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Axactor

Axactor

Axactor is a pan-European debt collector with operations in Finland, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain and Sweden. Headquartered in Oslo, Norway, Axactor was established in late 2015 and has grown to become one of the ten-largest players in the industry, with support from its cornerstone- and co-investor Geveran. Its core business areas are purchased debt and 3PC (third-party collection), focusing on well-developed NPL markets with a legal environment beneficial for collection. Through its streamlined “One Axactor” operating model, it has developed a scalable, no legacy and low-complexity NPL platform.

We believe that Axactor and the industry as a whole will benefit from an increased supply of NPLs, further increasing the imbalance in the NPL market, leading to a prolonged period of lower NPL prices and thus increased IRRs. In addition, we see strong opportunities for growth within 3PC (third-party collection), which is capital light and highly recurring revenue. On a more company-specific note, Axactor might be attractive to private equity, given its best-in-class scalability. In addition, we anticipate improved funding cost, phased-out REOs, lowered tax-rate and increased scale to further increase earnings.

Investment risk, macro risk and regulatory risk are the biggest risks in the Axactor investment case. We see investment risk as the largest risk as we estimate that the company will have high capex going forward, and an investment into a ‘bad’ portfolio and/or company could have a detrimental impact on earnings in the coming years. Furthermore, changes in the macro environment could affect cash collection and the 3PC business.

EURm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 156 240 254
Sales growth (%) -5,4 54,4 5,7
EBITDA 43 117 121
EBITDA margin (%) 27,4 48,6 47,7
EBIT adj 95 108 112
EBIT adj margin (%) 61,1 44,8 44,2
Pretax profit -22 54 57
EPS rep -0,1 0,09 0,13
EPS growth (%) -22,6 185,6 47,9
EPS adj 0,14 0,13 0,14
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 24 9,2 9,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 10,7 9,9 9,9
P/E (x) -7,5 7 4,7
P/E adj (x) 5,5 4,6 4,3
EV/sales (x) 6,6 4,5 4,4
FCF yield (%) -51,6 -140,8 -135,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 18,6 7,6 7,7
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -51,6 -140,8 -135,1
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 0 0 0
EURm 2021 2022e 2023e
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Sales 156 240 254
COGS -113 -124 -133
Gross profit 43 117 121
Other operating items 0 0 0
EBITDA 43 117 121
Depreciation on tangibles -11 -10 -10
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 33 108 112
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 33 108 112
Other financial items -1 0 0
Net financial items -53 -54 -56
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 11 0 0
Pretax profit -22 54 57
Tax -5 -15 -14
Net profit -27 39 42
Minority interest 13 1 0
Net profit discontinued -17 -14 -4
Net profit to shareholders -30 26 39
EPS -0,1 0,09 0,13
EPS Adj 0,14 0,13 0,14
Total extraordinary items after tax -55,7 0,3 0
Tax rate (%) 24,3 -28 -25
Gross margin (%) 27,6 48,6 47,7
EBITDA margin (%) 27,4 48,6 47,7
EBITA margin (%) 21,2 44,9 44,2
EBIT margin (%) 21,2 44,9 44,2
Pretax margin (%) -14 22,4 22,3
Net margin (%) -17,4 16,2 16,7
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) -5,4 54,4 5,7
EBITDA growth (%) -25 173,9 3,9
EBIT growth (%) -28,3 227,2 4
Net profit growth (%) -167,1 243,1 9,3
EPS growth (%) -22,6 185,6 47,9
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) -8,9 6,6 8,9
ROE Adj (%) 12,2 9,9 9,8
ROCE (%) 2,5 8,5 8,2
ROCE Adj(%) 7,5 8,5 8,2
ROIC (%) 3,3 6,2 6,2
ROIC Adj (%) 9,6 6,2 6,2
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 105 117 121
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 67,3 48,5 47,7
EBITA Adj 95 108 112
EBITA Adj margin (%) 61,1 44,9 44,2
EBIT Adj 95 108 112
EBIT Adj margin (%) 61,1 44,8 44,2
Pretax profit Adj 42 54 57
Net profit Adj 29 39 42
Net profit to shareholders Adj 42 39 42
Net Adj margin (%) 18,4 16 16,7
Depreciation and amortisation -10 -9 -9
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EO items -62 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 0 0 0
EURm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA 43 117 121
Net financial items -53 -54 -56
Paid tax -5 -15 -14
Non-cash items 16 -47 -51
Cash flow before change in WC 0 0 0
Change in WC 2 -7 0
Operating cash flow 2 -7 0
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -115 -241 -240
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -5 -7 -7
Acquisitions and disposals 0 -3 0
Free cash flow -118 -258 -247
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 187 109 202
Decrease in net IB debt -31 -20 -49
Balance Sheet (EURm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 56 63 63
Indefinite intangible assets 20 20 20
Definite intangible assets 15 15 15
Tangible fixed assets 1125 1309 1394
Other fixed assets 1 1 1
Fixed assets 1226 1421 1506
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 7 7 8
Other current assets 16 12 13
Cash and liquid assets 44 23 26
Total assets 1293 1462 1552
Shareholders equity 380 415 454
Minority 1 -1 0
Total equity 381 414 454
Long-term debt 834 911 95
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 7 7 7
Other long-term liabilities 4 4 4
Short-term debt 4 0 861
Accounts payable 7 11 12
Other current liabilities 49 103 107
Total liabilities and equity 1293 1462 1552
Net IB debt 794 888 930
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 794 888 930
Capital invested 1182 1314 1396
Working capital -33 -95 -98
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 229 183 183
Net IB debt Adj 794 888 930
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1023 1071 1114
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 11,7 17,4 16,9
Capital invested turnover (%) 16,2 21 21,6
Capital employed turnover (%) 15,6 20,6 21,4
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 2,9 2,5 2,6
Working capital / sales (%) -16,7 -26,8 -38,1
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) 208,3 214,4 205
Net debt / market cap (%) 290 484,7 507,7
Equity ratio (%) 29,5 28,3 29,3
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 208,3 214,4 205
Current ratio (%) 111 36,5 4,7
EBITDA / net interest (%) 80,6 216 217,9
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 1864 761,1 767,7
Interest cover (%) 62,3 199,3 201,3
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 45 44 45
Right-of-use asset 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 0 4 4
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 17 23 23
Net IB debt excl. leasing 0 0 0
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 0 0 0
EURm 2021 2022e 2023e
Shares outstanding adj. 302 302 302
Fully diluted shares Adj 302 302 302
EPS -0,1 0,09 0,13
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,14 0,13 0,14
BVPS 1,26 1,37 1,5
BVPS Adj 0,98 1,08 1,2
Net IB debt / share 2,6 2,9 3,1
Share price 0,91 0,61 0,61
Market cap. (m) 274 183 183
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E -7,5 7 4,7
EV/sales 6,57 4,46 4,38
EV/EBITDA 24 9,2 9,2
EV/EBITA 31 9,9 9,9
EV/EBIT 31 9,9 9,9
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -51,6 -140,8 -135,1
P/BVPS 0,6 0,44 0,4
P/BVPS Adj 0,77 0,56 0,5
P/E Adj 5,5 4,6 4,3
EV/EBITDA Adj 9,8 9,2 9,2
EV/EBITA Adj 10,7 9,9 9,9
EV/EBIT Adj 10,7 9,9 9,9
EV/cap. employed 0,8 0,8 0,8
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 77 103,1 97,4
Capex / depreciation 1241,5 2796,2 2739
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 10,2 18,4 17,2
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 17,6 25,1 27,6
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0,9 0,7 0,6
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -51,6 -140,8 -135,1

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Media

Axactor - Company presentation with Cheif of Strategy & IR Kyrre Svae
Axactor - Company presentation with CEO Johnny Tsolis

Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
John Fredriksen 46.0 % 46.0 % 11 May 2022
Torstein Tvenge 3.3 % 3.3 % 11 May 2022
Nordea Fonder 2.8 % 2.8 % 11 May 2022
Ferd AS 2.6 % 2.6 % 11 May 2022
Endre Rangnes 1.2 % 1.2 % 11 May 2022
Dimensional Fund Advisors 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Mar 2022
Nordnet Livsforsikring AS 0.8 % 0.8 % 11 May 2022
Andrés López 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Dec 2019
David Martín 0.8 % 0.8 % 31 Dec 2019
Gvepseborg AS 0.7 % 0.7 % 11 May 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB