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Avensia

Avensia

IT company with innovative power

Avensia is an IT company, operating in the e-commerce niche. The primary focus is to help its customers increase sales within all channels available, i.e. Omni channels. Avensia mainly generates income through consultancy, but in addition the company commercializes products. The main product is the self-developed e-commerce system Storefront, which is a link between the ERP system Microsoft Dynamics and e-commerce platform Episerver. Avensia’s customer base comprises both B2B and B2C customers (approx. 50% each) in the Nordics as well as globally.

We see three risks for Avensia: 1) The high market growth within e-commerce might draw competition, which will put pressure on prices. Hence, both margins and revenue growth could decrease. 2) Avensia generates a big portion of its revenues through a high customer concentration, with the two biggest customers accounting for 27% of 2017 revenues. 3) Lately Avensia has invested significantly in new personnel. There is a risk that these new recruitments may not perform as well as anticipated.

SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 444 505 592
Sales growth (%) 13,8 13,8 17,2
EBITDA 31 39 53
EBITDA margin (%) 7 7,7 8,9
EBIT adj 23 24 38
EBIT adj margin (%) 5,3 4,8 6,4
Pretax profit 16 23 37
EPS rep 0,3 0,49 0,78
EPS growth (%) -38,5 62,8 60
EPS adj 0,49 0,49 0,78
DPS 0,55 0,7 0,85
EV/EBITDA (x) 16,1 13 9,5
EV/EBIT adj (x) 21,5 21 13,3
P/E (x) 45,9 28,2 17,6
P/E adj (x) 28,2 28,2 17,6
EV/sales (x) 1,1 1 0,9
FCF yield (%) 3,6 5,2 6,6
Dividend yield (%) 4 5,1 6,2
Net IB debt/EBITDA -0,2 -0,2 -0,1
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 2,2 3,8 5,2
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0,7 -0,7 -0,5
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Leasing payments -7 -7 -7
Depreciation and amortisation -15 -15 -15
Of which leasing depreciation -7 -7 -7
EO items -7 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj 31 32 46
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 7 6,3 7,7
Sales 444 505 592
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 444 505 592
Other operating items -413 -466 -539
EBITDA 31 39 53
Depreciation on tangibles -4 -4 -4
Depreciation on intangibles -4 -4 -4
EBITA 16 24 38
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 16 24 38
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 16 23 37
Tax -5 -5 -8
Net profit 11 18 29
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 11 18 29
EPS 0,3 0,49 0,78
EPS Adj 0,49 0,49 0,78
Total extraordinary items after tax -7 0 0
Tax rate (%) -29,8 -22 -22
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 7 7,7 8,9
EBITA margin (%) 3,7 4,8 6,4
EBIT margin (%) 3,7 4,8 6,4
Pretax margin (%) 3,6 4,6 6,3
Net margin (%) 2,5 3,6 4,9
Growth rates Y/Y 2022 2023 2024
Sales growth (%) 13,8 13,8 17,2
EBITDA growth (%) -27,2 24,8 35,8
EBIT growth (%) -29,5 46 58
Net profit growth (%) -38,3 62,8 60
EPS growth (%) -38,5 62,8 60
Profitability 2022 2023 2024
ROE (%) 18,4 34,3 54,5
ROE Adj (%) 30 34,3 54,5
ROCE (%) 21,3 34,4 54,2
ROCE Adj(%) 30,3 34,4 54,2
ROIC (%) 23 37,9 59,3
ROIC Adj (%) 32,8 37,9 59,3
Adj earnings numbers 2022 2023 2024
EBITDA Adj 38 39 53
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 8,6 7,7 8,9
EBITA Adj 23 24 38
EBITA Adj margin (%) 5,3 4,8 6,4
EBIT Adj 23 24 38
EBIT Adj margin (%) 5,3 4,8 6,4
Pretax profit Adj 23 23 37
Net profit Adj 18 18 29
Net profit to shareholders Adj 18 18 29
Net Adj margin (%) 4,1 3,6 4,9
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
EBITDA 31 39 53
Net financial items -1 -1 -1
Lease liability amortisation -7 -7 -7
Other intangible assets 5 4 4
Right-of-use asset 15 15 15
Total other fixed assets 0 0 0
Leasing liability 16 16 16
Total other long-term liabilities 3 3 3
Net IB debt excl. leasing -22 -22 -22
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -72,3 -67,5 -48,2
Paid tax -5 -5 -8
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 26 33 44
Change in WC -3 -1 -4
Operating cash flow 23 32 40
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -3 -4 -4
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -1 -1 -1
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 19 27 34
Dividend paid -24 -20 -26
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items 0 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt -8 6 11
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2022 2023 2024
Goodwill 2 2 2
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 13 16 19
Tangible fixed assets 4 2 1
Other fixed assets 1 1 1
Fixed assets 27 24 22
Inventories 0 0 0
Receivables 128 131 154
Other current assets 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 24 23 23
Total assets 178 178 199
Shareholders equity 54 52 55
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 54 52 55
Long-term debt 1 1 1
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 3 3 3
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 104 106 124
Other current liabilities 0 0 0
Total liabilities and equity 178 178 199
Net IB debt -7 -6 -7
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -7 -6 -7
Capital invested 50 49 51
Working capital 24 25 30
EV breakdown 2022 2023 2024
Market cap. diluted (m) 510 510 510
Net IB debt Adj -7 -6 -6
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 504 505 504
Capital efficiency (%) 2022 2023 2024
Total assets turnover (%) 249,1 284 314,2
Capital invested turnover (%) 700,3 675,1 697,2
Capital employed turnover (%) 419,4 442,7 444,2
Inventories / sales (%) 0 0 0
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 21,9 20,2 20,3
Working capital / sales (%) 5 4,9 4,6
Financial risk and debt service 2022 2023 2024
Net debt / equity (%) -13,1 -11,8 -12,2
Net debt / market cap (%) -1,4 -1,2 -1,3
Equity ratio (%) 30,3 29,1 27,5
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -12,5 -11,2 -11,6
Current ratio (%) 133,4 133,2 132,4
EBITDA / net interest (%) 5099 4868,4 6611,4
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -22,6 -15,6 -12,6
Interest cover (%) 2689,2 3002,9 4745,9
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 2,2 3,8 5,2
Shares outstanding adj. 37 37 37
Fully diluted shares Adj 37 37 37
EPS 0,3 0,49 0,78
Dividend per share Adj 0,6 0,7 0,9
EPS Adj 0,49 0,49 0,78
BVPS 1,45 1,39 1,47
BVPS Adj 1,27 1,23 1,32
Net IB debt / share -0,2 -0,2 -0,2
Share price 13,75 13,75 13,75
Market cap. (m) 510 510 510
Valuation 2022 2023 2024
P/E 45,9 28,2 17,6
EV/sales 1,13 1 0,85
EV/EBITDA 16,1 13 9,5
EV/EBITA 30,6 21 13,3
EV/EBIT 30,6 21 13,3
Dividend yield (%) 4 5,1 6,2
FCF yield (%) 3,6 5,2 6,6
P/BVPS 9,45 9,87 9,33
P/BVPS Adj 10,83 11,22 10,42
P/E Adj 28,2 28,2 17,6
EV/EBITDA Adj 13,2 13 9,5
EV/EBITA Adj 21,5 21 13,3
EV/EBIT Adj 21,5 21 13,3
EV/cap. employed 7,1 7,4 7
Investment ratios 2022 2023 2024
Capex / sales 1 1 1
Capex / depreciation 58 64,5 75,6
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 76,5 167,1 532,2
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 21,6 28,4 37,3
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 37,3 44,1 49,4
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 131,9 259 704,1

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Avensia - Company presentation with CFO Anders Wehtje
Avensia - Company presentation with CFO Anders Wehtje

Main shareholders - Avensia

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
A5 Invest AB 25.6 % 25.6 % 28 Dec 2022
Valid Asset Management i Skåne AB 21.5 % 21.5 % 28 Dec 2022
Anders Wehtje 11.0 % 11.0 % 28 Dec 2022
Aktia Asset Management 4.6 % 4.6 % 28 Dec 2022
Enter Fonder 4.3 % 4.3 % 31 Dec 2022
Chelverton Asset Management 4.2 % 4.2 % 31 Dec 2022
Cliens Fonder 3.1 % 3.1 % 28 Dec 2022
Avanza Pension 2.2 % 2.2 % 28 Dec 2022
Paul Daniel Jörgen Bertilsson 1.6 % 1.6 % 28 Dec 2022
Johan Liljeros 1.3 % 1.3 % 28 Dec 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Avensia

Name Quantity Code Date
Fredrik André + 8 000 BUY 13 Dec 2022
Robin Gustafsson + 2 094 BUY 1 Dec 2022
Robin Gustafsson + 1 500 BUY 30 Nov 2022
Robin Gustafsson + 2 648 BUY 29 Nov 2022
Robin Gustafsson + 1 978 BUY 25 Nov 2022
Robin Gustafsson + 1 BUY 22 Nov 2022
Robin Gustafsson + 3 867 BUY 21 Nov 2022
Robin Gustafsson + 1 802 BUY 18 Nov 2022
Robin Gustafsson + 8 027 BUY 16 Nov 2022
Robin Gustafsson + 2 019 BUY 15 Nov 2022

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