https://cr.abgsc.com/feed/allsix/ News and articles from cr.abgsc.com ABG Sundal Collier - Commissioned research (cr.abgsc.com) ABG Sundal Collier - Commissioned research (cr.abgsc.com) research@abgsc.com (cr.abgsc.com) research@abgsc.com (cr.abgsc.com) Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:15:04 GMT Profit warning ahead of Q1'26 - results due 5 May 3.6% organic decline in sales (-17% in SEK) Mid-range EBIT for Q1'26e implies -23% on ABGSCe FY'26e Q1 sales 24% below ABGSCe OssDsign has pre-announced Q1'26 sales of USD 4m, or SEK 37m, and EBIT of SEK -14m to -12m. This compares with our Q1'26e sales of SEK 49m and EBIT of SEK -7m. Hence, sales were 24% below ABGSCe and down 17% y-o-y, versus our expectation of 9% growth. In USD terms, sales declined 4% y-o-y. The company attributes the shortfall to limited sales channel expansion in late 2025, departures among sales staff, and temporarily slower activity in key accounts during contract negotiations. Estimates to come down We expect negative estimate revisions following the preliminary numbers. The EBIT guidance mid-point of SEK -13m is SEK 6m below our Q1'26e expectations of SEK -7m and implies -23% on our FY'26e EBIT estimate of SEK -27m. While management highlights that some of the issues were temporary, it points to weaker commercial execution, which may take time to normalise. Warranted share price reaction The miss in Q1'26 is substantial, both on sales and EBIT, and it is likely to weaken confidence in the near-term growth trajectory for Catalyst after several quarters with flattish development. Even if some of the weakness proves temporary, the market is likely to focus on the increased uncertainty around the sales growth. The new CEO is in the process of building up, to some degree, a new sales and marketing team in the US, which may take some time, creating short term volatility in the sales development, as illustrated in Q1. The share is currently down 36%, which is more than the expected earnings revisions, but likely factors in the risk of continued sales disruptions in Q2, which we do not believe is unrealistic. Q1 prel deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2026/4/ossdsign---declining-sales-in-q1/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2026/4/ossdsign---declining-sales-in-q1/ Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:15:04 GMT SE0012570448 Analys Xplora has the tools to drive a good senior conversion rate We forecast a ~30% EBITA CAGR from '25e to '28e... ... leading EV/EBITA to drop from 17x in '25 to 6.5x in '28e We slightly postpone the ramp-up of senior subscriptions... Q4 was another strong quarter, driven by strong device revenue and GM in the senior segment. The ARPU was disappointing, however, and we therefore cut ARPU by 8% for ‘27e-‘28e. We have also delayed the ramp-up of subscriptions in the senior segment, as Xplora has not yet announced that it has reached a meaningful number of subs (>10k). Hence, we lower our expectation for senior subscriptions at YE'26 from to 62k to 34k. Additionally, we extend the ramp-up period, and now expect it to reach a steady state conversion rate of 12% in Q4’27e (from Q1’27e, which was likely too optimistic) with a gradual ramp-up until then. This is, however, mostly offset by a higher conversion rate in the Kids segment. This lifts ‘26e EBITA by 17%, but lowers ‘28e by 4%. ... but still see good long-term potential With ~1.2m senior phones sold annually, converting senior customers to recurring subscribers is the key value driver. By the end of H1’26, Doro Connect will be live on its own webstores across all markets, followed by a retail rollout. We have looked at the LTV/CAC of product discounting and argue that as long as the GM is 60% or higher, the LTV/CAC of giving free feature phones in exchange for subscriptions is very attractive (see inside the report). We therefore argue that Xplora has the necessary tools to drive a high conversion rate in the senior segment. Keep in mind that we have assumed some CAC in our estimates which is directly expensed over the P&L, underestimating the underlying earnings. If we rather were to capitalise it and depreciate it over five years, '27e EBITA would increase by NOK 30m or 12%. Fair value range of NOK 47-81/share Xplora is now trading at 13.9x '2... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/4/xplora-technologies---si-si-senior/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/4/xplora-technologies---si-si-senior/ Fri, 10 Apr 2026 05:00:06 GMT NO0010895782 Analys Memory prices could cause pre-buying in H1 and setback thereafter Good earnings resilience, 8% adj. EBITA growth in 2026e 7.2x 2026e EV/EBITA and good financial headroom Effects from rising memory prices yet to be seen Dell and NetApp have concluded price increases on storage products amid the rises in input costs, which Proact will pass on to customers as a re-seller. This therefore has a larger impact on the top line than the bottom line. Some customers may have tried to pre-buy products before the price increases, which could support volumes in Q1, while some may become more cautious about new orders, which instead would serve as a headwind. Another factor to have in mind is prolonged delivery times in the recent demand environment and the potential for inflated orders, which we will have limited insight into as Proact does not report orders but only recognises revenues at the time of delivery. We expect H1'26 volumes to be OK, supported by both some pre-buying and price increases, while there is a risk of a setback in system sales in H2'26 if delivery times move volumes into 2027. For Q1, we estimate 3% organic growth and adj. EBITA of SEK 85m, up 8% y-o-y for a margin of 6.9% (6.5%). Reduced estimate visibility, but resilient earnings power We make small positive adjustments to our organic growth estimates for system sales in H1'26, but small negative changes in H2, followed by somewhat higher ones in 2027e. However, we acknowledge that there are several moving parts, and the estimate risks are therefore high. Combined with good cost control, we see adj. EBITA growth throughout the whole of 2026e (+5-15% on quarterly basis and +8% full-year). All in all, we raise adj. EBITA by 1-2% in 2026e-28e including small positive FX effects. Share at ~7x 2026e EV/EBITA On our revised estimates, the share is trading at 7.2x 2026e EV/EBITA, 28% below peers, and Proact has the financial capability to pay dividends, buy back shares and acquire companie... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/4/proact---low-top-line-visibility-better-bottom-line/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/4/proact---low-top-line-visibility-better-bottom-line/ Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:30:05 GMT SE0015961222 Analys Relatively light comps in Q1e, but market still tough We raise '26e-'28e EBIT by 1-3% Trading at 6.3x NTM EV/EBIT A solid underlying Q1e, offset by FX We expect positive organic growth of 2% in Q1'26e, which implies sales of SEK 238m and adj. EBIT of ~SEK 21m, corresponding to a margin of 8.9%, in line with last year. We expect the gross margin to slightly decline (-0.2pp) to 44.6%, although we note that this is a strong Q1 margin in a historical context and that the GM is highly affected by product mix. We keep in mind that the Chinese New Year occurred in early January 2025, which caused customers to place orders in Q4'24 rather than Q1'25. Due to this, Q1'26e should face relatively light comps in terms of sales growth. We expect Nilörn's order intake to be within the range of SEK 230m-250m. This is in line with Nilörn's average order intake on an LTM basis, and ~10-20% above the historical average of ~SEK 205m. Minor positive estimate changes We have made minor positive changes to our '26e-'28e sales and EBIT, raising them by 2% and 1-3%, respectively. The changes primarily follow positive FX movements, as we cut our organic growth estimates due to EU retail sales having shown a slightly softer trend than previously anticipated. While we make positive changes to our GM assumptions, the impact from this is offset by an increase in opex in '26e. Implied valuation On our updated estimates, Nilörn is trading at 6.3x-4.1x '26e-'28e adj. EV/EBIT. For context, Nilörn has traded at a median of 9.4x NTM EV/EBIT over the last five years. We are optimistic about the mid-term outlook for Nilörn, as we expect an improving consumer climate that will lead Nilörn's clients to increase sales and build inventory, especially in the luxury retail market. Moreover, we remain encouraged by Nilörn's investments in its Bangladeshi production facility, and believe this will facilitate efforts to reach the 10% EBIT margin target. ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2026/4/nilorn---fx-masks-underlying-stability/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2026/4/nilorn---fx-masks-underlying-stability/ Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:00:03 GMT SE0007100342 Analys We expect near-term headwinds: Q1 EBITA -8% y-o-y Soft UK forecasts mean we lower '26e-'28e EBITA by 4-1% We lower our fair value range to SEK 55-75, 10x-13x '26e EV/EBITA Higher shipping rates and ROT hangover could weigh on Q1 Seeing soft macro signals from the UK and Sweden, Svedbergs Group's two largest markets, and also tougher comparable growth figures sequentially, we expect a deceleration in organic growth of 4% in Q1, for net sales of SEK 580m. We expect freight-related gross margin pressure in Roper Rhodes to partly offset pricing initiatives, for a 30bp gross margin expansion, but higher opex related to selling initiatives will weigh on margins, for an EBITA margin contraction of 80bp to 14.9% and EBITA of SEK 86m, -8% y-o-y. Soft signals from the UK lead to 4% lower '26e EBITA We cut our group '26e-'28e EBITA estimates by 4-1%, lowering our EBITA forecasts for the Svedbergs and Roper Rhodes segments. We cut our Svedbergs estimates near-term on a soft ROT backdrop, as we assess that a disproportionate number of bathroom projects were done before the new year to benefit from the then-higher tax deductions. We cut our Roper Rhodes figures as well on the back of soft CPA forecasts and higher freight rates, which we believe could have a negative impact on Roper Rhodes' gross margins, in particular given the business model with production in China. Updated FX rates offset some of our estimate cuts, however. We lower our fair value range to SEK 55-75 (57-77) The Svedbergs share has returned 2% YTD, and is now trading at 12.1x '26e EV/EBITA. We lower our fair value range to SEK 55-75 (57-77) in this note, which corresponds to '26e EV/EBITA of 10x-13x. We argue the most relevant peers to Svedbergs Group are Nordic home improvement companies, which are trading at an average 11.6x '26e EV/EBITA. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/4/svedbergs-group---uk-outlook-has-become-bleaker/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/4/svedbergs-group---uk-outlook-has-become-bleaker/ Tue, 07 Apr 2026 15:00:03 GMT SE0000407991 Analys https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Media/2026/03/proact---fireside-chat-with-president--ceo-magnus-lonn/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Media/2026/03/proact---fireside-chat-with-president--ceo-magnus-lonn/ Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:30:00 GMT SE0015961222 5neTU0vl-m0 Media Q1e: 10% organic sales growth, 4% adj. EBITA margin We cut our EBITA estimates by 7-2% Trading at 9x '26e EV/EBITA Q1e: strong organic growth, but soft margins We expect Q1 to be strong in terms of organic growth, as Careium will no longer face comps that include financial lease agreements. We reiterate our view that Q1e will be soft on earnings, as margins will be highly affected by investments in organic growth and negative sales mix. We expect Q1 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 216m and SEK 9m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of 10% and a margin of 4.1%, compared to 8.4% Q1'25. In the UK & Ireland, we expect 2% organic growth, which is offset by an FX effect of -11%. We keep in mind that service sales in this segment were positively affected by a one-time revenue recognition in Q1'25, therefore presenting tough comps. The UK one-off also had a positive effect on the gross margin, and as such we expect a GM of 42.5%, which is an arguably strong GM in a broader context, but down 2pp y-o-y. Growth investments a necessary evil We have revised our estimates and lower '26e-'28e sales by 2%, driven by a decrease in the '26e organic growth rate of 1.3pp and an updated FX drag of an additional 1.1pp. Due to the scalable nature of Careium's business, this spills over into lowered adj. EBITA of 7-2% in '26e-'28e. We slightly lower the '26e adj. EBITA margin by 0.4pp, which coupled with FX headwinds contributes to the lowered earnings estimates. We believe that keeping the opex base slightly elevated is a regrettable necessity to enable growth, and view this phase as positive from a LT perspective. Trading at 9x NTM EBITA On our updated estimates, Careium is trading at '26e-'28e multiples of 9x-6x EV/EBITA and 10x-7x P/E, where we highlight '26e-'28e organic sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 8% and 23%, respectively. For context, Careium has historically traded at an average of 8x NTM EV/EBITA and 11x NTM P/E. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2026/4/careium---entering-a-growth-focused-period/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2026/4/careium---entering-a-growth-focused-period/ Wed, 01 Apr 2026 16:15:04 GMT SE0017131824 Analys Q1'26 numbers due on 29 April at 07:45 CET Near-term caution, but the model should continue to prove itself Fair value range down to SEK 190-270 (200-280) Q1'26 should be marked by cold weather We expect colder-than-usual temperatures and severe weather warnings in Poland, Germany and Romania to have impacted patient activity in Q1, although an improvement in March likely softened the overall impact. In HS, we forecast organic growth of 7% and an EBITDAaL margin of 10.0%, as lower activity during periods of severe weather should be partly offset by continued operational progress and improving efficiency across the network. Within DS, we pencil in organic growth of 6% and an EBITDAaL margin of 15.9%, with volumes also likely affected by disrupted patient flows. Overall, this translates into total sales of EUR 607m, driven by organic growth of 7% and adj. EBITDA of EUR 97m, corresponding to a margin of 16.0%, up 30bps y-o-y. Near-term volumes down, but margins should be protected Ahead of Q1, we lower our estimates to reflect our expectation of weaker short-term activity and FX, taking down adj. EBITDA by 2% for '26e-'28e, but with no changes to the long-term case. If anything, our recent Warsaw visit reinforced our view of Poland as a key growth and margin driver over the coming years, supported by a more margin-accretive capex mix, improving utilisation and stronger network effects. We therefore continue to see scope for profitable growth as the Polish business scales, while the operating improvements delivered over the past quarters should help protect margins despite softer Q1 volumes. Fair value range down to SEK 190-270 (200-280) On the back of our estimate revisions and relative valuation, we adjust our fair value range to SEK 190-270 (200-280). We derive our range from the trading multiples of two peer groups, one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds t... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/4/medicover---weather-is-set-to-be-a-drag/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/4/medicover---weather-is-set-to-be-a-drag/ Wed, 01 Apr 2026 15:45:05 GMT SE0009778848 Analys Q1e: flat organic growth and minor margin improvements Risenta acquisition adds 3.5% to FY sales Trading at '26e EV/EBITA of ~9.5x We expect a fairly uneventful Q1 We anticipate flat organic growth y-o-y in Q1'26e, implying sales of SEK 909m and adj. EBIT of SEK 38m, for a margin of 4.2%. We expect continued headwinds in South Europe, which are partly offset by organic growth improvements in North Europe and the Nordics. For the quarter, we expect an FX impact of -3% on net sales. We expect continued strength in the GM on product mix in Q1e. Our estimated adj. EBIT margin is up 0.3pp y-o-y, as we expect total opex to decline by 8%, partly on the recent cost savings initiatives. Moreover, Q1 will be positively affected by SEK 58m due to insurance compensation after the fire in Spain. Back to M&A Midsona issued a press release this morning stating that it is acquiring Swedish health food company Risenta, well know for its sesame-based snacks. The acquisition cost is SEK 45m and Risenta has an annual turnover of SEK ~130m, which would add ~3.5% to Midsona's full-year sales. The acquisition will go through on 1 June, and our estimated M&A growth for '26e-'27e is 2-1%. Midsona has not disclosed Risenta's profitability, although commented that it should be EBIT- and EPS-accretive. Assuming an EBIT margin in line with Midsona's '27e of ~6%, this would imply an EV/EBIT of ~7x compared to Midsona's 10x. We make limited changes to our organic estimates, with '26e-'27e sales and adj. EBITA are up 1-2% and 1-4%. We expect the nature of Risenta's business to weigh slightly on the GM, but carry less opex. Unadjusted '26e earnings are up significantly on the insurance payment. Implied valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~9.5x '26e adj. EV/EBITA, which is ~30% below current peer multiples. We note that peers are in turn trading ~7% below the 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2026/3/midsona---skipping-down-sesame-street/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2026/3/midsona---skipping-down-sesame-street/ Tue, 31 Mar 2026 16:00:05 GMT SE0000565228 Analys Strong A15 contribution, ’26e production up ~20% Recent Brage updates imply ~NOK 0.35 uplift to NAV Fair value range NOK 1.1-4.5 Q4 production 2.1 kboe/d vs. ABGSCe 2.2 kboe/d Q4'25 production was 2.1 kboe/d vs. ABGSCe 2.2 kboe/d, driven by slightly lower efficiency due to drilling the A15 well, which came on stream in Jan. EBITDA was USD 62m vs. ABGSCe of USD 77m, driven by higher costs despite the lower production, mainly caused by a change in over/underlift (a timing effect that evens out over time). PNO exited Q4 with a cash position of USD 74m, and we expect USD 166m at the end of Q1. Tallisker upgrade and discovery add ~NOK 0.35 to our NAV Based on January and February production updates from Lime Petroleum (34% interest in Brage), we know that the initial production contribution from the A15 well has been significantly higher than expected. This prompts us to lift ’26e production by ~20%. As we have not updated our oil price deck since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, we apply the forward curve for ’26e-’28e, while reiterating our long-term oil price assumption of USD 75/bbl thereafter. This lifts ’26e EBITDA by ~50%, while revisions to ’27e-’28e are more modest. Importantly, OKEA (operator on Brage) last week announced that estimated recoverable resources at Tallisker have increased from 16-33 mmboe to 23-44 mmboe. Additionally, a discovery at Knockando Fensfjord of 3.1-9.4 mmboe (if oil) or 2.5-5.7 mmboe (if gas) was announced in January. All else equal, these events lift our NAV by ~NOK 0.35/sh. We expect drilling at Tallisker to commence during H2’27, but keep this outside our estimates for now. Fair value range of NOK 1.1-4.5/sh Assuming a long-term Brent price of USD 50-100/bbl, we estimate a NAV of NOK 1.1-4.5/sh for PNO. We argue that the current share price of NOK 2.1 implies a discounted oil price of USD 64/bbl. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/petrolia-noco/Equity-research/2026/3/petrolia-noco---brage-builds-momentum-into-2026/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/petrolia-noco/Equity-research/2026/3/petrolia-noco---brage-builds-momentum-into-2026/ Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:45:06 GMT CY0102630916 Analys Q1: Sales of EUR 44m (39m), EBIT of EUR 2.5m (0.8m) 4% '26e EBIT raised following continued strength in Industry Trading at 16-9x EV/EBIT '26-'27e Q1 expectations We expect Q1 sales of EUR 44m, +13% y-o-y and -11% q-o-q. We expect sales of EUR 26m (+17% y-o-y) for Ports & Maritime, and EUR 18m (8% y-o-y) for Industry. During Q1, the company announced a shore power order for ports in southern Italy worth ~EUR 3.2m (~3% of Q4 backlog), with delivery expected within 9-18 months. In addition, delayed Ports & Maritime deliveries from the large Q4’24 orders are expected to be completed by June. We estimate Q1 order intake of ~EUR 37m (30% y-o-y, -23% q-o-q). On EBIT, we forecast EUR 2.5m (vs. 0.8m Q1'25) for a margin of 5.7% (1.9%). Estimate changes and outlook We extrapolate Industry's strong Q3-Q4’25 profitability and raise '26e group EBIT by 4%, primarily reflecting continued margins in excess of 10% within the segment. The industry benefits from a strong mining backdrop, with rising customer capex and increasing integration along the value chain. We also eye further potential for small, incremental innovation within the existing product portfolio as a driver of price increases ahead. Within the segment, construction activity remains subdued pending a broader sector recovery. The group-level EBIT raise also incorporates a slight cut on Ports & Maritime's EBIT, as we perceive margins to be somewhat softer following deliveries of Q4’24 orders proving less profitable than expected in Q4'25. However, we remain optimistic about the prospects for P&M overall, as we consider the customers' window for delaying investment decisions within P&M to be narrowing, with orders consequently materialising during the rest of the year. Valuation We view Industry’s development as encouraging and expect continued progress towards a more stable business in the coming quarters. The share is currently trading at 16-9x EV/EBIT... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/3/cavotec---industry-leading-the-way/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/3/cavotec---industry-leading-the-way/ Mon, 30 Mar 2026 16:45:03 GMT CH0136071542 Analys Q1e sales SEK 8m (10m), EBIT SEK -12m (-14m) Softer quarter due to absence of machine orders Trading at 1.3x-1.2x '26e-'28e EV/Sales Q1 expectations We expect Q1 sales of SEK 8m (10m), implying R12M sales of SEK 11m (29m). With no machine orders announced in the quarter, we expect a softer result, with sales driven by Coating Services (SEK 7m) and Aftermarket (SEK 2m). On EBIT, we forecast SEK -12m (-14m), and we expect the company to end the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 27m (26m), which can be compared to the R12m FCF lease adj. of SEK -47m. Estimate changes and outlook We lower '26e-'28e sales and EBIT by 2-1% and 4-2%, respectively, ahead of the Q1 report. We forecast two System deliveries for '26e, but highlight that estimate risk is high due to the current market situation. China's new hydrogen push China recently announced a comprehensive hydrogen pilot program to aggressively scale the industry by 2030, which could provide a much-needed momentum boost for Impact Coatings. Management has noted that slow market growth in China has delayed new machine orders. However, with government subsidies now driving demand for fuel cell vehicles and electrolysers, gradually increasing market volumes should encourage customers to transition from Services to in-house coating aiding the recovery of Impact's System sales. The company is currently trading at 1.3x-1.2x '26e-'28e EV/sales. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2026/3/impact-coatings---waiting-for-renewed-momentum/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2026/3/impact-coatings---waiting-for-renewed-momentum/ Mon, 30 Mar 2026 15:01:09 GMT SE0001279142 Analys Q1e sales 42m (57m), adj. EBIT SEK 9.8m (18m) Updated FX forecasts, we raise '26e-'28e sales by 4-5% Trading at '26e-'28e EV/EBIT of 8x-3x Q1 expectations We estimate sales of SEK 42m (57m), -27% y-o-y (-15%% org., -12% FX). I-Tech is facing tough comps into Q1, as the quarter was particularly strong last year (sales +49% y-o-y), as the Q1'25 result also included volumes from a large customer that has since reported financial constraints. On EBIT, we forecast SEK 9.8m (18m) for a margin of 24% (31%). Estimate changes We raise '26e-'28e sales by 4-5% on our updated FX forecasts, but lift personnel costs to reflect the recent hiring tied to the company's business development initiatives. This results in '26e-'28e adj. EBIT adjustments of +2-4%. Remain positive on long-term case Despite near-term organic headwinds, we think I-Tech is continuing to gain market share. Customer diversification is progressing well, with PPG (+126%), Kansai (+109%), and Jotun (+108%) all delivering triple-digit volume growth in FY'25, albeit from low bases. CMP volumes grew +21% in '25, and we expect a similar pace in '26e. We also see potential for normalisation in the financially constrained customer noted above. China, which is now ~26% of sales, remains a key growth market given its dominance in newbuild and drydocking, where new Selektope products are gaining traction. The stock is trading at 8x-3x EV/EBIT on '26e-'28e and 12x-7x P/E, i.e. ~50% below peers. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2026/3/i-tech---another-growth-breather-in-q1e/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2026/3/i-tech---another-growth-breather-in-q1e/ Mon, 30 Mar 2026 15:00:03 GMT SE0011167725 Analys Pedalling in a structurally growing European bike-sharing market +20% revenue CAGR in '25-'28e with strong margin expansion Fair value range of DKK 7-10/share Pedalling in high-growth European bike-sharing market Donkey Republic ("DONKEY") is a Danish bike-sharing operator, with core markets including Nordics (33%), Benelux (39%) and DACH (22%). Its fleet of ~24k pedal bikes and e-bikes is supported by a propietary software stack, with monetisation across rider revenues (66%), B2G and B2B revenues (31%) and software/hardware (3%). Competitive moats to drive market share gains Europe's bike-sharing fleet, part of the broader shared micromobility market, is projected to grow at +15% CAGR until '30e, with drivers including sustainability and health trends, seamless integration with public transportation systems and regulation. We believe several operational capabilities, such as the company's scalable operating model and data-driven approach, should be considered licences to operate rather than true moats, and we instead see DONKEY's competitive edge centred around its high-quality fleet (especially after roll-out of its Gen4 bike), its lower prices (price/cost is 50% of scoring in EU tenders), and stronger relations with cities it serves, coupled with solid positions in the Tier 2 and Tier 3 segments. Coupled with proven tender execution capabilities, we expect DONKEY to grow its European market share by 0.4pp up to '28e, to 6.2%. +20% revenue CAGR and hefty margin uplift; FVR of DKK 7-10 Considering market tailwinds and DONKEY's pipeline and commercial momentum, including two recent large-scale wins in Germany, we forecast a revenue CAGR of +20% in '25-'28e (vs. +35% in '18-'25). With improving operating leverage, we model adj. EBITDA increasing from DKK 30m in '25 to DKK 81m in '28e and adj. EBIT reaching DKK 36m. Valuing DONKEY against shared mobility peers yields DKK 7.1-8.8/share, while our DCF points to DKK 10.2/share. We set a fair value... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/donkey-republic/Equity-research/2026/3/donkey-republic---a-donkey-worth-riding/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/donkey-republic/Equity-research/2026/3/donkey-republic---a-donkey-worth-riding/ Tue, 24 Mar 2026 05:45:05 GMT DK0061540770 Analys Clear initiatives for efficiency gains presented Focus on add-on sales and M&A to re-accelerate growth Potential upside to cons '27e as 5.5% margin could be reached Clear case for further efficiency gains We attended Coor's CMD held at its HQ in Solna on Thursday. While the financial targets were reiterated, management provided us with more colour on how it will accelerate organic growth and reach the margin target of 5.5% (4.8% in 2025). Most importantly, we think the new CEO Ola Klingenborg continues to give a very solid impression, and we have confidence in how the company is acting to deliver on its efficiency ambitions. One of the issues until now has been a messy organisational structure with several management matrixes and unnecessary layers, leading to unclear responsibilities. This is now being simplified, which clarifies lines of responsibility and accountability. Second, the company's new IT systems are state of the art, but not implemented properly. This means that front-line managers lack the tools and data to plan efficiently. This is now also being fixed, giving front-line managers clear KPIs to follow. Last, the company is changing from scheduling employees on a four-week basis to a four-month basis, which should lead to more efficient planning. According to the CEO, one of the biggest extra costs recently has been paying too much for overtime workers, due to bad planning. In addition to efficiency gains, management also sees cost savings from coordinating procurement. Thus, we are now even more confident that additional margin improvements should come through. New sales mindset to drive more add-on sales In addition to the usual focus on retaining and acquiring new customers, management highlighted a (so far) largely missed opportunity from add-on sales, which is something it believes could be as important as new customer intake to drive better organic growth (4-5% CAGR target). Mr. Klingenborg said that every employee shou... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/coor/Equity-research/2026/3/coor---cmd-added-confidence-in-margin-target/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/coor/Equity-research/2026/3/coor---cmd-added-confidence-in-margin-target/ Fri, 20 Mar 2026 08:30:03 GMT SE0007158829 Analys 300k phones sold annually with +30% GM Same playbook as Doro: add subscriptions Price not disclosed, but financed with cash at hand Aquires Emporia Group for an undisclosed price This morning, Xplora announced that it has agreed on key terms for the acquisition of 100% of the shares in the Emporia Group for an undisclosed consideration. The company is the market leader in senior mobile phones in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, with annual sales of approximately 300,000 devices across Europe. Seem to be a strategic sound acquisition We argue that from a strategic point of view, the acquisition makes sense from two perspectives. First, the deal folles the exact same Playbook as in the Doro acquisition where Xplora can leverage its MVNO licenses and existing infrastructure to introduce its own Cellular subscriptions to Emporia customers and thereby build a base of recurring subscription revenue. Second, Emporia’s strong market position in the DACH region complements Doro’s strong position in UK, France and the Nordics making the combined company a clear European market leader with strong positions in all the major European countries. Emporia has strong market positions in several markets where Xplora does not have an MVNO licence today such as Austria and Italy and we would therefore expect Xplora to add MVNO licenses in some of these markets to fully capitalise on the acquisition, but that has not yet been decided. Price not yet disclosed, but likely earnings accretive Emporia’s device margins are in-line with Xplora’s, but according to our understanding Emporia does not have very high EBITDA margins today, but Xplora expect to lift the profitability over time by adding subcriptions. We also assess that their could be some cost synergies due to overlapping functions with Doro/Xplora. The price is not disclosed, but is financed with cash on hand. Thus, the price has to be less than the NOK 422m that Xplora had in cash ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/3/xplora-technologies---acquires-dachs-leading-senior-mobile-player/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/3/xplora-technologies---acquires-dachs-leading-senior-mobile-player/ Mon, 16 Mar 2026 08:15:02 GMT NO0010895782 Analys Order picking as core growth engine Vusion partnership broadens store digitalisation scope Financial ambitions reiterated Today, StrongPoint held an investor update to provide additional insight into the company. Below, we summarise the main points from the presentation. For the full update, please see here . Order picking as core growth engine StrongPoint positioned in-store order picking as its primary growth driver, supported by rising grocery e-commerce penetration and a shift from centralised CFC models toward store-based fulfillment and quick commerce. The company commented on its ambition to “dominate” in-store picking, underpinned by what it describes as a leading solution globally and a steadily expanding international footprint. Beyond its legacy Swedish base, deployments now include retailers such as Sainsbury’s (UK), Carrefour (Belgium) and Sonae (Portugal), reflecting growing traction across key European markets. We argue that the structural growth in grocery e-commerce - with penetration only at ~15% in the US and 14% in the UK, and still rising - underpins a multi-year demand tailwind for efficient in-store fulfillment. As volumes scale, retailers are increasingly prioritising labour productivity, accuracy and basket quality, areas where StrongPoint’s picking solution is positioned to deliver measurable ROI. At the same time, the significant whitespace in large future markets such as the UK & Ireland (~NOK 2,900bn market size) and Spain (~NOK 1,320bn), where chain coverage and solution penetration remain materially below Nordic levels, providing an attractive set-up for cross-sell of picking, ESL, self-checkout and Vensafe. In our view, the combination of structural e-commerce growth, large underpenetrated addressable markets and a scalable order-picking model lays the foundation for an attractive long-term growth opportunity. Vusion partnership broadens store digitalisation s... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2026/3/strongpoint---investor-update/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2026/3/strongpoint---investor-update/ Thu, 12 Mar 2026 14:30:04 GMT NO0010098247 Analys https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Media/2026/12/Skolon-q4-earnings-call-with-ceo-oliver-lundgren/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Media/2026/12/Skolon-q4-earnings-call-with-ceo-oliver-lundgren/ Mon, 09 Mar 2026 08:00:00 GMT SE0017615784 QPB3K2zm-Dg Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Media/2026/12/SinterCast-fireside-chat-with-deputy-ceo-vitor-anjos/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Media/2026/12/SinterCast-fireside-chat-with-deputy-ceo-vitor-anjos/ Mon, 09 Mar 2026 08:00:00 GMT SE0000950982 MLXmabMecwY Media Focus on sport/wellness, dental and smaller centres Adj. EBITDAaL margin expansion: 11.7% to 12.9% during '26e-'28e ~25% below its historical average on NTM EV/EBITDA Polish capex skewing to margin-accretive growth levers Last Wednesday we visited Medicover’s hospitals and clinics in Warsaw, with discussions centred on Poland as a core growth engine and driver of margin expansion over the next few years. In line with our recent investor-update takeaways, we expect capital allocation to become more aligned with the sales mix, implying a greater focus on Poland, but with a clearer tilt towards margin-accretive investment: 1) sports/wellness (incl. CityFit integration), 2) dental, and 3) smaller, local centres that broaden the network, improve convenience and lift fee-for-service capture. Utilisation and network effects now the playbook Management reiterated that utilisation still “leaves room” for growth without a step-up in capex, with prepaid primary care/occupational health acting as the anchor and a denser layer of smaller sites designed to drive referral flows, improve access and capture more FFS. Wellness is increasingly positioned as part of the same ecosystem, supporting retention and cross-sell as healthcare shifts from medicine towards lifestyle. At group level, capex is expected to stay around 6% of sales, and encouragingly, in '25 ROIC increased to 13% driven by utilisation/efficiency, which we believe will continue over the coming years. No estimate/FVR changes, trading below historical averages We make no changes to estimates or our FVR. We still forecast organic growth of 12-10% for ’26e-’28e and adj. EBITDAaL margins expanding from 11.7% to 12.9% (adj. EBITDA 16.9% to 18.1% for '26e to '28e), driven by mix and operating leverage as these Polish businesses scale. As a reference point, Benefit Systems, a Polish listed fitness peer, delivered an EBITDA margin of ~29% in FY’24, which we view a... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/3/medicover---from-build-out-to-fill-up/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/3/medicover---from-build-out-to-fill-up/ Sun, 08 Mar 2026 18:45:03 GMT SE0009778848 Analys The reshaping continues... ...with a potential IPO of the land bank... ...and large cost-cutting measures Q4 highlights Qben Infra reported Q4 sales of SEK 301m and EBITA of SEK -88m. The sale of Rail was completed in January 2026 and the sale of Kvalitetsbygg was completed in December 2025, but with a vendor note due in 2027. Qben is also looking into a spin-off of the land bank portfolio, which according to the company is valued at NOK 655m. This is a strategic decision that follows Qben's increased focus on the Power segment and market. Adj. EBITA was SEK -74m, corresponding to a -7% adj. EBITA margin. The decrease is mainly due to an adjustment to the PPA analysis (Purchase Price Allocation) made in connection with the acquisition of Team Bygg. Outlook and estimate changes The remaining parts of Qben – Power, Inspect and Construction (Team Bygg) – have good demand. Qben guides for SEK 1.5bn in sales and SEK 111m EBITA (local GAAP) in '26, for an EBITA margin of 7.2% driven by Power, Inspect and cost reductions. Qben also carried out a bond redemption, resulting in higher financial expenses in 2025 but providing greater balance sheet flexibility going forward Looking ahead Qben Infra should be viewed as an investment company. Management states that the transactions will free up resources for redeployment into the faster-growing infrastructure segments (Inspect and Power), which benefit from solid market conditions and a strong order backlog. Following completion of the divestment, the Construction business area will consist solely of residential property development operations in Norway https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qben-infra/Equity-research/2026/3/qben-infra---portfolio-reshaping-continues/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qben-infra/Equity-research/2026/3/qben-infra---portfolio-reshaping-continues/ Mon, 02 Mar 2026 14:45:04 GMT SE0023114012 Analys Q4 sales and EBITDA 7% and EBITDA 23% above driven by Senior Strong growth in senior device revenue +35% y-o-y Expect cons to lift '26 EBITDA by 10-15%, share to follow Adj. EBITDA NOK 101m, +23% vs cons Revenue was NOK 606m, 7% above FactSet cons of NOK 568m (+12% vs. ABGSCe NOK 540m). This was driven by strong growth in the Senior Segment from the shift from 2G and 3G to 4G technology. The gross margin was 51.5% in line with ABGSCe. Opex was NOK 212m, 6% higher than ABGSCe of NOK 200m. This gave an EBITDA of NOK 101m, 23% above cons of NOK 82m (+29% vs. ABGSCe NOK 61m), corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 16.6% vs. 9.4% in Q4'24. Capex was NOK 4m (ABGSCe NOK 15m), resulting in adj. EBITDA-capex of NOK 97m, 54% above ABGSCe of NOK 63m. Strong senior device sales, lower ARPU Total device revenue was NOK 515m, 18% above ABGSCe of NOK 438m. Kids & Youth device sales of NOK 152m was 8% below ABGSCe, and Senior device sales (Doro) of NOK 363m was 33% above ABGSCe. Service revenue was NOK 91m, 11% below ABGSCe of NOK 102m, corresponding to a growth of 18% y-o-y. Number of Kids subscriptions ended at 476k as pre-announced, of which 306k were Connectivity (ABGSCe 301k), 121k were Premium (ABGSCe 113k), 32k were B2B (ABGSCe 38k), and 15k were Service fee (ABGSCe 16k). This gave a monthly ARPU of NOK 66 vs. ABGSCe of NOK 74, which compares to NOK 72 in Q4'24. Expect a strong share outperformance today On the back of today's report we expect consensus to lift estimates driven by strong device sales and gross margin in the senior segment, however, somewhat offset by a lower ARPU and higher opex. All in all we expect cons to lift 2026 EBITDA by 10-15% on the back of today's report. Conclusion: We expect the share to outperform by 10-15% today. Xplora will host a conf call at 08:00 CEST. pagebreak Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier & company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/2/xplora-technologies---record-quarter-driven-by-senior/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/2/xplora-technologies---record-quarter-driven-by-senior/ Fri, 27 Feb 2026 07:15:04 GMT NO0010895782 Analys Strong early efficacy signal Solid cost management Fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share Strong early efficacy signal Isofol today announced that all six currently evaluable RAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer patients in Part 1 of its Phase 1b/2 trial, treated with an optimised arfolitixorin regimen, experienced tumour shrinkage, with reductions in total tumour burden of up to ~50%. Furthermore, half of the patients improved to such a degree that they were removed from the trial for consideration of surgical removal, which is rare in this hard-to-treat population. Additionally, no dose-limiting toxicities have been observed. The reported efficacy results are based on patients treated at the first two dose levels, while the trial has now progressed to the third dose cohort. Although based on a small and early dataset, the findings provide clinical support for Isofol's optimised dosing strategy. We raise the LOA for the risk-weighted scenario B to 22.5% (20%). Solid cost management These encouraging results come following a solid Q4 report in which opex came in better than expected (SEK 13m vs. ABGSCe at SEK 16m). We slightly reduce opex for FY'26-'27e, though the valuation impact is offset by the continued USD headwind. Cash and cash equivalents came in at SEK 127m (SEK 139m at the end of Q3'25). As before, if all TO1 and TO2 warrants are exercised in full, we estimate a cash runway into 2028e. Fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share Our raised LOA for the risk-weighted scenario B to 22.5% (20%) yields SEK 1.8/share (1.6). As before, scenario A (no hierarchical order) assumes clinical failure (LOA 0%) yielding SEK 0.1/share, while scenario C assumes full clinical and commercial success in first-line mCRC (LOA 100%) with a value of SEK 10.5/share. This implies a fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/isofol-medical/Equity-research/2026/2/isofol-medical---from-first-lessons-to-second-execution/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/isofol-medical/Equity-research/2026/2/isofol-medical---from-first-lessons-to-second-execution/ Tue, 24 Feb 2026 19:00:06 GMT SE0009581051 Analys Minor negative estimate revisions due to lower headcount Continued negative net recruitment trend, but increasing margins Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 5.5x Q4 report B3 missed slightly on sales, at SEK 315m (-8% vs. ABGSCe SEK 343m). This was partly supported by Norwegian (Habberstad) sales but held back slightly by FX, subcontractor volumes and fewer consultants. Organically, sales declined by ~14%, affected by weaker market conditions in Sweden and Poland, where both countries had fewer consultants. Adj. EBITA was SEK 17m (+8% vs. ABGSCe SEK 16m). The beat was mainly driven by lower overhead costs as B3 had a ~10% reduction in FTEs y-o-y, showing its strategy towards cost adjustments in the weaker market environment. Estimate changes We cut adj. EBITA by 3%. Our estimates are a mechanical extrapolation of the company's negative sequential net recruitment. B3 has had too many consultants relative to current demand, and some skills have not fully aligned with the needs of customers. The company is therefore now focusing on recruitment in stronger demand areas, which we view as positive from a longer-term perspective. We also see that the market is starting to stabilise in terms of demand, hourly prices and net recruitment. Valuation Based on our revised estimates, the stock is trading at 5.5x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~35% below current peer multiples and ~40% below the historical average for Nordic IT services peers. We see that B3 is in a clear adjustment phase, reducing its costs and aligning headcount to demand. Norway remains an attractive market, with fast-growing segments in defence and security, where B3 is able to have a higher price range. The Norwegian market also has a lower supply of consultants (than e.g. Sweden), which we see as positive for further expansion. We continue to see B3 as well-positioned for '26e-'27e, supported by stabilising market conditions. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2026/2/b3-consulting-group---cost-adjustments-should-lift-margins-in-26e/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2026/2/b3-consulting-group---cost-adjustments-should-lift-margins-in-26e/ Tue, 24 Feb 2026 08:00:04 GMT SE0008347660 Analys Market remains challenging; soft near-term outlook We lower '26e-'27e adj. EBIT by 33% 12x-10x 2026e EV/EBIT adj. Weak Q4, automotive remains the main culprit Ework's Q4 was challenging, with sales -13% y-o-y coupled with adj. EBIT of SEK 36m, down 33% y-o-y. While the latter was 9% ahead of our forecast, this was mainly due to lower costs, with sales volumes remaining poor. As we have repeatedly emphasised, the weaker market is a broad-based phenomenon. However, Ework's high exposure to the automotive sector (19% of gross profit, down from 21% in Q4'24) and an intensified competitive landscape (excess supply of consultants) have further exacerbated the situation. On a positive note, however, Norway has finally started to stabilise, and the gross margin has continued to strengthen. Furthermore, Ework has implemented additional cost-saving measures to improve profitability in 2026. These measures include SEK 18m of cost savings, which will be realised gradually throughout 2026. This includes halving the size of the management team, partly in an attempt to improve sales efforts and move closer to the customer by simplifying the organisation. Given the targeted areas for cost reductions, we welcome the savings. No clear signs of near-term recovery Given Q4 orders -14% y-o-y (vs. -7% y-o-y in Q3), the outlook for 2026 is poor, and we see no clear signs of an imminent recovery. Consequently, we lower '26e-'27e sales forecasts by 16-18%, resulting in a 33% cut to the corresponding adj. EBIT figures. We now expect 2026 sales to decrease by 14% y-o-y, and EPS by -16% y-o-y (vs. Ework's guidance of 2026 EPS down 10-20% y-o-y), despite easy comps. 12x-10x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT adj. The share is trading at 12x-10x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT adj. (vs. peers at 12x-8x), which is largely in line with its 10Y avg. of ~12x. The balance sheet remains in good shape and cost control is decent, but volumes need to improve for profits to return to growth. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2026/2/ework-group---market-conditions-yet-to-improve/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2026/2/ework-group---market-conditions-yet-to-improve/ Mon, 23 Feb 2026 16:15:04 GMT SE0002402701 Analys Weak ACV, but good margins We lower our sales assumptions, but raise '26e-'27e EBIT margins 1.7x EV/sales in '26e (excl. the DPS of SEK 14), 15x EV/EBIT Good cost control, but weak ACV Formpipe's Q4 results were mixed, with a weak ACV figure (the lowest level since Q2'20) overshadowing good cost control and better-than-expected dividends. Most of the company's ACV stems from Microsoft Dynamics and Temenos. Although Microsoft Dynamics saw continued momentum (18 new deals, down from 23 in Q4'24), progress with Temenos remains slow. Given the sequential improvement in Q3 and Temenos' solid Q4 figures, this outcome is somewhat puzzling, but ACV tends to be lumpy. We expect the current level to persist over the coming quarters and then improve. The soft ACV was also exacerbated by churn (likely ~SEK 2m), but given that this was mainly related to legacy products, which currently account for only a small share of the current ARR, we believe the risk of significant future churn is low. On costs, Formpipe introduced cost savings measures in Q1'25, and has now implemented further actions. Given Formpipe's partner-led sales model, we do not expect these measures to significantly impact sales processes; instead, we welcome the news and are optimistic about continued margin expansion. We lower our sales assumptions We lower '26e-'27e sales by 7-9% due to the weak, forward-looking ACV figure. Alongside lower cost assumptions, we raise '26e adj. EBIT by 5%, but cut '27e by 9%. We now expect 5% organic growth in '26e. Extraordinary dividends on the cards Following the recent divestment, the BoD is proposing an extraordinary dividend of SEK 14/share (SEK 760m), which was above our forecast of SEK 11/share. Given the recent contraction in peer multiples and Formpipe's high share of recurring revenue, we think it makes sense to distribute the majority of the funds from the divestment. Adjusting for the dividends, the valuation sits at 1.7x EV/sales in 2026e (or... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2026/2/formpipe---good-margins-but-acv-lags/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2026/2/formpipe---good-margins-but-acv-lags/ Mon, 23 Feb 2026 14:45:04 GMT SE0001338039 Analys Q4: Back to growth and positive EBIT; sales +12% vs. ABGSCe Seasonally softer H1'26e, stronger H2'26e expected We cut '26e-'27e sales by 4-3% and total EBIT by SEK 13m Seasonally softer Q1 ahead, EBIT positive in H2e ES returned to growth in Q4 and delivered a positive EBIT. Sales were SEK 70m (+12% vs. ABGSCe, +33% y-o-y) while EBIT was SEK 1.2m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 2.4m). OEM sales rebounded after a temporary inventory build-up among OEM customers in Q2/Q3. Growth was driven by Residential (+40% y-o-y), while Commercial remained weak (-29% y-o-y). Heading into '26, management guides for a seasonally softer H1'26e but expects a clear pick-up in Q3/Q4e. We view this as reasonable, supported by: 1) improving market conditions, 2) contracted OEM volumes, and 3) continued propane (R290) roll-outs. For Q1e, we expect growth to turn negative again on seasonality, before improving from Q2e on easier comps and building momentum into Q3/Q4e. Estimate changes We cut '26e-'27e sales by 4-3% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 13m, on our lowered volume expectations for H1'26e. We expect EBIT to be negative in H1’26e (seasonality), before improving to positive EBIT in H2’26e. For FY'26e, we now forecast EBIT of SEK -1m, followed by SEK +17m in '27e. Improving market conditions ES appears well-placed to benefit from a broader market recovery. We think the company can recover volumes and re-enter a growth trajectory in '26e, with recent heat-pump market data suggesting conditions are starting to improve (SE+NL+DE HP unit sales up +21% y-o-y in Q4'25), although the timing and pace of the recovery remain uncertain. Moreover, we still expect negative FCF in ’26e, and note a more pressured net cash position. However, we think with improving profitability in '26e and improving market conditions, ES should return to positive FCF in ’27e and strengthen its financial position. ES is currently trading at 6x-3x EV/EBIT '27e-'28e. We lower our fair va... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2026/2/energy-save---back-to-growth-but-softer-h126-expected/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2026/2/energy-save---back-to-growth-but-softer-h126-expected/ Mon, 23 Feb 2026 10:15:03 GMT SE0014428447 Analys Q4 numbers largely in-line with expectations Large move-out in Q1 weighs on outlook 2026e P/CEPS of 14x vs coverage average of 16x Rec. PTP +1% on stronger NOI margin Fastpartner delivered Q4 results with rec. PTP 1% ahead of our forecast, driven by lower operating costs in the quarter, with an NOI margin of 68.9% (1.1pp y-o-y). This was somewhat counteracted by higher central administration costs and net financials. The proposed dividend was SEK 1.15 per share (1.10), compared to our expectations of SEK 1.10 and Infront consensus of SEK 1.20. Underestimated termination weighs on outlook The economic occupancy flat q-o-q at 91.3% (92.4%), and occupancy adjusted for projects was down -0.1pp q-o-q to 91.6% (92.4%). Furthermore, the average paid interest rate decreased by -0.1pp q-o-q to 3.60% at year-end. Despite these supporting data points, the IFPM guidance was down 8.1% q-o-q to SEK 790m NTM. The driver is the Nasdaq premises in Frihamnen being vacated by year-end, where the previous guidance apparently assumed it would be fully let once vacated. According to management, it has ongoing discussions with potential tenants for the premises, some of which it had expected to materialise into signed leases in H2'25, but which have been prolonged. While we already had the termination in our estimates, it seems the lease was larger than we previously expected, leading to negative CEPS revisions of ~9% for '26e-'27e. On the back of this we are 0.6% ahead of the IFPM guidance NTM. 2026e P/CEPS of 13x, coverage average of 16x The share is trading at 2026e P/CEPS of 13x, below the average in our coverage of 15x. On 2025 P/EPRA NRV, the share is trading at 0.49x compared to the average in our coverage of 0.85x. On the back of the larger than expected impact from the Nasdaq termination we expect CEPS growth of -4% in 2026e, and +5% in 2027e, taking the average to +1% vs the average in our coverage of 9%. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/fastpartner/Equity-research/2026/2/fastpartner---outlook-taking-a-hit/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/fastpartner/Equity-research/2026/2/fastpartner---outlook-taking-a-hit/ Mon, 23 Feb 2026 08:15:02 GMT SE0013512506 Analys Solid Q4 but continued cautious order environment Industry bright spot, initiatives delivering Customer caution in P&M, expected to soften up into '26e Q4 results Cavotec reported sales above expectations at EUR 50m (+9% y-o-y, 34% vs ABGSCe). P&M: -5% y-o-y, Industry: +36% y-o-y. Order intake of EUR 48m was in line with estimates. Adj. EBIT was better than expected at EUR 3.9m vs. ABGSCe 0.7m, mainly due to the higher volumes. The highlight of the report was the continued momentum in Industry, with good demand for motorised cable reel systems. This, coupled with recent operational improvements, drove EBITDA margins to 16.1% vs. 6.7% LY. For P&Ms, however, EBITDA margins contracted (11.7% vs 17.6% Q4'24), albeit against tough comps. Management pointed towards increased customer caution towards the end of the year in P&M, which we expect will weigh on Q1 orders. Estimate changes and outlook We raise '26e-27e sales by 4% on stronger-than-expected sales in Q4, but lower total '26e-'27e EBIT by 2-5%, mainly reflecting our lowered margin expectations in P&M. Management reiterated that P&M softness is largely linked to delayed decisions (pushing forward rather than cancellations) and said customer caution is already “softening up” into 2026. In addition, the company is initiating cost-savings in '26, with details to be announced in Q1. A soft year While FY'25 was a soft year for Cavotec, we continue to see attractive long-term potential in shore power and mining electrification. Despite a more cautious order environment, we find it positive that Industry is showing a positive trend. Notably, management also highlighted that Industry momentum is supported by increased field activity and earlier customer involvement/co-development. The share is trading at 19x-11x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT on our post-report estimates vs. the peer median of 17x-13x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/2/cavotec---industry-shines-in-cautious-environment/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/2/cavotec---industry-shines-in-cautious-environment/ Mon, 23 Feb 2026 07:30:02 GMT CH0136071542 Analys Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2m Lower wood costs ahead, but markets still challenging Fair value range of SEK 17-50 Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2m Arctic Paper delivered Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2m, compared to our estimate of PLN 25m. However, note that the reported figure included an energy refund of ~PLN 40m, i.e clean Paper EBIT was PLN -27m vs. our clean estimate of PLN -14m. Weak demand and increased Asian competition have put pressure on prices, which impacted the Paper profitability. An announced 8-10 percent paper price increase aims to restore margins, though H1 2026 demand visibility remains weak. Pulp EBITDA was somewhat softer than expected at PLN -74m vs. our estimate of PLN -70m. Regarding the pulp business, the quarter was characterised by lower pulp prices in USD combined with a stronger SEK, as well as high wood costs. A write-down of finished goods inventory linked to lower pulp prices weighed on earnings by ~SEK -35m. In addition, the annual maintenance shutdown at Vallvik Mill impacted results by ~SEK 70-80m. Lower wood costs ahead, but markets still challenging Pulpwood prices are dropping 25-30% across Scandinavia as high inventories and low demand pressure the market. This should provide some cost relief. Paper markets are helped by 10% supply cuts in '25-'26e, but with (too) low demand the utilisation rate is only 75-80%. We need 3mt more cuts to reach the historical average. The pulp market has had its short-term issues, but Suzano has hiked hardwood prices seven times, or +26%. Rottneros' exposure mainly lies within softwood and CTMP, which has lagged hardwood. However, SCA's recent USD 100/t NBSK price hike is good news for Rottneros, which could also see prices up in '26. Fair value range of SEK 17-50 The company is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.45x, which is ~40% below its historical average. We have applied three valuation methodologies and arrive at a fair value range of SEK 17-50. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2026/2/arctic-paper---still-challenging/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2026/2/arctic-paper---still-challenging/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 17:30:07 GMT PLARTPR00012 Analys Adj. EBITA margin up 1.7pp as sales grew 15% ex. M&A Likely to exceed conservative guidance in '26 Belief that earnings trough is behind us reinforced Q4 results Inission delivered a strong Q4, growing 15% y-o-y ex. M&A and achieving an adjusted EBITA margin of 6.9%, beating our expectations by 4% on orders, 6% on sales and 15% on adj. EBITA. There were restructuring costs of SEK 6.8m in the quarter, mainly in Enedo, but these will, according to management, be gone starting in Q1. The effect of the cost cuts seems very promising given Enedo's adjusted margin of 5.2% in the quarter. Note that both segments' sales now include significant intra-group sales (which are then eliminated at the group level) following the move of the Tunis factory from the Enedo to the Inission segment, partially contributing to their substantial y-o-y increases. There was also a SEK 21m non-cash financial one-off related to the early acquisition of the remaining shares in AXXE, which we have adjusted for. Estimate changes The company guided for sales of SEK 2.3-2.5bn in '26 and an EBITA margin above 6%. During the earnings call, the CEO gave the impression that this guidance is, if anything, conservative, like we expected. We raise '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2-5%, now forecasting sales of SEK 2.42bn with an adj. EBITA margin of 6.8% in '26e. Outlook and valuation Our belief that the trough in Inission's earnings is behind us, which we expressed following the Q3 report , is now reinforced by another strong report. The book-to-bill remains solid, and the growing order book is being converted into sales growth, which in turn is yielding improved profitability, a trend we believe will continue, especially given cost savings coming through in Enedo at the same time as sales growth is set to accelerate, backed up by its strong book-to-bill. The share is now trading at 11x-8x '26e-'28e P/E, compared to peers at 16x-13x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2026/2/inission---set-for-substantial-earnings-growth/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2026/2/inission---set-for-substantial-earnings-growth/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 17:00:08 GMT SE0016275069 Analys FY guidance as expected, but Q1 comments ahead of plan '26e adj. EBITA -5-7% on lower '25 base and FX but growth recovers 15% adj. EBITA growth 2026e, share at 7.4x EV/EBITA Focus on the positive growth outlook The Q4 report was below both our and FactSet consensus estimates on sales and adj. EBITA, but the focus on the day was on the forward-looking guidance. The FY guidance of "2026 EBITA better than 2025" was expected, in our view, as if one assumes no non-recurring items in 2026, reported EBITA would rise by ~10%. BTS has also entered a period when it sees major cost reductions behind it, and the challenging North American market in 2025 is starting to show positive momentum. In the conference call, BTS therefore guided for positive organic growth and EBITA growth in North America already in Q1 and for the FY, which shows that BTS is ahead of plan to return the important region to growth. Adj. EBITA cut by 5-7% The FY guidance has no major impact on our estimates, as we already expected BTS to deliver organic growth and better margins. However, the Q4 miss reduces the starting point somewhat combined with less favourable FX movements, meaning that we reduce '26e and '27e sales and adj. EBITA by 5% and 7%, respectively. Important to dispel AI worries The global management consulting sector has had a tough time on the stock market, partly due to worries about lower demand and higher competition from AI. BTS's share is down 22% in the past 6 months (despite +28% today) and Accenture is down -25% the last month. The positive growth outlook from BTS is therefore appreciated and the share is trading at 7.4x 2026e EV/EBITA on our updated estimates. In 2026, we estimate 6% organic growth, 15% adj. EBITA growth and 27% reported EBITA growth (BTS does not adjust for one-offs when it provides its FY outlook). Given the net cash position, growth guidance and current valuation, we argue that buybacks would be welcome. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Equity-research/2026/2/bts-group---ahead-of-plan-on-growth-recovery/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Equity-research/2026/2/bts-group---ahead-of-plan-on-growth-recovery/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 16:15:08 GMT SE0000805426 Analys https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Media/2026/02/bts-group-q4-earnings-call-with-president-and-ceo-jessica-skon/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Media/2026/02/bts-group-q4-earnings-call-with-president-and-ceo-jessica-skon/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 13:00:00 GMT SE0000805426 UxbATpe7ZAk Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Media/2026/02/formpipe-q4-earnings-call-with-interim-ceo-and-cfo-sophie-reinius/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Media/2026/02/formpipe-q4-earnings-call-with-interim-ceo-and-cfo-sophie-reinius/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 13:00:00 GMT SE0001338039 8cU7U6KEHx0 Media Sales +12% vs. ABGSCe, EBIT SEK 1.2m (vs. 2.4m) Recovery in OEM business after weaker Q2/Q3, sales up +40% Inventory levels down but cash flow soft, FCF of SEK -3.8m Q4 results Q4 sales were SEK 70m (+33% y-o-y and +12% vs. ABGSCe 63m). Residential continues to be the sales driver, with sales of SEK 67m (vs. 48m LY), while Commercial remains weak (SEK 3.1m, -42% q-o-q and -29% y-o-y). OEM sales increased to SEK 52m (SEK 37m LY), following the temporary inventory build-up in Q2/Q3. Despite the higher than expected sales, gross margins contracted to 33% (44% LY, ABGSCe 35%) and EBIT came in at SEK 1.2m (vs. ABGSCe 2.4m, -5m LY). Moreover, although we find it positive that inventory levels were down, FCF was on the weaker side at SEK -3.8m (4.7m LY). The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 23m (54m LY). Estimate changes and outlook On numbers alone, '26e-'27e sales is impacted by +3% and EBIT by SEK -1.3m vs. FY'26e estimate of SEK 7m). On outlook, management indicates that volumes are likely to be lower in the opening quarters of '26 vs. Q4'25, partly due to seasonal variations. We find this likely given that Q1 tends to be a seasonally weaker quarter. However, the company expects a stronger second half, particularly Q4, supporting an improved financial position and progress toward break-even for FY'26. Valuation Prior to today's report, the share was down -15% L3M and is on our pre-report estimates and is trading at 4x-1x '26e-'27e P/E on our pre-report estimates. The company will host a presentation of the Q4 results at 10:00. Quarterly outcome vs. expectations Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2026/2/energy-save---oem-sales-up-softer-start-to-26-expected/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2026/2/energy-save---oem-sales-up-softer-start-to-26-expected/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 08:15:27 GMT SE0014428447 Analys +7% organic growth y-o-y, -1% vs. ABGSCe 13% adj. EBIT margin (vs. ABGSCe 6%) Cons to lower sales assumptions, but raise margins Q4 results Sales SEK 60m (-1% vs ABGSC 61m), adj. EBIT 8m (+112% vs ABGSC 4m). Cash flow weak, mainly due to significant NRIs that amounted to SEK 43m, of which SEK 25m relating to the recent divestment transaction and SEK 18m to personnel changes (mainly in UK). Encouragingly, the BoD is proposing a dividend of SEK 760m, corresponding to SEK 14/share following the recent divestment. This was above our expected SEK 600m. Q4 thoughts This was the second quarter with Formpipe's Public segment deconsolidated from the P&L, given the recent sale. The remaining business, Lasernet, saw organic sales increase by 7% y-o-y, which was slightly below our forecast of +9%. Meanwhile, costs were lower, resulting in an adj. EBIT margin of 13%, which was above our forecasted margin of 6%. This is the second consecutive quarter of better-than-expected profitability, and we expect Formpipe's increased focus on costs, including today's layoffs, to continue driving margin improvements. However, SaaS ACV was weak at only SEK 4m (ABGSCe SEK 11m), down from SEK 11m in Q4'24. This was a soft number given the solid momentum in Q3; however, given the recent management changes and the process of public divestment, the outcome is not entirely unexpected. Nevertheless, the weaker ACV figure will impact growth rates over the next few quarters. Estimate changes and valuation Formpipe's share is -11% YTD and is trading at 1.9x EV/sales on our unrevised 2026 estimates. It is a messy report, but our preliminary view is that consensus will lower both sales and cost assumptions for 2026, ultimately resulting in slightly negative adjustments to '26e EBIT. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2026/2/formpipe---weaker-acv-but-higher-dividends/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2026/2/formpipe---weaker-acv-but-higher-dividends/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 08:15:07 GMT SE0001338039 Analys Sales -9% but adj. EBITA +7% vs. consensus Margin improvement supported by cost efforts and Habberstad Consensus EBITA estimates likely down by mid single-digits Q4'25 report B3 reported Q4'25 sales of SEK 315m (-8% vs. ABGSCe 343m, -9% vs. FactSet consensus), representing an organic decline of 14%. The decline was primarily driven by fewer B3 consultants and subcontractors. Two, slightly offsetting factors were higher hourly prices and utilisation rates. Adj. EBITA came in at SEK 17m (+8% vs. ABGSCe 16m, +7% vs. consensus), representing a margin of 5.4%, which was better than we expected, but it was also cost-driven. More specifically, it was due to lower overhead costs in Sweden. Thoughts and outlook The market environment remains soft, with negative net recruitment and cautious customer behaviour. However, B3 has adjusted its cost base relatively meaningfully as avg. FTEs declined ~10% y-o-y to 899 (1,005). While volumes remain somewhat soft in Sweden, the operations in Poland and Norway should help support earnings growth going forward. Consensus estimate revisions On our unrevised estimates, B3 is trading at 5x '26e EV/EBITA. Mechanically, the impact on consensus EBITA estimates should be within a negative mid single-digit range when considering the reduced number of consultants and the somewhat lower overhead costs that offset the negative impact a bit. A presentation by the company will be hosted at 9.00 CET ( link ). Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, Company data. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2026/2/b3-consulting-group---margin-beat-on-cost-cuts/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2026/2/b3-consulting-group---margin-beat-on-cost-cuts/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 08:00:36 GMT SE0008347660 Analys Sales -1% vs cons, adj. EBITA -14%, but North America guided to grow in Q1e 2026 guidance: "Better EBITA than in 2025" (cons +12%) but base will come down Estimates likely cut 5-10%, share to underperform somewhat Q4 details Sales SEK 710m (-1% vs ABG 718m, -1% vs cons 718m), adj. EBITA 96m (-13% vs ABG 111m, -14% vs cons 112m), adj. EBITA margin 12.1% (ABG 15.4%, cons 15.6%). Adj. EBITA -29% y-o-y (ABG -18%, cons -17%). Organic growth -5% (ABG -2%, cons -2%). DPS SEK 4.40 (24% vs ABG 3.55, -2% vs cons 4.49). North America behind miss in Q4 Still challenging in North America (EBITA -37% vs cons) while Ok performance in Europe and Other markets. The North American turnaround is progressing well however. Guides for "higher EBITA 2026 vs 2025" on group level as expected (cons +12%). Q-o-q EBITA decline in North America marks the end in Q4 and will grow organically and improve profit y-o-y already in Q1 given actions taken, according to BTS. AI innovation across the firm is benefitting BTS in three ways: 1) a more competitive portfolio with bookings from the AI bot technology at USD 5m in 2025 (5x vs 2024), 2) new services spanning AI adoption and workflow with AI related services of USD 14m in 2025 (+690% vs 2024), and 3) internal simplifications with another SEK 24m cost reductions realised in 2026. All of these drivers are behind the outlook guidance to drive EBITA growth again. Estimates down 5-10% We expect consensus to reduce 2026 EBITA by 5-10% due to the Q4 miss and lower base although guidance was as expected, and share should underperform similarly today, although it has traded weak into numbers (-28% YTD). Conf call CET 9.30. Deviation Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Equity-research/2026/2/bts-group---north-america-behind-q4-miss/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Equity-research/2026/2/bts-group---north-america-behind-q4-miss/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 08:00:07 GMT SE0000805426 Analys We expect nearly 40% organic growth... ...and gross margin expansion in '26e Reiterate fair value range of SEK 30-45 Higher platform usage drove growth The Q4'25 report was better than we had expected. Sales increased by ~75% y-o-y, mainly driven by higher platform usage among users. In constant currency terms, the y-o-y growth was 86%. A large contributor to the growth was increased platform usage, i.e. users consuming more digital learning materials (revenue from partners). This meant that ARPPU also grew sequentially, but that the gross margin (less capitalised costs) of 26% took a small hit. This was also partly due to contract signings seemingly being tilted toward the end of the year. Raising EBITDA by 4-2% for '26e-'27e We raise '26e-'27e sales by 4-3% after the report. We also raise our EBITDA estimates by 4-2% for the same period. This reflects the continued user growth, slightly higher ARPPU and continued investments in the business. However, it also reflects a somewhat lower gross margin than we had previously forecast because users seem to increasingly be using third-party apps through Skolon's platform. Implied valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at '26e-'27e 7-5x EV/Gross profit (GP less capitalised work). We continue to see clear scalability in the model, as the platform supports additional users in existing geographies without significant cost increases. Even though EBITDA may be volatile from time to time due to growth investments and the timing of contract signings, the earnings power potential is significant over longer time horizons. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2026/2/skolon---q425-momentum-to-also-pay-off-in-h126/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2026/2/skolon---q425-momentum-to-also-pay-off-in-h126/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 07:45:07 GMT SE0017615784 Analys An EBIT increase to SEK 6m (3m) in Q4'25 We raise EBIT by 2-3% for '26e-'27e Well positioned for a market recovery in 2026 Q4'25 report Ogusen reported Q4'25 sales of SEK 115m, up 1% y-o-y, ending nine consecutive quarters of declining revenue. The consulting segment grew 2% y-o-y, to SEK 106m, reflecting gradually improving demand. Recruitment sales (~8% of total sales LTM) declined 16% y-o-y, to SEK 9m, as the market remains weak and slightly volatile. Overall, competition continues to be tough, and pricing pressure remains high, limiting the margin expansion potential. Demand is somewhat stable but dependent on winning new assignments, and pricing continues to vary by client. Total FTEs amounted to 372, up q-o-q and flat y-o-y. We expect the headcount to remain broadly stable in the near term. EBIT improved to SEK 6m, with a 5.2% margin, compared to SEK 3m last year, supported by stable volumes. The company proposed a dividend of SEK 1.50 for a payout ratio of ~100%, which is in line with the five-year average. EBIT up by 2-3% for '26e-'27e With signs of stabilisation and easier comparables in 26'e, we increase our estimates slightly. We raise sales by 2% and EBIT by 2-3% for '26e-'27e. We expect a gradual market improvement, although margin expansion is likely to remain limited in the near team due to continued price sensitivity. As demand gradually improves and activity levels normalise, we expect revenue momentum to continue building through '26. Trading at 10-8x EV/EBIT for '26e-'27e Ogunsen is trading at 10-8x EV/EBIT for '26e-'27e. 2026 should benefit from easier comps and gradual improvement in activity. The consulting segment continues to show relative strength, positioning the company well in the early phase of a recovery cycle. As recruitment activity normalises, this could provide additional upside to estimates. Overall, we see improving fundamentals supporting a stronger earnings profile over the coming years. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ogunsen/Equity-research/2026/2/ogunsen---easier-comps-await-in-26e-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ogunsen/Equity-research/2026/2/ogunsen---easier-comps-await-in-26e-/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 07:30:07 GMT SE0008406151 Analys Orders +4%, sales +6%, adj. EBITA +15% vs. ABGSCe Guides for 2.3-2.5bn sales and 6% margin in '26: in line Strong report with recovery materialising as expected Q4 results Orders were down 9% y-o-y and 4% above our estimate. Sales grew 24% y-o-y and were 6% above our estimate. With a margin of 6.9%, 0.5pp above our estimate, EBITA adj. was 15% above our estimate. EBITA included non-recurring items with a negative margin impact of 1.0pp, pertaining mainly to restructuring costs in Enedo. Lease adj. FCF was 17m, bringing the R12m figure to 43m, i.e. 142% of net income. The strong results were driven by y-o-y improvements in both segments. There is a conference call at 09:00 CET: webcast Estimate changes The Q4 numbers in isolation imply EBITA adj. comes up 5%. The company guided for sales of SEK 2.3-2.5bn with an EBITA margin >6% in '26, which can be compared to our estimates of 2.39bn with a margin of 6.8%. We consider this in line with our expectations as the margin target should likely be read as a lower limit. Company valuation Over the past three months, the share has returned +12%, compared to the Nordic EMS peer median of +7% and the +11% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 15x-9.0x '25e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 13x-8.9x and peers at 22x-13x. Outcome vs. estimates Q4'25 Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2026/2/inission---recovery-continues-to-materialise/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2026/2/inission---recovery-continues-to-materialise/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 07:00:06 GMT SE0016275069 Analys Sales +34% vs EBIT adj. EUR 3.9m vs. ABGSCe 0.7m Orders in line vs. ABGSCe, several large orders in the quarter Market still cautious, cost saving initiatives in 2026 Q4 results Cavotec reported strong Q4 results with a beat on all line items. Order intake came in at EUR 48m (in line vs. ABGSCe 48m). Sales came in at EUR 50m (+34% vs. ABGSCe 37m), +9% y-o-y (+11% org.). EBIT adj. was EUR 3.9m (vs. ABGSCe 0.70m), for a margin of +8% (ABGSCe 1.9%). EBIT has been adjusted for a one-off of EUR 0.24m related to the relocation of Cavotec's registered office from Switzerland to Sweden. Industry showed improved margins, with an EBITDA margin of 16% (vs. ABGSCe 4.3%), thanks to the recently implemented change programmes. While, Ports & Maritime reported weaker EBITDA margins y-o-y (12% vs. 18% LY). Cash flow was strong in the quarter and FCF lease adj. came in at EUR 4.4m (vs. ABGSCe -1.4m). Estimates and outlook On numbers alone, '25e-'27e sales change by +8%, and EBIT adj. changes by +EUR 3m. While Q4 was a strong quarter, management says the outlook is uncertain and customers remain cautious, so the company has decided to initiate cost savings heading into 2026. Valuation The share has returned -15% L3M (vs. peer median +17% and OMXSALLS +11%), and is currently trading at 39x-19x '26e-'27e P/E on our pre-report estimates vs. the peer median of 21x-18x. The company is hosting a conference call at 10:00 CET. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/2/cavotec---strong-q4-but-cautious-outlook/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/2/cavotec---strong-q4-but-cautious-outlook/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 06:45:06 GMT CH0136071542 Analys Q4: +27% sales growth, 1.5% EBITDA margin '26e-'27e EBITDA up 2-3% Continues to show improvements 2025 was an important year Tempest continues to deliver improvements, with Q4 sales 12% above ABGSCe but EBITDA SEK 1.2m below. Guarding grew sales by 35% and EBITDA from SEK 1m to SEK 8m. A solid improvement, where the contracts signed in late 2024 are starting to show in the numbers. It is still far from historical levels, and we think more can be done on efficiency. Risk Solutions declined SEK 1m on top line but improved its EBITDA from loss-making in Q4'24 to SEK 2m profit in Q4'25, with solid results in the UK and profitable results in Denmark. Looking ahead, management pointed to good demand with the need for reliable deliveries, flexibility and long-term thinking rather than short-term needs, and that price is not always the decisive factor. Pricing has been a factor in the security space, and we think that Tempest, with help from the shifting focus in the market, can raise its margins by having price discipline and being selective on bidding. '26e sales up 8% and EBITDA up 2% We raise '26e sales by 8% on the good performance and momentum in Guarding. We expect the performance to continue as Tempest maintains its core business focus and continues its efficiency improvements, while Denmark and the UK are delivering better results. Q4 is a seasonally weaker quarter, but we expect the progress to continue. Focus on core operations We believe the company has taken important steps throughout the year, with the divestment of the US and the turnaround in Denmark. There are further efficiencies to be gained from the newly signed contracts in Guarding, as profitability typically increases gradually after the initial start-up period. This is because the additional costs associated with extra hiring decrease, planning and efficiency improve and Tempest can sell additional services that improve profitability. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2026/2/tempest-security---guarding-gains-ground/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2026/2/tempest-security---guarding-gains-ground/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 05:45:08 GMT SE0010469221 Analys Strong Q4, with EBIT 82% ahead of our forecast We lift '26e EBIT by 17% on positive sales revisions Ovzon-3 still not at full capacity: 19x 2026e EV/EBIT Strong Q4, both in terms of sales and margins Ovzon ended 2025 on a strong note, with Q4 sales +159% y-o-y, driven by recent order announcements. This was 18% above our estimate, primarily due to higher terminal sales (coming in at SEK 100m vs our forecast of SEK 65m), but also due to higher SATCOM sales. Typically, this sales mix would have a negative impact on margins, but the gross margin in Q4 was surprisingly strong at 58%, which we believe was potentially due to favourable FX and price adjustments. With an incremental EBIT margin of 54%, Ovzon demonstrated the high operational leverage in its business model, driving EBIT 83% ahead of our forecast. FCF was also good, driven by pre-payments. In our view, this shift in payment terms signals strength and underlines robust demand and Ovzon's strong market position. Positive estimate revisions The recent increase in order activity meant that the Q4 backlog of SEK 1bn remained robust. This provides high visibility for estimates, with ~800m of our SEK 1,068m sales forecast for 2026 being covered by the current backlog. Throughout the year, we expect Ovzon to announce more orders, including those related to Ovzon-3. We expect Ovzon-3 will reach ~50% utilisation in Q2e (driven by an order from a NATO customer), and ~70% in Q4e. Also, we highlight that 2026 will be another strong year in terms of terminals, which is positive for the future as it is a good indicator for SATCOM demand. All in all, we lift '26e adj. EBIT by 17% on positive sales revisions. Demand is supporting more satellite projects The stock is up 34% YTD, trading at 19x '26e EV/EBIT on our new estimates. Given the recent momentum, we continue to see upside risks to forecasts, and look forward towards getting more details around potentially new satellite projects (which current de... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/2/ovzon---operating-leverage-coming-through/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/2/ovzon---operating-leverage-coming-through/ Thu, 19 Feb 2026 16:15:06 GMT SE0010948711 Analys Sales +SEK 17m, EBITDA -SEK 1.2m vs. ABGSCe '26e-'27e EBITDA estimates likely flat Share to focus on the volume and earnings improvements Q4 details Tempest delivered a Q4 report with both sales and EBITDA growth. Sales came in at SEK 155m (12%% vs. ABGSCe), 27% y-o-y, driven by Guarding, and partly offset by Risk Solutions. EBITDA grew SEK 8m y-o-y to SEK 2.4m (-SEK 1.2m, vs. ABGSCe), for a margin of 1.5% (ABGSCe 2.6%, -4.4% Q4'24) driven by both Guarding and Risk Solutions. Looking at y-o-y development, we see positive progress in Guarding, where the new contracts signed in late 2024 are now starting to show in the numbers; the initial costs have been absorbed and volumes have increased. There is a SEK 0.5m one-off cost due to restructuring. Estimate changes and outlook Looking ahead, management is not providing a formal outlook. However, they acknowledge that focus remains to increase the internal efficiency, cost control after a period of streamlining the organisation. We consider Tempest's positive internal development to be signs that it is taking important steps in the right direction. We expect estimates for '26e-'27e adj. EBITDA to stay relatively flat. Final thoughts A report in the right direction report with sales and profitability growth. The share has underperformed the broader market into numbers (-13% YTD vs. OMXSGI +5%). We believe that the market will recognise the volume and earnings improvements resulting from Tempest's hard internal work. pagebreak Outcome vs. expectations Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2026/2/tempest-security---solid-steps-forward/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2026/2/tempest-security---solid-steps-forward/ Thu, 19 Feb 2026 08:30:05 GMT SE0010469221 Analys Sales +1% vs. ABGSCe (-13% y-o-y), adj. EBIT +9% vs. ABGSCe Has initiated cost measures, aiming to save SEK 18m (5% of opex) We expect cons to cut '26e adj. EBIT ~25% Q4 results Q4 sales were SEK 3,639m (+1% vs. ABGSCe 3,609m), -13% y-o-y. Gross profit was SEK 150m (0% vs. ABGSCe SEK 150m), -10% y-o-y, while adj. EBIT was SEK 36m (+9% vs. ABGSCe 33m), down 33% y-o-y. Note that we have adjusted for a SEK 20m amortisation of immaterial assets (capitalised development costs). The gross margin improved well in y-o-y terms, but took a step back sequentially after a period of significant improvements. Q4 orders declined 14% y-o-y. Q4 thoughts The Nordic consultancy market has recently been challenging, which continues to affect demand for Ework's services. In particular, we have observed weakness in the automotive industry, a situation that has been exacerbated recently by Volvo Car's layoffs. As this is a significant end market for Ework, the impact is substantial. Alongside the results, Ework announced that it has initiated a transformation programme to increase operational efficiency, including changes to the management framework. This will drive annual cost savings of ~SEK 18m, with an impact that will build gradually throughout 2026, and corresponds to ~5% of opex. In light of the recent profitability trend, this is welcome news and will support margins going forward. Even so, the outlook is lacklustre, with Ework noting a weak market, and that it has entered 2026 with lower volumes and a weak trend in orders. Consequently, it expects 2026 EPS down 10-20% versus 2025. Estimate changes Following the Q4 report, we expect consensus to cut '26e adj. EBIT estimates by ~25% due to lower sales assumptions, slightly offset by the cost out measures. There will be a conference call at 09.30 CET, link. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2026/2/ework-group---soft-orders-taking-actions-on-costs/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2026/2/ework-group---soft-orders-taking-actions-on-costs/ Thu, 19 Feb 2026 08:15:06 GMT SE0002402701 Analys Q4 sales 20% higher than ABGSCe SEK 41m Lower gross margin likely due to higher share of partner revenues Likely slightly positive consensus estimate revisions Q4'25 report Skolon delivered net sales of SEK 50m (20% vs ABGSCe 41m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth of 76% (26pp vs ABGSCe 50%), higher than expected. The gross margin decreased to 26% (-5pp vs ABGSCe 31%), likely impacted a higher share of partner sales. EBITDA amounted to SEK -1m (1m vs ABGSCe -2m), ARPPU came in at SEK 191 (6% vs ABGSCe 180), and the number of paying users amounted to SEK 1,031k (-1% vs ABGSCe 1,044k). Thoughts and outlook The report was better than expected, and Skolon continues to grow strongly, with increasing traction internationally. ARPPU continues to improve, demonstrating the company's ability to upsell, notably through higher partner revenues (as indicated by the lower gross margin in the quarter). At the same time, Skolon has made investments across Europe, which are reflected in lower profitability. While these investments have a near-term impact on profitability, they are in line with the strategy, which we believe will strengthen the company’s long-term position. Consensus estimate revisions and valuation The share is down nearly 20% YTD and is trading at 7-5x '26e-'27e EV/Gross profit on our unrevised estimates. Following the report, we believe that consensus will raise sales estimates by low single-digits. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2026/2/skolon---continues-to-execute-well/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2026/2/skolon---continues-to-execute-well/ Thu, 19 Feb 2026 08:00:07 GMT SE0017615784 Analys Sales +159% y-o-y on recent orders; +18%/+16% vs. ABG/cons EBIT was +83% vs. ABG and +82% vs. cons Expect cons to raise '26e EBIT 5-10%, share to outperform today Q4 results Sales SEK 277m (18% vs ABGSCe 234m and 16% vs cons 239m), adj. EBIT 74m (83% vs ABG 41m and 82% vs cons 41m). As expected, NWC trends remained favourable, resulting in FCF of SEK 133m (vs. SEK 52m in Q4'24). This resulted in a NIBD of SEK 252m, down from 642m in Q4'24. The order book stood at a robust SEK 1.0bn by the end of Q4, driven by recent orders, including a terminal order from FMV and a milestone contract with a NATO customer (60% of which comprised terminals and 40% SATCOM). Q4 thoughts After quiet period in terms of order announcements, this improved markedly in Q4. Furthermore, sales continued to improve, driven by deliveries of recent orders. Here, SATCOM revenue was slightly ahead of our forecast (SEK 177m vs. ABGSCe SEK 169m), but the main sales beat came from higher terminal sales, amounting to SEK 100m (ABGSCe SEK 65m) and accounting for 36% of Q4 revenue. Although gross margins declined sequentially amid mix effects and the ramp-up of expanded third-party capacity (related to the SEK 1bn FMV order from mid-25), this was expected, and the Q4 level of 58% was better than our forecast 54%. In terms of outlook, Ovzon highlights a growing demand, particularly in Europe. Furthermore, it says that it is entering 2026 with a strong momentum, underpinned by the robust backlog that provides multi-year revenue visibility. Estimate changes At a first glance, we expect consensus to raise '26e EBIT by 5-10%, mainly driven by higher gross margin assumptions. All in all, another strong report, and we expect the share to outperform the market today. The stock is trading at 20x '26e EV/EBIT on our unrevised estimates. There is a conference call 10.00 CET (link) . Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, Modular Finance for cons https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/2/ovzon---better-than-expected-across-the-line/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/2/ovzon---better-than-expected-across-the-line/ Thu, 19 Feb 2026 07:45:05 GMT SE0010948711 Analys Q4 a bump in the road but we remain optimistic on outlook Estimates down given a lower AUM base 2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 3-5x with easy comps Q4 softer than expected Catella's Q4 results were below both ABGSC and FactSet consensus expectations, with EBIT coming in at SEK 11m (63m) compared to ABGSCe of SEK 101m. The results were negatively impacted by a SEK 151m impairment of KöTower, one of Catella's Principal Investments, following an updated property value assessment. The underlying performance within Investment Management and Corporate Finance stood out positively in the quarter. As such, we see the negative share price reaction of -14% as unjustifiably harsh. We remain optimistic about 2026 given the macro backdrop, with variable fees within Investment Management expected to pick up as transaction activity gradually increases. This should drive both improved margins and bottom-line earnings growth in the coming quarters. Lower AUM base cuts our 2026-27 forecasts As AUM in Q4 came in 3% below our forecast, we have cut our AUM estimates, which lowers our earnings forecasts within Investment Management. In sum, our group EBIT estimates are reduced by 14% for 2026 and 7% for 2027 following the report. Despite lower estimates, we continue to forecast strong earnings growth in the coming years, with the help of market activity picking up. 2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 3-5x with dividend yield of 4-8% Despite Q4 falling short of our expectations, we think the company has many attractive fundamentals, including an impressive track record within Investment Management. The balance sheet remains strong, with a cash position of SEK 1.6bn (~85% of market cap), providing Catella with the necessary resources should the right opportunities arise. The comps are easy, and we believe the transaction activity outlook is promising. When applying our latest revisions, Catella is trading at an EV/EBIT of 3-5x for 2026e-27e and a dividend yield of 4-8%. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2026/2/catella---a-promising-2026-outlook/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2026/2/catella---a-promising-2026-outlook/ Wed, 18 Feb 2026 10:45:07 GMT SE0000188518 Analys Good underlying growth, investing for the future weighs on margin DTC could accelerate in 2026 The share is trading at 7x-6x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA Investing for the future Embellence Group's Q4 report showed strength for the Nordic parts of the business, and Artscape performed well considering the tough comparable growth figure, while Cole & Son and Wall & Decó faced softer demand. It has taken action to turn the trend - Cole & Son's managing director has been replaced and the German sales agents for Wall & Decó have been as well. Overall, the organic growth was 0.5%, reduced by ~4pp from the tough Artscape comp. The underlying momentum thus seems healthy. Gross margins improved by 120bp, but Embellence Group also invested more in, e.g., platform upgrades and hospitality sales to drive growth for a net -60bp margin growth y-o-y. More numbers on DTC - looks promising Embellence Group's strategic investments continue; in Q4 it upgraded its Cole & Son website after the successful upgrades of its Artscape and Pappelina websites. While the DTC share is still small, 40% y-o-y growth for Artscape+Pappelina in the DTC part of the business is a promising signal as Embellence Group prepares to upgrade its Boråstapeter website. In 2025 as a whole, Embellence Group's DTC business grew 18% organically y-o-y, and website upgrades did not start until the summer. Boråstapeter is ~2x larger than Artscape and Pappelina combined - so this upgrade is likely to have a larger impact on growth than the previous ones. The share is trading at 7x-6x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA The Embellence share is trading at 7x-6x our '26e-'27e EV/EBITA. We leave our fair value range unchanged at SEK 36-43, which corresponds to 8x-9x NTM EV/EBITA vs. its L3Y trading range of 7x-8x NTM. The negative estimate revisions relate to FX. While the rough capex guidance for 2026 was higher than our previous estimate to ramp up upgrades in the Borås factory, ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2026/2/embellence-group---largest-dtc-platform-to-be-upgraded-in-h1/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2026/2/embellence-group---largest-dtc-platform-to-be-upgraded-in-h1/ Wed, 18 Feb 2026 07:15:06 GMT SE0013888831 Analys Solid earnings momentum in Paving services Divestment brings net cash position and dividend M&A and more internal improvements to come First quarter with Water & Segment out of the numbers In Q4'25, Infrea sold its Water & Sewage segment. We included the segment in the comparable numbers for '24, while it is shown as an asset held for sale in the Q4'25 numbers. Infrea delivered a Q4 with sales growth in both remaining segments: +5% y-o-y in Land & Construction (L&C) and +4% Paving Services (PS). Organic sales growth was +2.5% y-o-y (0% Q3'25), while total sales were -4% due to the divestment. EBITA improved in PS by SEK 8m, to SEK 25m, driven by more good results in Asfaltsgruppen while EBITA in L&C declined SEK 3m, to SEK 11m, due to a SEK 8m reservation. Cash flow was weak at ~75% of adj. EBITA due to customer discussions, that is estimated by Infrea to be solved in '26, yielding a net cash position of ~SEK 3m, which enables a DPS of SEK 0.65 (SEK 0.5 '24) Varied performance in the group but overall positive We raise '26e-'27e EBITA by 8-11% on continued progress in PS, where we argue that Duo Asphalt will have a better '26 than '25, and in L&C now that Mikaels Grävtjäns is off the books. Infrea continues to focus on internal efficiency and margins over volumes. We think improving margins should support SEK 63m EBITA in '26e and a 13% CAGR '24-'27e. The net cash position makes us more confident that Infrea could add growth through potential M&A. Margins to improve and FCF to stabilise We believe that Infrea is well-positioned to grow organically and improve its margins given its exposure to underlying demand and to public customers (~55%), as well as support from M&A (13% sales CAGR in '21-'24). For '25-'28e, we expect Infrea to deliver profitability growth and FCF above peers but with slightly lower margins and sales growth. The share is trading at 5-4x adj. EBITA on '26e-'27e with a 31-12% lea... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2026/2/infrea---progress-on-most-fronts-ma-now-more-likely/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2026/2/infrea---progress-on-most-fronts-ma-now-more-likely/ Wed, 18 Feb 2026 06:15:06 GMT SE0010600106 Analys EEs down 16% to 2.6m, SEK 4.6m installations, EBIT 7% above us Opex, market and installation tailwinds drive 21% EPS growth in '26 Aims to reach the 6m EE milestone in '29 and the 8m milestone in '31 Q4 results The report was largely in line with our expectations, but lower Q4 opex put EBIT 7% above our estimate. Engine equivalents came in at 2.6m, down 16% y-o-y on 57% and 14% declines in North American commercial and passenger vehicle production, respectively (-0.53m EEs), while European commercial vehicle production grew 20% (+0.15m EEs). Quarterly equipment sales of SEK 4.6m brought the yearly total to SEK 9.8m, thus concluding another year with above-average installation sales. Estimate changes The company highlighted proactive cost reductions of SEK 3.8m in '25, and forecasts another SEK 5m in '26 due to the retirement of its Technical Director on 31 Dec 2025 and the upcoming retirement of CEO Steve Dawson at the AGM in May. Both replacements were employed throughout '25. This is a shade better than we had estimated, and we therefore raise '26e-'27e EBIT by 2-3%. Outlook and valuation Management sees signs of market recovery in '26, with European commercial vehicle order books up 20% y-o-y in Q4 and freight demand improving in North America, while developments concerning tariffs and emissions regulations have stabilised. With several high-volume production programmes set to start in the coming three years following record-high installation sales, SinterCast's growth should outpace the market. Furthermore, management now expects to reach the 6m EE milestone in '29 and the 8m milestone in '31 (monthly peak annualised production). Other noteworthy news in the quarter was that Ford cancelled the electric version of its F-150 pick-up, and Ram decided not to proceed with its launch of an electric version, further diminishing the threat from electric alternatives in SinterCast's second most important sector after commercial vehicles. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2026/2/sintercast---an-expected-conclusion-to-a-challenging-year/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2026/2/sintercast---an-expected-conclusion-to-a-challenging-year/ Tue, 17 Feb 2026 16:00:11 GMT SE0000950982 Analys Weaker sales and maintained opex behind estimate cuts We see relatively unchanged FCF '26e (SEK 46m vs 48m in '25) Half of market cap in net cash; 5x EV/EBIT & 4x EV/FCF '26e We cut '26e-'27e EPS by 51-27% Q4 was below our estimates, partly driven by FX movements since our last update, but also weaker organic sales. Part of the organic decline was due to Sherlock, which slowed after encouraging signs in Q3 and early Q4, leading to -9% sales in USD terms y-o-y vs -7% in Q3. This in combination with higher opex y-o-y, partly from higher market investments to drive a growth stabilisation, caused the adj. EBIT miss (SEK 2m vs FactSet cons 12m). Management said that the investments to stabilise sales will continue in H1'26. The lack of new games right now, FX, and the slightly weaker trend for Sherlock make us cut 2026e–2027e sales by 14%. With opex held relatively unchanged, to invest in both the current portfolio and the pipeline, the lower sales fall through to the bottom line, leading to 2026e-2027e EPS cuts of 51-27%. Organic growth to remain negative in H1'26, but improve in H2 We expect the organic growth (in USD terms) to improve slightly but remain negative in H1'26, improve in H2'26, and turn positive in 2027, supported by new games (management said it has one promising title in the final scaling test phase) and third-party games being released on G5 Store. As sales stabilise, we think G5 has the potential to get back to 8-9% margins in 2027-2028 (SEK 69-73m EBIT). New fair value range SEK 50-120 (90-180) The FCF remained positive in 2025, at SEK 48m, significantly higher than the reported EBIT of SEK 28m. We forecast FCF of SEK 46m in 2026, and that the net cash position including long-term investments will reach SEK 270m compared to the current market cap of SEK 460m. The share is therefore trading at 5x EV/EBIT and 4x EV/FCF on our new 2026 estimates. Our fair value range is cut to SEK 50-120 (90-180) on our lower estimates.... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Equity-research/2026/2/g5-entertainment---stabilisation-expected-from-h226/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Equity-research/2026/2/g5-entertainment---stabilisation-expected-from-h226/ Tue, 17 Feb 2026 14:00:09 GMT SE0001824004 Analys Sales 0%, adj. EBITA 0% vs. ABGSCe, 2.5% org. growth '26e-'27e adj. EBITA estimates likely flat Share to focus on DPS and solid improvements Q4 details Infrea delivered a solid report with organic sales +2.5% y-o-y, and a high margin driven by paving services (again) delivering a good result. In Q4'25, Infrea sold the Water & Sewage segment. We included the segment in the comparable numbers for '24, while it is shown as an asset held for sale in the Q4'25 numbers. Sales came in at SEK 612m (0% vs. ABGSCe), -4% y-o-y of which +2.5% organic (0% Q3'25), driven by Land & Construction, partly offset by Paving services. Adj. EBITA grew SEK 5m y-o-y to SEK 39m (0% vs. ABGSCe), for a margin of 6.3% (ABGSCe 6.3%, 5.4% Q4'24) driven by good result in Asfaltsgruppen and despite a SEK 8m reservations regarding ongoing customer discussions. We adjust EBITA for a SEK 5.1m costs associated with the divestment of W&S. DPS came in at SEK 0.65 vs ABGSCe at SEK 0.5 (SEK 0.5 '24). Estimate changes and outlook Looking ahead, management is not providing a formal outlook. However, we know the market is tough in some regions. Nevertheless, we consider Infrea's solid margin and positive internal development to be signs that it is navigating the market well. We expect estimates for '26e-'27e adj. EBITA to be flat. Final thoughts A solid report with sales and adj. EBITA in line with our expectations. The share has outperformed the broader market into numbers and is trading at 10-6x EBITA '2 5e-'27e. We believe that the market will focus on the continued positive margin development resulting from Infrea's hard internal work. Outcome vs. expectations Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2026/2/infrea---solid-improvements-and-higher-dividend/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2026/2/infrea---solid-improvements-and-higher-dividend/ Tue, 17 Feb 2026 08:30:08 GMT SE0010600106 Analys Sales +1%, adj. EBIT +7% vs. ABGSCe Sets 8m EE milestone for '31, supported by new programmes Sees market recovery in '26, forecasts above market growth Q4 results Sales fell 26% y-o-y and were 1% above our estimate. Annualised engine equivalents produced were 2.6m, falling 16% y-o-y, and were thereby 4% below our estimate, primarily due to North American commercial vehicle production being down 57% y-o-y, while Europe was up 20%. Sampling cups sold decreased 12% y-o-y, and were 25% above our estimate. With a margin of 22.0%, 1.1pp above our estimate, EBIT adj. was 7% above our estimate, driven by lower opex. The board proposed a DPS of SEK 3.0 (7.0). Estimate changes The Q4 numbers in isolation imply EBIT adj. comes up 1%. The company expects cost reductions of SEK 5m in '26 as a result of the retirement of the company's Technical Director and CEO (we have SG&A declining by 3m y-o-y). With several new high-volume programmes set to start production in the coming years, the company now targets to reach the 8m EE milestone (peak monthly annualised production) in '31. The company also sees signs that a market recovery will begin in '26, and forecasts above market growth. Company valuation Over the past three months, the share has returned -9%, compared to the +6% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 26x-17x '25e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 23x-15x. Outcome vs. estimates Q4'25 Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2026/2/sintercast---sees-growth-outpacing-market-recovery/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2026/2/sintercast---sees-growth-outpacing-market-recovery/ Tue, 17 Feb 2026 08:00:08 GMT SE0000950982 Analys Net sales SEK 195m, +1% vs ABGSCe, -1% vs Factset cons. EBITA SEK 26m, vs ABGSCe SEK 25m, cons. SEK 26m Keeps upgrading e-commerce platforms Q4 in brief: in line, external manufacturing grew strongest Overall, we believe Embellence Group's Q4 report is in line with expectations. Net sales of SEK 195m was +1% vs ABGSCe, -1% vs Factset cons. and corresponded to organic growth of 1%. Growth was driven by the Boråstapeter and External manufacturing segments, which grew 10% and 21% respectively. We had expected Boråstapeter to grow 4% and External manufacturing to grow 5%. Artscape's -25% growth should be seen in light of an extreme comparable growth figure, boosted by a large order from one of its largest customers, and was expected. Gross margins were 61.8%, +90bp y-o-y, which coupled with a higher opex ratio owing to initiatives to drive future growth resulted in a 13.2% EBITA margin, -60bp y-o-y. EBITA of SEK 26m was just below ABGSCe SEK 25m but in line with cons. SEK 26m, and corresponded to y-o-y growth of -7%. Embellence Group's board has proposed a SEK 1.5 DPS (In line with ABGSCe and vs 1.25 last year), corresponding to 51% of '25 EPS. Outlook: keeps building foundations for growth In Q3, Embellence Group commented that it saw positive signals from the upgrading of its website platforms. During Q4, it upgraded its Cole & Son website, says it sees strong growth from the already upgraded platforms (we interpret commentary as being of 40% DTC growth for Pappelina and Artscape) and expects to upgrade the Boråstapeter platform during H1'26. Boråstapeter is the largest brand in the Group, which suggests that this could be the most impactful upgrade. The CEO notes that recent organisational changes means the Group is now stable enough to resume looking for M&A targets. Q4 moves our '25e EBITA by +1% Using yesterday's closing price and unrevised estimates, Embellence Group is trading at 7x-6x our '26e-'27e EV/EBITA vs... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2026/2/embellence-group---q4-platform-upgrades-continue/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2026/2/embellence-group---q4-platform-upgrades-continue/ Tue, 17 Feb 2026 07:30:06 GMT SE0013888831 Analys Q4 EBIT of SEK 11m, way below expectations driven by a SEK 151 impairment Underlying Corporate Finance and IM better than expected in Q4 Negative consensus revisions to follow, stock down today Q4 EBIT SEK 11m, vs. ABGSC at 101m & consensus at 76m The Q4’25 EBIT fell y-o-y and came in at SEK 11m (63m), which was 89% below ABGSC and 86% below FactSet consensus. The quarter included some items affecting comparability, including the divestment of Valuation France which contributed SEK 51m to EBIT. This divestment was pre-announced and included in our forecast. Another item affecting comparability was a SEK 151m impairment of an updated property value assessment of KöTower, one of Catella's Principal investments. This was not pre-announced. If adjusting for the impairment, EBITDA was 40% above consensus and 55% above ABGSC in Q4, which we see as positive. Looking at underlying development, both the Corporate Finance and Investment Management segment delivered stronger than expected results in Q4. Catella proposes a DPS of SEK 0.9 (3% yield), which was below ABGSC expectation, which forecasted DPS of SEK 1.7, and also below consensus which expected SEK 1.34. AUM of SEK 155bn in Q4, 2% below consensus forecast Net sales in Q4 came in at SEK 465m (979m), which was 5% above ABGSC's forecast but 6% below consensus. Reported EBITDA came in at SEK 36m, 70% below ABGSC and 73% below FactSet consensus. The large deviation is stemming from the SEK 151m impairment of an updated property value assessment of KöTower. The AUM came in at SEK 155.3bn, down 3% q-o-q (SEK -5bn), which was 3% below ABGSC forecast and 2% below consensus. The decrease compared to the end of the third quarter, was primarily driven by FX headwinds (SEK 3bn) and negative net outflow of SEK 1bn. We believe the lower-than-expected AUM base in Q4 will trigger negative consensus earnings revisions for 2026-27e. Negative consensus revisions to follow, stock down today... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2026/2/catella---impairment-burdens-q4/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2026/2/catella---impairment-burdens-q4/ Tue, 17 Feb 2026 07:15:06 GMT SE0000188518 Analys EBIT SEK 2m vs FactSet consensus 12m Sales declined 9% in USD terms, and DPS cut to SEK 2 (8) We think estimates could come down 15-20%; CC at 8:00 CET Q4 results Sales were SEK 221m (-11% vs ABGSCe 249m and -9% vs cons 244m), -21% y-o-y whereof -9% in USD terms. On a sequential basis, sales in USD declined 2% q-o-q. EBIT adjusted for FX effects was 2m (-88% vs ABGSCe 15m and -84% vs cons 12m). Net profit -2m (-114% vs ABGSCe 15m and -120% vs cons 11m). FCF -27m (20m last year). The weaker profitability was partly explained by higher user acquisition costs, as communicated before, related to stabilisation attempts for Sherlock and Hidden City as well as testing for Twilight Land. However, after Q4, Twilight Land has been put in harvest mode, meaning the company will not try to scale it any more. But the company has another title that has been progressing well which management is optimistic about. The game is now in the final stages of scalability testing. Outlook and preliminary estimate changes Management expect marketing to remain at the higher end of its target (17-22% of sales) as it tries to stabilise the core portfolio and likely starts scaling the new game which it stated will enter early soft launch in Q1. Because the company is in an investment phase currently, while sales are falling both organically and through FX, we think consensus could cut 2026-2027 EBIT by 15-20%. Final thoughts The report was on the weak side. The dividend was also cut to SEK 2 per share (8) due to the ongoing investment phase and lower earnings (the company maintains a payout ratio of ~50%). On the other hand, G5 Store continues to grow and could soon start having a meaningful impact on the group as the company starts onboarding external game developers to the platform. 23% of sales were generated through G5 Store in Q4 (16%). The share has held up relatively well recently (-9% YTD) compared to Mobile peers (MTG -23%, SF -30%) and is trading at 4x EV/EBIT an... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Equity-research/2026/2/g5-entertainment---weaker-margins-as-it-tries-to-stabilise-sales/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Equity-research/2026/2/g5-entertainment---weaker-margins-as-it-tries-to-stabilise-sales/ Tue, 17 Feb 2026 07:00:06 GMT SE0001824004 Analys Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 25m Lower wood costs ahead, but markets still soft Fair value range of SEK 17-50 Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 25m We expect Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 25m, up from PLN 16m in Q3. However, note that this figure includes a n energy refund of ~PLN 40m, i.e clean Paper EBIT is likely PLN -14m. We have observed soft Q4 volumes, and we factor in a 5% reduction in realised prices to compensate for lower demand, implying a q-o-q price effect of ~PLN -29m. We have cut our estimates for '25e-'26e sharply, solely driven by Rottneros' profit warning which showed Q4 results far below expectations with EBITDA of ~SEK -180m, putting EBIT at ~SEK -217m (~PLN -84m). For Arctic Paper, this puts Q4 clean EBIT at ~PLN -100m (reported ~PLN -60). For '26e, we lower our Pulp EBITDA to PLN 11m, down from PLN 42m, in line with our current MTM EBITDA for Rottneros. While lower pulpwood costs will help, the weak FX will offset some of the effects and be a drag in '26e. Our Paper estimates (i.e. Arctic Paper) are up ~3%, given the recent announced price hike. Lower wood costs ahead, but markets still soft Pulpwood prices are dropping 25-30% across Scandinavia as high inventories and low demand pressure the market. This should provide some cost relief. Paper markets are helped by 10% supply cuts in '25-'26e, but with (too) low demand the utilisation rate is only 75-80%. We need 3mt more cuts to reach the historical average. The pulp market has had its short-term issues, but Suzano has hiked hardwood prices seven times, or +26%. Rottneros' exposure mainly lies within softwood and CTMP, which has lagged hardwood. However, SCA's recent USD 100/t NBSK price hike is good news for Rottneros, which could also see prices up in '26. Fair value range of SEK 17-50 The company is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.45x, which is ~40% below its historical average. We have applied three valuation methodologies and arrive at a fair value range... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2026/2/arctic-paper---an-arctic-breeze-from-the-swedes/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2026/2/arctic-paper---an-arctic-breeze-from-the-swedes/ Mon, 16 Feb 2026 18:15:06 GMT PLARTPR00012 Analys Q4e: Sales of EUR 37m (45m), EBIT of EUR 0.7m (3.6m) Expect continued profitability improvements in Industry Trading at '26e-'27e EV/EBIT of 19x-11x Q4 expectations Cavotec is facing tough comps as Q4'24 was a particularly strong quarter. We expect Q4 sales of EUR 37m (45m), -18% y-o-y, +3.5% q-o-q. For P&M we estimate sales of EUR 21m (30m) and for Industry, sales of EUR 16m (16m). During the quarter, Cavotec announced several orders, including a EUR 9.35m shore power order and a EUR 2m MoorMaster system in Denmark, together accounting for ~9% of the Q3'25 order backlog. Alongside this, the company announced a motorised cable reed order in Morocco (undisclosed value, delivery expected mid-'26). We estimate Q4 order intake at ~EUR 48m (vs. EUR 61.5m in Q4'24). On EBIT, we estimate EUR 0.7m (3.6m), for a margin of 1.9% (7.9%). We expect Industry to continue to improve its profitability (we estimate an EBITDA margin of 14.5% vs. 6.7% LY) due to cost savings and efficiency measures implemented in 2024. Estimate changes and outlook We lower ’26e-’27e sales by 2% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by EUR 3m ahead of the Q4 report. We think customer uncertainty will remain in the short term, impacting sales. We expect P&M to be the key swing factor in '26e, with management highlighting in Q3 that most of the larger P&M orders won in '25 will not be delivered until '26. Valuation While we think FY'25 will likely be a softer year compared to FY'24, we continue to find the longer-term potential in shore power and industrial electrification appealing, supported by regulatory tailwinds and structural megatrends. The share is trading at 19x-11x EV/EBIT in '26e-'27e vs. peers at 14x-13x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/2/cavotec---expect-a-gradual-recovery-but-caution-remains/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/2/cavotec---expect-a-gradual-recovery-but-caution-remains/ Mon, 16 Feb 2026 16:45:06 GMT CH0136071542 Analys Q4 EBIT in line with pre-announcement (SEK -313m) Impairments of SEK 238m, portfolio size down to 15.8 GW (25.3 GW) Completes sale of 127 MW Roccasecca BESS project Q4 in line with pre-announcement Eolus reported Q4 EBIT of SEK -313m (SEK -75m excl. impairments), in line with the pre-announced figures. The quarter was dominated by impairments of SEK 238m and a sharp reduction in the project portfolio to 15.8 GW from 25.3 GW, mainly driven by offshore wind (-7.8 GW). The sale of the Fågelås, Dållebo and Boarp onshore wind projects (88 MW) had a limited earnings impact overall, which we view as a consequence of a weaker transaction market. Estimate changes and outlook Due to Eolus’ recent impairments and the updated project portfolio, we have revised our portfolio assumptions, resulting in EBIT revisions of SEK +52m for '26e (including updated estimates for the Roccasecca and Fageråsen sales) and SEK -39m for '27e. We now have 1,247 MW in our forecasts. Heading into 2026, management describes market conditions as hesitant despite solid underlying fundamentals; BESS activity is progressing at a good pace, while wind transactions are taking longer. We expect this to weigh on near-term wind project margins. Roccasecca and Fageråsen Although ’25 was a soft year for Eolus, two near-term positives stand out heading into Q1’26. On Friday 13 January, Eolus announced that it has completed the sale of the 127 MW Roccasecca BESS project, including transfer of the SPV and total cash proceeds (incl. cost reimbursements) of ~USD 66.9m. Revenues will be recognised in full in Q1’26; we estimate invested capex of ~SEK 200m and a project margin of ~SEK 400m. In addition, the customer’s final investment decision for the 189 MW Fageråsen onshore wind project triggers an instalment payment to Eolus in Q1’26. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Equity-research/2026/2/eolus---impairments-weighed-on-q4-but-q1-improves/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Equity-research/2026/2/eolus---impairments-weighed-on-q4-but-q1-improves/ Mon, 16 Feb 2026 08:15:04 GMT SE0007075056 Analys Substantial margin-driven EBITA beat We raise EBITA by 6-5% for '26e-'27e Balance sheet soon supportive of dividends, in our view A margin-driven earnings beat Eltel reported Q4 net sales of EUR 239m (+6% vs. ABGSCe) and EBITA of EUR 8.3m (+31% vs. ABGSCe EUR 6.3m), for an EBITA margin of 3.5% (ABGSCe 3.0%). The earnings beat was driven by Sweden, where the company notes broad-based improvements across several end-markets. On a sequential basis, net debt came down significantly, which combined with higher earnings resulted in ND/EBITDA falling to 3.0x (3.9x in Q3), or 1.9x excluding lease liabilities (2.7x in Q3). In fact, given the recent margin improvements and subsequent strengthening of the balance sheet, we assume Eltel will pay out dividends starting from the fiscal year 2026 (i.e. first payment in 2027). The fact that the balance sheet will soon support dividends is a testament to the company now being in a much better spot compared to just a few years ago. EBITA raised by 6-5% for '26e-'27e With higher operating margins driving a significant EBITA beat compared to our estimates, we take a more optimistic view on margin expansion ahead as well. This leads to us raising our '26e-'27e EBITA by 6-5%. Company expects to reach margin target in 12-18 months One highlight of the report, from our perspective, was that Eltel specified a concrete timeline for when it expects to reach its 5% EBITA margin target – 12-18 months. Although there have been material profitability improvements in recent years, the target still implies a significant rise from the r12m EBITA margin of 2.5%, and while we are optimistic on the margin trajectory, we remain somewhat more cautious than the target (we have 3.4-4.5% for '26e-'28e). Finally, the share is now trading at 10-8x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, according to our estimates. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eltel/Equity-research/2026/2/eltel---margin-beat-and-strengthened-balance-sheet/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eltel/Equity-research/2026/2/eltel---margin-beat-and-strengthened-balance-sheet/ Mon, 16 Feb 2026 08:00:05 GMT SE0006509949 Analys Q4 sales of SEK 18m (ABGSCe 16m), EBIT -3.3m (ABGSCe -10m) Momentum in SOFC coatings for data centre/power generation Expect near-term revenues to be Service-driven Q4 results Impact Coatings reported sales of SEK 18m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 16m) and better-than-expected EBIT of SEK -3.3m (vs. ABGSCe SEK -10m). Although there were no machine deliveries in the quarter (in line with estimates), we find it positive that Coating Services showed momentum and grew +47% y-o-y. Since Q4'24, the company has implemented efficiency measures to reduce costs, and Q4 saw personnel expenses decline to SEK 13m from SEK 19m in Q4'24. Estimate changes and outlook We raise our '26e-'27e sales by 1-5% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 6m the back of the Q4 report. Management reiterated that the market recovery is expected to be gradual, with Services providing a stable base until System orders start to pick up. Waiting for System orders While the improved services trajectory is encouraging, a recovery in System orders (we estimate two deliveries for '26e) remains key to reducing longer-term liquidity risk. Due to market uncertainty, however, we stress the downside risk to estimates. Management argues that the lack of new machine orders in China reflects insufficient market growth to trigger new installations (~10–20% market growth '24 vs. '25), and is therefore shifting focus toward the SOFC opportunity, which it expects to grow materially faster, driven by data-centre power generation. Near-term, the opportunity is more Services-led, but management expects System sales to follow as volumes scale and customers integrate stamping and coating in-house; Ceres’ licence base (Doosan/Delta/Weichai) supports management’s view of a sizeable multi-year opportunity. The company is currently trading at 1.3x-1.2x '26e-'27e EV/sales. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2026/2/impact-coatings---services-leading-the-way-into-2026/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2026/2/impact-coatings---services-leading-the-way-into-2026/ Mon, 16 Feb 2026 06:45:03 GMT SE0001279142 Analys Solid end to the year AY'25/26e guidance seems fine Fair value range of NOK 18-25 Solid end to the year Group revenue was NOK 272m, 5% above our estimate of NOK 260m and up 14% y-o-y. This resulted in full-year sales of NOK 508m, up 12.5% y-o-y. Adj. EBIT was NOK 53.2m (19.6% margin), +18% vs. our estimate of NOK 45m. Sonans delivered adj. EBIT of NOK 17.6m, which was above our NOK 15m, driven by a very strong 17% margin. ONH once again reported strong profitability, with adj. EBIT of NOK 43.5m compared to our NOK 39m. Regarding ONH, Lumi commented on strong growth momentum and noted that the institutional accreditation process is ongoing, with a decision expected before the end of April 2026. A positive outcome would strengthen ONH’s strategic positioning and likely provide further financial upside. We raise our 2026e EBIT by 2%, driven by tighter cost control, stronger-than-expected margins and demonstrated operating leverage. AY'25/26e guidance seems fine The outlook for the 2025/26 academic year appears intact, with performance tracking in line with previously communicated guidance. That said, the underlying development differs somewhat between the two segments. ONH is trending towards the upper end of its guided revenue range of NOK 323-326m, and we estimate NOK 325m. Sonans, by contrast, is developing towards the lower end of its NOK 198-202m range, and we therefore assume NOK 198m. On profitability, both segments are progressing towards their respective margin targets of ~15% for Sonans and 25-30% for ONH. We pencil in adjusted EBIT of NOK 100m for the AY'25/26e, corresponding to a group margin of ~19%. Fair value range of NOK 18-25 A valuation using peer multiples points to NOK 18-25/sh. Lumi is trading at '26e/'27e EV/EBIT of ~12.4x/9.9x and a P/E of ~17.4x/13.4x while enjoying strong earnings growth and relatively high barriers to entry. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/lumi-gruppen/Equity-research/2026/2/lumi-gruppen---textbook-delivery/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/lumi-gruppen/Equity-research/2026/2/lumi-gruppen---textbook-delivery/ Mon, 16 Feb 2026 06:30:03 GMT NO0010927288 Analys Strong international growth offset by the Nordics Short-term Pricer headwind Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share A mixed Q4 StrongPoint delivered a mixed Q4: revenues were broadly flat y-o-y at NOK 342m (+1%), with strong international growth (UK & Ireland +36%, Spain +58%, Baltics +14%) offset by a 16% decline in the Nordics due to fewer ESL rollouts versus last year. In addition, the move from Pricer to Vusion ESL in H2 2025 temporarily reduced volumes in the Nordics. Reported EBITDA fell to NOK -5m (vs. NOK 5m in Q4'24) driven largely by NOK 7m in non-recurring M&A advisory costs; adjusted EBITDA was ~NOK 2m. For '25, revenue grew 4%, to NOK 1.36bn, and EBITDA improved to NOK 26m (NOK 33m excluding the Q4 one-offs). Short-term Pricer headwind Pricer-related recurring revenue (NOK 52m in 2025) will run off through 2026, creating a near-term headwind as it takes time to rebuild a similar recurring base with Vusion. Offsetting this, Vusion has already generated meaningful installation activity: NOK 90m revenue in '25 and NOK 19m gross profit, vs. ~NOK 26m gross profit from the Pricer recurring base. Management argues the move improves long-term positioning by expanding the portfolio beyond ESLs (e.g., next gen. batteryless ESL, shelf edge camera, etc.). StrongPoint and Vusion can also promote each other’s solutions to new customers and collaborate to integrate and enhance StrongPoint’s Order Picking with Vusion’s solutions. Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share The past few years have not been smooth sailing, as project delays and long decision cycles have hampered momentum. However, StrongPoint has delivered improved EBITDA and recurring revenue in '25, pointing to strengthening core fundamentals and better operational traction. Over the medium to long term, we expect grocery retailers to increase technology investments. Our DCF indicates an equity value of ~NOK 600m, and we see a fair value range of NOK 8... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2026/2/strongpoint---a-mixed-bag/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2026/2/strongpoint---a-mixed-bag/ Mon, 16 Feb 2026 06:15:03 GMT NO0010098247 Analys Softer Q4 numbers due to FX and tough comps We raise EBITDA by 6% for '27e Trading at 13-9x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, ~30% below peers Quarter held back by FX and tough comps Clavister reported Q4'25 sales of SEK 61m, for 3% y-o-y growth, held back by FX headwinds, postponed deliveries and tough comps. Last year's quarter benefited from lifecycle upgrades following the change of business model (from 2021). This created a temporary uplift, and as the effects now roll up we expect growth to normalise and better reflect the underlying business. We expect the postponed defence deliveries to reverse in H1'26e, supporting an additional ~SEK 10m in sales. ARR increased by 5% y-o-y, indicating continued momentum in the civilian business, particularly in the Nordics and Germany. Adj. EBITDA was SEK 11m, a margin of 18%, impacted by mix effects. Raising EBITDA for 2027e We cut EBITDA by 3% for 2026e, as we expect slightly higher personnel costs related to the Norwegian defence contract. This is natural given project ramp up and potential hiring needs. Over time, we expect improved operating leverage, with personnel costs continuing declining as a percentage of sales. Looking further out, we raise 2027e EBITDA by 6%, which is supported by improved cost efficiency and scaling effects from both defence and civilian operations. Valuation and thoughts going forward Clavister is trading at 13-9x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, ~30% below its peers average. With a stronger balance sheet and a larger order backlog, the company enters 2026 from a clearly improved position. We believe Clavister has good scaling potential, which is supported by large defence contracts and recurring revenues from the civilian segment. We also expect the company to benefit from previous tax losses, meaning no-to-limited tax payments in the coming years. The focus is now on executions, meaning converting backlog into revenues while maintaining margin discipline. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2026/2/clavister---entering-2026-with-improved-fundamentals/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2026/2/clavister---entering-2026-with-improved-fundamentals/ Sun, 15 Feb 2026 21:00:13 GMT SE0005308558 Analys We expect 50% organic growth in Q4e Q4 mix is likely to be somewhat soft FVR of SEK 30-45 reiterated Q4 expectations We expect Q4 sales of SEK 41m, which corresponds to an organic growth rate of 50%. Note that the high growth rate we expect is primarily due to an easy comp from Q4'24. We expect an additional 50k paying users compared to Q3, and anticipate ARPPU to increase to SEK 180. We have lowered our Q4e gross margin (less capitalised work) to 31%, because we expect a meaningful share of the revenue associated with the 50k new paying users in Q4 to phase more revenue into Q1'26 than Q4'25. This means that the revenue mix will be somewhat more tilted toward partner revenues (i.e. low gross margin). Therefore, we expect an EBITDA margin of -4% in Q4e. FX-driven estimate changes We make only small adjustments to our estimates, as we cut '26e-'27e sales by 1% due to FX. This translates into our EBITDA estimates coming down 6-3% for the same period. Note that EBITDA is still at a low level in absolute terms. As a reminder, these types of businesses typically reinvest a significant portion of the earnings into the opex base to facilitate growth. From time to time, this growth can be lumpy, and therefore earnings growth can also be lumpy. Implied valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at '26e-'27e EV/Gross profit of 7-5x. This is slightly above peers in '27e. However, we expect Skolon to grow >3x faster than the average peer. We maintain our fair value range of SEK 30-45. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2026/2/skolon---easy-growth-comp-in-q4/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2026/2/skolon---easy-growth-comp-in-q4/ Sun, 15 Feb 2026 17:30:01 GMT SE0017615784 Analys Strong US performance more than offsets German weakness EBIT up by 5-9% for '26e-'27e, driven by US and overhead costs Trading at 12-8x 26e-'27e EV/EBIT (peers at 15-14x) US strength lifts total performance Ferronordic's Q4 sales were SEK 1,211m (+12% vs ABGSCe) with adj. EBIT of SEK 54m (+108% vs. ABGSCe 26m) for a margin of 4.5% (ABGSCe 2.4%). The sales and earnings beats were driven by a strong performance in the US, with Germany still struggling. Net debt declined by 18% y-o-y, but only 2% q-o-q due to tied-up working capital weighing on Q4 cash flow. However, due to the earnings improvement, ND/EBITDA dropped to 3.4x (3.9x in Q3'25), and we expect the company to reach its leverage target (<3.0x ND/EBITDA) in the current year. EBIT raised by 5-9% for '26e-'27e Q4 saw Ferronordic return to the well-known balancing act of a strong US vs. a soft German market. We raise US EBIT by 7-6% in '26-'27e on our extrapolation of Ferronordic's strong operational performance in the market alongside supportive macro data, such as the recent US ISM spiking to 52.6 in January. For Germany, we assume lower opex due to the company's extra savings measures in the quarter, but overall we lower EBIT estimates for the segment, arguing the extra cost cuts indicate the market will likely remain sluggish. We also lower overhead costs somewhat, and at the group-level, this amounts to positive EBIT revisions of 5-9% for '26e-'27e. Trading at 12-8x EV/EBIT vs. peers at 15-14x We welcome the return to M&A after the quarter closed (although technically an asset acquisition). The near-term M&A potential remains constrained by the still high leverage, but the balance sheet is strengthening. We consider the strong US performance to be encouraging, while market headwinds in Germany remain a problem. The share is up 21% YTD, compared with +5% for OMXSGI, and it is currently trading at 12-8x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT, which can be compared to our distributor peer group at... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Equity-research/2026/2/ferronordic---year-concludes-on-a-solid-note/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Equity-research/2026/2/ferronordic---year-concludes-on-a-solid-note/ Sun, 15 Feb 2026 16:30:02 GMT SE0005468717 Analys Sweden and Norway improving, but Finland still weak Estimates unchanged as somewhat better results offset Finland Cold start to the year and weakened USD bode well for Q1 Q4 results After nine quarters of organically contracting sales, Alligo finally returned to organic growth in Q4. Sweden and Norway both progressed nicely, Sweden mainly on sales and Norway on the margin; Finland, however, saw an unsatisfactory margin in the quarter, as the market in the region remains tougher than the others, although part of this underperformance was due to investments in a new production facility for the company's defence customer Patria, which is growing rapidly. The seasonally strong cash flow was even better than we expected, bringing down the group's leverage to a more palatable 2.6x lease adj. ND/EBITDA (3.0x in Q3). All-in-all, we consider the results as slightly positive. Estimate changes The report also stated that two larger Finnish customer relationships are set to end. The impact of this was clarified during the earnings call, when management explained that these relationships were being ended by Alligo, as they did not offer satisfactory profitability, and that they constituted around 1% of group sales. The net effect of this and the somewhat better than expected result is that we leave '26e-'27e adj. EBITA unchanged. Outlook and valuation The continued weak performance in Finland also brought about the appointment of a new country manager, someone whom the CEO has known for 17 years and considers very likely to be able to improve the region's performance. On the group level, we think the cold weather seen since January coupled with the weakened USD, which will incrementally benefit the gross margin, means Alligo is well positioned for continued operational momentum in Q1. On our updated estimates, the share is now trading at 14-10x '26e-'28e P/E. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2026/2/alligo---the-return-to-organic-growth/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2026/2/alligo---the-return-to-organic-growth/ Fri, 13 Feb 2026 17:30:08 GMT SE0009922305 Analys Sales up 3% y-o-y, held back by soft volumes and tough comps We keep sales flat, and slightly raise opex Trading at 9-8x on '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, below its historical median Recruiting and consulting costs weighing on EBIT Generic reported an in-line Q4, with sales of SEK 49m, up 3% y-o-y, affected by softer volumes and tough comps. The gross margin came in at 44%, up from last year, indicating that SaaS continues to grow. Adj. EBIT decreased 4% y-o-y, primarily due to recruiting and consulting costs. It is also worth noting that Q4'24 was exceptionally strong. Looking at the full year, Generic grew adj. EBIT by 22% y-o-y. The DPS was proposed at SEK 1.75 (1.60 last year), and we note it has increased over the last 5 years, signalling earnings stability. We raise opex by ~3%, but keep our view on scaling potential We expect more top-line growth in 2026, as volumes should pick up, and as Generic continues to penetrate more customer groups. We raise operating costs slightly for '26e-'27e but keep our view of it reaching 22-23% EBIT margins, as we see potential for further scaling. Volumes should pick up in 2026 Generic is currently trading at 9-8x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~35% below its historical median. The messaging market has been impacted by pricing sensitivity, as customers in, e.g., logistics, have cut costs. However, churn remains low, and we believe volumes should pick up in 2026. DOCS continues to grow within municipalities, and Generic is starting to reposition the product as a document transfer product. This targets other customer segments, such as private healthcare companies and Swedish regions, and over time, this should scale and increase margins. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/generic/Equity-research/2026/2/generic---the-gross-margin-story-remains-strong/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/generic/Equity-research/2026/2/generic---the-gross-margin-story-remains-strong/ Fri, 13 Feb 2026 16:00:08 GMT SE0001790791 Analys Q4 sales -16% vs. ABGSCe, miss in GC&MP and FW NW&FT showing positive signs; we see a return to growth in '26e We cut '26e-'27e sales by 7% on weaker-than-expected report Q4 results OrganoClick reported Q4 sales of SEK 18m (-16% vs. ABGSCe) and EBIT adj. of SEK -11m (vs. ABGSCe at -5.5m). The sales miss was mostly driven by GC&MP and FW. In GC&MP, sales were particularly weak in December across most segments. Looking ahead, the company’s decision to exit an unprofitable BIOkleen private label agreement implies a ~SEK -4.5m sales headwind for GC&MP (mainly Q1), but with a limited EBIT impact. FW was soft following German distributor inventory replenishment in Q3 and persistent weak demand in Sweden. We expect Sweden to remain sluggish in the near-term but remain positive on the sales development Germany in '26e, which we expect will help FW to reach stabilised levels in FY'26e. The improving NW&FT sales (+17% y-o-y) were a clear positive in Q4, and were partly driven by a volume shift from Q3, but also by slightly improved end-markets. Estimate changes and outlook Given the weaker-than-expected Q4 figures, we lower ’26e-’27e sales by 7% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 9m. We still view the setup into 2026 as improving, supported by NW&FT momentum (we estimate 14% growth in '26e) and the SEK 20m savings programme (almost full effect from Jan-26). Management also expects NW&FT sales from new customers that are planning to launch wipes and food pads. Valuation OrganoClick is currently trading at 2.2x-2.1x '26e-'27e EV/Sales vs. peers at 4.6x-1.5x. Although Q4 was weaker than expected, we think the company is set up to reach profitability in '27e with the help of improving end-markets and cost savings in place. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Equity-research/2026/2/organoclick---soft-end-to-2025-better-setup-into-2026/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Equity-research/2026/2/organoclick---soft-end-to-2025-better-setup-into-2026/ Fri, 13 Feb 2026 14:00:07 GMT SE0006510335 Analys We cut 2026e EBIT 4%, 2027e unchanged Potential for large order signings near-term Reiterate fair value range of SEK 6-9 per share We forecast 18% EBIT growth in 2026 NYAB delivered another solid report, with 10% organic growth. The margin was diluted, as expected, by the Dovre acquisition in Q1, but was still 8.2% (slightly below ABGSC 8.4%). The free cash flow was strong (142% conversion from EBIT), and the conversion on the full year was 122% (89% avg. 2022-2025), which meant that NYAB is now back in a net cash position. The order backlog in Civil Enginerring was up 18% y-o-y, and with a book-to-bill at 1.1x, we think NYAB is well-positioned to deliver on expectations for 2026 (we forecast 8% organic growth). We lower '26e margins somewhat for a 4% cut to EBIT, but '27e is unchanged. We see 18% EBIT growth in '26e. Potential for a few large orders in H1'26 In addition to the current order book, we see upside potential from upcoming projects: in 2025, NYAB signed two significant phase 1 agreements with Svenska Kraftnät and the Municipality of Uppsala for a new powerline and a tram project, with a potential combined phase 2 project value of ~SEK 4bn for NYAB. These kind of collaboration projects are an important part of NYAB's civil engineering business, and most phase 1s are usually converted to phase 2 wins. We are now nearing the phase 2 of these two major projects, and management expects them to close in Q2'26. We therefore see a good chance that NYAB will deliver a strong order intake in H1'26. Trading at 9x EBITA '26e, 10% below peers With continued good momentum for the Civil Engineering business in 2026 and beyond, we expect margins to expand towards the company's target of >7.5%. That said, given the dilutive effect of Dovre short-term, we expect 6.2-6.3% in 2026-2027, but that 7.5% will be reached over time. Even though the group margin was 5.6% in 2025, it was still much better than construction peers at 3.9%. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2026/2/nyab---18-ebit-growth-26e-with-potential-upside/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2026/2/nyab---18-ebit-growth-26e-with-potential-upside/ Fri, 13 Feb 2026 13:30:07 GMT SE0022242434 Analys A soft end to '25 on earnings We cut '26e-'27e adj. EBIT by 7-6% Trading at ~7x EV/EBIT on our NTM estimates Q4: strong orders but pressured margins Q4 was a weak quarter on adj. EBIT, ~30% below expectations despite a 2% beat on sales and a gross margin of 47.2% vs 46.2% in Q4'24. FX had an impact on Q4 sales of SEK -27m, and we believe that FX headwinds contributed to the net-negative effect on earnings. The adj. EBIT margin amounted to 5.2%, the lowest level since Q4'23. Management alluded that the margin pressure was due to FX, negative scale on operating leverage and elevated administrative expenses. Order bookings increased by 5.5% y-o-y to SEK 251m, which was above our expectations, and was partly driven by a large order of SEK 18m that spilled over from Q3 due to a later seasonal pattern in 2025. We cut estimates on FX and increased opex We leave our '26e-'27e organic sales estimates largely unchanged, but updated FX movements lead to sales estimate cuts of ~3% p.a. for '26e-'27e. Moreover, we cut '25e-'27e adj. EBIT by 7-6% on the back of the report. We keep our assumptions that the '26e-'27e GM will be slightly lower than in '25e, as packaging sales should return once the luxury market recovers (management expects this to happen by mid-2026). We believe that Nilörn's profitability will gradually increase as the current investments in e.g. the new Bangladesh factory start to pay off. Our estimates imply an 11% adj. EBIT margin in '28e. Valuation Our updated estimates imply that Nilörn is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT of ~7x, which is ~17% below the five-year median for Nilörn and ~25% below peers. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2026/2/nilorn---headwinds-could-subside-in-h226/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2026/2/nilorn---headwinds-could-subside-in-h226/ Fri, 13 Feb 2026 11:30:07 GMT SE0007100342 Analys Sales SEK 18m (+7% vs. ABGSCe 16m) Better than expected EBIT of SEK -3.3m (vs. ABGSCe -10m) Improvements in Coating Services (+47% growth y-o-y) Q4 results Sales came in at SEK 18m (+7% vs. ABGSCe 16m), -58% y-o-y. There were no machine deliveries in the quarter, as expected. However, Coating Services delivered a solider quarter and grew +47% y-o-y with sales of SEK 15m (10.4m). EBIT adj. was much better than expected at SEK -3.3m (+7m vs. ABGSCe -10m) due to better than expected cost control. During the quarter, the company carried out a rights issue, providing SEK ~26.6m before costs (of SEK -3.2m). The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 37m. Estimates and outlook On numbers alone, '25e-'27e sales change by +3%, and EBIT adj. changes by SEK +7.2m. On outlook, management writes that while the market remains challenging, the actions taken in 2025 have made the company leaner and better positioned. Focus in 2026 is on driving commercial success, increasing system sales, and expanding into new areas (especially SOFC/power generation). Valuation The share has returned -2% L3M (vs. peer median +2% and OMX Stockholm Allshare +5%), and is currently trading at 2.1x-1.7x '26e-'27e EV/Sales on our pre-report estimates vs. the peer median of 1.9x-0.7x. The company will be hosting a presentation in connection with its Q4 report at 09:00 CEST. Link here . Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2026/2/impact-coatings---no-machines-but-improved-services/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2026/2/impact-coatings---no-machines-but-improved-services/ Fri, 13 Feb 2026 07:45:07 GMT SE0001279142 Analys Sales in line, adj. EBITA +1% vs. FactSet consensus Return to organic growth after 10 quarters, but Finland still struggles Consensus EBITA likely unchanged, but need more detail on Finland Q4 results Sales grew 3% y-o-y (+1% org.) and were 2% above our estimate (in line with FactSet consensus), with Sweden the main driver of the first organic growth in 10 quarters. With a margin of 9.0%, 0.1pp above our estimate (in line with consensus), EBITA adj. was 3% above our estimate (1% above consensus), as Sweden and Norway improved, offsetting a declining profitability in Finland. EBITA included non-recurring items with a negative margin impact of 0.7pp. Cash flow was even better than expected. There is a conference call at 11:00 CET: webcast Estimate changes A new country manager was appointed in Finland to turn operations around. Also, the company is carrying out a structural review of Finland as two larger customer relationships are set to end. The weaker USD will have a sequentially positive impact on the gross margin from here. We expect consensus EBITA adj. to remain largely unchanged. Company valuation It is good to see a return to organic growth and the expected tailwind from the weaker USD, but we need more detail on the development in Finland, which we will hopefully get during the conference call, to draw further reaching conclusions. Over the past three months, the share has returned +6%, compared to the +5% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 15x-11x '25e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 14x-9.4x. Outcome vs. estimates Q4'25 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company Data, FactSet https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2026/2/alligo---sweden-and-norway-better-finland-weaker/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2026/2/alligo---sweden-and-norway-better-finland-weaker/ Fri, 13 Feb 2026 07:30:08 GMT SE0009922305 Analys Q4 report Tuesday, 17 February at 08:30 CET '25e-'27e adj. EBITA down 5-15% 7-6x EBITA in '25e-'27e, 23-13% FCF yields Water & Sewage sale is completed In Q4, Infrea completed the sale of the Water & Sewage segment to Norva24. This means that the segment will be presented as an asset held for sale in the report, and we have adjusted our numbers accordingly. The Water & Sewage segment was a small segment, but it featured an above-group EBITA margin. Due to the sale, we expect Infrea to deliver a Q4 report with -2% sales growth but +12% EBITA growth. We have seen solid improvements in both Land & Construction and Paving Services during the year and expect the improvements to continue in Q4, both internally and in a slowly improving market. Estimate changes With the sale of Water & Sewage, we lower '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 5-15% while we are slightly increasing our 2025 estimates for both remaining segments. We still think the market is regionally tough in some areas, but we believe Infrea can navigate the landscape and defend its margins. We now forecast adj. EBITA in '25e of SEK 54m (SEK 30m in '24), accelerating to SEK 59m and SEK 67m in 2026e and 2027e, respectively, as margins improve from 1.5% in '24 to 3.0% in '27e. Margins to improve and FCF to stabilise We believe Infrea is well-positioned to grow organically and improve margins given its exposure to underlying demand and exposure to public customers (~55%), alongside support from M&A (24% sales CAGR in '20-'23). For '24-'27e, we expect Infrea to deliver growth, margins and FCF in line with peers. The share is currently trading at 7-6x EV/EBITA with a 23-13% FCF yield. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2026/2/infrea---cleaning-the-pipes-for-future-performance/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2026/2/infrea---cleaning-the-pipes-for-future-performance/ Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:30:09 GMT SE0010600106 Analys NOI 2% y-o-y, 2.4% vs ABGSCe, 1.5% vs cons. Value changes of -0.47% vs ABGSCe of 0.13% Hard to call estimate revisions, share to underperform Rec. PTP 1.1% vs ABGSCe, 17.5% y-o-y Fastpartner delivered Q4 results with rental income of SEK 571m (0.2% vs ABGSCe, -0.1% vs cons.), with an NOI margin of 68.9% (1.1pp y-o-y) driving NOI of SEK 393m (2.4% vs ABGSCe, 1.5% vs cons.), rec. PTP of SEK 206m (1.1% vs ABGSCe, 17.5% y-o-y), adj. EPRA NRV p.s. of SEK 92 (-0.3% vs ABGSCe, 0.9% y-o-y). The economic occupancy flat q-o-q at 91.3% (92.4%), occupancy adj. for projects was down -0.1pp q-o-q to 91.6% (92.4%). Dividend proposal of SEK 1.15 per share (1.10), 4.5% vs ABGSCe at SEK 1.10, -4.2% vs cons at SEK 1.20, 4.5% y-o-y. adj. EPRA NRV p.s. of SEK 92 (-0.3% vs ABGSCe, 0.9% y-o-y.) Realised and unrealised value changes amounted to SEK -160m or -0.47%, we expected SEK 43m or 0.13%, and the average valuation yield amounted to 5.10%, -0.1pp q-o-q. Net LTV (ABGSC definition) amounted to 48.1% (47.4%), 0.8pp q-o-q, vs ABGSCe at 47.6%. The average paid interest rate decreased by -0.1pp q-o-q to 3.60%. Conclusion Guidance for IFPM NTM of SEK 790m, vs SEK 860m in Q3'25, compared to our estimate NTM of SEK 862m, i.e. guidance is down 8.1% q-o-q. The current run-rate IFPM amounts to SEK 790m, and FPAR targets to grow this figure to SEK 1.2bn by YE28, which implies a ~15% CAGR. SOJ says that there are small signs of demand improvements, but geopolitical uncertainty delay actions. In addition, office supply is too high in relation to demand in the top 4 cities (Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö, Uppsala). Hard to call estimates on the large negative revision of the run-rate IFPM. Share could easily underperform the sector by ~3-5%. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, Factset https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/fastpartner/Equity-research/2026/2/fastpartner---steep-cut-to-run-rate-ifpm/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/fastpartner/Equity-research/2026/2/fastpartner---steep-cut-to-run-rate-ifpm/ Thu, 12 Feb 2026 13:00:09 GMT SE0013512506 Analys Sales of SEK 61m (-5% vs. ABGSCe), a 3% y-o-y growth ARR continues to grow, up 5%, and defence up 66% y-o-y More a scaling story than a turnaround Q4'25 results Clavister reported Q4'25 sales of SEK 61m (-5% vs. ABGSCe 64m), implying 3% y-o-y growth, and was somewhat held back by defence delivery postponements. EBITDA came in at SEK 9m, slightly above our expectations, driven by improved operating costs than last year. Reported EBIT was SEK -2m, which was in line with expectations. Net profit came in positive at SEK 18m, which explains the positive EPS for the quarter, mainly drive by the recognised deferred tax asset. Stable quarter as Clavister continues to scale We view the quarter as stable rather than weak. Civilian momentum remains solid, with ARR growth of 5%, while the defence business grew 66% y-o-y. Order intake for the full year increased by ~23% to SEK 320m, showing that Clavister continues to win contracts in the defence segment. It is worth noting that the previously postponed deliveries are expected to reverse in 2026. Valuation and thoughts On our unrevised estimates, Clavister is trading at 13-9x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e. We continue to see a structural shift in the European cybersecurity and defence market, and we believe Clavister is well positioned to continue taking market share and winning contracts in the coming years. With a strengthened order backlog, improved balance sheet, and increased defence exposure, the case is now less about turnaround and more about execution and scaling. Management will host a presentation of the report 9.00 ( link ). Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2026/2/clavister---clavister-continues-to-scale/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2026/2/clavister---clavister-continues-to-scale/ Thu, 12 Feb 2026 08:15:54 GMT SE0005308558 Analys Q4 sales SEK 18m (-14% y-o-y), -16% vs. ABGSCe EBIT adj. of SEK -11m (vs. ABGSCe -5.5m) NW&FT showing signs of improvement, weaker GC&MP and FW Q4 results Sales came in at SEK 18m (-16% vs. ABGSCe 22m), -14% y-o-y (-14% org.). NW&FT increased sales y-o-y, while GC&MP and FW had a challenging quarter. Management writes that the positive effect in NW&FT was partly due to a volume shift from Q3 but also slightly improving end-markets. EBIT adj. was SEK -11m (vs. ABGSCe -5.5m). EBIT was adjusted for restructuring costs and write-downs of inventory totalling SEK 7.7m. FCF lease adj. came in at SEK -1.8m (vs. ABGSCe -4.1m). During the quarter, a savings programme of SEK 20m was implemented which management writes will have almost full effect from Jan '26. Estimates and outlook On numbers alone, '25e-'27e sales change by -3%, and EBIT adj. changes by SEK 5m. On outlook, management writes that it aims to deliver significantly improved 2026 earnings, supported by a lower cost base and improving volumes. Valuation The share has returned -3% L3M (vs. peer median +2% and OMX Stockholm Allshare +5%), and is currently trading at 2.2x-2.0x '26e-'27e EV/Sales on our pre-report estimates vs. the peer median of 2.2x-1.4x. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Equity-research/2026/2/organoclick---positive-sales-in-binders-weak-elsewhere/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Equity-research/2026/2/organoclick---positive-sales-in-binders-weak-elsewhere/ Thu, 12 Feb 2026 08:15:33 GMT SE0006510335 Analys Sales 2% and adj. EBIT -31% vs. ABGSCe Order intake SEK 251m, above expectations Likely negative consensus estimate revisions Q4'25 impressions Q4 was better than expected on sales and order bookings, but dissapointed on adj. EBIT. Nilörn delivered sales of SEK 219m (2% vs ABGSCe 214m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 6%. The CEO comments on a cautious market and FX headwinds, as the majority of Nilörn's sales are made in currencies linked to the USD and not SEK. The order intake came in at SEK 251m, implying a y-o-y growth of 5%. This was partly due to a major order (SEK 18m) that typically is received in Q3 but arrived in Q4 2025. For reference, we expected order bookings in the range of SEK 220-240m, meaning that order bookings were above expectations even when excluding the major order. The gross margin increased to 47% (1pp vs ABGSCe 46%). Adj. EBIT amounted to SEK 11m (-31% vs ABGSCe 17m), for a margin of 5.2% (-2.5pp vs ABGSCe 7.7%), vs. 8.4% Q4'24. Thoughts and outlook Nilörn's business model is highly scalable, and quarters with low volumes leads to negative operating leverage, which partly drove the EBIT miss vs. our estimates. While some costs were temporarily elevated, we expect margins to remain pressured in the short term. Visibility has come down a bit, as Nilörn is highly affected by FX movements and the retail market overall is experiencing uncertainty. Nilörn comments on continued caution in the market, specifically in the luxury segment, while other segments such as sports and outdoor are stable. Nilörn reiterates its commentary on current high inventories in the luxury market, which it assesses should come down in mid-2026, ultimately leading to higher demand. Nilörn reiterates its target of 7% growth Mechanical impact on cons. earnings is within a h.s.d. range The share is down ~5% YTD and Nilörn is trading at ~8x '25e EV/EBIT on our unrevised estimates. The mechanic... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2026/2/nilorn---strong-orders-but-pressured-margins/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2026/2/nilorn---strong-orders-but-pressured-margins/ Thu, 12 Feb 2026 08:15:07 GMT SE0007100342 Analys Solid report driven by very strong U.S. performance Adj. EBIT mechanically up 16-13% for '26/'27e Share is currently trading at 11-8x '26e/'27e EBIT Q4 results Sales SEK 1211m (12% vs. ABGSCe 1,081m, no cons), adj. EBIT 54m (108% vs. ABGSCe 26m), adj. EBIT margin 4% (ABGSCe 2.4%). EBIT beat vs ABGSCe driven by solid performance in the U.S and gradual improvement in Germany, alongside lower group costs. NRIs -32m (ABGSCe 0), following expanded cost-saving measures. Note however that the German earnings beat is partly due to impairments in Q4'24. Net debt came down slightly to 1,616m (1,641m in Q3), for a ND/equity of 124% (127% in Q3), although cash flow in the quarter was weighed by significant NWC tie-up. Outlook and estimate changes Management remains confident US demand despite tariff uncertainties driven by high activity in the infrastructure and investments in data centers. The German market remained soft, although management highlights some improvements in the outlook statement. On numbers alone, the earnings beat would raise '26e-'27e adj. EBIT by 16-13%. Overall we see this as a solid report due to the very strong performance in the U.S., in addition to the improved cost control . Valuation Prior to today's report, the share had returned +18 L3M, compared to the 9% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 11-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT. The company will host a conference call at 10.00 CET. pagebreak Deviation table Q4'25 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Equity-research/2026/2/ferronordic---strong-u.s.-more-than-offsets-germany/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Equity-research/2026/2/ferronordic---strong-u.s.-more-than-offsets-germany/ Thu, 12 Feb 2026 07:45:07 GMT SE0005468717 Analys Adj. EBIT 1% vs consensus 10% organic growth, order book +18% y-o-y We expect estimates to be relatively unchanged Q4 results Sales EUR 155m (0% vs ABGSCe 155m and -1% vs cons 155m), +32% y-o-y whereof 10% organic (ABGSC 8%). EBIT 13m (-2% vs ABGSCe 13m and 1% vs cons 13m), +3% y-o-y for a margin of 8.2% (vs ABGSC 8.4%). Net profit EUR 9m (-11% vs ABGSCe 10m and -10% vs cons 10m). The order backlog in Civil Engineering was 381m, +18% y-o-y and provides support for further organic growth in 2026. The FCF remained strong at 18m or 140% of EBIT in Q4. And for 2025, the FCF was 39m (127% of EBIT). EUR 0.014 DPS was proposed (0.15 SEK), corresponding to a 2.5% yield. Preliminary estimate changes Management continues to see good demand and high tender activity across segments. Activity in Civil engineering remains high in Sweden and more cautious in Finland. In Consulting, demand in Norwegian offshore market eased in H2'25 compared to H1 and enter 2026 at a more normalised level. We expect consensus estimates to remain fairly unchanged. Final thoughts NYAB delivered a solid report were organic growth remained good while margins are somewhat held back by Consulting. Looking ahead, we expect continued strong performance in Civil Engineering while margins should start to improve in Consulting, partly from the recently announced divestments and other initiatives. The share is relatively flat L3M (+4%) vs OMXSGI +7%. Management will host a presentation of the report at 10:00 CET, you can use this link to participate. Deviations Source: FactSet consensus https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2026/2/nyab---ebit-in-line-organic-growth-remains-good/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2026/2/nyab---ebit-in-line-organic-growth-remains-good/ Thu, 12 Feb 2026 07:30:07 GMT SE0022242434 Analys Sales -1% and adj. EBITA -5% vs ABGSCe Gross profit of SEK 21.5m, up 5% y-o-y, and GM of 44% SaaS continues to grow, DOCS adoption >26% of municipalities Q4'25 details Generic reports Q4'25 sales of SEK 49.2m (-1% vs ABGSCe 49.7m), broadly in line with expectations. Gross profit came in at SEK 21.5m, up 5% y-o-y, with a gross margin of 44%. This was in line with expectations and confirms continued improvement in the underlying margin profile. Adj. EBITA came in at SEK 10.5m, reflecting higher operating expenses related to organisational changes. While this was expected, costs were slightly higher than we had anticipated. Reported adj. EBIT came in at SEK 10.4m, down 4% y-o-y, representing a margin of 21%. Reaching gross margins of 43.6% (42.9% in Q4'24) The continued expansion in gross margin to 43.6% is important, as Generic is steadily improving its mix, with SaaS products such as DOCS and SenderID contributing. DOCS continues to grow, with penetration of >26% municipalities, and we see continued room for expansion. While costs were somewhat higher than we estimated, we consider these investments necessary to build a more robust and scalable organisation. Valuation Generic is trading at 11-10x on '26e-'27e EV/EBITA on our unrevised estimates. SMS continues to face pricing sensitivity in the market, however, we expect volume to stabilise as the market normalise, penetration within niche customer segments increases, and RCS adoption in the Nordics gains traction. In our view, the key value driver is the SaaS products, and if execution remains solid and penetration continues to expand, we see potential for structurally higher margins over time. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/generic/Equity-research/2026/2/generic---gross-margins-up-but-costs-weigh-in-q4/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/generic/Equity-research/2026/2/generic---gross-margins-up-but-costs-weigh-in-q4/ Thu, 12 Feb 2026 07:00:07 GMT SE0001790791 Analys Overall solid report; focus turning to capital allocation We cut '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 3-2%, 7% CAGR '25-'28e Share trades at 12x EBITA and 8% FCF yield on 2026e Incremental progress towards the 5.5% margin target We think Coor delivered a solid Q4. Margins were somewhat disappointing due to Denmark, which also explains why we cut '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 3-2%. We conclude that the margin recovery continues after successful streamlining initiatives in 2025. For the full year 2025, margins reached 4.8% (4.4% 2024), and we now expect 5.3% in 2026 (down from 5.4% and slightly below the target of 5.5%). On top of the completed streamlining initiatives targeting overhead operations that should give full effect from '26e, we understand that management is still in the early stages of designing and implementing new systems to harmonise day-to-day operations on a more local level through better data collection and reporting. This is an area where the new management team brings important expertise. We therefore remain confident in the 5.5% target and believe Coor will reach it by '28e. Balance sheet allows for higher payout ratio After weak FCF in '23 and '24, the conversion from EBITA was back to a solid 63% in '25 (avg. '15-'23 of ~70%) and we expect >65% for '26e-'28e. This means that we expect Coor to deliver a 7% capital repatriation yield in '26 (4% dividend 3% buybacks) while simultaneously lowering gearing to 2.3x (2.6x). From this level, we think it could combine a high payout and make bolt-on acquisitions (management says it remains active on M&A). For now, we think buybacks are more likely while it focuses on operational efficiencies, but M&A could be relevant from H2'26e and '27e. Fair value range narrowed to SEK 40-80 per share (35-80) Following our estimate revisions, the share is trading at 12x EBITA on '26e (8% FCF yield), fairly in line with Nordic service peers at 11x. Given the strong cash flow recovery in '25, we narrow ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/coor/Equity-research/2026/2/coor---more-margin-improvements-in-2026/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/coor/Equity-research/2026/2/coor---more-margin-improvements-in-2026/ Thu, 12 Feb 2026 06:15:07 GMT SE0007158829 Analys Expanding margins on the back of a maturing asset base A clear and differentiated strategy for each of the four core markets Join us for our 4 March site visit in Warsaw (RSVP link below) From expansion to utilisation and margin delivery The key message from the update is that Medicover is entering a new phase focused on extracting operational leverage from the platform built in recent years, while growth remains a clear priority. Management described the new 2026-28 targets, highlighted in our Fast Comment from 10 February , for the coming years as ambitious but achievable, supported by strong healthcare fundamentals in core markets and a maturing asset base. Technology underpins execution across markets, supporting mix improvement and efficiency gains in the new target period. The four key markets continue to be the focal point Poland benefits from attractive market dynamics, expansion potential and a strong competitive position. The integrated model – corporate members, own clinics, diagnostics and fitness – supports cross-sell, internal referrals and higher lifetime value, while recent capacity additions provide room for revenue growth and margin expansion. In Germany, the priority is expanding the customer base, broadening the test portfolio and accelerating specialised lab testing domestically and internationally, shifting the mix towards higher-value categories. Romania operates in an attractive market with a strong FFS focus, and Healthcare Services is moving out of its investment phase. India was described by the CEO as a "massive country with massive opportunities", supported by favourable demographics and a highly fragmented market. The near-term focus is on improving utilisation and revenue per operating bed within the existing hospital network, alongside selective expansion in Tier 1 cities. Educational and encouraging, but no change to estimates We view management's confidence and the path to the 2028 targets as cle... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/2/medicover---path-to-2028-explained/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/2/medicover---path-to-2028-explained/ Wed, 11 Feb 2026 21:30:06 GMT SE0009778848 Analys Margin pressure to remain in H1'26e We cut our '26-'27 EBIT estimates by 15% and 9% Share is trading at 9x-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT EBIT materially lower than anticipated Careium delivered solid sales in Q4, with organic growth of 6.3% despite tough comps due to the lack of financial leases. Adjusted for this effect, organic growth would have been 13% in Q4 and 9% for 2025 (compared to the reported 1%). While sales were 4% above our expectations, EBIT was materially lower (SEK 8m vs. ABGSCe 24m). Opex grew 23% y-o-y and was driven partly by short-term costs related to new contracts and the phasing out of old assets, as well as investments in personnel and R&D. The FY'25 adj. EBIT margin of 6.3% is the lowest since 2022, and adj. EBIT decreased 36% y-o-y. 2026e: lighter comps but elevated costs Going into 2026, there are tailwinds from lighter comps alongside margin headwinds due to the elevated cost base. The report commented that the margin pressure in Q4 will remain throughout H1'26. Of the several factors driving opex growth mentioned by management, some seem to be more long-term than others. While no specifications were made, we assume that the costs from e.g. phasing out old assets and upfront costs from new contracts are more short-term, and that the investments made in new sales personnel and R&D will remain throughout 2026. On a more positive note, '26e will face much lighter comps than did 2025, as '25 sales did not include material upfront revenues from financial leases. We lower our EBIT estimates We raise '26e-'27e sales by 1% on the back of the report and u pdated FX movements. Our '26e-'27e EBIT estimates are down -15% and -9%, respectively,, due to the commentary on continued margin pressure. Our estimates, meanwhile, imply '26e-'28e sales and EBIT CAGRs of 6% and 20%. On our updated estimates, the s hare is trading at 9x-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT. We lower our fair value range to SEK 20-34 (23-38). https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2026/2/careium---bittersweet-outlook-on-2026/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2026/2/careium---bittersweet-outlook-on-2026/ Wed, 11 Feb 2026 19:00:07 GMT SE0017131824 Analys Q4 boosted by Valuation France divestment We cut 2026e-27e EBIT by 6-8% 2025e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-7x, with easy comps Q4'25e boosted by divestment of Catella Valuation Advisory For the Q4’25 report (due 17 February), we expect EBIT of SEK 101m (63m) and that transaction activity has improved y-o-y in Q4, a sign of positive momentum slowly building up. Looking at the operational segments, we estimate that AUM within Investment Management (IM) will be flat q-o-q at SEK 161bn, burdened by FX headwinds in the quarter. We expect the segment to deliver an operating profit of SEK 39m (34m), a level in-line whit what we have seen throughout 2025. The stronger quarterly result for the group in Q4 is primarily driven by the Catella Valuation Advisory SAS divestment announced in mid-November, which we expect will contribute SEK 50m to Catella shareholders' EBIT and boost the Corporate Finance business area. In terms of capital repatriation, we expect Catella to almost double its dividend, given its strong capitalisation, and we forecast a DPS of SEK 1.7 (0.9) to be announced in the quarter. Our EBIT estimates cut by 6-8% for 2026e-27e In this preview we have updated our FX assumptions and included the divestment of Valuation France and reduced our variable income assumptions within Investment Management for 2026e-27e. In sum, our 2025 EBIT is raised by 14% driven by the divestment, while our 2026e and 2027e EBIT is cut by 6-8%. 2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-7x with a 6-8% dividend yield Catella has many attractive fundamentals, in our view, including a strong balance sheet, an impressive track record within Investment Management and intriguing own-property investments. Applying our latest revisions, Catella is trading at a 2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-7x and offers an appealing dividend yield of 6-8% p.a. across our forecast horizon. In addition, we argue that the transaction activity outlook is positive from here and the comps are easy. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2026/2/catella---divestment-fuels-stronger-finish-to-the-year/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2026/2/catella---divestment-fuels-stronger-finish-to-the-year/ Wed, 11 Feb 2026 14:45:08 GMT SE0000188518 Analys Q4 sales 4% above our ests. at SEK 231m, for 6% org. growth Adj. EBIT SEK 8m vs. ABGSCe 22m Trading at 8x-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA adj. Solid sales but material opex growth Q4 came in above expectations on sales, but materially below on EBIT. Careium delivered sales of SEK 231m (4% vs ABGSCe 221m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 6.3% (2.4pp vs ABGSCe 3.9%). The gross margin decreased slightly to 43.7% (-2.0pp vs ABGSCe 45.7%). Sales in Sweden were negatively impacted by the accounting of financial leases, which had an effect of SEK 13.5m. Excluding the impact of the classification of financial leases, organic growth would have been 13%. EBIT amounted to SEK 8m (-62% vs ABGSCe 22m), for a margin of 3.6% (-6.4pp vs ABGSCe 10%), vs. 11.6% Q4'24. Opex came in at SEK -93m (20% vs ABGSCe -77m), which is a 23% increase y-o-y. Careium comments on short-term margin pressure, however, it did not report any non-recurring items in Q4. FCF in Q4 amounted to SEK 30 m. This is an increase of SEK 14 m y-o-y. FCF was materially above our expectations, mainly due to significantly higher than expected changes in WC . Moreover, Careium reported a "c hange in financial lease receivables" of SEK 12m, which has previously not been specified. Margin pressure to remain throughout H1'26 Careium comments on several factors that affected the EBIT margin negatively. The main theme seems to be long-term initiatives to improve structural capital. This includes integrating historical M&A, increased headcount as well as phasing out outdated assets. Moreover, the cost base was additionally increased by upfront costs from a new large Norwegian customer. These various negative effects are expected to remain during H1'26, to later decrease. Careium did not provide guidance for 2026, but mentioned that the impact of financial lease accounting will be significantly reduced in Q1'26 and forward, which will support both growth and overall margins. Valuation ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2026/2/careium---margin-pressure-to-remain-in-h126-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2026/2/careium---margin-pressure-to-remain-in-h126-/ Wed, 11 Feb 2026 08:00:07 GMT SE0017131824 Analys We keep our estimates unchanged... ...and expect ~10-11% adj. EBITA margins in '26e-'27e Trading at 9-7x EV/EBITA on '26e-'27e, 15% below peers Closing the year with a somewhat stable quarter Prevas reported sales of SEK 432m, representing broadly flat y-o-y growth. This was supported by contributions from M&A and offset by an organic decline of 2%. Adj. EBITA came in at 35m, representing a margin of 8.1% (7.5% Q4'24), driven by continued cost control. Pricing pressure remains in the market, although we note selective price increases that have been implemented at a very gradual pace. Demand remained robust in Defence, where sales grew by ~30% y-o-y (now ~20% of total sales). This segment is characterised by established customer relationships and typically features longer project assignments. EPS for the quarter was SEK 1.67, and SEK 5.49 for '25 (7.13 in '24). Prevas suggested a DPS of SEK 4.00 for a 73% payout ratio, above its target range of 40-60%, supported by a strong balance sheet. Estimates largely unchanged We leave our sales and adj. EBITA estimates unchanged for '26e-'27e. While market conditions remain mixed, we see stabilising demand in Sweden and Finland. As demand improves, we expect personnel costs to increase, which explains why we keep our estimates in place despite the Q4 margin beat. For '26e-'27e, we expect sales to pick up and grow by 6-7%, and reaching adj. EBITA margins of 10-11% for the same period. Valuation and view ahead Prevas is trading at 9-7x EV/EBITA for '26e-'27e on our updated estimates. Looking ahead, Denmark remains a near-term challenge (sales decline of 20% y-o-y), while Finland stands out as a key growth driver following its turnaround (sales increase of 19% y-o-y), and also supports the group with improved margins. Sweden appears stable (flat y-o-y), with improving utilisation. Overall, we believe Prevas enters 2026 with a solid operational and financial situation, with promising margin expansion po... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2026/2/prevas---margins-improving-as-volumes-stabilise/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2026/2/prevas---margins-improving-as-volumes-stabilise/ Wed, 11 Feb 2026 07:45:07 GMT SE0000356008 Analys Adj. EBITA -4% vs ABGSC and FactSet cons Denmark remains challenging, will drive 1-2% est cuts Raises dividend and proposes buyback program Q4 results Sales SEK 3,224m (2% vs ABGSC 3,156m and 3% vs cons 3,132m), 1% y-o-y, 3% organic growth (vs ABGSC 1% and cons 0%). Adj. EBITA 160m (-4% vs ABGSC 167m and -4% vs cons 166m) a bit weaker due to a lower-than-expected margin of 5.0% (vs ABGSC 5.3% and cons 5.3%). Margins were weaker in Denmark and Norway, but a bit stronger in Sweden. Group costs were also higher than expected, but partly elevated by reorganisation cost. Cash conversion was weaker in Q4 (15% FCF/EBITA) but strong for the full year (68%), now back to the historical average (64% 2015-2024) after a weaker period in 2023-2024. Dividend was 2.5 per share (cons 2.4) and it also proposes a buyback program after the AGM (no details yet). Outlook and estimates changes Management reiterated near-term growth headwinds in Denmark, which was expected. On margins, it said it see upside in 2026. We and FactSet consensus already have 5.4% and 5.5% margin in 2026e, respectively. And given the weaker margin in Q4 (mainly driven by Denmark), we expect consensus to cut margin expectations somewhat, and cut '26e-'27e EBITA by ~1-2%. Final thoughts Overall, the report was a bit weaker than expected (margins and cash conversion) and we see some downside to estimates. However, Coor being more forward-leaning on capital repatriation is positive in our view, and should outweigh somewhat lower estimates. Denmark remains challenging, and should be the main reason for estimate cuts. These challenges are known, but the magnitude slightly more than estimated. The share has performed well recently (+27% L3M, +18% YTD, vs OMXSGI +9% and +5%). It is now trading at 11x EBITA on our unrevised 2026 estimates vs Nordic service peers at 11x and ISS at 12x. Management will host a presentation of the report at 10:00 CET, you can use this link to participate. ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/coor/Equity-research/2026/2/coor---miss-from-denmark-but-proposes-buybacks/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/coor/Equity-research/2026/2/coor---miss-from-denmark-but-proposes-buybacks/ Wed, 11 Feb 2026 07:30:06 GMT SE0007158829 Analys A solid report and new targets underpin long-term case Adj. EBITDA largely unchanged for '26e-'27e, sales slightly down We now expect a 15% adj. EBITDA CAGR '25-'28e Solid Q4 closes a strong year Q4 was in line with estimates and confirmed the underlying momentum despite some near-term noise. Sales were EUR 612m (0%/-3% vs. ABGSCe/Infront consensus), with organic growth of 11% (ABGSCe 11%), and adj. EBITDA of EUR 95m (0%/-3% vs. ABGSCe/consensus), implying a margin of 15.5%, up 1.4pp y-o-y. Both Healthcare Services and Diagnostic Services delivered y-o-y margin expansion, supported by price improvements, volume growth and operational leverage. Within HS, sports/wellness and ambulatory clinics in Poland performed well, while India saw double-digit growth in local currency. In DS, strong FFS volumes, efficiency measures and a favourable mix helped offset the German reimbursement reform, confirming the segment is navigating the change well. OCF was also strong, up 56% y-o-y. Management pointed to early signs of recovery in the softer demand trends seen in late Q3, with improving momentum in India driven by increasing capacity utilisation and operational improvements. Note that the company will host an investor update on Wednesday, 11 Feb, 13:00-15:00 CET. Estimate changes We leave '26e-'27e adj. EBITDA broadly unchanged, +0-1%, while we lower sales by 2-3%. Overall, we believe the new targets support continued solid growth, albeit somewhat lower than we had in our numbers, but with margins expected to improve further. We now expect sales of EUR 3.25bn, in line with the company's targets, and adj. EBITDA of EUR 590m, a tad below the '28 target of EUR 600m. FVR unchanged at SEK 200-280 We leave our FVR at SEK 220-280 on minor estimate revisions. We derive our range from the multiples of two peer groups, one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '26e EV/EBIT... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/2/medicover---a-promising-trajectory-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/2/medicover---a-promising-trajectory-/ Tue, 10 Feb 2026 19:00:07 GMT SE0009778848 Analys Cost actions showing up in margin improvements Memory prices could support near-term growth recovery Adj. EBITA +0-1%, share at 7.3x 2026e EV/EBITA On its way back to growth and margin improvements in 2026e Despite a negative organic development on Q4 sales (-5%), Proact delivered y-o-y adj. EBITA growth, demonstrating that cost actions are already bearing fruit and earnings resilience remains strong. LTM margin declines in segments West and Central seem to have flattened out, and potential for margin improvements should be good in 2026e, although sales may remain somewhat under pressure. On rising memory prices, Proact's position enables it to immediately pass price increases on to customers without any risk on its own books. We estimate that prices for data storage and servers from Dell and NetApp may rise by as much as 20-30% during Q1, which will serve as a positive growth driver despite a likely decline in volumes. We therefore expect to see Proact return to slightly positive organic growth already in Q1'26e, combined with easier y-o-y comps. The acquisitions of BlakYaks and Consular will also contribute to earnings growth in Q1e. Small positive estimate revisions Due to the sales miss in Q4 and unfavourable FX movements, we make lower our 2026-27e sales by 2% and 3%, respectively, although we forecast positive organic growth in 2026e, partly supported by memory price increases and easy comps. Finally, we we raise our 2026-27e adj. EBITA forecasts by 0-1% (2-3% ex-FX) on better-than-expected cost control. Share at 7.3x 2026e EV/EBITA Based on our updated forecast of 3% organic growth and 7% adjusted EBITA growth in 2026, the share is currently trading at 7.3x EV/adj. EBITA. This is around 30% below the peer average of 9.3x NTM EV/EBITA. With a positive net cash position and cash flow, there are opportunities for dividends, buybacks and acquisitions ahead. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/2/proact---earnings-resilience-remains-impressive/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/2/proact---earnings-resilience-remains-impressive/ Tue, 10 Feb 2026 16:00:06 GMT SE0015961222 Analys Sales of SEK 432m, organic decline of 2% Adj. EBITA of SEK 35m, and a margin of 8% Continued demand within defence and cybersecurity Q4'25 details Prevas reports Q4'25 sales of SEK 432m (1% vs. ABGSCe 430m), and organic decline of -2%. Reported adj. EBITA came in at SEK 35m (18% vs. ABGSCe 29m), with an adj. EBITA margin of 8%. The margin continues to be stable due to the company's sales focus, cost discipline, and continued workforce adjustments. The company proposes a DPS of SEK 4.00. Continued cost efforts Market sentiment for Prevas shows signs of improvement. Demand remains strong in segments such as defence and cybersecurity, with defence in particular continuing to grow and now stands for ~20% of total sales. Denmark remains challenging, with sales down ~20% y-o-y, which is broadly in line with expectations. Finland continued to perform well, delivering ~20% organic growth y-o-y. Sweden remained broadly flat, with sales of SEK 319m. Valuation Prevas is trading 10-7x on '26e-'27e EV/EBITA on our unrevised estimates. Conference call at CET 09.30 ( link ). Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2026/2/prevas---stable-quarter-closing-the-year/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2026/2/prevas---stable-quarter-closing-the-year/ Tue, 10 Feb 2026 08:30:05 GMT SE0000356008 Analys Sales -5% vs ABG, adj. EBITA +23% on lower opex West and Central continue to struggle, UK positive driver Raised DPS shows financial strength, estimates and share +1-4% Q4 details Sales SEK 1,208m (-5% vs ABG 1,275m, no cons). Adj. EBITA 85m (23% vs ABG 69m), Adj. EBITA margin 7.0% (ABG 5.4%). Organic growth -5% (vs ABG 3%), of which system sales -6% (ABG 4%) and services -3% (ABG 1%). Adj. EBITA +6% y-o-y (ABG -14%). DPS SEK 2.60 (53% vs ABG 1.70) and up 8% y-o-y shows financial strength. Cost savings ahead of expectations Weak sales development at the end of the year driven by low system sales and continued weak Dutch and German markets, while UK stands out positively. Earnings beat driven by cost actions (opex -20% vs ABG). OCF at SEK 229m (207m Q4’24) is good. Cautiously optimistic outlook, with continued margin focus ahead supported by estimated cost savings of SEK 80m in 2026. Small revisions and positive reaction warranted We expect consensus to make relatively small estimate revisions on 2026 (1-3%) and share likely to outperform the market today by 2-4% on the earnings beat. Conf call at CET 9.00. Deviation Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/2/proact---cost-savings-ahead-of-expectations/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/2/proact---cost-savings-ahead-of-expectations/ Tue, 10 Feb 2026 08:00:05 GMT SE0015961222 Analys 0%/-3% adj. EBITDA vs ABGSCe/Infront cons in Q4 Cons estimates likely flat on adj. EBITDA '26e, up mid-term New targets 9% above ABGSCe target expectation on earnings Q4 results Medicover reported a solid Q4 with sales in-line and a small miss on adj. EBITDA vs cons (0%/-3% vs. ABGSCe/Infront cons). Q4 sales came in at EUR 612m (-1% vs ABGSCe, 0% vs cons). Total organic sales growth in the quarter was +11% (ABGSCe +11%). Adj. EBITDA in Q4 was 95m (0% vs. ABGSCe, -3% vs. cons), for a margin of 15.5% (ABGSCe 15.4%, cons 15.9%). Total NRI in Q4 was EUR -5m (ABGSCe EUR -3m, cons EUR -4m). HS delivers an in-line result, with sports/wellness as well as the ambulatory business continuing to support revenue. The company highlights that India shows double-digit growth in local currency. DS looks somewhat better in terms of margin, supported by FFS growth. Cash flow from operating activities look strong in the quarter, up 56% y-o-y. Overall, solid report with continued growth and margin expansion, as expected. The softness highlighted ahead of Q4 by management is said to show early signs of recovery. New targets and estimate changes As we expected, the company presented new targets for 2026-2028 yesterday evening, including 1) organic revenue >EUR 3.25bn and 2) organic adj. EBITDA >EUR 600m by 2028, alongside 3) ND/EBITDAaL ≤3.0x and a dividend payout of up to 50% of net profit. The sales target is ~2% below our >EUR 3.3bn expectation, while the adj. EBITDA ambition is ~9% above our >EUR 550m expectation. The leverage target is below what we expected (ABGSCe <3.5x). Management points to attractive end markets and a strong track record, with network expansion, efficiency gains and tech investments supporting continued organic growth and margin expansion within a disciplined financial framework. More detail to follow at the investor update on 11 February. Estimates likely flat on the report for FY’26e. However, given the new targ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/2/medicover---new-targets-confirm-the-long-term-story-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/2/medicover---new-targets-confirm-the-long-term-story-/ Tue, 10 Feb 2026 07:15:06 GMT SE0009778848 Analys We expect broad-based organic growth Q4e net sales of SEK 193m, EBITA of SEK 25m We reiterate our SEK 36-43 fair value range All companies but Artscape to grow 4-5% org. in Q4e We expect little deviation from the YTD momentum into Q4. On tougher Artscape-related comparable growth figures (and -20% org. growth in Q4 y-o-y), we expect Embellence Group to report ~flat organic growth y-o-y. We forecast around 5% org. growth for the other group companies. We note that Embellence Group is minimally exposed to transaction effects in FX and we expect insignificant changes to the gross margin vs Q3 and y-o-y. We do not expect meaningful underlying changes to SG&A costs from earlier in the year, as we forecast a level in line with Q2. All in all, we forecast adj. EBITA of SEK 25m, -9% y-o-y driven by the tough comp for Artscape, for a margin of 12.8%. We expect Embellence's Board to propose a DPS of SEK 1.5, 53% of EPS, vs SEK 1.25 for 2024. FX drives EBITA cuts of 4% for '26e-'27e We cut '26e-'27e EBITA by 4% in this note, of which 3pp is related to the gradually stronger SEK vs the EUR and USD since our last update. We make limited changes otherwise: we raise our SG&A cost estimates slightly to account for a higher sales focus and increased efforts in upgrading the online platforms; Boråstapeter's website is the next one to be upgraded since Cole & Son's website was upgraded in Q4. We reiterate our SEK 36-43 fair value range The Embellence share is trading at 7x-6x our '26e-'27e EV/EBITA. We leave our fair value range unchanged at SEK 36-43, which corresponds to 8x-9x NTM EV/EBITA vs. its L3Y trading range of 6.8x-7.8x NTM. Embellence Group is inching closer to its 15% EBITA margin target; we expect it to be reached in LTM terms in Q4'25e, and we also forecast 11-12% post-lease FCF yields for '26e-'27e. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2026/2/embellence-group---artscape-distorts-progress-in-q4e/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2026/2/embellence-group---artscape-distorts-progress-in-q4e/ Mon, 09 Feb 2026 19:45:03 GMT SE0013888831 Analys FY'25e adj. EBIT NOK 81m Accretive acquisition Fair value range of NOK 15-25 '25e adj. EBIT NOK 81m We pencil in H2'25e revenues of NOK 260m, up 9% y-o-y. This implies FY'25e revenues of NOK 496m, +10% y-o-y. We have fine-tuned our EBIT estimates and have included somewhat higher costs related to the Edrupt acquisition, but we leave our adj. EBIT estimates unchanged. We pencil in adj. EBIT of NOK 81m for the full-year '25, which implies NOK 45m for H2'25. Regarding margins, we see a group adj. EBIT margin at 17.3% for H2'25 and 16.3% for the full year. The company has strong revenue visibility, with ~90% of its revenues the following year locked in during autumn. For the academic year '25/'26e, we see group revenues of NOK 541m and adj. EBIT of NOK 99m, which implies Sonans and ONH revenues up 6% and 12% y-o-y. Accretive acquisition Lumi announced in Dec '25 that it had acquired Edrupt, the company behind the EnkelEksamen digital platform. Edrupt provides online video courses and AI learning tools that help students prepare for exams. The deal was done at a '25 EV/EBIT of 14.3x (vs. Lumi 18.4x), but note that parts of the EV are structured as earn-out payments and outperformance consideration, i.e the upfront payment is NOK 71.7m and will be financed through existing facilities. For FY'25, Edrupt is expected to post revenues of NOK 40m (+20% y-o-y) and adj. EBIT of NOK 10.5m (+50% y-o-y and 26% margin). For '26e, we see Edrupt revenues of NOK 46m (+15% y-o-y) and adj. EBIT of NOK 12m (+14% y-o-y). This increases our FY'26e estimates by 8-11%, and our AY '25/'26e revenue is up 4%. Fair value range of NOK 15-25 A peer valuation using '25e-'27e multiples points to NOK 12-25/sh, but narrows to NOK 18-25 when looking at '26e-'27e multiples only. Lumi is trading at '26e/'27e EV/EBIT of ~12.3x/9.4x and a P/E of ~17.5x/13x, while enjoying strong earnings growth and relatively high barriers to entry. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/lumi-gruppen/Equity-research/2026/2/lumi-gruppen---textbook-acquisition---h225-preview/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/lumi-gruppen/Equity-research/2026/2/lumi-gruppen---textbook-acquisition---h225-preview/ Mon, 09 Feb 2026 17:15:33 GMT NO0010927288 Analys Q4 EBITDA of NOK 5m Awaiting improved markets '26e-'27e estimates down – fair value range of NOK 8-18. Q4 EBITDA of NOK 5m The last couple of years have not been a period of smooth sailing for StrongPoint, as project delays and long decision-making cycles have hampered momentum and weighed on profitability. Adjusted EBITDA was NOK 12m in '24, down from NOK 80m in '22. It remains a waiting game, but performance has improved in '25, with Q3 YTD EBITDA of NOK 31m. We model Q4 revenues of ~NOK 350m (up ~3% y-o-y), with a gross margin of 42.3% and EBITDA of ~NOK 5m. This implies '25 EBITDA of ~NOK 36m, up 3x from '24 adj. EBITDA. Awaiting improved markets The EBITDA margin is still under pressure at ~2.7% compared to the company's long-term target of >10%. Although we believe the long-term target will remain in place, we expect StrongPoint wil provide a new strategy update in H1'26 for its short-term targets. Previously, StrongPoint targeted '25 revenues of NOK 1.5bn-1.8bn and an EBITDA margin of 4-6%. With these targets out of range, coupled with still challenging market conditions, it is likely that the company will adopt a more cautious view on its short-term targets, meaning a modest '26 target is likely. We model a '26e EBITDA margin of 2.6%, for EBITDA of ~NOK 39m, or 50% below the previous '25 target. '26e-'27e down Our '26e-'27e estimates are down, as we lift opex somewhat and factor in some short-term drag from the end of the Pricer partnership. StrongPoint has entered a new partnership with Vusion Group, which we understand provides more add-ons and upselling opportunities. However, in the short term, Strongpoint will lose some of its recurring revenue base. With more cautious estimates and a long-term EBITDA margin of ~8% (vs. >10% target), our DCF points to an equity value of NOK 645m, and we see fair range of NOK 8-18/sh. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2026/2/strongpoint---more-of-the-same/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2026/2/strongpoint---more-of-the-same/ Mon, 09 Feb 2026 17:15:07 GMT NO0010098247 Analys 2026 recovery after two challenging years '26e-'27e EBIT down 35-24%; ~60% EBIT CAGR '25-'28e 18-10x EBIT '26e-'27e, ~30-40% ROCE, net cash OEMs and flight data both support a return to growth We believe that Q4'25 marked the end of a challenging period for CTT, where organic growth has been negative in 2024-2025 due to a slow OEM recovery and destocking in the aftermarket channel. FX has also become a major headwind, which we estimate accounted for half of the ~60% EBIT decline in FY'25. Currency aside, while also acknowledging that we have repeatedly overestimated the pace of the recovery, we argue that there is good support for CTT's guidance of higher sales in Q1'26 vs. Q4'25 in USD terms. First, both Boeing and Airbus have ramped up deliveries in 2025, and Boeing has also reaffirmed higher production in 2026. This, together with higher content per aircraft, should now drive clear growth in system sales. Second, flight traffic remains solid, inventory levels are better balanced, and CTT's installed base grew 10% in 2025, and is expected to grow >20% in 2026. This will drive higher aftermarket sales. Thus, we expect organic growth already in Q1'26 (+29%), which together with margins of ~20% in H1'26 and ~27% in H2'26 will drive ~20% EBIT growth in H1'26, and >100% in H2'26. Recovery ahead We lower '26e-'27e EBIT by 35-24% due to FX, a lower 2025 base and slower system sales. From 2026e, the combination of accelerated OEM sales, and a recovering aftermarket business should drive ~40-30% organic sales growth and ~70-40% EBIT growth in '26e-'28e. Multi-year double-digit growth potential Despite seeing tougher headwinds than we had previously anticipated, CTT's core strengths remain: the company benefits from a near-monopolistic position, strong demand, and its margin-accretive AM business. This should drive long-term double-digit earnings growth, while the share is now trading at 18-10x EBIT '26e-'27e (23x L10Y), offering 5-7% dividend ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ctt-systems/Equity-research/2026/2/ctt-systems---third-times-the-charm/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ctt-systems/Equity-research/2026/2/ctt-systems---third-times-the-charm/ Sun, 08 Feb 2026 18:30:01 GMT SE0000418923 Analys A surprising sequential margin decline in Q4... ... but we see no structural issues behind it EBITA lowered by 5-3%, share now at 13.2x '26e EV/EBITA An unexpected sequential margin drop Nolato reported Q4 sales in line with IR consensus (2% below ABGSCe), but saw a substantial and unexpected sequential adj. EBITA margin drop of 1.3pp to 10.4% (ABGSCe 11.9%, cons. 11.6%). This follows four consecutive quarters of q-o-q margin expansion, and thus it caught us off guard. This was driven by: 1) start-up costs for new medical products in the US, 2) an unusually large winter holiday impact, and 3) higher COGS related to precious metal prices, while Nolato's price hikes to its customers come with a lag effect. Although there may be some lingering margin headwinds into the coming quarters as well, we stress that we see these factors as temporary and from a long term perspective, we argue they do not impact Nolato's ability to reach its 12% EBITA margin target. EBITA lowered by 5-3%, of which -2pp from FX We lower our EBITA estimates by 5-3% for '26e-'27e, of which -2pp per year stems from updated FX assumptions. The remainder stems from lowered margin assumptions for Engineered Solutions. Share trading at 13.2-11.5x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA The Q4 numbers were disappointing, but carry no structural implications on Nolato's profitability, in our view. The share is now trading at 13.2-11.5x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA vs. its historical average multiple of 15.2x, and it currently offers FCF yields of 5-6%. Finally, we highlight that we see accelerating organic growth from Q3'26e driven by the ramp-up of the new expansion in Hungary, which the company reiterated on the conference call is progressing according to plan. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2026/2/nolato---an-unexpected-hiccup-in-the-earnings-trend/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2026/2/nolato---an-unexpected-hiccup-in-the-earnings-trend/ Fri, 06 Feb 2026 15:00:09 GMT SE0015962477 Analys Strong FM&WT EBIT margin (19% vs. ABGSCe 15%) We trim our margin estimates for Decommissioning and Scandpower ...but FM&WT margin upgrades partly offset cuts Q4 results Studsvik reported Q4 sales of SEK 223m (-4% vs. ABGSCe) and EBIT of SEK 18m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 23m). The print was mixed, but FM&WT once again stood out, delivering a strong EBIT margin of 19% (vs. ABGSCe 15%). This supports our view of a clear step-up in FY'25 profitability (16% EBIT margin vs. 1% in ’24 and 13% in ’23) as efficiency initiatives continue to take effect. However, Decommissioning remained the weak spot, with tougher competition and pricing pressure driving sales 17% below our estimate and EBIT of SEK 9m below our forecast. Scandpower also came in softer, with sales down 15% y-o-y due to seasonality and tough comps. Estimate changes and outlook Following the Q4 report, we cut ’26e-’27e sales by 3% and EBIT by 4-3%, respectively. The downgrade is driven by lower Decommissioning sales and margin assumptions due to continued competition and pricing pressure. We now expect ’26e-’27e margins of 4-5% (previously 5-6%). Management remains constructive on the segment’s long-term outlook, however, and continues to guide for a gradual margin recovery through ’26e, supported by several initiatives. We also trim our Scandpower EBIT margin estimates, reflecting an assumption of lower margins in BlackStarTech. In contrast, we raise our ’26e-’27e FM&WT EBIT margin assumptions to 16-17% (15% previously), which partly offsets the reductions in the other two segments. In a good strategic position Although lead times are long, we continue to believe that Studsvik is in an interesting strategic position as more countries increasingly adopt nuclear power as part of their sustainable energy solutions. The share has returned +32% L3M (vs. peers at -7%, OMXSALLS +8%) and is currently trading at 38x-33x '26e-'27e E... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/studsvik/Equity-research/2026/2/studsvik---fmwt-momentum-builds/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/studsvik/Equity-research/2026/2/studsvik---fmwt-momentum-builds/ Fri, 06 Feb 2026 09:30:08 GMT SE0000653230 Analys Lower earnings due to FX and inventory adjustments Q4 deviation and FX to negatively impact ABGSCe FY'26 EBIT Share -17% into numbers, trades at 16-11x EBIT '26e-'27e (pre-Q4) Q4 details Note that our latest published estimates are from October, while the USD/SEK has moved considerably since then. Sales were 26% below our expectations, with sales of SEK 57m declining 22% y-o-y organically (ABGSCe +7%). This was driven by a 43% decline in aftermarket sales (ABG -28% y-o-y), while system sales grew 6% y-o-y (ABG +58%). AM share of sales was 61% (ABG 57%). According to the CEO, the negative inventory adjustment effect on AM sales in the quarter was -10m, and that inventory levels in the beginning of 2026 at the distributors are "better balanced", while the installed base grew 10% y-o-y in FY'25. EBIT declined 79% y-o-y (ABG -61% y-o-y), as the margin came in at 12% (ABG 17%, 41% Q4'24) due to FX headwinds, lower overall volumes and a lower share of AM sales. Free cash flow of -8m was soft (+14m last year) due to late deliveries in Q4'25, with payments to be made in H1'26. The FY'25 EPS was SEK 3.08 while the dividend was SEK 2.4 (ABG 6.0), vs. 5.35 last year. Outlook and estimate changes CTT will not yet reinstate its usual revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter. However, the CEO expects higher sales, in USD terms, in Q1'26 vs. Q4'25, driven by more OEM deliveries and higher AM sales, but with low-to-no VIP deliveries in H1'26. For FY'26, the outlook is for "significantly higher volumes from OEMs and improvement in our AM business" while FX movements remain a key uncertainty. Finally, the CEO expects higher volumes and cost control to "gradually drive the margin upwards to 25% or above" (vs. ABGSCe ~30% '26e-'27e). All other assumptions intact, the Q4 deviation on EBIT and our impression of the Q1'26 guidance vs. ABGSCe would mechanically lower our FY'26e EBIT by ~10%. In addition, using current FX rates vs. our latest published note, we note t... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ctt-systems/Equity-research/2026/2/ctt-systems---soft-q4-partly-expected-growth-into-q126/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ctt-systems/Equity-research/2026/2/ctt-systems---soft-q4-partly-expected-growth-into-q126/ Fri, 06 Feb 2026 07:45:07 GMT SE0000418923 Analys PDUFA action date for Orviglance in July Cash runway into Q4'26 Fair value range updated: SEK 2.1-5.8 (2.9-6.6) Cash runway into Q4'26 and well beyond PDUFA action date Ascelia delivered a quarter largely in line with expectations, with operating CF at SEK -15m (SEK -16m in Q3) and cash and cash equivalents at SEK 50m (SEK 72m in Q3). Opex decreased by ~30% y-o-y and was flat q-o-q. Importantly, the New Drug Application (NDA) submission to the FDA for the MRI contrast agent Orviglance was formally accepted by the FDA in mid-November, with a PDUFA action date (decision date) on 3 July 2026 following a standard ten-month review time. As before, Ascelia expects a cash runway into Q4'26, excluding potential partner revenues, i.e. well beyond the expected FDA approval date of Orviglance. Ascelia stated that it continues to be in active partner discussions. This comes after the pivotal Ph 3 SPARKLE trial successfully met its primary endpoint, demonstrating that the company’s MRI contrast agent Orviglance significantly (p < 0.001) improved the visualisation of metastatic liver lesions compared to unenhanced MRI. Estimate revisions As before, we model that Orviglance will be commercialised through a partner – in line with sustained company guidance. We make the following estimate revisions to our model: i) We update current substantial FX headwinds; ii) We slightly delay the US launch of Orviglance from Q3'26 to Q4'26; and iii) The timeline for Oncoral in metastatic gastric cancer is delayed by one year, i.e. Ph 2 trial initiation in 2027e and market launch in 2032e. Valuation update – fair value range of SEK 2.1-5.8 (2.9-6.6) The changes listed above yield a new fair value range of SEK 2.1-5.8 (2.9-6.6). Importantly, Ascelia has funding beyond the PDUFA action date, which improves the company's negotiating position. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ascelia-pharma/Equity-research/2026/2/ascelia-pharma---preparing-for-a-us-approval-and-partner-deal/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ascelia-pharma/Equity-research/2026/2/ascelia-pharma---preparing-for-a-us-approval-and-partner-deal/ Thu, 05 Feb 2026 20:30:08 GMT SE0010573113 Analys Q4: -23% organic growth (vs. ABGSCe -12%) Financially constrained customer weighed on ’25 org. growth Long-term potential intact, expect continued CMP growth in '26e 2025, a mixed financial year Q4 organic growth came in below our estimate at -23% (vs. ABGSCe -12%, +120% in Q4'24). This implies FY’25 organic sales growth of +1%, a sharp slowdown from the +47% delivered in FY’24. The weaker performance was primarily due to a sizeable customer facing financial constraints, which led to a 2/3 reduction in volume offtake during FY’25. This has weighed on I-Tech’s volumes since Q2’25. Moving forward, we expect this customer’s volumes to be limited in H1’26, followed by an anticipated gradual recovery in H2’26. For '26e, we forecast +15% organic growth, driven by 1) continued CMP volume growth, 2) a gradual recovery in the large customer’s volumes and 3) growth among smaller customers (e.g. PPG, Jotun, Kansai Paints). Estimate changes We cut '26e-'27e sales and EBIT by 5% and 7-5%, respectively, on the back of the weaker than expected Q4 report. We remain positive on the long-term potential While organic growth was weaker in FY’25, we continue to believe I-Tech is gaining market share. Importantly, CMP volumes grew +21% in FY’25, and we expect CMP to continue growing volumes in '26e. Additionally, we find it positive that China’s share of sales increased to 26% in FY’25 (13%), suggesting improving penetration in the Chinese market, where I-Tech has exposure to the dry-docking market, which is materially larger than the currently dominant newbuild market. The company is trading at 7x-4x EV/EBIT on '26e-'27e, and 11x-9x P/E, i.e. ~60-70% below peers. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2026/2/i-tech---a-pause-in-pace-not-the-story/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2026/2/i-tech---a-pause-in-pace-not-the-story/ Thu, 05 Feb 2026 20:15:08 GMT SE0011167725 Analys NOI -1% and rec PTP -10% vs ABGSCe Occupancy -0.9pp q-o-q, EC IFPM -1.6% q-o-q Cons estimates down ~1-2% Recurring PTP -10% vs ABGSCe Eastnine delivered a Q4 report with rental income of EUR 15.4m (0% vs ABGSCe) and NOI of EUR 14.3m (-1% vs ABGSCe). Central admin costs and net interest expenses were both higher than expected, leading to recurring PTP of EUR 7m being -10% vs ABGSCe. Occupancy came down by 0.9pp sequentially to 95,8% and net letting amounted to EUR 0.36m. The earnings capacity IFPM decreased by 2% sequentially, primarily driven by higher property costs. All in all, the main deviation on Q4 numbers (rec PTP -10% vs ABGSCe) is driven by net financial expenses (EUR 6m vs ABG at EUR 5.5m and the Q3 earnings capacity at EUR 5.5m). However, looking at the forward-looking figures (average net interest rate and earnings capacity), it seems like net financials in Q4 were higher than normalised on FX, meaning we expect cons to come down by 1-2%. Property values -0.3%, net LTV flat q-o-q at 47% Property value changes in the quarter amounted to -EUR 3.2m (-0.3% of property value), where we had anticipated +0.4%. The valuation yield was flat q-o-q. The net LTV (ABGSC definition) increased by 0.3pp q-o-q to 47.3% and the average interest rate was down 0.1pp q-o-q to 4.3%. EPRA NRV per share came in at EUR 5.1 (-1% vs ABGSCe). Conclusion Q4 recurring PTP was -10% vs ABGSCe, driven by net financial expenses, which does not seems to be extrapolated based on the earnings capacity and the average interest rate coming down. The earnings capacity IFPM per share decreased by 1.6% sequentially, which probably is a good starting point / guess for consensus estimate revisions. Company guides on more M&A going forward, which is similar to Q3 guidance. All in all, we expect consensus estimates to come down slightly on the back of the report, which should be illustrative for the share price performance. CC at CET 15.00 at Q4 Report 2025 D... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eastnine/Equity-research/2026/2/eastnine---estimates-likely-coming-down-1-2/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eastnine/Equity-research/2026/2/eastnine---estimates-likely-coming-down-1-2/ Thu, 05 Feb 2026 13:30:08 GMT SE0002158568 Analys Sales -4% & EBIT adj. SEK 5m below vs. ABGSCe Strong quarter for FM&WM, weaker for Decommissioning Expecting gradual improvement in Decommissioning margins in '26e Q4 results Sales fell 10% y-o-y and were 4% below our estimate. With an EBIT margin of 8.3%, 1.5pp below our estimate, EBIT was 18% below our estimate. Fuel, Materials and Waste Technology had a strong quarter, reporting sales of SEK 106m (vs. ABGSCe 95m). The company writes the higher sales comes from progress in customer projects, positive productivity development and favourable product mix. However, tough competition in Decommissioning weighed on Q4, with sales 17% below our estimate and EBIT SEK 9m under. Furthermore, Scandpower faced tough comps in the quarter, with sales coming in lower than expected (-13% vs. ABGSCe) due to seasonal variations in the business area. There is a conference call at 10:00 CET: https://studsvik.events.inderes.com/q4-report-2025/register Estimate changes The Q4 numbers in isolation imply EBIT adj. comes down 7%. Although Decommissioning had a challenging quarter, the company believes that conditions are favourable for a gradual improvement in margins in '26e. The company states that it is witnessing growing demand and interest in advanced nuclear technologies, which it expects will create long-term opportunities for Studsvik. Valuation Prior to today's report, the share had returned +21% L3M, compared to the +8% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 50x-45x '26e-'27e P/E. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/studsvik/Equity-research/2026/2/studsvik---fmwm-shines-decommissioning-lags/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/studsvik/Equity-research/2026/2/studsvik---fmwm-shines-decommissioning-lags/ Thu, 05 Feb 2026 08:30:07 GMT SE0000653230 Analys Sales -13 % vs. ABGSCe, EBIT SEK 7.6m vs. ABGSCe 9.4m Three coating products launched in Korea in Q4 Sizeable customer with financial constraints impacting volumes Q4 results I-Tech reported sales of SEK 39m, falling 13% short of our estimate (-33% y-o-y, -23% org.). Despite lower sales, costs were lower than expected and EBIT was SEK 7.6m (vs. ABGSCe 9.4m), for a margin of 20% (ABGSCe 21%). Gross margins remained stable at 57% (vs. ABGSCe 57% and 54% LY). Cash flow was strong and FCF lease adj. came in at SEK 12m (vs. ABGSCe 3.3m). In addition, the Board proposes an ordinary dividend of SEK 1.25 per share (compared to SEK 1.75 last year, including an extra dividend). This corresponds to 45% of the net profit (53% LY). Estimates and outlook On numbers alone, '25e-'27e sales change by -3%, and EBIT adj. changes by -4%. I-Tech's sizeable customer with financial constraints reduced volume offtake by two thirds for 2025, which had a negative impact on growth for the year. However, CMP continued to develop positively, with volumes growing 21% y-o-y. Furthermore, the company announced it has launched three new coating products that comply with upcoming legislation in Korea (low biocide content) during Q4. However, significant volume contributions from these products are expected to materialise gradually. Valuation The share has returned -27% L3M (vs. peer median -20% and OMXSSMAC +4%), and is currently trading at 14x-10x '26e-'27e P/E on our pre-report estimates vs. the peer median of 28x-21x. T he company will host a presentation of the Q4 results at 13:00 CET. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2026/2/i-tech---customer-pullback-weighing-on-growth/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2026/2/i-tech---customer-pullback-weighing-on-growth/ Thu, 05 Feb 2026 07:45:07 GMT SE0011167725 Analys First signs of Swedish project market recovery Could add ~15% of '25e EBITA N3Y Ready for M&A, Q4'26e ND/EBITDA 0.3x Better across all regions As was the case in Q3, Svedbergs Group improved on all fronts in Q4. All companies reported organic growth (6-18%), with a larger acceleration seen in Sweden. While parts of this development can be explained by the fact that the Swedish ROT deduction extension ended 31 December, commentary during the conference call pointed to a recovery in the project market, which showed low-single-digit growth y-o-y after consistent declines since 2022. Adjusting Roper Rhodes' result for a previous accounting effect related to shipping cost provisions, all companies improved margins y-o-y as well. Again, Swedish exposure proved beneficial; EBITA derived in Sweden more than doubled. On a group level, EBITA grew 7% y-o-y (or closer to 20%, adjusting for the accounting effect in shipping). Balance sheet allows further expansion Q4 was the second consecutive quarter in which Svedbergs Group exceeded its 15% EBITA margin target in LTM terms. The company states that this is now to be regarded a floor, and has not raised its targets. The reason given is that this would exclude potential attractive M&A targets from consideration. On this topic, Svedbergs Group's ND/EBITDA ex. IFRS-16 is 0.3x by Q4'26e. It furthermore hinted at a potential cash release from the pending sale of a Roper Rhodes warehouse, which could provide additional M&A firepower. Trading at 12x '26e EBITA Svedbergs Group is currently trading at 12x our '26e EBITA or 16x our '26e P/E. This can be compared to its L5Y multiples of 9x and 11x NTM, respectively, or a Nordic peer group P/E around 14x. We note that M&A has resulted in a materially larger company, which allows for larger institutional interest as well as lower risk due to a more geographically diverse business. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/2/svedbergs-group---project-market-showing-recovery/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/2/svedbergs-group---project-market-showing-recovery/ Wed, 04 Feb 2026 21:45:06 GMT SE0000407991 Analys Net sales SEK 557m, +5% vs ABGSCe, +4% vs Factset cons. EBITA SEK 87m, +10% vs ABGSCe, +7% vs cons Outlook: gradually better market Q4 in brief: Better across all markets Our impression is that Svedbergs Group's Q4'25 report is better than Factset consensus estimates overall. The Group reports net sales of SEK 557m, for organic growth of 10% y-o-y. This is +5% vs ABGSCe and +4% vs cons. Looking closer at the three largest segments, Svedbergs grew 19%, Roper Rhodes by -4% (+6.5% org.) and Thebalux by 6% (11% org.), which means the deviation to our sales estimate was driven by Svedbergs and Thebalux. All segments delivered positive org. growth and all except Roper Rhodes deliered an improved margin y-o-y. Roper Rhodes' margin decline was driven by a positive margin impact from freight provisions in the comparable quarter, and was expected. Gross margins grew -50bp y-o-y to 47.2%, the freight provisions explain the decline in full according to our understanding. Despite the softer gross margin, EBITA margins expanded 40bp y-o-y, for EBITA of SEK 87, +10% vs ABGSCe and +7% vs cons. This is partly due to a strong margin development in the Svedbergs brand, which improved 5pp y-o-y. Svedbergs' board has proposed a dividend per share of SEK 2, just shy of 50% of '25 EPS, which can be compared to our DPS forecast of SEK 1.75 (based on a 50% payout ratio as well). Outlook: Looks forward to a gradually better market In the Q3 report, Svedbergs Group said the current market climate remained uncertain but manageable, and we assessed that the message was of a delayed recovery driven by this uncertainty. In Q4, it says that while the market outlook is still uncertain, it looks forward to a gradual market improvement during the year. The share is trading at 11x-10x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA The share has returned 8% L3M, and is now trading at 11x-10x our '26e-'27e EV/EBITA vs a historical trading range of 7x-11x NTM. The Q4 report moves consensus' '25e EBITA by 2%.... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/2/svedbergs-group---q4-sweden-shows-strength/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/2/svedbergs-group---q4-sweden-shows-strength/ Wed, 04 Feb 2026 07:30:05 GMT SE0000407991 Analys Continued soft demand and hourly prices '26e-'27e EBITA down 3% Trading at ~5x NTM EV/EBITA, ~30% below peers Expectations for Q4'25 B3 Consulting Group will publish its Q4'25 report on 19 February. We expect sales of SEK 343m, implying 2% y-o-y growth, which is supported by M&A, although held back a little by an organic decline of 3% and FX headwinds. This is in line with the market data, suggesting continued soft demand and a negative net recruitment trend across the IT consulting market. We also expect EBITA of SEK 16m, corresponding to a margin of 4.6%. We have cut Q4e EBITA by roughly 20%. One half of the cut is due to slightly lower sales on account of somewhat weaker demand, and the other is due to a slightly weaker profitability profile that is due to a continually weak operating environment for IT consultants. Estimates down slightly For '26e, we expect demand conditions to remain muted, with relatively low visibility. That said, hourly prices are unlikely to remain a headwind, and net recruitment is now more likely to turn positive. Therefore, we cut '26e-'27e sales by 3-2% and EBITA by ~3%. Pricing discussions have resumed, although we expect hourly rate increases to materialise only once demand improves, likely in late 2026. Valuation On our revised estimates, B3 is trading just above 5x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~30% below current peer multiples. In addition, the company is trading ~35% below its historical EV/FTE multiple, indicating that it is currently expected to generate lower earnings per consultant than historically. We continue to view the current margin weakness as cyclical rather than structural, and not representative of a steady-state margin for the next five years. The near-term outlook for IT consultants continues to be soft, but we see potential for improvement in H2'26 due to positive net recruitment and an environment in which hourly prices don't decline. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2026/2/b3-consulting-group---higher-chance-of-positive-net-recruitment-in-26/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2026/2/b3-consulting-group---higher-chance-of-positive-net-recruitment-in-26/ Tue, 03 Feb 2026 22:00:06 GMT SE0008347660 Analys Q4 growth partly offset by SMS volumes Raising EBITA by 7-6% for '26e-'27e 11-9x EV/EBITA on '26e-'27e, ~20% below historical median Softer quarter due to volumes Generic reports its Q4'25 on 12 February, and we expect sales of SEK 50m, representing 4% y-o-y growth, driven by continued DOCS momentum, although held back a little by softer SMS volumes and macro sensitivity. We expect gross profit of SEK 22m, implying a gross margin of 44%. We expect EBIT of SEK 11m, a margin of 22%, affected by somewhat higher personnel cost expectation s related to recent management and organisational changes. Stabilising growth but increasing gross margin in '26e-'27e For Q4e, we keep sales flat but raise EBITA by ~10%. Following a softer 2025, marked by pricing pressure and increased competition across the sector, we expect sales growth to pick up in '26e-'27e. Generic operates with 22 employees, resulting in one of the highest sales per employee among Swedish tech peers, which we see as supportive of further operating leverage. We expect an EBIT margin of ~23-24% in '26e-'27e, driven by platform scalability, growing SaaS revenue and continued cost discipline. Trading below its historical EV/EBITA Generic is currently trading at 11-9x on '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~20% below its historical median. DOCS remains a growth and margin driver, with continued penetration among municipalities, with potential upside from new verticals and pricing over time. RCS is generating customer interest but is in an early rollout phase, with little-to-no adoption so far. We are waiting for Apple to enable RCS in the Nordics, which should allow for better margins over time. Overall, as Generic continues to selectively invest in its platform and security, while maintaining cost discipline, it should support higher EBIT margins over time. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/generic/Equity-research/2026/2/generic---margins-over-volumes/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/generic/Equity-research/2026/2/generic---margins-over-volumes/ Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:15:06 GMT SE0001790791 Analys Mixed Q4 but continued operational leverage Estimates down on adj. EBIT for '26e-'27e (larger loss) Fair value range down to SEK 7-14 (9-14) Lower sales but improving quality of earnings OssDsign reported a mixed Q4, with sales below expectations but profitability and cost discipline continuing to improve. Sales were SEK 45.1m (-5% vs. ABGSCe of SEK 47.3m), corresponding to organic growth of 24% (ABGSCe 27%). H2'25 sales were negatively impacted by a slower pace of recruiting and onboarding of sales representatives, which now has been addressed. Adj. EBIT came in at SEK -9.4m (-2% vs. ABGSCe of SEK -9.2m), driven by lower sales, as both the gross margin and opex developed better than expected. The gross margin strengthened to 96.3% (ABGSCe 95.5%), while sales commissions and fees declined to 47.6% of sales (ABGSCe 51.5%), which we view as positive. EBIT was distorted by SEK 12m in one-off CEO transition costs booked as NRI. OCF was SEK -16.9m, but SEK -8.9m adjusted for one-offs, which we find reasonable given the current sales ramp-up. Estimate changes The company reiterated its mid-term targets of sales >SEK 400m by 2028 and positive EBIT and cash flow in the second half of the strategy period, while providing no FY'26 guidance. Importantly, we believe that with a new US-based CEO in place, OssDsign can accelerate sales in the US according to plan and focus on continued operational improvements. Following Q4, we see no material change to the case, leaving our operational assumptions largely intact, while updating FX. Fair value range down to SEK 7-14 (9-14) We continue to believe that OssDsign will be able to ramp up Catalyst sales in the US and drive solid organic growth and turn profitable over time. Nonetheless, based on our revisions, we lower our fair value range to SEK 7-14 (9-14) on the Q4 report. We derive our fair value range using a DCF with a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 8.5%. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2026/2/ossdsign---scaling-towards-profitability/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2026/2/ossdsign---scaling-towards-profitability/ Tue, 03 Feb 2026 16:45:06 GMT SE0012570448 Analys 24% organic sales growth in Q4 (ABGSCe +27%) Adj. EBIT -2 % vs ABGSCe No change in outlook Q4 results OssDs ign reported a mixed set of numbers in Q4 with lower sales but higher gross margin and good cost control. Q4 sales came in at SEK 45.1m (-5% vs ABGSCe SEK 47.3m, no consensus) and adj. EBIT of SEK -9.4m, -2% vs ABGSCe of -9.2m. The miss on adj. EBIT is attributable to lower sales as core opex came in better and gross was higher at 96.3% in Q4 (vs ABGSCe 95.5%). We are pleased to see that the 'sales and commission and fees' as percentage of sales continues to come down, was 47.6% in Q4 vs ABGSCe at 51.5%). Q4 reported EBIT was negatively impacted by CEO transition costs of SEK 12m (ABGSCe SEK 0m), booked as NRI. Organic sales growth in Q4 amounted to 24% (ABGSCe 27%). Webcast at 11.00 CET today, link: https://www.finwire.tv/webcast/ossdsign/q4-2025/ Estimates Company is not providing any outlook for 2026 or changing its mid-term financial targets of reaching sales of SEK >400m by 2028 and to become cash flow and EBIT positive in the s econd half of its 'Strategy Period' (2025-2028). Based on the deviation on adj EBIT in Q4, we expect FY'26e adj. EBIT to be revised down by mid- to high single digit. Share price view The stock has been soft into Q4, down 2-3% (-5d) and down weak YTD (-15%). Based on the miss on sales and deviation on adj EBIT, we expect to see a small negative share price reaction in similar magnitude as the estimated earnings revisions. Q4 deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2026/2/ossdsign---lower-sales-but-higher-gross-margin/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2026/2/ossdsign---lower-sales-but-higher-gross-margin/ Tue, 03 Feb 2026 06:30:04 GMT SE0012570448 Analys Strong Q4 on the cards: EBIT SEK 41m (SEK -18m Q4'24) Slightly lowered Q4 assumptions, but '26e-'27e EBIT +7-5% Still not at full capacity: 21x 2026e EV/EBIT Strong backlog bodes well for Q4e Following the SEK 1bn breakthrough order with the Swedish FMV in May, both Q2 and Q3 were strong quarters. We expect this trend to continue in Q4 given that the FMV order reached a normalised level by the end of Q3. While the US situation remains unclear (the US DoD has yet to extend its previous contract), other customers are more than compensating for this likely temporary loss. As such, we forecast Q4 sales of SEK 234m (+119% y-o-y), comprising SEK 169m in SATCOM sales and SEK 65m in terminal sales. On gross margins, we anticipate a negative impact on the sales mix due to the company's decision to transition the FMV contract to leased capacity, meaning that Ovzon-3 still has unsold capacity. Nevertheless, we see EBIT of SEK 41m, up from SEK -18m in Q4'24. We push some Q4e revenue into 2026e Following a quiet period in terms of orders, activity has recently increased, including a SEK 58m terminal order with FMV and an SEK 240m order with a European NATO customer. The latter is particularly significant, as it supports our 2026 estimates and diversifies the customer base, arguably putting pressure on other customer prospects to sign up to Ovzon-3, where current capacity is limited. However, the order does not contribute to Q4e, so we cut '25e EBIT by 7% but lift '26e-'27e by 7-5%. We would also like to highlight that Ovzon has benefited from the recent USD/SEK trends given the recent sales mix change. Positive momentum continues 2025 has been an eventful year for Ovzon, with several highlights: 1) the signing of the SEK 1bn breakthrough order; 2) the refinancing of its debt (interest rates have been lowered from ~15% to ~4.5%); 3) a more diversified customer base; and 4) becoming profitable in terms of both EBIT and FCF. The stock is trading at 21x '26e ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/2/ovzon---orders-stacking-up-for-another-strong-year/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/2/ovzon---orders-stacking-up-for-another-strong-year/ Mon, 02 Feb 2026 20:15:04 GMT SE0010948711 Analys Q4 NAV in line with ABGSCe Strong operational performance in key private assets P/NAV lower, discount well above 5Y average Green Landscaping held back NAV again Byggmästaren reported Q4 NAVPS of SEK 67, in line with our estimate. NAV declined 2%, mainly due to weak Q4 performance in Green Landscaping, which also weighed on total NAV and TSR in 2025. Excluding Green Landscaping, the portfolio gained close to 14%, with Safe Life the largest contributor. Q4 TSR was +2% (SIXRX +6%), as the NAV discount narrowed from 11% to 8%. The proposed DPS of SEK 0.70 was in line with our estimate and prior guidance. Activity remained high in Q4, including additional investments in Green Landscaping and DPP, an extraordinary dividend of SEK 8/share, an extension of the buyback programme, and the announced divestment of Ge-Te Media. Byggmästaren retains a sizeable net cash position, and we expect further cash inflows during 2026. Private assets: valuations broadly stable Private asset valuations were largely unchanged in Q4, with small increases in DPP, Ge-Te Media, and Team Olivia, partly offset by a minor, FX-driven decline in Safe Life. Safe Life had an active quarter, completing four acquisitions and delivering 67% total growth in 2025, primarily M&A-driven, with a pro forma EBITA margin of 10.2%. DPP continued to perform well, reporting 2025 sales of SEK 61m and EBITDA of SEK 10m. Production capacity has increased materially following the new factory build, and demand remains strong. Fasticon is seeing gradually improving market conditions. 14% NAV discount well above historical average The shares are trading at a 14% discount to NAV, compared with an 8% five-year average. Valuation is therefore low relative to most relevant peers, despite the group’s strong long-term track record. We adjust our fair value range to SEK 56-67 (60-90 adjusted for split), mainly reflecting our discontinued coverage of Green Landscaping. