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Arise

Arise

Market-leader with focus on cash flow

Arise is an integrated wind power company in the Nordics, managing the entire value chain - from exploration and permitting, to financing, construction, divestment, and long-term management of its own and other companies' wind farms. The company’s general goal is to give its shareholders a good return in the form of dividends and capital growth through efficient funding, management operation and project development in the area of renewable energy.

Political ambition of 100% renewable energy is an obvious driver for realisation of Arise’s project portfolio. A lower cost per KWh and increased attractiveness of the Scandinavian wind market are also favourable for the company.

Direct and indirect exposure to electricity price fluctuations, potential shifts in political action, impairment and building risks.

SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Sales 279 703 859
Sales growth (%) 114,6 151,9 22,2
EBITDA 142 460 563
EBITDA margin (%) 50,9 65,4 65,5
EBIT adj 83 400 506
EBIT adj margin (%) 29,6 56,9 58,9
Pretax profit 57 376 487
EPS rep 1,48 9,04 10,33
EPS growth (%) 148 512,4 14,2
EPS adj 1,48 9,04 10,33
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 15,3 4,6 3,2
EV/EBIT adj (x) 26,3 5,3 3,6
P/E (x) 30,9 4,7 4,1
P/E adj (x) 30,9 4,7 4,1
EV/sales (x) 7,8 3 2,1
FCF yield (%) -0,2 4,9 17,4
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 3 0,8 0,1
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -0,5 4,3 16,9
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 2,7 0,6 0
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Leasing payments -8 -11 -14
Sales 279 703 859
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 279 703 859
Other operating items -137 -243 -296
EBITDA 142 460 563
Depreciation on tangibles -62 -60 -54
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0
EBITA 79 400 506
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT 79 400 506
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items -21 -24 -19
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit 57 376 487
Tax 0 0 -48
Net profit 57 376 439
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 57 376 439
EPS 1,48 9,04 10,33
EPS Adj 1,48 9,04 10,33
Total extraordinary items after tax -4 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 -9,8
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 50,9 65,4 65,5
EBITA margin (%) 28,1 56,9 58,9
EBIT margin (%) 28,1 56,9 58,9
Pretax margin (%) 20,5 53,5 56,7
Net margin (%) 20,5 53,5 51,2
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 114,6 151,9 22,2
EBITDA growth (%) 325,3 223,5 22,4
EBIT growth (%) 314,6 409,5 26,4
Net profit growth (%) 152,6 558,1 16,9
EPS growth (%) 148 512,4 14,2
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) 8,3 43,5 34,6
ROE Adj (%) 8,9 43,5 34,6
ROCE (%) 6,1 27,1 26,3
ROCE Adj(%) 6,4 27,1 26,3
ROIC (%) 6,7 31,8 30,9
ROIC Adj (%) 7,1 31,8 30,9
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj 146 460 563
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 52,4 65,4 65,5
EBITA Adj 83 400 506
EBITA Adj margin (%) 29,6 56,9 58,9
EBIT Adj 83 400 506
EBIT Adj margin (%) 29,6 56,9 58,9
Pretax profit Adj 61 376 487
Net profit Adj 61 376 439
Net profit to shareholders Adj 61 376 439
Net Adj margin (%) 21,9 53,5 51,2
Depreciation and amortisation -64 -60 -57
Of which leasing depreciation -8 -11 -14
EO items -4 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj 138 449 549
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 49,5 63,9 63,9
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
EBITDA 142 460 563
Net financial items -21 -24 -19
Paid tax 0 0 -48
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC 121 436 497
Change in WC -72 -279 -102
Operating cash flow 49 156 395
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -30 -70 -86
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals -23 0 0
Free cash flow -4 86 309
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Other non cash items -69 160 -8
Decrease in net IB debt 24 92 513
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 1168 1189 1232
Other fixed assets 17 40 40
Fixed assets 1298 1261 1300
Inventories 1 4 4
Receivables 14 35 43
Other current assets 127 246 344
Cash and liquid assets 70 276 575
Total assets 1511 1823 2266
Shareholders equity 676 1052 1491
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 676 1052 1491
Long-term debt 370 564 564
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt 147 22 22
Accounts payable 15 38 34
Other current liabilities 195 35 43
Total liabilities and equity 1511 1823 2266
Net IB debt 430 355 56
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 430 355 56
Capital invested 1106 1406 1547
Working capital -67 212 314
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 1743 1772 1772
Net IB debt Adj 430 355 56
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 2172 2127 1828
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 19,1 42,2 42
Capital invested turnover (%) 10 27,2 77,4
Capital employed turnover (%) 8,5 24,5 57,8
Inventories / sales (%) 3,5 1,1 0,9
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 0 0
Payables / sales (%) 7,4 2,8 1,5
Working capital / sales (%) -8,8 10,3 30,6
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) 63,6 33,7 3,7
Net debt / market cap (%) 24,8 20 3,1
Equity ratio (%) 44,7 57,7 65,8
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) 63,6 33,7 3,7
Current ratio (%) 59,2 573,2 944,6
EBITDA / net interest (%) 664 1901,3 3022,6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 302,3 77,1 9,9
Interest cover (%) 366,8 1654,1 2715,8
Lease liability amortisation -5 -10 -10
Other intangible assets 0 0 0
Right-of-use asset 55 54 50
Total other fixed assets 75 18 18
Leasing liability 58 63 63
Total other long-term liabilities 50 49 49
Net IB debt excl. leasing 372 292 -7
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 269,1 65 -1,3
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Shares outstanding adj. 38 42 42
Fully diluted shares Adj 38 42 42
EPS 1,48 9,04 10,33
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj 1,48 9,04 10,33
BVPS 17,73 25,34 35,93
BVPS Adj 17,73 25,34 35,93
Net IB debt / share 11,3 8,5 1,3
Share price 45,35 42,7 42,7
Market cap. (m) 1729 1772 1772
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E 30,9 4,7 4,1
EV/sales 7,79 3,03 2,13
EV/EBITDA 15,3 4,6 3,2
EV/EBITA 27,7 5,3 3,6
EV/EBIT 27,7 5,3 3,6
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -0,2 4,9 17,4
P/BVPS 2,58 1,68 1,19
P/BVPS Adj 2,58 1,68 1,19
P/E Adj 30,9 4,7 4,1
EV/EBITDA Adj 14,9 4,6 3,2
EV/EBITA Adj 26,3 5,3 3,6
EV/EBIT Adj 26,3 5,3 3,6
EV/cap. employed 1,7 1,3 0,9
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 10,8 10 10
Capex / depreciation 54 144,1 199,1
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 2,6 5,9 7
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 4,8 4,1 3,5
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -0,5 4,3 16,9

Equity research

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Media

Arise - Company presentation with CEO Per-Erik Eriksson
Arise - Company presentation with CEO Daniel Johansson

Main shareholders - Arise

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Claesson & Anderzén 21.4 % 21.4 % 11 Mar 2022
Axel Johnson Gruppen 12.3 % 12.3 % 31 Dec 2021
Tredje AP-fonden 9.8 % 9.8 % 31 Mar 2022
Johan Claesson 6.2 % 6.2 % 11 Mar 2022
Länsförsäkringar Fonder 2.5 % 2.5 % 31 May 2022
Alcur Fonder 2.5 % 2.5 % 30 Apr 2022
Andra AP-fonden 2.1 % 2.1 % 31 Mar 2022
Avanza Pension 1.8 % 1.8 % 31 Mar 2022
Skandia Fonder 1.7 % 1.7 % 31 May 2022
DNB Fonder 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 May 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Arise

Name Quantity Code Date
Joachim Gahm + 3 333 SUBS 14 Mar 2022
Johan Damne 1 938 350 KONV 2 Mar 2022
Joachim Gahm 162 966 KONV 1 Mar 2022
Joachim Gahm 3 300 KONV 1 Mar 2022
Johan Damne 166 666 KONV 1 Mar 2022
Johan Damne 3 333 KONV 28 Feb 2022
Johan Damne + 30 000 BUY 4 Sep 2020
Johan Damne -42 643 714 Received loan 26 Mar 2020
Johan Damne +7 415 258 BUY 26 Mar 2020
Johan Damne +3 666 652 BUY 26 Mar 2020

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