https://cr.abgsc.com/feed/borskollen/ News and articles from cr.abgsc.com ABG Sundal Collier - Commissioned research (cr.abgsc.com) ABG Sundal Collier - Commissioned research (cr.abgsc.com) research@abgsc.com (cr.abgsc.com) research@abgsc.com (cr.abgsc.com) 300k phones sold annually with +30% GM Same playbook as Doro: add subscriptions Price not disclosed, but financed with cash at hand Aquires Emporia Group for an undisclosed price This morning, Xplora announced that it has agreed on key terms for the acquisition of 100% of the shares in the Emporia Group for an undisclosed consideration. The company is the market leader in senior mobile phones in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, with annual sales of approximately 300,000 devices across Europe. Seem to be a strategic sound acquisition We argue that from a strategic point of view, the acquisition makes sense from two perspectives. First, the deal folles the exact same Playbook as in the Doro acquisition where Xplora can leverage its MVNO licenses and existing infrastructure to introduce its own Cellular subscriptions to Emporia customers and thereby build a base of recurring subscription revenue. Second, Emporia’s strong market position in the DACH region complements Doro’s strong position in UK, France and the Nordics making the combined company a clear European market leader with strong positions in all the major European countries. Emporia has strong market positions in several markets where Xplora does not have an MVNO licence today such as Austria and Italy and we would therefore expect Xplora to add MVNO licenses in some of these markets to fully capitalise on the acquisition, but that has not yet been decided. Price not yet disclosed, but likely earnings accretive Emporia’s device margins are in-line with Xplora’s, but according to our understanding Emporia does not have very high EBITDA margins today, but Xplora expect to lift the profitability over time by adding subcriptions. We also assess that their could be some cost synergies due to overlapping functions with Doro/Xplora. The price is not disclosed, but is financed with cash on hand. Thus, the price has to be less than the NOK 422m that Xplora had in cash ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/3/xplora-technologies---acquires-dachs-leading-senior-mobile-player/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/3/xplora-technologies---acquires-dachs-leading-senior-mobile-player/ 2026-03-16 08:15:02 NO0010895782 Analys Order picking as core growth engine Vusion partnership broadens store digitalisation scope Financial ambitions reiterated Today, StrongPoint held an investor update to provide additional insight into the company. Below, we summarise the main points from the presentation. For the full update, please see here . Order picking as core growth engine StrongPoint positioned in-store order picking as its primary growth driver, supported by rising grocery e-commerce penetration and a shift from centralised CFC models toward store-based fulfillment and quick commerce. The company commented on its ambition to “dominate” in-store picking, underpinned by what it describes as a leading solution globally and a steadily expanding international footprint. Beyond its legacy Swedish base, deployments now include retailers such as Sainsbury’s (UK), Carrefour (Belgium) and Sonae (Portugal), reflecting growing traction across key European markets. We argue that the structural growth in grocery e-commerce - with penetration only at ~15% in the US and 14% in the UK, and still rising - underpins a multi-year demand tailwind for efficient in-store fulfillment. As volumes scale, retailers are increasingly prioritising labour productivity, accuracy and basket quality, areas where StrongPoint’s picking solution is positioned to deliver measurable ROI. At the same time, the significant whitespace in large future markets such as the UK & Ireland (~NOK 2,900bn market size) and Spain (~NOK 1,320bn), where chain coverage and solution penetration remain materially below Nordic levels, providing an attractive set-up for cross-sell of picking, ESL, self-checkout and Vensafe. In our view, the combination of structural e-commerce growth, large underpenetrated addressable markets and a scalable order-picking model lays the foundation for an attractive long-term growth opportunity. Vusion partnership broadens store digitalisation s... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2026/3/strongpoint---investor-update/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2026/3/strongpoint---investor-update/ 2026-03-12 14:30:04 NO0010098247 Analys Focus on sport/wellness, dental and smaller centres Adj. EBITDAaL margin expansion: 11.7% to 12.9% during '26e-'28e ~25% below its historical average on NTM EV/EBITDA Polish capex skewing to margin-accretive growth levers Last Wednesday we visited Medicover’s hospitals and clinics in Warsaw, with discussions centred on Poland as a core growth engine and driver of margin expansion over the next few years. In line with our recent investor-update takeaways, we expect capital allocation to become more aligned with the sales mix, implying a greater focus on Poland, but with a clearer tilt towards margin-accretive investment: 1) sports/wellness (incl. CityFit integration), 2) dental, and 3) smaller, local centres that broaden the network, improve convenience and lift fee-for-service capture. Utilisation and network effects now the playbook Management reiterated that utilisation still “leaves room” for growth without a step-up in capex, with prepaid primary care/occupational health acting as the anchor and a denser layer of smaller sites designed to drive referral flows, improve access and capture more FFS. Wellness is increasingly positioned as part of the same ecosystem, supporting retention and cross-sell as healthcare shifts from medicine towards lifestyle. At group level, capex is expected to stay around 6% of sales, and encouragingly, in '25 ROIC increased to 13% driven by utilisation/efficiency, which we believe will continue over the coming years. No estimate/FVR changes, trading below historical averages We make no changes to estimates or our FVR. We still forecast organic growth of 12-10% for ’26e-’28e and adj. EBITDAaL margins expanding from 11.7% to 12.9% (adj. EBITDA 16.9% to 18.1% for '26e to '28e), driven by mix and operating leverage as these Polish businesses scale. As a reference point, Benefit Systems, a Polish listed fitness peer, delivered an EBITDA margin of ~29% in FY’24, which we view a... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/3/medicover---from-build-out-to-fill-up/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/3/medicover---from-build-out-to-fill-up/ 2026-03-08 18:45:03 SE0009778848 Analys The reshaping continues... ...with a potential IPO of the land bank... ...and large cost-cutting measures Q4 highlights Qben Infra reported Q4 sales of SEK 301m and EBITA of SEK -88m. The sale of Rail was completed in January 2026 and the sale of Kvalitetsbygg was completed in December 2025, but with a vendor note due in 2027. Qben is also looking into a spin-off of the land bank portfolio, which according to the company is valued at NOK 655m. This is a strategic decision that follows Qben's increased focus on the Power segment and market. Adj. EBITA was SEK -74m, corresponding to a -7% adj. EBITA margin. The decrease is mainly due to an adjustment to the PPA analysis (Purchase Price Allocation) made in connection with the acquisition of Team Bygg. Outlook and estimate changes The remaining parts of Qben – Power, Inspect and Construction (Team Bygg) – have good demand. Qben guides for SEK 1.5bn in sales and SEK 111m EBITA (local GAAP) in '26, for an EBITA margin of 7.2% driven by Power, Inspect and cost reductions. Qben also carried out a bond redemption, resulting in higher financial expenses in 2025 but providing greater balance sheet flexibility going forward Looking ahead Qben Infra should be viewed as an investment company. Management states that the transactions will free up resources for redeployment into the faster-growing infrastructure segments (Inspect and Power), which benefit from solid market conditions and a strong order backlog. Following completion of the divestment, the Construction business area will consist solely of residential property development operations in Norway https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qben-infra/Equity-research/2026/3/qben-infra---portfolio-reshaping-continues/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qben-infra/Equity-research/2026/3/qben-infra---portfolio-reshaping-continues/ 2026-03-02 14:45:04 SE0023114012 Analys Q4 sales and EBITDA 7% and EBITDA 23% above driven by Senior Strong growth in senior device revenue +35% y-o-y Expect cons to lift '26 EBITDA by 10-15%, share to follow Adj. EBITDA NOK 101m, +23% vs cons Revenue was NOK 606m, 7% above FactSet cons of NOK 568m (+12% vs. ABGSCe NOK 540m). This was driven by strong growth in the Senior Segment from the shift from 2G and 3G to 4G technology. The gross margin was 51.5% in line with ABGSCe. Opex was NOK 212m, 6% higher than ABGSCe of NOK 200m. This gave an EBITDA of NOK 101m, 23% above cons of NOK 82m (+29% vs. ABGSCe NOK 61m), corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 16.6% vs. 9.4% in Q4'24. Capex was NOK 4m (ABGSCe NOK 15m), resulting in adj. EBITDA-capex of NOK 97m, 54% above ABGSCe of NOK 63m. Strong senior device sales, lower ARPU Total device revenue was NOK 515m, 18% above ABGSCe of NOK 438m. Kids & Youth device sales of NOK 152m was 8% below ABGSCe, and Senior device sales (Doro) of NOK 363m was 33% above ABGSCe. Service revenue was NOK 91m, 11% below ABGSCe of NOK 102m, corresponding to a growth of 18% y-o-y. Number of Kids subscriptions ended at 476k as pre-announced, of which 306k were Connectivity (ABGSCe 301k), 121k were Premium (ABGSCe 113k), 32k were B2B (ABGSCe 38k), and 15k were Service fee (ABGSCe 16k). This gave a monthly ARPU of NOK 66 vs. ABGSCe of NOK 74, which compares to NOK 72 in Q4'24. Expect a strong share outperformance today On the back of today's report we expect consensus to lift estimates driven by strong device sales and gross margin in the senior segment, however, somewhat offset by a lower ARPU and higher opex. All in all we expect cons to lift 2026 EBITDA by 10-15% on the back of today's report. Conclusion: We expect the share to outperform by 10-15% today. Xplora will host a conf call at 08:00 CEST. pagebreak Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier & company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/2/xplora-technologies---record-quarter-driven-by-senior/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/2/xplora-technologies---record-quarter-driven-by-senior/ 2026-02-27 07:15:04 NO0010895782 Analys Strong early efficacy signal Solid cost management Fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share Strong early efficacy signal Isofol today announced that all six currently evaluable RAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer patients in Part 1 of its Phase 1b/2 trial, treated with an optimised arfolitixorin regimen, experienced tumour shrinkage, with reductions in total tumour burden of up to ~50%. Furthermore, half of the patients improved to such a degree that they were removed from the trial for consideration of surgical removal, which is rare in this hard-to-treat population. Additionally, no dose-limiting toxicities have been observed. The reported efficacy results are based on patients treated at the first two dose levels, while the trial has now progressed to the third dose cohort. Although based on a small and early dataset, the findings provide clinical support for Isofol's optimised dosing strategy. We raise the LOA for the risk-weighted scenario B to 22.5% (20%). Solid cost management These encouraging results come following a solid Q4 report in which opex came in better than expected (SEK 13m vs. ABGSCe at SEK 16m). We slightly reduce opex for FY'26-'27e, though the valuation impact is offset by the continued USD headwind. Cash and cash equivalents came in at SEK 127m (SEK 139m at the end of Q3'25). As before, if all TO1 and TO2 warrants are exercised in full, we estimate a cash runway into 2028e. Fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share Our raised LOA for the risk-weighted scenario B to 22.5% (20%) yields SEK 1.8/share (1.6). As before, scenario A (no hierarchical order) assumes clinical failure (LOA 0%) yielding SEK 0.1/share, while scenario C assumes full clinical and commercial success in first-line mCRC (LOA 100%) with a value of SEK 10.5/share. This implies a fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/isofol-medical/Equity-research/2026/2/isofol-medical---from-first-lessons-to-second-execution/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/isofol-medical/Equity-research/2026/2/isofol-medical---from-first-lessons-to-second-execution/ 2026-02-24 19:00:06 SE0009581051 Analys Minor negative estimate revisions due to lower headcount Continued negative net recruitment trend, but increasing margins Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 5.5x Q4 report B3 missed slightly on sales, at SEK 315m (-8% vs. ABGSCe SEK 343m). This was partly supported by Norwegian (Habberstad) sales but held back slightly by FX, subcontractor volumes and fewer consultants. Organically, sales declined by ~14%, affected by weaker market conditions in Sweden and Poland, where both countries had fewer consultants. Adj. EBITA was SEK 17m (+8% vs. ABGSCe SEK 16m). The beat was mainly driven by lower overhead costs as B3 had a ~10% reduction in FTEs y-o-y, showing its strategy towards cost adjustments in the weaker market environment. Estimate changes We cut adj. EBITA by 3%. Our estimates are a mechanical extrapolation of the company's negative sequential net recruitment. B3 has had too many consultants relative to current demand, and some skills have not fully aligned with the needs of customers. The company is therefore now focusing on recruitment in stronger demand areas, which we view as positive from a longer-term perspective. We also see that the market is starting to stabilise in terms of demand, hourly prices and net recruitment. Valuation Based on our revised estimates, the stock is trading at 5.5x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~35% below current peer multiples and ~40% below the historical average for Nordic IT services peers. We see that B3 is in a clear adjustment phase, reducing its costs and aligning headcount to demand. Norway remains an attractive market, with fast-growing segments in defence and security, where B3 is able to have a higher price range. The Norwegian market also has a lower supply of consultants (than e.g. Sweden), which we see as positive for further expansion. We continue to see B3 as well-positioned for '26e-'27e, supported by stabilising market conditions. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2026/2/b3-consulting-group---cost-adjustments-should-lift-margins-in-26e/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2026/2/b3-consulting-group---cost-adjustments-should-lift-margins-in-26e/ 2026-02-24 08:00:04 SE0008347660 Analys Market remains challenging; soft near-term outlook We lower '26e-'27e adj. EBIT by 33% 12x-10x 2026e EV/EBIT adj. Weak Q4, automotive remains the main culprit Ework's Q4 was challenging, with sales -13% y-o-y coupled with adj. EBIT of SEK 36m, down 33% y-o-y. While the latter was 9% ahead of our forecast, this was mainly due to lower costs, with sales volumes remaining poor. As we have repeatedly emphasised, the weaker market is a broad-based phenomenon. However, Ework's high exposure to the automotive sector (19% of gross profit, down from 21% in Q4'24) and an intensified competitive landscape (excess supply of consultants) have further exacerbated the situation. On a positive note, however, Norway has finally started to stabilise, and the gross margin has continued to strengthen. Furthermore, Ework has implemented additional cost-saving measures to improve profitability in 2026. These measures include SEK 18m of cost savings, which will be realised gradually throughout 2026. This includes halving the size of the management team, partly in an attempt to improve sales efforts and move closer to the customer by simplifying the organisation. Given the targeted areas for cost reductions, we welcome the savings. No clear signs of near-term recovery Given Q4 orders -14% y-o-y (vs. -7% y-o-y in Q3), the outlook for 2026 is poor, and we see no clear signs of an imminent recovery. Consequently, we lower '26e-'27e sales forecasts by 16-18%, resulting in a 33% cut to the corresponding adj. EBIT figures. We now expect 2026 sales to decrease by 14% y-o-y, and EPS by -16% y-o-y (vs. Ework's guidance of 2026 EPS down 10-20% y-o-y), despite easy comps. 12x-10x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT adj. The share is trading at 12x-10x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT adj. (vs. peers at 12x-8x), which is largely in line with its 10Y avg. of ~12x. The balance sheet remains in good shape and cost control is decent, but volumes need to improve for profits to return to growth. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2026/2/ework-group---market-conditions-yet-to-improve/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2026/2/ework-group---market-conditions-yet-to-improve/ 2026-02-23 16:15:04 SE0002402701 Analys Weak ACV, but good margins We lower our sales assumptions, but raise '26e-'27e EBIT margins 1.7x EV/sales in '26e (excl. the DPS of SEK 14), 15x EV/EBIT Good cost control, but weak ACV Formpipe's Q4 results were mixed, with a weak ACV figure (the lowest level since Q2'20) overshadowing good cost control and better-than-expected dividends. Most of the company's ACV stems from Microsoft Dynamics and Temenos. Although Microsoft Dynamics saw continued momentum (18 new deals, down from 23 in Q4'24), progress with Temenos remains slow. Given the sequential improvement in Q3 and Temenos' solid Q4 figures, this outcome is somewhat puzzling, but ACV tends to be lumpy. We expect the current level to persist over the coming quarters and then improve. The soft ACV was also exacerbated by churn (likely ~SEK 2m), but given that this was mainly related to legacy products, which currently account for only a small share of the current ARR, we believe the risk of significant future churn is low. On costs, Formpipe introduced cost savings measures in Q1'25, and has now implemented further actions. Given Formpipe's partner-led sales model, we do not expect these measures to significantly impact sales processes; instead, we welcome the news and are optimistic about continued margin expansion. We lower our sales assumptions We lower '26e-'27e sales by 7-9% due to the weak, forward-looking ACV figure. Alongside lower cost assumptions, we raise '26e adj. EBIT by 5%, but cut '27e by 9%. We now expect 5% organic growth in '26e. Extraordinary dividends on the cards Following the recent divestment, the BoD is proposing an extraordinary dividend of SEK 14/share (SEK 760m), which was above our forecast of SEK 11/share. Given the recent contraction in peer multiples and Formpipe's high share of recurring revenue, we think it makes sense to distribute the majority of the funds from the divestment. Adjusting for the dividends, the valuation sits at 1.7x EV/sales in 2026e (or... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2026/2/formpipe---good-margins-but-acv-lags/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2026/2/formpipe---good-margins-but-acv-lags/ 2026-02-23 14:45:04 SE0001338039 Analys Q4: Back to growth and positive EBIT; sales +12% vs. ABGSCe Seasonally softer H1'26e, stronger H2'26e expected We cut '26e-'27e sales by 4-3% and total EBIT by SEK 13m Seasonally softer Q1 ahead, EBIT positive in H2e ES returned to growth in Q4 and delivered a positive EBIT. Sales were SEK 70m (+12% vs. ABGSCe, +33% y-o-y) while EBIT was SEK 1.2m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 2.4m). OEM sales rebounded after a temporary inventory build-up among OEM customers in Q2/Q3. Growth was driven by Residential (+40% y-o-y), while Commercial remained weak (-29% y-o-y). Heading into '26, management guides for a seasonally softer H1'26e but expects a clear pick-up in Q3/Q4e. We view this as reasonable, supported by: 1) improving market conditions, 2) contracted OEM volumes, and 3) continued propane (R290) roll-outs. For Q1e, we expect growth to turn negative again on seasonality, before improving from Q2e on easier comps and building momentum into Q3/Q4e. Estimate changes We cut '26e-'27e sales by 4-3% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 13m, on our lowered volume expectations for H1'26e. We expect EBIT to be negative in H1’26e (seasonality), before improving to positive EBIT in H2’26e. For FY'26e, we now forecast EBIT of SEK -1m, followed by SEK +17m in '27e. Improving market conditions ES appears well-placed to benefit from a broader market recovery. We think the company can recover volumes and re-enter a growth trajectory in '26e, with recent heat-pump market data suggesting conditions are starting to improve (SE+NL+DE HP unit sales up +21% y-o-y in Q4'25), although the timing and pace of the recovery remain uncertain. Moreover, we still expect negative FCF in ’26e, and note a more pressured net cash position. However, we think with improving profitability in '26e and improving market conditions, ES should return to positive FCF in ’27e and strengthen its financial position. ES is currently trading at 6x-3x EV/EBIT '27e-'28e. We lower our fair va... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2026/2/energy-save---back-to-growth-but-softer-h126-expected/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2026/2/energy-save---back-to-growth-but-softer-h126-expected/ 2026-02-23 10:15:03 SE0014428447 Analys Q4 numbers largely in-line with expectations Large move-out in Q1 weighs on outlook 2026e P/CEPS of 14x vs coverage average of 16x Rec. PTP +1% on stronger NOI margin Fastpartner delivered Q4 results with rec. PTP 1% ahead of our forecast, driven by lower operating costs in the quarter, with an NOI margin of 68.9% (1.1pp y-o-y). This was somewhat counteracted by higher central administration costs and net financials. The proposed dividend was SEK 1.15 per share (1.10), compared to our expectations of SEK 1.10 and Infront consensus of SEK 1.20. Underestimated termination weighs on outlook The economic occupancy flat q-o-q at 91.3% (92.4%), and occupancy adjusted for projects was down -0.1pp q-o-q to 91.6% (92.4%). Furthermore, the average paid interest rate decreased by -0.1pp q-o-q to 3.60% at year-end. Despite these supporting data points, the IFPM guidance was down 8.1% q-o-q to SEK 790m NTM. The driver is the Nasdaq premises in Frihamnen being vacated by year-end, where the previous guidance apparently assumed it would be fully let once vacated. According to management, it has ongoing discussions with potential tenants for the premises, some of which it had expected to materialise into signed leases in H2'25, but which have been prolonged. While we already had the termination in our estimates, it seems the lease was larger than we previously expected, leading to negative CEPS revisions of ~9% for '26e-'27e. On the back of this we are 0.6% ahead of the IFPM guidance NTM. 2026e P/CEPS of 13x, coverage average of 16x The share is trading at 2026e P/CEPS of 13x, below the average in our coverage of 15x. On 2025 P/EPRA NRV, the share is trading at 0.49x compared to the average in our coverage of 0.85x. On the back of the larger than expected impact from the Nasdaq termination we expect CEPS growth of -4% in 2026e, and +5% in 2027e, taking the average to +1% vs the average in our coverage of 9%. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/fastpartner/Equity-research/2026/2/fastpartner---outlook-taking-a-hit/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/fastpartner/Equity-research/2026/2/fastpartner---outlook-taking-a-hit/ 2026-02-23 08:15:02 SE0013512506 Analys Solid Q4 but continued cautious order environment Industry bright spot, initiatives delivering Customer caution in P&M, expected to soften up into '26e Q4 results Cavotec reported sales above expectations at EUR 50m (+9% y-o-y, 34% vs ABGSCe). P&M: -5% y-o-y, Industry: +36% y-o-y. Order intake of EUR 48m was in line with estimates. Adj. EBIT was better than expected at EUR 3.9m vs. ABGSCe 0.7m, mainly due to the higher volumes. The highlight of the report was the continued momentum in Industry, with good demand for motorised cable reel systems. This, coupled with recent operational improvements, drove EBITDA margins to 16.1% vs. 6.7% LY. For P&Ms, however, EBITDA margins contracted (11.7% vs 17.6% Q4'24), albeit against tough comps. Management pointed towards increased customer caution towards the end of the year in P&M, which we expect will weigh on Q1 orders. Estimate changes and outlook We raise '26e-27e sales by 4% on stronger-than-expected sales in Q4, but lower total '26e-'27e EBIT by 2-5%, mainly reflecting our lowered margin expectations in P&M. Management reiterated that P&M softness is largely linked to delayed decisions (pushing forward rather than cancellations) and said customer caution is already “softening up” into 2026. In addition, the company is initiating cost-savings in '26, with details to be announced in Q1. A soft year While FY'25 was a soft year for Cavotec, we continue to see attractive long-term potential in shore power and mining electrification. Despite a more cautious order environment, we find it positive that Industry is showing a positive trend. Notably, management also highlighted that Industry momentum is supported by increased field activity and earlier customer involvement/co-development. The share is trading at 19x-11x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT on our post-report estimates vs. the peer median of 17x-13x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/2/cavotec---industry-shines-in-cautious-environment/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/2/cavotec---industry-shines-in-cautious-environment/ 2026-02-23 07:30:02 CH0136071542 Analys Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2m Lower wood costs ahead, but markets still challenging Fair value range of SEK 17-50 Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2m Arctic Paper delivered Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2m, compared to our estimate of PLN 25m. However, note that the reported figure included an energy refund of ~PLN 40m, i.e clean Paper EBIT was PLN -27m vs. our clean estimate of PLN -14m. Weak demand and increased Asian competition have put pressure on prices, which impacted the Paper profitability. An announced 8-10 percent paper price increase aims to restore margins, though H1 2026 demand visibility remains weak. Pulp EBITDA was somewhat softer than expected at PLN -74m vs. our estimate of PLN -70m. Regarding the pulp business, the quarter was characterised by lower pulp prices in USD combined with a stronger SEK, as well as high wood costs. A write-down of finished goods inventory linked to lower pulp prices weighed on earnings by ~SEK -35m. In addition, the annual maintenance shutdown at Vallvik Mill impacted results by ~SEK 70-80m. Lower wood costs ahead, but markets still challenging Pulpwood prices are dropping 25-30% across Scandinavia as high inventories and low demand pressure the market. This should provide some cost relief. Paper markets are helped by 10% supply cuts in '25-'26e, but with (too) low demand the utilisation rate is only 75-80%. We need 3mt more cuts to reach the historical average. The pulp market has had its short-term issues, but Suzano has hiked hardwood prices seven times, or +26%. Rottneros' exposure mainly lies within softwood and CTMP, which has lagged hardwood. However, SCA's recent USD 100/t NBSK price hike is good news for Rottneros, which could also see prices up in '26. Fair value range of SEK 17-50 The company is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.45x, which is ~40% below its historical average. We have applied three valuation methodologies and arrive at a fair value range of SEK 17-50. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2026/2/arctic-paper---still-challenging/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2026/2/arctic-paper---still-challenging/ 2026-02-20 17:30:07 PLARTPR00012 Analys Adj. EBITA margin up 1.7pp as sales grew 15% ex. M&A Likely to exceed conservative guidance in '26 Belief that earnings trough is behind us reinforced Q4 results Inission delivered a strong Q4, growing 15% y-o-y ex. M&A and achieving an adjusted EBITA margin of 6.9%, beating our expectations by 4% on orders, 6% on sales and 15% on adj. EBITA. There were restructuring costs of SEK 6.8m in the quarter, mainly in Enedo, but these will, according to management, be gone starting in Q1. The effect of the cost cuts seems very promising given Enedo's adjusted margin of 5.2% in the quarter. Note that both segments' sales now include significant intra-group sales (which are then eliminated at the group level) following the move of the Tunis factory from the Enedo to the Inission segment, partially contributing to their substantial y-o-y increases. There was also a SEK 21m non-cash financial one-off related to the early acquisition of the remaining shares in AXXE, which we have adjusted for. Estimate changes The company guided for sales of SEK 2.3-2.5bn in '26 and an EBITA margin above 6%. During the earnings call, the CEO gave the impression that this guidance is, if anything, conservative, like we expected. We raise '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2-5%, now forecasting sales of SEK 2.42bn with an adj. EBITA margin of 6.8% in '26e. Outlook and valuation Our belief that the trough in Inission's earnings is behind us, which we expressed following the Q3 report , is now reinforced by another strong report. The book-to-bill remains solid, and the growing order book is being converted into sales growth, which in turn is yielding improved profitability, a trend we believe will continue, especially given cost savings coming through in Enedo at the same time as sales growth is set to accelerate, backed up by its strong book-to-bill. The share is now trading at 11x-8x '26e-'28e P/E, compared to peers at 16x-13x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2026/2/inission---set-for-substantial-earnings-growth/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2026/2/inission---set-for-substantial-earnings-growth/ 2026-02-20 17:00:08 SE0016275069 Analys FY guidance as expected, but Q1 comments ahead of plan '26e adj. EBITA -5-7% on lower '25 base and FX but growth recovers 15% adj. EBITA growth 2026e, share at 7.4x EV/EBITA Focus on the positive growth outlook The Q4 report was below both our and FactSet consensus estimates on sales and adj. EBITA, but the focus on the day was on the forward-looking guidance. The FY guidance of "2026 EBITA better than 2025" was expected, in our view, as if one assumes no non-recurring items in 2026, reported EBITA would rise by ~10%. BTS has also entered a period when it sees major cost reductions behind it, and the challenging North American market in 2025 is starting to show positive momentum. In the conference call, BTS therefore guided for positive organic growth and EBITA growth in North America already in Q1 and for the FY, which shows that BTS is ahead of plan to return the important region to growth. Adj. EBITA cut by 5-7% The FY guidance has no major impact on our estimates, as we already expected BTS to deliver organic growth and better margins. However, the Q4 miss reduces the starting point somewhat combined with less favourable FX movements, meaning that we reduce '26e and '27e sales and adj. EBITA by 5% and 7%, respectively. Important to dispel AI worries The global management consulting sector has had a tough time on the stock market, partly due to worries about lower demand and higher competition from AI. BTS's share is down 22% in the past 6 months (despite +28% today) and Accenture is down -25% the last month. The positive growth outlook from BTS is therefore appreciated and the share is trading at 7.4x 2026e EV/EBITA on our updated estimates. In 2026, we estimate 6% organic growth, 15% adj. EBITA growth and 27% reported EBITA growth (BTS does not adjust for one-offs when it provides its FY outlook). Given the net cash position, growth guidance and current valuation, we argue that buybacks would be welcome. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Equity-research/2026/2/bts-group---ahead-of-plan-on-growth-recovery/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Equity-research/2026/2/bts-group---ahead-of-plan-on-growth-recovery/ 2026-02-20 16:15:08 SE0000805426 Analys Sales +12% vs. ABGSCe, EBIT SEK 1.2m (vs. 2.4m) Recovery in OEM business after weaker Q2/Q3, sales up +40% Inventory levels down but cash flow soft, FCF of SEK -3.8m Q4 results Q4 sales were SEK 70m (+33% y-o-y and +12% vs. ABGSCe 63m). Residential continues to be the sales driver, with sales of SEK 67m (vs. 48m LY), while Commercial remains weak (SEK 3.1m, -42% q-o-q and -29% y-o-y). OEM sales increased to SEK 52m (SEK 37m LY), following the temporary inventory build-up in Q2/Q3. Despite the higher than expected sales, gross margins contracted to 33% (44% LY, ABGSCe 35%) and EBIT came in at SEK 1.2m (vs. ABGSCe 2.4m, -5m LY). Moreover, although we find it positive that inventory levels were down, FCF was on the weaker side at SEK -3.8m (4.7m LY). The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 23m (54m LY). Estimate changes and outlook On numbers alone, '26e-'27e sales is impacted by +3% and EBIT by SEK -1.3m vs. FY'26e estimate of SEK 7m). On outlook, management indicates that volumes are likely to be lower in the opening quarters of '26 vs. Q4'25, partly due to seasonal variations. We find this likely given that Q1 tends to be a seasonally weaker quarter. However, the company expects a stronger second half, particularly Q4, supporting an improved financial position and progress toward break-even for FY'26. Valuation Prior to today's report, the share was down -15% L3M and is on our pre-report estimates and is trading at 4x-1x '26e-'27e P/E on our pre-report estimates. The company will host a presentation of the Q4 results at 10:00. Quarterly outcome vs. expectations Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2026/2/energy-save---oem-sales-up-softer-start-to-26-expected/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2026/2/energy-save---oem-sales-up-softer-start-to-26-expected/ 2026-02-20 08:15:27 SE0014428447 Analys +7% organic growth y-o-y, -1% vs. ABGSCe 13% adj. EBIT margin (vs. ABGSCe 6%) Cons to lower sales assumptions, but raise margins Q4 results Sales SEK 60m (-1% vs ABGSC 61m), adj. EBIT 8m (+112% vs ABGSC 4m). Cash flow weak, mainly due to significant NRIs that amounted to SEK 43m, of which SEK 25m relating to the recent divestment transaction and SEK 18m to personnel changes (mainly in UK). Encouragingly, the BoD is proposing a dividend of SEK 760m, corresponding to SEK 14/share following the recent divestment. This was above our expected SEK 600m. Q4 thoughts This was the second quarter with Formpipe's Public segment deconsolidated from the P&L, given the recent sale. The remaining business, Lasernet, saw organic sales increase by 7% y-o-y, which was slightly below our forecast of +9%. Meanwhile, costs were lower, resulting in an adj. EBIT margin of 13%, which was above our forecasted margin of 6%. This is the second consecutive quarter of better-than-expected profitability, and we expect Formpipe's increased focus on costs, including today's layoffs, to continue driving margin improvements. However, SaaS ACV was weak at only SEK 4m (ABGSCe SEK 11m), down from SEK 11m in Q4'24. This was a soft number given the solid momentum in Q3; however, given the recent management changes and the process of public divestment, the outcome is not entirely unexpected. Nevertheless, the weaker ACV figure will impact growth rates over the next few quarters. Estimate changes and valuation Formpipe's share is -11% YTD and is trading at 1.9x EV/sales on our unrevised 2026 estimates. It is a messy report, but our preliminary view is that consensus will lower both sales and cost assumptions for 2026, ultimately resulting in slightly negative adjustments to '26e EBIT. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2026/2/formpipe---weaker-acv-but-higher-dividends/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2026/2/formpipe---weaker-acv-but-higher-dividends/ 2026-02-20 08:15:07 SE0001338039 Analys Sales -9% but adj. EBITA +7% vs. consensus Margin improvement supported by cost efforts and Habberstad Consensus EBITA estimates likely down by mid single-digits Q4'25 report B3 reported Q4'25 sales of SEK 315m (-8% vs. ABGSCe 343m, -9% vs. FactSet consensus), representing an organic decline of 14%. The decline was primarily driven by fewer B3 consultants and subcontractors. Two, slightly offsetting factors were higher hourly prices and utilisation rates. Adj. EBITA came in at SEK 17m (+8% vs. ABGSCe 16m, +7% vs. consensus), representing a margin of 5.4%, which was better than we expected, but it was also cost-driven. More specifically, it was due to lower overhead costs in Sweden. Thoughts and outlook The market environment remains soft, with negative net recruitment and cautious customer behaviour. However, B3 has adjusted its cost base relatively meaningfully as avg. FTEs declined ~10% y-o-y to 899 (1,005). While volumes remain somewhat soft in Sweden, the operations in Poland and Norway should help support earnings growth going forward. Consensus estimate revisions On our unrevised estimates, B3 is trading at 5x '26e EV/EBITA. Mechanically, the impact on consensus EBITA estimates should be within a negative mid single-digit range when considering the reduced number of consultants and the somewhat lower overhead costs that offset the negative impact a bit. A presentation by the company will be hosted at 9.00 CET ( link ). Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, Company data. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2026/2/b3-consulting-group---margin-beat-on-cost-cuts/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2026/2/b3-consulting-group---margin-beat-on-cost-cuts/ 2026-02-20 08:00:36 SE0008347660 Analys Sales -1% vs cons, adj. EBITA -14%, but North America guided to grow in Q1e 2026 guidance: "Better EBITA than in 2025" (cons +12%) but base will come down Estimates likely cut 5-10%, share to underperform somewhat Q4 details Sales SEK 710m (-1% vs ABG 718m, -1% vs cons 718m), adj. EBITA 96m (-13% vs ABG 111m, -14% vs cons 112m), adj. EBITA margin 12.1% (ABG 15.4%, cons 15.6%). Adj. EBITA -29% y-o-y (ABG -18%, cons -17%). Organic growth -5% (ABG -2%, cons -2%). DPS SEK 4.40 (24% vs ABG 3.55, -2% vs cons 4.49). North America behind miss in Q4 Still challenging in North America (EBITA -37% vs cons) while Ok performance in Europe and Other markets. The North American turnaround is progressing well however. Guides for "higher EBITA 2026 vs 2025" on group level as expected (cons +12%). Q-o-q EBITA decline in North America marks the end in Q4 and will grow organically and improve profit y-o-y already in Q1 given actions taken, according to BTS. AI innovation across the firm is benefitting BTS in three ways: 1) a more competitive portfolio with bookings from the AI bot technology at USD 5m in 2025 (5x vs 2024), 2) new services spanning AI adoption and workflow with AI related services of USD 14m in 2025 (+690% vs 2024), and 3) internal simplifications with another SEK 24m cost reductions realised in 2026. All of these drivers are behind the outlook guidance to drive EBITA growth again. Estimates down 5-10% We expect consensus to reduce 2026 EBITA by 5-10% due to the Q4 miss and lower base although guidance was as expected, and share should underperform similarly today, although it has traded weak into numbers (-28% YTD). Conf call CET 9.30. Deviation Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Equity-research/2026/2/bts-group---north-america-behind-q4-miss/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Equity-research/2026/2/bts-group---north-america-behind-q4-miss/ 2026-02-20 08:00:07 SE0000805426 Analys We expect nearly 40% organic growth... ...and gross margin expansion in '26e Reiterate fair value range of SEK 30-45 Higher platform usage drove growth The Q4'25 report was better than we had expected. Sales increased by ~75% y-o-y, mainly driven by higher platform usage among users. In constant currency terms, the y-o-y growth was 86%. A large contributor to the growth was increased platform usage, i.e. users consuming more digital learning materials (revenue from partners). This meant that ARPPU also grew sequentially, but that the gross margin (less capitalised costs) of 26% took a small hit. This was also partly due to contract signings seemingly being tilted toward the end of the year. Raising EBITDA by 4-2% for '26e-'27e We raise '26e-'27e sales by 4-3% after the report. We also raise our EBITDA estimates by 4-2% for the same period. This reflects the continued user growth, slightly higher ARPPU and continued investments in the business. However, it also reflects a somewhat lower gross margin than we had previously forecast because users seem to increasingly be using third-party apps through Skolon's platform. Implied valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at '26e-'27e 7-5x EV/Gross profit (GP less capitalised work). We continue to see clear scalability in the model, as the platform supports additional users in existing geographies without significant cost increases. Even though EBITDA may be volatile from time to time due to growth investments and the timing of contract signings, the earnings power potential is significant over longer time horizons. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2026/2/skolon---q425-momentum-to-also-pay-off-in-h126/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2026/2/skolon---q425-momentum-to-also-pay-off-in-h126/ 2026-02-20 07:45:07 SE0017615784 Analys An EBIT increase to SEK 6m (3m) in Q4'25 We raise EBIT by 2-3% for '26e-'27e Well positioned for a market recovery in 2026 Q4'25 report Ogusen reported Q4'25 sales of SEK 115m, up 1% y-o-y, ending nine consecutive quarters of declining revenue. The consulting segment grew 2% y-o-y, to SEK 106m, reflecting gradually improving demand. Recruitment sales (~8% of total sales LTM) declined 16% y-o-y, to SEK 9m, as the market remains weak and slightly volatile. Overall, competition continues to be tough, and pricing pressure remains high, limiting the margin expansion potential. Demand is somewhat stable but dependent on winning new assignments, and pricing continues to vary by client. Total FTEs amounted to 372, up q-o-q and flat y-o-y. We expect the headcount to remain broadly stable in the near term. EBIT improved to SEK 6m, with a 5.2% margin, compared to SEK 3m last year, supported by stable volumes. The company proposed a dividend of SEK 1.50 for a payout ratio of ~100%, which is in line with the five-year average. EBIT up by 2-3% for '26e-'27e With signs of stabilisation and easier comparables in 26'e, we increase our estimates slightly. We raise sales by 2% and EBIT by 2-3% for '26e-'27e. We expect a gradual market improvement, although margin expansion is likely to remain limited in the near team due to continued price sensitivity. As demand gradually improves and activity levels normalise, we expect revenue momentum to continue building through '26. Trading at 10-8x EV/EBIT for '26e-'27e Ogunsen is trading at 10-8x EV/EBIT for '26e-'27e. 2026 should benefit from easier comps and gradual improvement in activity. The consulting segment continues to show relative strength, positioning the company well in the early phase of a recovery cycle. As recruitment activity normalises, this could provide additional upside to estimates. Overall, we see improving fundamentals supporting a stronger earnings profile over the coming years. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ogunsen/Equity-research/2026/2/ogunsen---easier-comps-await-in-26e-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ogunsen/Equity-research/2026/2/ogunsen---easier-comps-await-in-26e-/ 2026-02-20 07:30:07 SE0008406151 Analys Orders +4%, sales +6%, adj. EBITA +15% vs. ABGSCe Guides for 2.3-2.5bn sales and 6% margin in '26: in line Strong report with recovery materialising as expected Q4 results Orders were down 9% y-o-y and 4% above our estimate. Sales grew 24% y-o-y and were 6% above our estimate. With a margin of 6.9%, 0.5pp above our estimate, EBITA adj. was 15% above our estimate. EBITA included non-recurring items with a negative margin impact of 1.0pp, pertaining mainly to restructuring costs in Enedo. Lease adj. FCF was 17m, bringing the R12m figure to 43m, i.e. 142% of net income. The strong results were driven by y-o-y improvements in both segments. There is a conference call at 09:00 CET: webcast Estimate changes The Q4 numbers in isolation imply EBITA adj. comes up 5%. The company guided for sales of SEK 2.3-2.5bn with an EBITA margin >6% in '26, which can be compared to our estimates of 2.39bn with a margin of 6.8%. We consider this in line with our expectations as the margin target should likely be read as a lower limit. Company valuation Over the past three months, the share has returned +12%, compared to the Nordic EMS peer median of +7% and the +11% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 15x-9.0x '25e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 13x-8.9x and peers at 22x-13x. Outcome vs. estimates Q4'25 Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2026/2/inission---recovery-continues-to-materialise/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2026/2/inission---recovery-continues-to-materialise/ 2026-02-20 07:00:06 SE0016275069 Analys Sales +34% vs EBIT adj. EUR 3.9m vs. ABGSCe 0.7m Orders in line vs. ABGSCe, several large orders in the quarter Market still cautious, cost saving initiatives in 2026 Q4 results Cavotec reported strong Q4 results with a beat on all line items. Order intake came in at EUR 48m (in line vs. ABGSCe 48m). Sales came in at EUR 50m (+34% vs. ABGSCe 37m), +9% y-o-y (+11% org.). EBIT adj. was EUR 3.9m (vs. ABGSCe 0.70m), for a margin of +8% (ABGSCe 1.9%). EBIT has been adjusted for a one-off of EUR 0.24m related to the relocation of Cavotec's registered office from Switzerland to Sweden. Industry showed improved margins, with an EBITDA margin of 16% (vs. ABGSCe 4.3%), thanks to the recently implemented change programmes. While, Ports & Maritime reported weaker EBITDA margins y-o-y (12% vs. 18% LY). Cash flow was strong in the quarter and FCF lease adj. came in at EUR 4.4m (vs. ABGSCe -1.4m). Estimates and outlook On numbers alone, '25e-'27e sales change by +8%, and EBIT adj. changes by +EUR 3m. While Q4 was a strong quarter, management says the outlook is uncertain and customers remain cautious, so the company has decided to initiate cost savings heading into 2026. Valuation The share has returned -15% L3M (vs. peer median +17% and OMXSALLS +11%), and is currently trading at 39x-19x '26e-'27e P/E on our pre-report estimates vs. the peer median of 21x-18x. The company is hosting a conference call at 10:00 CET. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/2/cavotec---strong-q4-but-cautious-outlook/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/2/cavotec---strong-q4-but-cautious-outlook/ 2026-02-20 06:45:06 CH0136071542 Analys Q4: +27% sales growth, 1.5% EBITDA margin '26e-'27e EBITDA up 2-3% Continues to show improvements 2025 was an important year Tempest continues to deliver improvements, with Q4 sales 12% above ABGSCe but EBITDA SEK 1.2m below. Guarding grew sales by 35% and EBITDA from SEK 1m to SEK 8m. A solid improvement, where the contracts signed in late 2024 are starting to show in the numbers. It is still far from historical levels, and we think more can be done on efficiency. Risk Solutions declined SEK 1m on top line but improved its EBITDA from loss-making in Q4'24 to SEK 2m profit in Q4'25, with solid results in the UK and profitable results in Denmark. Looking ahead, management pointed to good demand with the need for reliable deliveries, flexibility and long-term thinking rather than short-term needs, and that price is not always the decisive factor. Pricing has been a factor in the security space, and we think that Tempest, with help from the shifting focus in the market, can raise its margins by having price discipline and being selective on bidding. '26e sales up 8% and EBITDA up 2% We raise '26e sales by 8% on the good performance and momentum in Guarding. We expect the performance to continue as Tempest maintains its core business focus and continues its efficiency improvements, while Denmark and the UK are delivering better results. Q4 is a seasonally weaker quarter, but we expect the progress to continue. Focus on core operations We believe the company has taken important steps throughout the year, with the divestment of the US and the turnaround in Denmark. There are further efficiencies to be gained from the newly signed contracts in Guarding, as profitability typically increases gradually after the initial start-up period. This is because the additional costs associated with extra hiring decrease, planning and efficiency improve and Tempest can sell additional services that improve profitability. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2026/2/tempest-security---guarding-gains-ground/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2026/2/tempest-security---guarding-gains-ground/ 2026-02-20 05:45:08 SE0010469221 Analys Strong Q4, with EBIT 82% ahead of our forecast We lift '26e EBIT by 17% on positive sales revisions Ovzon-3 still not at full capacity: 19x 2026e EV/EBIT Strong Q4, both in terms of sales and margins Ovzon ended 2025 on a strong note, with Q4 sales +159% y-o-y, driven by recent order announcements. This was 18% above our estimate, primarily due to higher terminal sales (coming in at SEK 100m vs our forecast of SEK 65m), but also due to higher SATCOM sales. Typically, this sales mix would have a negative impact on margins, but the gross margin in Q4 was surprisingly strong at 58%, which we believe was potentially due to favourable FX and price adjustments. With an incremental EBIT margin of 54%, Ovzon demonstrated the high operational leverage in its business model, driving EBIT 83% ahead of our forecast. FCF was also good, driven by pre-payments. In our view, this shift in payment terms signals strength and underlines robust demand and Ovzon's strong market position. Positive estimate revisions The recent increase in order activity meant that the Q4 backlog of SEK 1bn remained robust. This provides high visibility for estimates, with ~800m of our SEK 1,068m sales forecast for 2026 being covered by the current backlog. Throughout the year, we expect Ovzon to announce more orders, including those related to Ovzon-3. We expect Ovzon-3 will reach ~50% utilisation in Q2e (driven by an order from a NATO customer), and ~70% in Q4e. Also, we highlight that 2026 will be another strong year in terms of terminals, which is positive for the future as it is a good indicator for SATCOM demand. All in all, we lift '26e adj. EBIT by 17% on positive sales revisions. Demand is supporting more satellite projects The stock is up 34% YTD, trading at 19x '26e EV/EBIT on our new estimates. Given the recent momentum, we continue to see upside risks to forecasts, and look forward towards getting more details around potentially new satellite projects (which current de... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/2/ovzon---operating-leverage-coming-through/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/2/ovzon---operating-leverage-coming-through/ 2026-02-19 16:15:06 SE0010948711 Analys Sales +SEK 17m, EBITDA -SEK 1.2m vs. ABGSCe '26e-'27e EBITDA estimates likely flat Share to focus on the volume and earnings improvements Q4 details Tempest delivered a Q4 report with both sales and EBITDA growth. Sales came in at SEK 155m (12%% vs. ABGSCe), 27% y-o-y, driven by Guarding, and partly offset by Risk Solutions. EBITDA grew SEK 8m y-o-y to SEK 2.4m (-SEK 1.2m, vs. ABGSCe), for a margin of 1.5% (ABGSCe 2.6%, -4.4% Q4'24) driven by both Guarding and Risk Solutions. Looking at y-o-y development, we see positive progress in Guarding, where the new contracts signed in late 2024 are now starting to show in the numbers; the initial costs have been absorbed and volumes have increased. There is a SEK 0.5m one-off cost due to restructuring. Estimate changes and outlook Looking ahead, management is not providing a formal outlook. However, they acknowledge that focus remains to increase the internal efficiency, cost control after a period of streamlining the organisation. We consider Tempest's positive internal development to be signs that it is taking important steps in the right direction. We expect estimates for '26e-'27e adj. EBITDA to stay relatively flat. Final thoughts A report in the right direction report with sales and profitability growth. The share has underperformed the broader market into numbers (-13% YTD vs. OMXSGI +5%). We believe that the market will recognise the volume and earnings improvements resulting from Tempest's hard internal work. pagebreak Outcome vs. expectations Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2026/2/tempest-security---solid-steps-forward/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2026/2/tempest-security---solid-steps-forward/ 2026-02-19 08:30:05 SE0010469221 Analys Sales +1% vs. ABGSCe (-13% y-o-y), adj. EBIT +9% vs. ABGSCe Has initiated cost measures, aiming to save SEK 18m (5% of opex) We expect cons to cut '26e adj. EBIT ~25% Q4 results Q4 sales were SEK 3,639m (+1% vs. ABGSCe 3,609m), -13% y-o-y. Gross profit was SEK 150m (0% vs. ABGSCe SEK 150m), -10% y-o-y, while adj. EBIT was SEK 36m (+9% vs. ABGSCe 33m), down 33% y-o-y. Note that we have adjusted for a SEK 20m amortisation of immaterial assets (capitalised development costs). The gross margin improved well in y-o-y terms, but took a step back sequentially after a period of significant improvements. Q4 orders declined 14% y-o-y. Q4 thoughts The Nordic consultancy market has recently been challenging, which continues to affect demand for Ework's services. In particular, we have observed weakness in the automotive industry, a situation that has been exacerbated recently by Volvo Car's layoffs. As this is a significant end market for Ework, the impact is substantial. Alongside the results, Ework announced that it has initiated a transformation programme to increase operational efficiency, including changes to the management framework. This will drive annual cost savings of ~SEK 18m, with an impact that will build gradually throughout 2026, and corresponds to ~5% of opex. In light of the recent profitability trend, this is welcome news and will support margins going forward. Even so, the outlook is lacklustre, with Ework noting a weak market, and that it has entered 2026 with lower volumes and a weak trend in orders. Consequently, it expects 2026 EPS down 10-20% versus 2025. Estimate changes Following the Q4 report, we expect consensus to cut '26e adj. EBIT estimates by ~25% due to lower sales assumptions, slightly offset by the cost out measures. There will be a conference call at 09.30 CET, link. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2026/2/ework-group---soft-orders-taking-actions-on-costs/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2026/2/ework-group---soft-orders-taking-actions-on-costs/ 2026-02-19 08:15:06 SE0002402701 Analys Q4 sales 20% higher than ABGSCe SEK 41m Lower gross margin likely due to higher share of partner revenues Likely slightly positive consensus estimate revisions Q4'25 report Skolon delivered net sales of SEK 50m (20% vs ABGSCe 41m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth of 76% (26pp vs ABGSCe 50%), higher than expected. The gross margin decreased to 26% (-5pp vs ABGSCe 31%), likely impacted a higher share of partner sales. EBITDA amounted to SEK -1m (1m vs ABGSCe -2m), ARPPU came in at SEK 191 (6% vs ABGSCe 180), and the number of paying users amounted to SEK 1,031k (-1% vs ABGSCe 1,044k). Thoughts and outlook The report was better than expected, and Skolon continues to grow strongly, with increasing traction internationally. ARPPU continues to improve, demonstrating the company's ability to upsell, notably through higher partner revenues (as indicated by the lower gross margin in the quarter). At the same time, Skolon has made investments across Europe, which are reflected in lower profitability. While these investments have a near-term impact on profitability, they are in line with the strategy, which we believe will strengthen the company’s long-term position. Consensus estimate revisions and valuation The share is down nearly 20% YTD and is trading at 7-5x '26e-'27e EV/Gross profit on our unrevised estimates. Following the report, we believe that consensus will raise sales estimates by low single-digits. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2026/2/skolon---continues-to-execute-well/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2026/2/skolon---continues-to-execute-well/ 2026-02-19 08:00:07 SE0017615784 Analys Sales +159% y-o-y on recent orders; +18%/+16% vs. ABG/cons EBIT was +83% vs. ABG and +82% vs. cons Expect cons to raise '26e EBIT 5-10%, share to outperform today Q4 results Sales SEK 277m (18% vs ABGSCe 234m and 16% vs cons 239m), adj. EBIT 74m (83% vs ABG 41m and 82% vs cons 41m). As expected, NWC trends remained favourable, resulting in FCF of SEK 133m (vs. SEK 52m in Q4'24). This resulted in a NIBD of SEK 252m, down from 642m in Q4'24. The order book stood at a robust SEK 1.0bn by the end of Q4, driven by recent orders, including a terminal order from FMV and a milestone contract with a NATO customer (60% of which comprised terminals and 40% SATCOM). Q4 thoughts After quiet period in terms of order announcements, this improved markedly in Q4. Furthermore, sales continued to improve, driven by deliveries of recent orders. Here, SATCOM revenue was slightly ahead of our forecast (SEK 177m vs. ABGSCe SEK 169m), but the main sales beat came from higher terminal sales, amounting to SEK 100m (ABGSCe SEK 65m) and accounting for 36% of Q4 revenue. Although gross margins declined sequentially amid mix effects and the ramp-up of expanded third-party capacity (related to the SEK 1bn FMV order from mid-25), this was expected, and the Q4 level of 58% was better than our forecast 54%. In terms of outlook, Ovzon highlights a growing demand, particularly in Europe. Furthermore, it says that it is entering 2026 with a strong momentum, underpinned by the robust backlog that provides multi-year revenue visibility. Estimate changes At a first glance, we expect consensus to raise '26e EBIT by 5-10%, mainly driven by higher gross margin assumptions. All in all, another strong report, and we expect the share to outperform the market today. The stock is trading at 20x '26e EV/EBIT on our unrevised estimates. There is a conference call 10.00 CET (link) . Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, Modular Finance for cons https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/2/ovzon---better-than-expected-across-the-line/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/2/ovzon---better-than-expected-across-the-line/ 2026-02-19 07:45:05 SE0010948711 Analys Q4 a bump in the road but we remain optimistic on outlook Estimates down given a lower AUM base 2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 3-5x with easy comps Q4 softer than expected Catella's Q4 results were below both ABGSC and FactSet consensus expectations, with EBIT coming in at SEK 11m (63m) compared to ABGSCe of SEK 101m. The results were negatively impacted by a SEK 151m impairment of KöTower, one of Catella's Principal Investments, following an updated property value assessment. The underlying performance within Investment Management and Corporate Finance stood out positively in the quarter. As such, we see the negative share price reaction of -14% as unjustifiably harsh. We remain optimistic about 2026 given the macro backdrop, with variable fees within Investment Management expected to pick up as transaction activity gradually increases. This should drive both improved margins and bottom-line earnings growth in the coming quarters. Lower AUM base cuts our 2026-27 forecasts As AUM in Q4 came in 3% below our forecast, we have cut our AUM estimates, which lowers our earnings forecasts within Investment Management. In sum, our group EBIT estimates are reduced by 14% for 2026 and 7% for 2027 following the report. Despite lower estimates, we continue to forecast strong earnings growth in the coming years, with the help of market activity picking up. 2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 3-5x with dividend yield of 4-8% Despite Q4 falling short of our expectations, we think the company has many attractive fundamentals, including an impressive track record within Investment Management. The balance sheet remains strong, with a cash position of SEK 1.6bn (~85% of market cap), providing Catella with the necessary resources should the right opportunities arise. The comps are easy, and we believe the transaction activity outlook is promising. When applying our latest revisions, Catella is trading at an EV/EBIT of 3-5x for 2026e-27e and a dividend yield of 4-8%. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2026/2/catella---a-promising-2026-outlook/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2026/2/catella---a-promising-2026-outlook/ 2026-02-18 10:45:07 SE0000188518 Analys