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Cedergrenska

Cedergrenska

Cedergrenska is a Swedish independent educational provider founded in 2007. It offers a broad range of education, from preschools to higher vocational education. The majority of revenues stem from compulsory and upper secondary schools located in the northeast Stockholm region. The company runs its schools under a framework called “The Cedergrenska model”, which is based on geographical clusters where schools within cooperate to enhance education, create attractive workplaces and reach economies of scale.

Ever since the Swedish school market was de-regulated in 1992, independent schools have grown in popularity. A positive demographic outlook in conjunction with an ongoing urbanisation creates a need for new schools to be built, which independent actors like Cedergrenska can benefit from. In addition, the independent school market still contains many small players that may be of interest to the company to acquire.

The two key operational risks the company faces are sufficient funding from the school vouchers and political reforms. Swedish municipalities are facing economic constraints from an ageing population and there is concern about how this will translate to school vouchers. Furthermore, the political landscape is far from predictable, and we cannot rule out reforms that will be negative for independent school actors in the future.

SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 608 751 862
Sales growth (%) 20,4 23,6 14,7
EBITDA 52 68 78
EBITDA margin (%) 8,5 9,1 9
EBIT adj 31 33 35
EBIT adj margin (%) 5,1 4,4 4,1
Pretax profit 22 27 34
EPS rep 1,67 1,27 1,74
EPS growth (%) 8 -24,1 37,3
EPS adj 2,39 1,63 1,74
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 5,3 3,6 2,6
EV/EBIT adj (x) 9 7,4 5,7
P/E (x) 17,2 14,3 10,4
P/E adj (x) 12,1 11,2 10,4
EV/sales (x) 0,5 0,3 0,2
FCF yield (%) -1,2 -12,6 20,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 0,2 0,5 -0,1
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -1,2 -12,6 20,9
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 0,1 0,5 -0,1
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EPS 1,67 1,27 1,74
EPS Adj 2,39 1,63 1,74
Total extraordinary items after tax -6,6 -4,1 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -30,3 -44,5 -40,1
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 8,5 9,1 9
EBITA margin (%) 7 7,8 7,8
EBIT margin (%) 4 3,9 4,1
Pretax margin (%) 3,6 3,5 3,9
Net margin (%) 2,5 2 2,3
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 20,4 23,6 14,7
EBITDA growth (%) -1,7 31,2 14,3
EBIT growth (%) -17,4 20,7 21
Net profit growth (%) -9,4 -4,8 37,3
EPS growth (%) 8 -24,1 37,3
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) 15,8 10,2 12,4
ROE Adj (%) 41,5 33,3 32,1
ROCE (%) 13 13,7 17,5
ROCE Adj(%) 26,5 29,5 33,4
ROIC (%) 11,6 9,2 11,5
ROIC Adj (%) 14,8 10,5 11,5
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 59 72 78
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 9,6 9,6 9
EBITDA lease Adj 59 72 78
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 9,6 9,6 9
EBITA Adj 49 63 67
EBITA Adj margin (%) 8,1 8,4 7,8
EBIT Adj 31 33 35
EBIT Adj margin (%) 5,1 4,4 4,1
Pretax profit Adj 47 60 66
Net profit Adj 41 48 52
Net profit to shareholders Adj 41 48 52
Net Adj margin (%) 6,6 6,4 6,1
Sales 608 751 862
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 608 751 862
Other operating items -556 -683 -784
EBITDA 52 68 78
Depreciation and amortisation -9 -10 -11
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 43 59 67
EO items -7 -4 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation -19 -30 -32
EBIT 24 29 35
Net financial items -2 -3 -1
Pretax profit 22 27 34
Tax -7 -12 -14
Net profit 15 15 20
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 15 15 20
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA 52 68 78
Net financial items -2 -3 -1
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items -13 -12 -14
Cash flow before change in WC 36 54 63
Change in WC 11 -10 3
Operating cash flow 47 43 66
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -14 -15 -22
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals -36 -55 0
Free cash flow -3 -27 44
Dividend paid -17 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 75 0 0
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items -32 -1 -12
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 166 191 159
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 48 53 64
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 0 0 0
Fixed assets 214 245 224
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 48 60 69
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 79 12 38
Total assets 341 317 331
Shareholders equity 138 153 173
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 138 153 173
Long-term debt 35 17 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 8 8 8
Short-term debt 52 30 29
Accounts payable 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 107 109 121
Total liabilities and equity 341 317 331
Net IB debt 8 35 -9
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 8 35 -9
Net IB debt excl. leasing 8 35 -9
Capital invested 155 196 172
Working capital -59 -49 -51
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 267 211 211
Net IB debt Adj 8 35 -9
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 275 246 202
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 212,1 228,3 265,8
Working capital / sales (%) -9,1 -7,2 -5,8
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) 6,1 22,8 -5,4
Net debt / market cap (%) 2,3 16,5 -4,4
Equity ratio (%) 40,5 48,2 52,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 6,1 22,8 -5,4
Current ratio (%) 79,8 52,2 71,8
EBITDA / net interest (%) 2388,1 2698,8 5516,4
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 16,1 51,2 -11,9
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 14,3 48,3 -11,9
Interest cover (%) 1963,2 2321,6 4763,7
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Shares outstanding adj. 9 12 12
Fully diluted shares Adj 9 12 12
EPS 1,67 1,27 1,74
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 2,39 1,63 1,74
BVPS 14,9 13,15 14,89
BVPS Adj -3,05 -3,36 1,15
Net IB debt / share 0,9 3 -0,8
Share price 39,49 18,2 18,2
Market cap. (m) 365 211 211
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E 17,2 14,3 10,4
EV/sales 0,45 0,33 0,23
EV/EBITDA 5,3 3,6 2,6
EV/EBITA 6,4 4,2 3
EV/EBIT 11,4 8,5 5,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -1,2 -12,6 20,9
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -1,2 -12,6 20,9
P/BVPS 1,94 1,38 1,22
P/BVPS Adj -9,47 -5,42 15,86
P/E Adj 12,1 11,2 10,4
EV/EBITDA Adj 4,7 3,4 2,6
EV/EBITA Adj 5,6 3,9 3
EV/EBIT Adj 9 7,4 5,7
EV/cap. employed 1,2 1,2 1
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 2,3 2 2,5
Capex / depreciation 153,9 157,8 202,8
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 29,8 28,2 33,6
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 19,4 17,9 16,6

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Niklas Pålsson 18.2 % 18.2 % 28 Jun 2022
Håkan Söderström 15.6 % 15.6 % 24 May 2021
Daniel Andersson 11.0 % 11.0 % 28 Jun 2022
Christian Drougge 10.8 % 10.8 % 28 Jun 2022
David Sandgren 9.9 % 9.9 % 24 May 2021
Enter Fonder 5.2 % 5.2 % 31 Jul 2022
FE Fonder 5.2 % 5.2 % 31 Jul 2022
Endel Viitberg 2.4 % 2.4 % 28 Jun 2022
Avanza Pension 1.9 % 1.9 % 28 Jun 2022
Ulf Jönsson 1.6 % 1.6 % 28 Jun 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB