media

Penneo - Company presentation with CEO Christian Stendevad & CFO Casper Christiansen
Penneo - Company presentation with CEO Christian Stendevad & CFO Casper Nielsen Christiansen

Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Michael Moesgaard Andersen 9.7 % 9.7 % 31 Dec 2022
Nicolaj Højer Nielsen 7.2 % 7.2 % 31 Dec 2022
Arbejdsmarkedets Tillægspension (ATP) 6.8 % 6.8 % 31 Dec 2022
Mikkel Clausen 6.3 % 6.3 % 31 Dec 2022
Jan Flora 5.7 % 5.7 % 31 Dec 2022
Janek Borgmann 4.9 % 4.9 % 26 May 2020
André Clement 3.8 % 3.8 % 25 Aug 2022
BI Asset Mgmt Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S 2.7 % 2.7 % 30 Nov 2022
Penneo A/S 1.1 % 1.1 % 31 Dec 2022
SEBinvest 1.0 % 1.0 % 30 Nov 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB