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Biovica

Biovica

Rapid and effective evaluation of cancer treatments

Biovica is a biotechnology company whose patented technology platform, DiviTum, measures the cell growth rate of patients with solid cancer tumours. The test is designed to provide a measure of how fast cancer grows, as well as whether targeted cancer treatment is effective. Biovica has initially chosen to focus on evaluating the treatment effect on metastatic breast cancer. The company is in an early commercial phase and currently has sales to the research market. Commercial launch in 2021 is estimated for Europe and the United States.

We believe there are good opportunities for Biovica to receive reimbursement for the company's product DiviTum in a number of markets. DiviTum's advantage over existing methods is that only a blood sample is required, and the technology is expected to enable an assessment of treatment effect already after 2-4 weeks, which can be compared to the average time for most of today's methods in about 2-4 months.

We note a number of risks factors for Biovica, including market risk, partnership risk, competition, legal and regulatory risk, product development risk and currency and macroeconomic risk. In addition, there is a risk that Divitum will not receive reimbursement on key markets in Europe and the United States and that today's standardized methods could be considered better.

SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -3,7 -5,9 -3,6
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 4,2 1,9 2,8
Sales 2 1 45
Sales growth (%) 24,3 -38,5 3423,9
EBITDA -34 -48 -21
EBITDA margin (%) -1638,9 -3786,2 -46,4
EBIT adj -40 -55 -28
EBIT adj margin (%) -1934,6 -4269,5 -62,3
Pretax profit -39 -54 -28
EPS rep -1,4 -1,93 -0,99
EPS growth (%) -8,4 -38 48,5
EPS adj -1,4 -1,93 -0,99
DPS 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -29,6 -18,4 -44,3
EV/EBIT adj (x) -25,1 -16,4 -33
P/E (x) -29,1 -18,1 -35,1
P/E adj (x) -29,1 -18,1 -35,1
EV/sales (x) 485 698,1 20,5
FCF yield (%) -3,6 -5,8 -3,5
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA 4,2 1,9 2,8
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Leasing payments -1 -1 -1
Depreciation and amortisation -6 -6 -7
Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0
EO items 0 0 0
Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0
EBITDA lease Adj -35 -49 -22
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) -1688,9 -3875,5 -49,2
Sales 2 1 45
COGS 0 0 -7
Gross profit 2 1 38
Other operating items -36 -49 -59
EBITDA -34 -48 -21
Depreciation on tangibles 0 0 0
Depreciation on intangibles -4 -6 -7
EBITA -40 -55 -28
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0
EBIT -40 -55 -28
Other financial items 0 0 0
Net financial items 1 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0
Pretax profit -39 -54 -28
Tax 0 0 0
Net profit -39 -54 -28
Minority interest 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -39 -54 -28
EPS -1,4 -1,93 -0,99
EPS Adj -1,4 -1,93 -0,99
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0,2 0,1 0
Gross margin (%) 82,3 87,1 85
EBITDA margin (%) -1638,9 -3786,2 -46,4
EBITA margin (%) -1934,6 -4269,5 -62,3
EBIT margin (%) -1934,6 -4269,5 -62,3
Pretax margin (%) -1896,3 -4265,5 -62,3
Net margin (%) -1900,9 -4267,8 -62,3
Growth rates Y/Y 2021 2022 2023
Sales growth (%) 24,3 -38,5 3423,9
EBITDA growth (%) -32,5 -42 56,8
EBIT growth (%) -34,5 -35,7 48,6
Net profit growth (%) -30 -38 48,5
EPS growth (%) -8,4 -38 48,5
Profitability 2021 2022 2023
ROE (%) -30,3 -35,1 -24,6
ROE Adj (%) -30,3 -35,1 -24,6
ROCE (%) -29,6 -34,5 -24,1
ROCE Adj(%) -29,6 -34,5 -24,1
ROIC (%) -101,5 -143,7 -72,3
ROIC Adj (%) -101,5 -143,7 -72,3
Adj earnings numbers 2021 2022 2023
EBITDA Adj -34 -48 -21
EBITDA Adj margin (%) -1638,9 -3786,2 -46,4
EBITA Adj -40 -55 -28
EBITA Adj margin (%) -1934,6 -4269,5 -62,3
EBIT Adj -40 -55 -28
EBIT Adj margin (%) -1934,6 -4269,5 -62,3
Pretax profit Adj -39 -54 -28
Net profit Adj -39 -54 -28
Net profit to shareholders Adj -39 -54 -28
Net Adj margin (%) -1900,9 -4267,8 -62,3
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease liability amortisation -1 -1 -1
Other intangible assets 42 40 40
Right-of-use asset 2 3 5
Total other fixed assets 0 0 0
Leasing liability 2 2 2
Total other long-term liabilities 0 1 1
Net IB debt excl. leasing -146 -95 -62
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%) 415,8 191,6 278,4
EBITDA -34 -48 -21
Net financial items 1 0 0
Paid tax 0 0 0
Non-cash items 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC -33 -48 -21
Change in WC 0 1 -4
Operating cash flow -34 -48 -25
CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
CAPEX intangible fixed assets -8 -9 -9
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0
Free cash flow -42 -57 -34
Dividend paid 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 140 0 0
Other non cash items 9 4 2
Decrease in net IB debt 22 96 -23
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2021 2022 2023
Goodwill 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 43 48 40
Tangible fixed assets 1 3 3
Other fixed assets 1 0 0
Fixed assets 45 47 48
Inventories 1 0 6
Receivables 0 1 29
Other current assets 1 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 145 95 61
Total assets 193 143 145
Shareholders equity 183 128 100
Minority 0 0 0
Total equity 183 128 100
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Pension debt 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0
Deferred tax 1 1 1
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 1
Short-term debt 0 0 0
Accounts payable 0 0 9
Other current liabilities 7 10 32
Total liabilities and equity 193 143 145
Net IB debt -143 -92 -59
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -143 -92 -59
Capital invested 40 36 41
Working capital -5 -9 -6
EV breakdown 2021 2022 2023
Market cap. diluted (m) 1151 984 984
Net IB debt Adj -143 -92 -59
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0
EV 1007 892 925
Capital efficiency (%) 2021 2022 2023
Total assets turnover (%) 1,5 0,8 31,3
Capital invested turnover (%) 4,4 4,4 87,8
Capital employed turnover (%) 2,5 1,4 23,1
Inventories / sales (%) 25,2 17,4 7,3
Customer advances / sales (%) 0 25 26,2
Payables / sales (%) 0 10 10,5
Working capital / sales (%) -306,7 -574,3 -16,7
Financial risk and debt service 2021 2022 2023
Net debt / equity (%) -78,5 -72,1 -59,1
Net debt / market cap (%) -14,5 -7,7 -6
Equity ratio (%) 94,8 89,9 69
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -78,5 -72,1 -59,1
Current ratio (%) 2071,5 913,8 236,1
EBITDA / net interest (%) -4281,6 -94803 0
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%) 421,4 191,1 283,4
Interest cover (%) -65543,3 -160107,4 0
SEKm 2021 2022e 2023e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -3,7 -5,9 -3,6
Shares outstanding adj. 28 28 28
Fully diluted shares Adj 28 28 28
EPS -1,4 -1,93 -0,99
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0
EPS Adj -1,4 -1,93 -0,99
BVPS 6,46 4,53 3,54
BVPS Adj 4,98 3,12 2,13
Net IB debt / share -5,1 -3,3 -2,1
Share price 35,05 42,31 34,8
Market cap. (m) 991 1196 984
Valuation 2021 2022 2023
P/E -29,1 -18,1 -35,1
EV/sales 484,97 698,14 20,55
EV/EBITDA -29,6 -18,4 -44,3
EV/EBITA -25,1 -16,4 -33
EV/EBIT -25,1 -16,4 -33
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -3,6 -5,8 -3,5
P/BVPS 6,3 7,68 9,83
P/BVPS Adj 8,17 11,16 16,37
P/E Adj -29,1 -18,1 -35,1
EV/EBITDA Adj -29,6 -18,4 -44,3
EV/EBITA Adj -25,1 -16,4 -33
EV/EBIT Adj -25,1 -16,4 -33
EV/cap. employed 5,4 6,8 9
Investment ratios 2021 2022 2023
Capex / sales 399,6 728,3 20,7
Capex / depreciation 135,1 150,7 129,7
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 19,8 23,3 23,3
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles 14,7 15,4 17,9
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 0 0 0

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Media

Biovica - Company presentation with CEO Anders Rylander
Biovica - Company presentation with CEO Anders Rylander

Main shareholders - Biovica

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Anders Rylander 13.9 % 27.1 % 30 Apr 2022
Gunnar Rylander 5.3 % 8.2 % 30 Apr 2022
Avanza Pension 7.7 % 5.3 % 30 Apr 2022
Coeli 5.5 % 3.8 % 30 Apr 2022
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 2.2 % 1.5 % 30 Apr 2022
Henrik Osvald 2.2 % 1.5 % 30 Apr 2022
Lars Holmqvist 1.9 % 1.3 % 30 Apr 2022
LYM Consulting AB 1.7 % 1.2 % 30 Apr 2022
Andra AP-fonden 1.7 % 1.2 % 30 Apr 2022
Lancelot Asset Management AB 1.7 % 1.2 % 30 Apr 2022
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB

Insider list - Biovica

Name Quantity Code Date
Anders Rylander + 5 000 BUY 8 Feb 2022
Lars Holmqvist + 8 500 BUY 19 Jan 2022
Robert Dann + 20 000 BUY 20 Dec 2021
Annika Carlsson Berg + 25 000 BUY 16 Dec 2021
Annika Carlsson Berg + 25 000 SUBS 16 Dec 2021
Jesper Söderqvist + 25 000 BUY 15 Dec 2021
Bertil Joakim Arwidson + 20 000 BUY 15 Dec 2021
Per Anders Bernhard Rylander + 50 000 BUY 15 Dec 2021
Maria Holmlund + 25 000 BUY 15 Dec 2021
Helle Fisker + 20 000 BUY 14 Dec 2021

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