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Arise

Arise

Market-leader with focus on cash flow

Arise is an integrated wind power company in the Nordics, managing the entire value chain - from exploration and permitting, to financing, construction, divestment, and long-term management of its own and other companies' wind farms. The company’s general goal is to give its shareholders a good return in the form of dividends and capital growth through efficient funding, management operation and project development in the area of renewable energy.

Direct and indirect exposure to electricity price fluctuations, potential shifts in political action, impairment and building risks.

SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 1176 507 916
Sales growth (%) 321,3 -56,9 80,7
EBITDA 867 278 599
EBITDA margin (%) 73,8 54,8 65,4
EBIT adj. 807 212 537
EBIT adj. margin (%) 68,6 41,7 58,6
Pretax profit 782 184 517
EPS 18,21 3,74 9,13
EPS growth (%) 1115,9 -79,4 143,8
EPS adj. 18,21 3,74 9,13
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) 2,4 7,3 2,8
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 2,5 9,6 3,1
P/E (x) 2,8 13,6 5,6
P/E adj. (x) 2,8 13,6 5,6
EV/sales (x) 1,75 4,02 1,81
FCF yield (%) 26,1 4,4 17,4
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 25,7 3,9 17
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -0,2 -0,8 -1
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 0,2 1,1 1,1
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Sales 1176 507 916
COGS 0 0 0
Gross profit 1176 507 916
Other operating items -308 -229 -317
EBITDA 867 278 599
Depreciation and amortisation -60 -66 -62
of which leasing depreciation -9 -14 -16
EBITA 807 212 537
EO Items 0 0 0
EBIT 807 212 537
Net financial items -25 -28 -20
Pretax profit 782 184 517
Tax 0 -17 -111
Net profit 782 166 406
Net profit to shareholders 782 166 406
EPS 18,21 3,74 9,13
EPS adj. 18,21 3,74 9,13
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Leasing payments -9 -14 -16
Tax rate (%) 0 9,4 21,5
Gross margin (%) 100 100 100
EBITDA margin (%) 73,8 54,8 65,4
EBITA margin (%) 68,6 41,7 58,6
EBIT margin (%) 68,6 41,7 58,6
Pre-tax margin (%) 66,6 36,2 56,4
Net margin (%) 66,6 32,8 44,3
Growth Rates y-o-y N/A N/A N/A
Sales growth (%) 321,3 -56,9 80,7
EBITDA growth (%) 510,4 -68 115,7
EBITA growth (%) 928 -73,8 153,7
EBIT growth (%) N/A -73,8 N/A
Net profit growth (%) 1270,2 -78,7 143,8
EPS growth (%) 1115,9 -79,4 143,8
Profitability N/A N/A N/A
ROE (%) 73,3 10,8 22,2
ROE adj. (%) 73,3 10,8 22,2
ROCE (%) 43,1 8,2 18,7
ROCE adj. (%) 43,1 8,2 18,7
ROIC (%) 66,3 16,9 46,1
ROIC adj. (%) 66,3 16,9 46,1
Adj. earnings numbers N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA adj. 867 278 599
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 73,8 54,8 65,4
EBITDA lease adj. 858 264 584
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) 73 52 63,7
EBITA adj. 807 212 537
EBITA adj. margin (%) 68,6 41,7 58,6
EBIT adj. 807 212 537
EBIT adj. margin (%) 68,6 41,7 58,6
Pretax profit Adj. 782 184 517
Net profit Adj. 782 166 406
Net profit to shareholders adj. 782 166 406
Net adj. margin (%) 66,6 32,8 44,3
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
EBITDA 867 278 599
Goodwill 0 0 0
Net financial items -25 -28 -20
Tangible fixed assets 1438 1447 1510
Paid tax 0 -17 -111
Right-of-use asset 56 52 47
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Total other fixed assets 75 75 75
Cash flow before change in WC 843 233 468
Fixed assets 1569 1574 1631
Change in working capital 48 -73 35
Inventories 6 3 5
Operating cash flow 891 160 503
Receivables 59 25 46
Capex tangible fixed assets -141 -61 -110
Other current assets 235 101 183
Acquisitions and Disposals -180 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 1093 1182 1565
Free cash flow 570 99 393
Total assets 2962 2885 3430
Leasing liability amortisation -10 -10 -10
Shareholders equity 1458 1625 2030
Other non-cash items 0 0 0
Total equity 1458 1625 2030
Long-term debt 960 960 960
Leasing liability 58 58 58
Total other long-term liabilities 50 50 50
Short-term debt 20 20 20
Accounts payable 63 20 37
Other current liabilities 353 152 275
Total liabilities and equity 2962 2885 3430
Net IB debt -130 -219 -602
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -130 -219 -602
Net IB debt excl. leasing -188 -277 -660
Capital employed 2496 2663 3068
Capital invested 1328 1406 1428
Working capital -116 -43 -78
EV breakdown N/A N/A N/A
Market cap. diluted (m) 2183 2258 2258
Net IB debt adj. -130 -219 -602
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 2053 2038 1656
Total assets turnover (%) 52,6 17,3 29
Working capital/sales (%) -7,8 -15,7 -6,6
Financial risk and debt service N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -8,9 -13,5 -29,6
Net debt / market cap (%) -6 -9,7 -26,7
Equity ratio (%) 49,2 56,3 59,2
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -8,9 -13,5 -29,6
Current ratio 3,2 6,82 5,43
EBITDA/net interest 35,3 9,9 30
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) -0,2 -0,8 -1
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) -0,2 -1,1 -1,1
Interest coverage 31,1 7,6 26,8
SEKm 2022 2023e 2024e
Shares outstanding adj. 43 44 44
Diluted shares adj. 43 44 44
EPS 18,21 3,74 9,13
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. 18,21 3,74 9,13
BVPS 33,94 36,56 45,69
BVPS adj. 33,94 36,56 45,69
Net IB debt/share -3,03 -4,93 -13,54
Share price 50,8 50,8 50,8
Market cap. (m) 2183 2258 2258
Valuation N/A N/A N/A
P/E (x) 2,8 13,6 5,6
EV/sales (x) 1,75 4,02 1,81
EV/EBITDA (x) 2,4 7,3 2,8
EV/EBITA (x) 2,5 9,6 3,1
EV/EBIT (x) 2,5 9,6 3,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 26,1 4,4 17,4
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) 25,7 3,9 17
P/BVPS (x) 1,5 1,39 1,11
P/BVPS adj. (x) 1,5 1,39 1,11
P/E adj. (x) 2,8 13,6 5,6
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 2,4 7,3 2,8
EV/EBITA adj. (x) 2,5 9,6 3,1
EV/EBIT adj. (x) 2,5 9,6 3,1
EV/CE (x) 0,8 0,8 0,5
Investment ratios N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) 12 12 12
Capex/depreciation 2,7 1,2 2,3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 9,8 4,2 7,3
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang N/A N/A N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 3,57 3,61 3,11

Equity research

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Media

Arise - Company presentation with CEO Per-Erik Eriksson & CFO & IR Markus Larsson
Arise - Company presentation with CEO Per-Erik Eriksson

Main shareholders - Arise

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Claesson & Anderzén 21.7 % 21.7 % 13 Jan 2023
Axel Johnson Gruppen 11.2 % 11.2 % 4 May 2022
Tredje AP-fonden 9.8 % 9.8 % 28 Dec 2022
Johan Claesson 6.2 % 6.2 % 11 Mar 2022
Nordea Fonder 2.8 % 2.8 % 28 Dec 2022
Andra AP-fonden 2.4 % 2.4 % 28 Dec 2022
Skandia Fonder 1.7 % 1.7 % 31 Dec 2022
Monega 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 Oct 2022
Handelsbanken Fonder 1.6 % 1.6 % 31 Dec 2022
Avanza Pension 1.4 % 1.4 % 28 Dec 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Arise

Name Quantity Code Date
Johan Damne + 30 000 BUY 13 Jan 2023
Joachim Gahm + 1 000 BUY 23 Dec 2022
Joachim Gahm - 500 SELL 21 Dec 2022
Joachim Gahm - 333 SELL 19 Dec 2022
Hans Carlsson - 10 000 SELL 19 Dec 2022
Per-Erik Eriksson + 100 000 BUY 16 Dec 2022
Daniel Cambridge + 20 000 BUY 16 Dec 2022
Per-Erik / Markus Eriksson / Larsson - 407 360 SELL 16 Dec 2022
Hans Carlsson + 100 000 BUY 16 Dec 2022
Per-Erik Eriksson - 5 000 SELL 14 Dec 2022

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