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Flexion Mobile

Flexion Mobile

Reaching a wider Android market

Flexion is primarily a game distributor on the alternative Android market (which does not include Google Play or China). It offers game developers an opportunity to reach a wider Android market than Google Play, through its full service offering and unique technology, without any additional effort for the game developer itself. The Android mobile games market is growing strongly, with Google Play as the frontrunner. We believe that the alternative Android market has a good chance to match it, or even grow faster in percentage terms.

Long-term risks include dependence on key partners, increased competition, and consolidation in the Android market. We think that key channel partners are of particular importance to Flexion, as they are limited. There is currently no direct competitor to Flexion, because it is a first-mover in a niche market, but we expect increased competition. Furthermore, the current fragmentation wave on the Android market will not last forever. Eventual consolidation is likely, which might decrease the value Flexion brings to its customers.

GBPm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 71 80 91
Sales growth (%) 3,3 12,7 14,2
EBITDA 2 7 7
EBITDA margin (%) 3,2 8,2 8
EBIT adj. 0 2 4
EBIT adj. margin (%) -0,6 2,7 4,6
Pretax profit -1 1 4
EPS -0,03 0,01 0,05
EPS growth (%) -506,4 -151,7 285,9
EPS adj. -0,03 0,01 0,05
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 17,3 5,1 3,9
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -89 15,6 6,7
P/E (x) -26,9 52,2 13,5
P/E adj. (x) -26,9 52,2 13,5
EV/sales (x) 0,55 0,42 0,31
FCF yield (%) -4,3 8,7 10,4
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -4,7 8,1 9,6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -1,1 -1,2 -1,7
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) -1,3 -1,3 -1,9
GBPm 2023 2024e 2025e
Sales 71 80 91
COGS -58 -63 -72
Gross profit 12 17 19
Other operating items -10 -10 -12
EBITDA 2 7 7
Depreciation and amortisation -3 -4 -3
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 0 2 4
EO Items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 0 2 4
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Pretax profit -1 1 4
Tax 0 0 -1
Net profit -2 1 3
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -2 1 3
EPS -0,03 0,01 0,05
EPS adj. -0,03 0,01 0,05
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -7,5 33,8 15
Gross margin (%) 17,5 20,9 21,2
EBITDA margin (%) 3,2 8,2 8
EBITA margin (%) -0,6 2,7 4,6
EBIT margin (%) -0,6 2,7 4,6
Pre-tax margin (%) -2 1,5 3,9
Net margin (%) -2,2 1 3,3
Growth Rates y-o-y N/A N/A N/A
Sales growth (%) 3,3 12,7 14,2
EBITDA growth (%) -43,1 187,6 12
EBITA growth (%) -130,6 -586,4 96,2
EBIT growth (%) -130,6 -586,4 96,2
Net profit growth (%) -523,5 -150,8 285,9
EPS growth (%) -506,4 -151,7 285,9
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) -8,6 4,2 14,6
ROE adj. (%) -8,6 4,2 14,6
ROCE (%) -1,7 8 15
ROCE adj. (%) -1,7 8 15
ROIC (%) -3,5 10,4 33,4
ROIC adj. (%) -3,5 10,4 33,4
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 2 7 7
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 3,2 8,2 8
EBITDA lease adj. 2 6 7
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 3,1 7,9 7,7
EBITA adj. 0 2 4
EBITA adj. margin (%) -0,6 2,7 4,6
EBIT adj. 0 2 4
EBIT adj. margin (%) -0,6 2,7 4,6
Pretax profit Adj. -1 1 4
Net profit Adj. -2 1 3
Net profit to shareholders adj. -2 1 3
Net adj. margin (%) -2,2 1 3,3
GBPm 2023 2024e 2025e
EBITDA 2 7 7
Goodwill 7 7 7
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Other intangible assets 15 11 9
Paid tax 0 0 -1
Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Non-cash items 3 0 0
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 5 5 6
Total other fixed assets 0 0 0
Change in working capital -3 0 0
Fixed assets 23 19 17
Operating cash flow 1 5 6
Inventories 0 0 0
Capex tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Receivables 15 18 19
Capex intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and Disposals -3 -1 -1
Cash and liquid assets 11 15 19
Free cash flow -2 4 4
Total assets 49 52 55
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 18 19 22
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Leasing liability amortisation 0 0 0
Total equity 18 19 22
Other non-cash items -2 2 1
Long-term debt 4 4 2
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 2 2 2
Short-term debt 5 4 4
Accounts payable 20 22 24
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 49 52 55
Net IB debt -3 -8 -13
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -3 -8 -13
Net IB debt excl. leasing -3 -8 -13
Capital employed 27 27 29
Capital invested 15 12 10
Working capital -5 -5 -5
EV breakdown N/A N/A N/A
Market cap. diluted (m) 42 41 41
Net IB debt adj. -3 -8 -13
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 39 34 28
Total assets turnover (%) 147,4 158,9 170,5
Working capital/sales (%) -8,8 -5,9 -5,1
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -14,1 -39 -57
Net debt / market cap (%) -6,2 -18,3 -31
Equity ratio (%) 37,1 37,2 40,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -14,1 -39 -57
Current ratio 1,07 1,26 1,4
EBITDA/net interest 2,3 6,8 11,5
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -1,1 -1,2 -1,7
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -1,3 -1,3 -1,9
Interest coverage 0,4 2,2 6,6
GBPm 2023 2024e 2025e
Shares outstanding adj. 56 56 56
Diluted shares adj. 57 56 56
EPS -0,03 0,01 0,05
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -0,03 0,01 0,05
BVPS 0,31 0,34 0,4
BVPS adj. -0,08 0,01 0,11
Net IB debt/share -0,04 -0,13 -0,23
Share price 9,92 9,92 9,92
Market cap. (m) 41 41 41
P/E (x) -26,9 52,2 13,5
EV/sales (x) 0,55 0,42 0,31
EV/EBITDA (x) 17,3 5,1 3,9
EV/EBITA (x) -89 15,6 6,7
EV/EBIT (x) -89 15,6 6,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -4,3 8,7 10,4
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -4,7 8,1 9,6
P/BVPS (x) 2,32 2,13 1,84
P/BVPS adj. (x) 15,59 8,86 4,79
P/E adj. (x) -26,9 52,2 13,5
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 17,3 5,1 3,9
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -89 15,6 6,7
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -89 15,6 6,7
EV/CE (x) 1,5 1,2 1
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 0 0,4 0,4
Capex/depreciation 0 0,1 0,1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 4,3 5,1
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 32 55 42
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 30,83 33,33

Equity research

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Media

Flexion Mobile - Company presentation with CFO Niklas Koresaar
Flexion Mobile - Company presentation with CFO Niklas Koresaar

Main shareholders - Flexion Mobile

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Mobile Sensations Ltd 20.2 % 20.2 % 29 Dec 2023
Carl Palmstierna 6.3 % 6.3 % 29 Dec 2023
Alta Fox Capital 4.6 % 4.6 % 21 Jun 2023
Fredrik Palmstierna 3.5 % 3.5 % 27 Dec 2023
Joachim Odqvist 2.8 % 2.8 % 27 Dec 2023
Avanza Pension 2.8 % 2.8 % 31 Mar 2023
eQ Asset Management Oy 2.3 % 2.3 % 30 Apr 2024
Sjätte AP-fonden 2.3 % 2.3 % 30 Sep 2022
Niklas Köresaar 0.9 % 0.9 % 9 Dec 2022
Aktia Asset Management 0.7 % 0.7 % 31 Mar 2024
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB