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Cedergrenska

Cedergrenska

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Cedergrenska is a Swedish independent educational provider founded in 2007. It offers a broad range of education, from preschools to higher vocational education. The majority of revenues stem from compulsory and upper secondary schools located in the northeast Stockholm region. The company runs its schools under a framework called “The Cedergrenska model”, which is based on geographical clusters where schools within cooperate to enhance education, create attractive workplaces and reach economies of scale.

The two key operational risks the company faces are sufficient funding from the school vouchers and political reforms. Swedish municipalities are facing economic constraints from an ageing population and there is concern about how this will translate to school vouchers. Furthermore, the political landscape is far from predictable, and we cannot rule out reforms that will be negative for independent school actors in the future.

Financials

SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 790 904 931
Sales growth (%) 30 14,4 3
EBITDA 54 59 71
EBITDA margin (%) 6,9 6,5 7,6
EBIT adj. 23 10 22
EBIT adj. margin (%) 3 1,1 2,3
Pretax profit 11 9 19
EPS 0,19 -0,07 0,67
EPS growth (%) -88,5 -134,8 -1095,2
EPS adj. 0,89 -0,33 1,93
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 4 3,3 2,2
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 9,4 19,9 7,2
P/E (x) 81,4 -234,2 23,5
P/E adj. (x) 17,7 -47,2 8,2
EV/sales (x) 0,28 0,22 0,17
FCF yield (%) -15,5 12,8 21,8
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -15,5 12,8 21,8
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 0,7 0,2 -0,4
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 0,6 0,2 0,4
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 790 904 931
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 790 904 931
Other operating items -736 -845 -860
EBITDA 54 59 71
Depreciation and amortisation -10 -10 -13
of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 45 48 58
EO Items -9 2 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -31 -36 -36
EBIT 14 12 22
Net financial items -3 -3 -3
Pretax profit 11 9 19
Tax -9 -9 -11
Net profit 2 -1 8
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 2 -1 8
EPS 0,19 -0,07 0,67
EPS adj. 0,89 -0,33 1,93
Total extraordinary items after tax -2 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 80,1 109 59,4
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 6,9 6,5 7,6
EBITA margin (%) 5,7 5,4 6,2
EBIT margin (%) 1,8 1,3 2,3
Pre-tax margin (%) 1,4 1 2,1
Net margin (%) 0,3 -0,1 0,8
Sales growth (%) 30 14,4 3
EBITDA growth (%) 4,9 7,7 20,4
EBITA growth (%) 5,1 7,8 19,2
EBIT growth (%) -42,1 -13,7 80,5
Net profit growth (%) -85,5 -134,8 -1095,2
EPS growth (%) -88,5 -134,8 -1095,2
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) 1,6 -0,5 5,3
ROE adj. (%) 25,2 25,3 29,7
ROCE (%) 6,3 5,9 11,1
ROCE adj. (%) 24,5 22,5 29,6
ROIC (%) 5,5 -2,6 16,6
ROIC adj. (%) 6,7 -2,5 16,6
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 64 56 71
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 8,1 6,2 7,6
EBITDA lease adj. 64 56 71
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 8,1 6,2 7,6
EBITA adj. 54 46 58
EBITA adj. margin (%) 6,9 5,1 6,2
EBIT adj. 23 10 22
EBIT adj. margin (%) 3 1,1 2,3
Pretax profit Adj. 52 43 55
Net profit Adj. 35 36 44
Net profit to shareholders adj. 35 36 44
Net adj. margin (%) 4,4 4 4,7
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
EBITDA 54 59 71
Goodwill 195 159 123
Net financial items -3 -3 -3
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Paid tax -9 -9 -11
Tangible fixed assets 50 62 68
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Right-of-use asset N/A N/A N/A
Cash flow before change in WC 43 46 57
Total other fixed assets 0 0 0
Change in working capital -1 -4 2
Fixed assets 245 221 191
Operating cash flow 42 42 58
Inventories 0 0 0
Capex tangible fixed assets -10 -23 -19
Receivables 57 72 74
Capex intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and Disposals -60 4 0
Cash and liquid assets 42 34 74
Free cash flow -28 23 40
Total assets 345 328 339
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 140 143 151
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Minority 0 0 0
Leasing liability amortisation 0 0 0
Total equity 140 143 151
Other non-cash items -2 0 0
Long-term debt 30 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 10 10 10
Short-term debt 48 47 47
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 116 127 130
Total liabilities and equity 345 328 339
Net IB debt 37 13 -26
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 37 13 -26
Net IB debt excl. leasing 37 13 -26
Capital employed 219 191 199
Capital invested 177 157 125
Working capital -58 -54 -56
Market cap. diluted (m) 182 182 182
Net IB debt adj. 37 13 -26
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 219 196 156
Total assets turnover (%) 230,5 268,8 279
Working capital/sales (%) -7,4 -6,2 -5,9
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) 26,1 9,2 -17,5
Net debt / market cap (%) 20,1 7,3 -14,5
Equity ratio (%) 40,7 43,8 44,6
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 26,1 9,2 -17,5
Current ratio 0,61 0,62 0,84
EBITDA/net interest 20,1 17,3 27
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 0,7 0,2 -0,4
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 0,6 0,2 -0,4
Interest coverage 16,6 14,3 22,1
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Shares outstanding adj. 12 12 12
Diluted shares adj. 12 12 12
EPS 0,19 -0,07 0,67
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. 0,89 -0,33 1,93
BVPS 12,07 12,35 13,01
BVPS adj. -4,77 -1,36 2,41
Net IB debt/share 3,15 1,14 -2,28
Share price 15,7 15,7 15,7
Market cap. (m) 182 182 182
P/E (x) 81,4 -234,2 23,5
EV/sales (x) 0,28 0,22 0,17
EV/EBITDA (x) 4 3,3 2,2
EV/EBITA (x) 4,9 4 2,7
EV/EBIT (x) 15,7 16,3 7,2
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -15,5 12,8 21,8
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -15,5 12,8 21,8
P/BVPS (x) 1,3 1,27 1,21
P/BVPS adj. (x) -3,29 -11,57 6,51
P/E adj. (x) 17,7 -47,2 8,2
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 3,4 3,5 2,2
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 4 4,2 2,7
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 9,4 19,9 7,2
EV/CE (x) 1 1 0,8
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 1,3 2,5 2
Capex/depreciation 1 2,2 1,4
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 20,1 36,4 27,5
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 19,33 16,55 19,06

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Niklas Pålsson 19.1 % 19.1 % 17 Oct 2022
Håkan Söderström 15.6 % 15.6 % 28 Dec 2022
Daniel Andersson 15.5 % 15.5 % 28 Dec 2022
Christian Drougge 11.2 % 11.2 % 28 Dec 2022
David Sandgren 8.0 % 8.0 % 28 Sep 2022
FE Fonder 5.2 % 5.2 % 28 Feb 2023
Endel Viitberg 2.4 % 2.4 % 28 Dec 2022
Avanza Pension 2.1 % 2.1 % 28 Dec 2022
Svenska Handelsbanken AB for PB 2.0 % 2.0 % 28 Dec 2022
Cicero Fonder 1.2 % 1.2 % 28 Feb 2023
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB