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Aros Bostad

Aros Bostad

Aros is one of the larger residential developers in the greater Stockholm region. It mainly develops apartments for the mid+ segment but also for the affordable housing segment. Aros operates a relatively slim organisation with e.g. outsourced construction. Aros’ projects are increasingly being developed on its own balance sheet, compared to in fund structures and joint ventures as it has mainly been historically. The company intends to develop a portfolio of investment properties to secure steady income streams. Aros ordinary shares were listed on First North in 2021: the main shareholders are Vencom and ALM (since H2’22).

Low/negative GDP and population growth, demographic changes, high inflation and/or interest rates are all risk factors for Aros, as it may reduce customers’ purchasing power and/or willingness to buy new homes. Rising input costs for construction as well as changes in legislation and/or politics are also significant risk factors for the company. Finally, Aros is exposed to the risk of declining property values, and banks/lenders’ willingness to provide suitable financing.

SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 544 935 1522
Sales growth (%) 410,4 72 62,8
EBITDA 65 119 247
EBITDA margin (%) 12 12,7 16,3
EBIT adj 62 116 245
EBIT adj margin (%) 11,4 12,5 16,1
Pretax profit 59 112 232
EPS rep 1,67 2,6 3,94
EPS growth (%) 28 56,4 51,4
EPS adj 0,49 1,51 2,86
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 31,8 16,2 9,6
EV/EBIT adj (x) 33,4 16,6 9,7
P/E (x) 37,3 16,2 10,7
P/E adj (x) 126,4 27,9 14,7
EV/sales (x) 3,8 2,1 1,6
FCF yield (%) 1,2 -54,6 -14,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA -1,7 1,9 1,1
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 1,2 -54,6 -14,5
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -1,7 1,9 1,1
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 544 935 1522
COGS -400 -725 -1166
Gross profit 144 209 356
Other operating items -79 -90 -108
EBITDA 65 119 247
Depreciation and amortisation -3 -3 -2
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EBITA 62 116 245
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 62 116 245
Net financial items -3 -4 -12
Pretax profit 59 112 232
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit 59 112 232
Minority interest -42 -47 -64
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 17 65 169
EPS 1,67 2,6 3,94
EPS Adj 0,49 1,51 2,86
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 0
Gross margin (%) 26,5 22,4 23,4
EBITDA margin (%) 12 12,7 16,3
EBITA margin (%) 11,4 12,5 16,1
EBIT margin (%) 11,4 12,5 16,1
Pretax margin (%) 10,9 12 15,3
Net margin (%) 10,9 12 15,3
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 410,4 72 62,8
EBITDA growth (%) 46,4 82,8 107,8
EBIT growth (%) 39,3 87,8 110,3
Net profit growth (%) 40,6 90,4 107
EPS growth (%) 28 56,4 51,4
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) 15,8 12,1 15,4
ROE Adj (%) 15,8 12,1 15,4
ROCE (%) 7,2 8,3 11
ROCE Adj(%) 7,2 8,3 11
ROIC (%) 9,5 9,1 11,4
ROIC Adj (%) 9,5 9,1 11,4
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 65 119 247
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 12 12,7 16,3
EBITDA lease Adj 65 119 247
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 12 12,7 16,3
EBITA Adj 62 116 245
EBITA Adj margin (%) 11,4 12,5 16,1
EBIT Adj 62 116 245
EBIT Adj margin (%) 11,4 12,5 16,1
Pretax profit Adj 59 112 232
Net profit Adj 59 112 232
Net profit to shareholders Adj 17 65 169
Net Adj margin (%) 10,9 12 15,3
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA 65 119 247
Net financial items -3 -4 -12
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 62 115 235
Change in WC -36 -1109 -595
Operating cash flow 26 -994 -360
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow 26 -994 -360
Dividend paid 0 -16 -64
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 65
Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0
Other non cash items 291 653 304
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Right-of-use asset 1 0 0
Total other fixed assets 154 199 199
Fixed assets 155 199 199
Inventories 534 1662 2242
Receivables 52 51 68
Other current assets 35 47 47
Cash and liquid assets 200 32 111
Total assets 977 1991 2668
Shareholders equity 255 823 1364
Minority 565 808 808
Total equity 820 1631 2173
Long-term debt 19 190 294
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 68 71 99
Accounts payable 12 6 7
Other current liabilities 58 94 95
Total liabilities and equity 977 1991 2668
Net IB debt -114 228 281
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -114 228 281
Net IB debt excl. leasing -114 228 281
Capital invested 706 1859 2454
Working capital 552 1660 2255
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 2184 1705 2103
Net IB debt Adj -114 228 281
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 2070 1933 2384
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 54,7 63 65,3
Working capital / sales (%) 98,2 118,3 128,6
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) -13,9 14 12,9
Net debt / market cap (%) -5,8 13,4 13,4
Equity ratio (%) 83,9 81,9 81,4
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -13,9 14 12,9
Current ratio (%) 594,8 1050 1224,4
EBITDA / net interest (%) 2175,4 2880 1987,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) -174,9 191,4 113,7
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) -174,9 191,4 113,7
Interest cover (%) 2070,2 2816,5 1967,8
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
P/BVPS Adj 1,11 0,71 0,67
P/E Adj 126,4 27,9 14,7
EV/EBITDA Adj 31,8 16,2 9,6
EV/EBITA Adj 33,4 16,6 9,7
EV/EBIT Adj 33,4 16,6 9,7
EV/cap. employed 2,3 1 0,9
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 0 0 0
Capex / depreciation 0 0 0
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 2032,9 10088,2 9541,5
Shares outstanding adj. 35 40 50
Fully diluted shares Adj 35 40 50
EPS 1,67 2,6 3,94
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0,49 1,51 2,86
BVPS 7,26 20,36 27,38
BVPS Adj 55,73 59,85 62,95
Net IB debt / share -3,2 5,6 5,6
Share price 56,06 42,2 42,2
Market cap. (m) 1971 1705 2103
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E 37,3 16,2 10,7
EV/sales 3,81 2,07 1,57
EV/EBITDA 31,8 16,2 9,6
EV/EBITA 33,4 16,6 9,7
EV/EBIT 33,4 16,6 9,7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 1,2 -54,6 -14,5
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) 1,2 -54,6 -14,5
P/BVPS 8,56 2,07 1,54

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