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Equity-research/2026/2/byggmastaren---private-assets-performing-valuation-discounted/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Equity-research/2026/2/byggmastaren---private-assets-performing-valuation-discounted/ Mon, 02 Feb 2026 10:45:04 GMT SE0006510491 Analys Underlying performance indicative of a brighter '26e '26e-'27e adj. EBITA up 5% Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 8x Solid underlying performance boosted by NRIs Q4 came in above expectations on all key items, but was especially strong on adj. EBIT (29% above our estimate) despite a modest beat of 2% on sales. The majority of the EBIT beat stemmed from NRI's of SEK -6m as opex was in line with expectations and the GM was a tad higher (0.5pp) than anticipated. The organic growth (0.7%) was driven by consumer brands (6%), but offset by B2B sales (-13%) and licenced brands (-15%). The health food category has been affected by a change to centralised distribution (previously direct) for one brand, which is now finished. Moreover, sales were continuously affected by the termination of distribution agreements and the fire in Spain. Positive estimate revisions on efficiency improvements We raise '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 5% and leave our sales estimates largely unchanged after the report. We believe that organic growth in '26e can accelerate as comps will be lighter following the phasing out of unprofitable contracts and lower production cadence in the production that was impacted by the fire in Spain. However, we have yet to see any material improvements in the market and therefore keep our '26e-'27e organic growth assumptions cautious at ~3% p.a. We slightly lower our opex assumptions as the costs to achieve the restructuring programme have been revised down to SEK >10m. Our 5% '27e EBIT margin is below the targeted 8%, implying that management sees additional margin upside. We see additional, value-accretive capital allocation opportunities as the company's leverage ratio continues to come down. Implied valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~8x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~35% below current peer multiples. We note that peers, in turn, are trading ~10% below their 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2026/2/midsona---brighter-days-ahead/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2026/2/midsona---brighter-days-ahead/ Mon, 02 Feb 2026 07:15:04 GMT SE0000565228 Analys 2025 to end on a soft note We cut '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2-4% Trading at 10-7x EV/EBITA for '26e-'27e A soft quarter awaits Note this report was republished on 2 February due to a modelling error. The main changes are to historical and estimated EPS and DPS. The most notable is that 2025e EPS goes from SEK 5.31 to SEK 5.18 . Prevas will release its Q4 report on 10 February. We expect a soft quarter, shaped by ongoing market uncertainty. Our sales estimate is SEK 430m, an organic decline of 1%, affected by slightly negative net recruitments and impacted by higher number of staff on holiday leave. Recent data from the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (Swe: KI) still points to weak demand and pressure on hourly rates, meaning that technical consulting market continues to face headwinds. For Q4,we expect EBITA of SEK 29m (6.9% margin). Cutting EBITA by 8% for Q4e For the reasons above, we keep sales flat but cut EBITA by 8% for Q4e. For '26e-'27e, we cut EBITA by 2-4%. The market is still challenging, with low visibility and little pricing power in many segments. However, Prevas has made adjustments in areas with lower demand, and we believe they will continue to do so. We remain cautious on Denmark (~10% of total sales), were several companies (e.g. Novo Nordisk, Siemens, Vestas) have reduced their use of consultants and laid off employees , resulting in lower demand in the region. Trading at 10-7x EV/EBITA, ~15% below peers Based on our revised estimates, Prevas is trading at 10-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~15% below the peer average. The company is trading ~25% above its historical EV/EBITA multiple. While the current environment continues to be challenging, we believe the company has a strong foundation for the future. Prevas has a solid position in engineering, defence and energy, where demand should hold up. Cost actions are already underway, and utilisation should slow... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2026/1/prevas---a-cautious-close-to-2025/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2026/1/prevas---a-cautious-close-to-2025/ Fri, 30 Jan 2026 15:45:09 GMT SE0000356008 Analys Adj. EBIT 29% above estimates at SEK 47m '26e could bring both organic and structural growth Consensus EBIT revisions likely up h.s.d. Q4'25 report The Q4 report was materially better than expected on adj. EBIT. Sales amounted to SEK 933m (2% vs ABGSC 918m), for an organic growth of 0.7% (1.7pp vs ABGSC -1%). Adj. EBIT came in at SEK 47m (29% vs ABGSC 36m), for a margin of 5% (1pp vs ABGSC 4%). Sales were driven by Midsona's own consumer brands (6% y-o-y). Licensed brands showed growth of -15%, partly on terminated distribution agreements. B2B sales in North Europe were weak as Midsona is changing its product range, which was positive for earnings. The adj. gross margin of 29% was 0.6pp above our estimate. Adj. EBIT was better than expected, as Midsona has successfully started to implement its cost savings initiative and an improved product mix, with its own brands in focus. Free cash flow (ex. M&A) was also strong at SEK 144m (vs. ABGSCe 70m) due to higher than expected release in NWC (SEK 74m vs. ABGSCe 31m) and a positive capex effect of SEK 3m due to a SEK 10m tangible divestment. Thoughts and outlook The CEO comments on tendencies of stabilisation in consumer households, but the optimism is muted by comments on uncertainties in the world. We are encouraged by the growth in its own consumer brands and believe that the underlying solid growth and profitability improvements are indicative of a brighter '26e, as the market hopefully improves and Midsona continues to strengthen its profitability. Moreover, a return to both organic and structural growth is mentioned, as well as a robust balance sheet, and the possibility for future M&A therefore does not seem unlikely. Likely positive consensus EBIT estimate revisions The share, which is has been strong into numbers, is trading at ~8x-6x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA on our unrevised estimates. Our initial understanding of the report as well as a mechanical calculation suggest that consensus' adj... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2026/1/midsona---closing-the-year-in-style-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2026/1/midsona---closing-the-year-in-style-/ Fri, 30 Jan 2026 07:45:05 GMT SE0000565228 Analys Q4e sales SEK 45m (58m), adj. EBIT SEK 10m (19m) We cut '26e-'27e sales and EBIT by 10% and 22-19%, respectively Lowered growth assumptions for CMP Tough comps in Q4e We estimate Q4 sales of SEK 45m, -23% y-o-y (-12% organic, -11% FX). I-Tech is facing tough comps in the quarter, as Q4'24 was a particularly strong quarter for the company (sales +129% y-o-y). We foresee slightly higher costs in the quarter due to year-end bonuses and on adj. EBIT we estimate SEK 9m (19m) for a margin of 21% (32%). We lower our '26e-'27e growth assumptions We lower '26e-'27e sales and EBIT by 10% and 22-19%, respectively. While we continue to expect I-Tech to increase its market share driven by growth among its existing customers, we now assume that the impact of a key customer’s reduced planned volumes (due to financial constraints) will be more prolonged than previously anticipated. Furthermore, we adopt a more cautious growth assumption for CMP in '26e-'27e compared to the strong growth seen in '24 (+20%) given the uncertainty of the timing of additional CMP product launches. We now forecast a '25e-'27e sales growth CAGR of 14% (vs. previously +20%). Moreover, we have updated our FX forecasts, which indicate an FX headwind of -9% in '26e (previously -5%). Remain positive on long-term prospects In November '25, the company announced that the European Commission had drafted a proposal for the non-renewal of Selektope. We believe it is likely that the draft will be approved, but we remain positive on the company's long-term outlook given its small exposure to the EU market (~3% of sales). That said, there is always a risk that a ban could have a negative impact on I-Tech's attempts to enter other markets, such as the US (although this is a small market), or on re-application processes in regions where it has already achieved approval (most importantly Japan, South Korea, China). The company is trading at 9x-6x EV/EBIT on '26e-'27e, and 14x-10x P/E, i.e. ~... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2026/1/i-tech---no-easy-lap-into-q4e/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2026/1/i-tech---no-easy-lap-into-q4e/ Thu, 29 Jan 2026 08:30:05 GMT SE0011167725 Analys 27% y-o-y organic sales growth in Q4'25e No change to financial targets expected Q4'25 resu lts due 3 February Q4'25 expectations We believe OssDsign will continue to deliver solid sales growth for Catalyst in the US and pencil in 27% organic growth. With Q3 impacted by a larger order pulled forward into Q2, negatively impacting the q-o-q comparison, we expect Q4 to show a clearer picture of underlying demand and improved q-o-q performance. We continue to expect management to prioritise a sales ramp-up, driving higher costs related to the build-out of the US sales force, which should have a short-term negative impact on EBIT as opex increases. Nonetheless, we view this as encouraging, as broader commercial coverage should support continued hospital additions and further expansion of the surgeon base using Catalyst, which we expect the new CEO to accelerate even further going forward. In total, we forecast sales of SEK 47.3m and EBIT of SEK 5.5m, with a gross margin of 95.5%. Estimate changes Ahead of Q4, we fi ne-tune our operational assumptions and update FX, leading us to lower EBIT by SEK 2.0-4.7m for ’25e-’27e, equal to -8.5% to -43.9%. We forecast 46% organic sales growth in FY’25e, somewhat below our previous estimate of 47%, while leaving our organic sales growth assumptions of 30% unchanged for FY’26e-’27e. Fair value range down to SEK 9-14 (10-17) We revise our fair value range, based on our updated forecasts, to SEK 9-14 (10-17) ahead of the Q4 results. Our fair value range is derived from a DCF model, applying a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 10%. While near-term earnings remain impacted by FX and continued commercial investments, we see meaningful long-term potential, supported by sustained US adoption of Catalyst, high gross margins, and increasing operating leverage as the sales base scales. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2026/1/ossdsign---fx-drag-masks-solid-growth/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2026/1/ossdsign---fx-drag-masks-solid-growth/ Wed, 28 Jan 2026 16:30:06 GMT SE0012570448 Analys Strong orders should continue to convert into sales growth (17%) Enedo stabilising as comps ease and cost savings take effect Earnings recovery: EPS from SEK 3.0 in '25e to SEK 5.2 in '27e Q4 expectations Supported by the strong R12m book-to-bill of 1.18x, we expect the sales growth seen in Q3 (14%) to accelerate further in Q4, forecasting 17% (8% from M&A). The majority of the growth will come from the Inission segment, but the comps in Enedo have now started to ease substantially, and we therefore expect its y-o-y comparison to start stabilising in Q4, especially given the segment's YTD book-to-bill of 1.3x. We estimate a group adj. EBITA margin of 6.4% (5.2%), after adjusting for SEK 3.5m (0.6pp) in restructuring costs in Enedo, which we expect to be the last charges taken. Estimate changes We cut '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2%, purely as a result of updated FX rates. Outlook and valuation With strong organic growth in the Inission segment, and a clear path to profitability in Enedo given the implemented cost-saving measures and strong book-to-bill in the segment (management expects a return to profitability in Q1), we forecast a significant earnings recovery in the coming two years, as adj. EPS looks set to go from SEK 3.0 in '25e to SEK 4.6/5.2 in '26e/'27e. The share is currently trading at 11x-9x '26e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 13x-9x and peers at 15x-13x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2026/1/inission---we-expect-growth-to-accelerate-further-in-q4/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2026/1/inission---we-expect-growth-to-accelerate-further-in-q4/ Tue, 27 Jan 2026 14:30:05 GMT SE0016275069 Analys We forecast sales -27% y-o-y, driven by EEs -13% and FX -9% Substantial market weakness, tough comps & FX headwinds in '25e Pent-up demand, programme starts & installations bode well for '26e Q4 expectations With the automotive market still experiencing demand challenges, we expect engine equivalent production of 2.7m, in line with Q3 but down 13% y-o-y. We forecast strong installation revenue of SEK 4.9m, bringing the full-year figure to SEK 10m as guided for by the company, but this faces even stronger comps of SEK 6.8m. All-in-all we estimate a 27% decline in revenue y-o-y, with the weakening USD constituting a 9% headwind. With the cost base largely unchanged and an estimated margin effect from hedges of +2.2pp (-6.3pp), this results in an EBIT margin of 20.9% (26.5%). Estimate changes We cut '26e-'27e sales by 6% and EBIT by 11-12%, almost exclusively driven by the weakened USD/SEK exchange rate. Outlook and valuation 2025 was a year of substantial market headwinds and tough comps, given the production programme that reached end of life in Q3'24, amplified further by the drastically weakened USD vs. the SEK, as all of SinterCast's sales are USD denominated; however, pent-up demand for truck fleet renewal as well as delayed programme starts and strong installation activity bode well for a return to growth in 2026e. We forecast EPS growth of 16% and 32% over the coming two years, leaving the company trading at P/E 24-18x on '26e-'27e. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2026/1/sintercast---market-weakness-and-fx-still-major-headwinds/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2026/1/sintercast---market-weakness-and-fx-still-major-headwinds/ Tue, 27 Jan 2026 09:30:05 GMT SE0000950982 Analys Impairments of ~SEK 240m in Q4 Preliminary Q4 EBIT of ~SEK -315m (vs. ABGSCe 70m) Total '25-'27 EBIT target of SEK 1,400m withdrawn Recognises impairments of projects This morning, Eolus announced that it will recognise project impairment charges of ~SEK 240m in Q4, driven by changes in market conditions. Around two-thirds of the total relates to offshore wind projects (SEK 166m), with the remainder attributable to onshore wind projects (SEK 74m). Of the onshore impairments, SEK 35m relates to Sweden, SEK 30m to Finland, and SEK 9m to the US. As a result, Eolus’ offshore wind project portfolio will decrease from 8,800 MW to 1,000 MW. Preliminary results for Q4, EBIT of SEK -315m Alongside the announcement, Eolus released preliminary Q4 figures showing EBIT of SEK -315m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 70m). The lower EBIT is mostly explained by the impairments. In addition, we note that Eolus in December announced the divestment of its onshore wind projects Dållebo, Boarp and Fågelås (88 MW), which the company writes had a limited net impact on the P&L. This suggests that realised project margins were lower than we had expected (ABGSC SEK 132m). Total EBIT '25-'27 target withdrawn Due to the impact of the impairment losses, the Board has decided to withdraw its total '25-'27 EBIT target of at least SEK 1,400m (vs. FY25 EBIT of SEK -310m). https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Equity-research/2026/1/eolus---impairments-revised-targets-and-q4-prelims/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Equity-research/2026/1/eolus---impairments-revised-targets-and-q4-prelims/ Tue, 27 Jan 2026 08:45:04 GMT SE0007075056 Analys Softer Q4 numbers due to postponed orders... ...but we raise EBITDA ~65% for '26e-'27e after recent defence order Avg. of ~13-11x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, ~30% below peers Softer Q4e due to market conditions and postponed orders Clavister will report its Q4'25 on 12 February. We expect SEK 64m in sales, implying y-o-y growth of 8%, driven by solid underlying business in the civilian segment (although partly held back by a generally more cautious IT investment environment currently), which we expect to improve. As announced before, the defence business is affected by supplier issues, which we believe will continue near term. These are timing-related rather than driven by demand, leading to delays that we think should be realised at the beginning of H1'26. We expect SEK 8m in EBITDA, with 13% margins in Q4. We raise EBITDA by ~65% for '26e-'27e Looking ahead, for '26e-'27e we raise sales by ~30% and EBITDA by ~65% due to the recent ~SEK 280m order ( link ) from Norwegian defence. This means that '26e-'27e EBITDA increases from ~SEK 70m-95m to ~SEK 120m-150m. Aiming for a profitable 2026 Clavister has spent the most recent years addressing structural challenges, including a high cost base and financing costs. With operating costs now materially reduced and the EIB financing fully resolved, the company enters 2026 in a fundamentally different position. The defence business continues to build its order backlog (NTM planned deliveries of SEK 93m, from the Q3'25 report), which will rise with the recent Norwegian order. We believe this shift in mix, combined with improved cost discipline, will be a key driver of profitability in 2026. On our revised estimates, Clavister is trading at an average of 13-11x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, which is ~30% below its peers, and at an EV/EBIT of 13-10x for '26e-'27e. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2026/1/clavister---the-calm-before-the-upswing/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2026/1/clavister---the-calm-before-the-upswing/ Mon, 26 Jan 2026 08:30:02 GMT SE0005308558 Analys Q4 figures in line with pre-announcement We cut '26e-'27e sales by 6-5%, EBIT positive in '27e (prev. '26e) Targeting 2x Recycling sales in '26e vs. '25 Q4 results Nexam reported sales of SEK 43m (-11% y-o-y, -4% q-o-q), in line with pre-announced figures. The company witnessed a temporary build-up among its largest customer in High Temperature, impacting the quarter by SEK -4.5m. However, Reactive Recycling (~20% of sales in Q4'25) continues to be the clear growth driver, expanding by 250% y-o-y in Q4 and ~3x in FY'25 vs. FY'24. The company now has 26 paying customers in the segment and is targeting doubled sales in 2026 vs. 2025. Due to the lower-than-expected sales, EBIT was also lower at SEK -4m (vs. -2.5m LY). Estimate changes We lower '26e-'27e sales by 6-5% and '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 9m and 8m, respectively, on the back of the report. We forecast the company to grow sales at a CAGR of +13% in '25-'27e and to reach positive EBIT in '27e (previously '26e). Rights issue to accelerate Recycling scale-up Our long-term view of the company remains largely unchanged. In December '25, Nexam announced a fully guaranteed rights issue of SEK 51.8m (before costs of ~SEK 6.6m), with proceeds earmarked to accelerate the Recycling segment through initiatives such as expanding commercial reach and strengthening customer support. Management estimates an obtainable market of ~EUR 70m (on the assumption of 5% penetration in Europe and 2% elsewhere) vs. Recycling sales of ~EUR 2.2m in '25, implying substantial potential sales upside. The share has returned -32% L3M (vs. peers at -21%, OMXSALLS at +5%) and is currently trading at 1.1x-0.9x '26e-'27e EV/Sales. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nexam-chemical/Equity-research/2026/1/nexam-chemical---entering-the-next-phase-of-recycling/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nexam-chemical/Equity-research/2026/1/nexam-chemical---entering-the-next-phase-of-recycling/ Mon, 26 Jan 2026 08:12:13 GMT SE0005101003 Analys Q4 sales of SEK 43m (-11% y-o-y), in line with pre-announcement EBIT SEK -4m (vs. SEK -2.5m LY) Recycling continues to grow (FY'25 sales up ~3x vs. '24) Q4 results Nexam's Q4 sales were roughly in line with the pre-announced figures from 22 December, i.e. SEK 43m (vs. SEK 44m pre-announced), -11% y-o-y and -4% q-o-q. EBIT was SEK -4m (vs. -2.5m LY). The company states that Q4 was weaker than expected due to High Temperature, as its largest customer experienced an inventory build-up and did not place any orders during the quarter. Moreover, in Q4, Nexam announced that it is carrying out a rights issue of SEK 51.8m (~SEK 6.6m in costs), fully guaranteed. Proceeds are intended to accelerate Nexam’s commercial expansion within the Recycling business area and to strengthen financial flexibility. The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 12m. Estimate changes and outlook On numbers alone, '25-'27e sales, prior to the pre-announcement, is impacted negatively by ~5% and EBIT by SEK -4m (vs. FY'25e EBIT of SEK -9m). On outlook, the company expects continued strong momentum in Recycling and targets doubling Recycling sales in '26 vs. '25. Management also states that the High Temperature weakness is temporary, driven by inventory build-up at its largest customer; orders are already placed for every quarter in '26, with normalisation expected from Q1'26. Valuation Nexam is trading at '26e-'27e EV/Sales of 1.2x-1.0x on estimates prior to the pre-announcement, vs. peers at 1.4x-1.1x. The company will host a presentation of the Q4 results at 11:15 CET. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nexam-chemical/Equity-research/2026/1/nexam-chemical---q4-in-line-with-pre-announcement/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nexam-chemical/Equity-research/2026/1/nexam-chemical---q4-in-line-with-pre-announcement/ Fri, 23 Jan 2026 08:00:05 GMT SE0005101003 Analys Q4e: US stable with Germany improving sequentially U.S. EBIT raised 8% for '26e-'27e following US bolt-on Trading at 11-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT (peers at 16-14x) Q4e: US stable with Germany improving sequentially We expect Ferronordic to report Q4 net sales of SEK 1,081m, down 18% y-o-y, due to an inventory sell-off boosting top-line in Q4'24 as well as FX headwinds. We expect adj. EBIT of SEK 26m, rendering a margin of 2.4% (1.5% in Q4'24, 3.5% in Q3'25). Sequentially, we expect growth in Germany to be fairly muted given that PMIs remain sub-50. While we are cautious about extrapolating the Q3 gross margin (ATH 15.6%), we expect margins to remain resilient and operating profit to be broadly flat q-o-q. We expect the U.S. to remain fairly stable, while group-level EBIT comes down q-o-q following a normalisation of corporate overhead from Q3. Estimates raised on the back of the Housby acquisition We raise US '26e-'27e EBIT by 8%, mainly following the acquisition of the Housby's heavy equipment asset alongside the expected market recovery, which will be completed on 30 January. Given that it is an asset acquisition, Ferronordic will not inherit any internal corporate costs, since Housby's overhead will be moved to Rudd's HQ in Louisville. This should lead to an immediate margin expansion for Housby's operations. At the group level, we revise EBIT by 10-9% for '26e-'27e. Net profit increases ~21-24% in ’26e–’27e driven by lower net financials. 11-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT, M&A displays growing confidence We consider Ferronordic's display of acquisition capacity to be an unambiguously positive sign. It displays a growing confidence in the balance sheet, and while we believe that the near-term capacity for further bolt-ons is somewhat limited due to leverage (3.9x ND/EBITDA per Q3'25), we see potential for similar acquisitions from a longer-term perspective. Lastly, the share is trading at 11-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT, which can be compar... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Equity-research/2026/1/ferronordic---fundamentals-improving-under-the-hood/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Equity-research/2026/1/ferronordic---fundamentals-improving-under-the-hood/ Thu, 22 Jan 2026 20:15:05 GMT SE0005468717 Analys Mild winter in Q4, but sequentially easing comps: organic growth -1% Cost savings took effect in Q3, expect y-o-y margin up 0.6pp to 8.9% Winter cold hit around 1 January, supports return to growth in Q1 Q4 expectations The winter in Q4 was very mild, which is negative for Alligo due to demand for important product categories such as hydraulics and winter clothing correlating inversely with temperature. However, the winter in the comparison period was also very mild, and given unchanged underlying demand q-o-q and a sequential easing of comparative figures, this leads us to forecast organic growth of -1% vs. -3% in Q3. On the adj. EBITA margin, we expect a y-o-y improvement to 8.9% (8.3%) due to the cost savings that took effect in Q3. Estimate changes We only fine-tune our '26-'27 estimates, trimming adj. EBITA by 2%, half of which is due to FX. Outlook & valuation Investors are still awaiting the announcement of a successor to outgoing CEO Clein Ullenvik, but in the meantime, cold winter weather hit the Nordics properly around 1 January, boding well for our forecast of a return to organic growth in Q1 (3%) for the first time in 11 quarters. This should support our full-year estimate of 4.5% organic growth, which in turn enables margin expansion from 6.4% to 7.4%, as the drop-through on new volumes should be high. The share is currently trading at a '26e-'27e P/E of 14-11x, and we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 110-200. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2026/1/alligo---winter-timing-means-growth-must-wait-until-q1/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2026/1/alligo---winter-timing-means-growth-must-wait-until-q1/ Thu, 22 Jan 2026 16:45:09 GMT SE0009922305 Analys AI should drive data storage demand, but RAM prices are an issue Small reductions to estimates, adj. EBITA -1-2% 2025-27e Share trading at 8.9x EV/EBITA 2026e Rising memory prices Dustin reported it's Q1’26 report in mid-January, and the hot topic was the rising memory prices ( up 2-4x last six months ) and potential price increases of 15-30% on laptops holding back volumes. During the last component shortage situation in 2022, the correlation between Proact and Dustin in was relatively good, and we expect to see some potential headwinds for Proact in 2026e due to potential price increases on storage (system sales). The Dutch and German markets do not show signs of improvement, which means that further cost actions are likely to be taken to improve margins given the current negative growth momentum in units West and Central. Comps in Q4 are relatively easy, as last year was weak, and we therefore expect 3% organic growth alongside adj. EBITA of SEK 69m (5.4% margin vs 6.3% last year), down 14% y-o-y. Estimate changes We make small negative revisions due to continued cautioun on a quick system sales recovery due to rising memory prices, as well as still-muted peer performance; FX updates, meanwhile, have a slight positive impact. All in all, we revise adj EBITA by -1-2% in 2025-27e. Valuation The performance range within the sector (IT hardware providers) is spreading a bit, with Dustin performing more weakly (-24% last three months) and Atea stronger (+10%). This can also be compared to the Swedish technology index, which has underperformed the broader market by -20% over the last three months, with software leading the underperformance. On our updated numbers, the share trades at 7.3x EV/EBITA 2026e, 35% below peers. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/1/proact---rise-in-memory-prices-creates-some-caution/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/1/proact---rise-in-memory-prices-creates-some-caution/ Thu, 22 Jan 2026 13:45:06 GMT SE0015961222 Analys Q4e sales SEK 22m (21m), EBIT adj. SEK -5.5m (-6.9m) We expect NW&FT to start showing early signs of recovery Trading at '26e-'27e EV/Sales 2.2x-2.0x Q4 expectations For Q4, we estimate sales of SEK 22m, +2% y-o-y and -3% q-o-q (NW&FT: +7% y-o-y, GC&MP: +2% y-o-y, FW: -4% y-o-y). We expect NW&FT to show signs of recovery in Q4 after seven quarters of negative growth . There are signs of improvement in the hotel and restaurant market, which should support a stabilisation for OrganoClick’s largest NW&FT customer. For GC&MP, we expect customer inventories to start to normalise, with a return to slight growth after two quarters of declines. For FW, Q4 is a small quarter, but we expect continued weakness in the Swedish construction market but for the German market to continue to offset this weakness to some extent. On EBIT adj. we estimate SEK -5.5m (-6.8m), adjusted for SEK -5m in structural costs that will be taken in the quarter. Estimate changes and outlook We lower '26e-'27e sales by 1% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 2m. Supported by improving end-markets and new product launches, and with OrganoClick’s cost-saving programme (SEK ~18m savings annually) set to take effect from Q1’26, we expect the company to reach positive EBIT in 2027. Valuation OrganoClick is currently trading at 2.2x-2.0x '25e-'27e EV/Sales vs. peers at 2.1x-1.3x. We remain convinced of a sales recovery in '26e, driven by improvements in NW&FT and GC&MP. However, we think the company needs to demonstrate improved profitability to mitigate the long-term liquidity risk. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Equity-research/2026/1/organoclick---expecting-to-see-early-signs-of-recovery/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Equity-research/2026/1/organoclick---expecting-to-see-early-signs-of-recovery/ Thu, 22 Jan 2026 09:30:05 GMT SE0006510335 Analys We cut 2025e sales by SEK 21m, reflecting no machine deliveries Rights issue of ~SEK 26.6m and working capital needs reduced Market uncertainty persists, waiting for machine orders Q4 expectations We expect Q4 sales of SEK 16m (42m), with no announced orders in the quarter, implying R12m sales of SEK 49m (110m). The revenue contribution is expected to come from Coatings Services and Aftermarket. On EBIT we estimate SEK -10m (-4m). During the quarter Impact received its final outcome of its right issue, with total subscriptions amounting to ~SEK 26.6m, before costs. Although only 30.4% of the rights issue was subscribed to, the company announced that it had entered into a new metal supply agreement, which is expected to reduce working capital needs by up to SEK 30m. Estimate changes and outlook We lower '25e sales by SEK 21m, as no machine deliveries were made during the quarter. However, we raise our '26e-'27e sales by 5-4% due to increasing momentum in Coating Services. Impact Coatings expects to sell systems within all four of its application areas (Energy, Automotive, Electronics, and Luxury Goods), indicating System sales of SEK 80-100m in '26. However, due to continued market uncertainty, we remain cautious, and we expect two machine deliveries for '26e. Waiting for System orders While we find it positive that there has been positive momentum in Coating Services, we believe a recovery in System sales is necessary to mitigate the company’s long-term liquidity risk. The company is currently trading at 2.1x-1.8x '26e-'27e EV/sales. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2026/1/impact-coatings---engines-warmed-waiting-for-orders/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2026/1/impact-coatings---engines-warmed-waiting-for-orders/ Wed, 21 Jan 2026 16:45:07 GMT SE0001279142 Analys Rottneros Q4 EBITDA of SEK -180m vs. our SEK -80m Challenging markets for Rottneros and Arctic Paper Far-sighted is better than myopic Rottneros PW: "Significantly weaker" Q4 Late yesterday evening, Rottneros published a profit warning. The company now estimates Q4 EBITDA of SEK -180m, which compares to our estimate of SEK -80m and SEK 10m in Q4'24. Rottneros comments on a continued weak market and lower realised prices. Lower pulpwood costs has materialised in the P&L, however not enough to counteract the lower pulp prices in SEK. The earlier implemented savings program is reportedly going according to plan, and had full impact during Q4 (annual savings of SEK 45m). Note that Q4 also was affected by maintenance at Vallvik (guided SEK 70-80m impact on income). Challenging markets for Rottneros and Arctic Paper The pulp market has suffered from increased uncertainty and geopolitical tensions the last year, but there's been a gradual improvement in data points for the sector recently (wood, pulp). Macro growth is weaker though. Wood costs will drop into '26 on the back of higher stocks. Nordic pulpwood prices are down 20-25% since the peak in mid-'25. Suzano has hiked hardwood prices five times, or +20%. Our in-house pulp price models point up for '26 due to a better utilisation rate (89%) and a weaker USD. Chinese integrated pulp capacity could cap the upside though when prices rise above the cash cost levels in China. The paper market is more problematic due to weak utilisation rates vs historical averages. Paper is at 75-80% vs 89% (there are 4% supply cuts in '26, but we need 3 mill t cuts to get back to the historical level). Far-sighted is better than myopic The market will remain challenging for some time, but far-sighted is better than myopic. The P&P market has its short term issues, but pulp prices are already below the marginal producers' cash cost (typically not long-lasting) and paper capacity cuts could fo... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2026/1/arctic-paper---more-paper-cuts-rottneros-profit-warning/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2026/1/arctic-paper---more-paper-cuts-rottneros-profit-warning/ Tue, 20 Jan 2026 07:45:06 GMT PLARTPR00012 Analys Q4'25 numbers due on 10 February at 07:45 CET Expect new targets on the reporting day, more info on 11 Feb Fair value range down to SEK 200-280 (220-300) Q4'25 expectations The end of 2025 should be characterised by a similar trend to Q3 for Medicover, with continued growth and further margin improvement, albeit at a more moderate pace. In HS, we forecast organic growth of 11% and an EBITDAaL margin of 11.4% in Q4, supported by continued strong performance in the Polish ambulatory and sport/wellness businesses, while improving utilisation across the network should remain supportive. Within DS, we pencil in organic growth of 11% and an EBITDAaL margin of 12.7%, as we believe Medicover should continue to navigate the German pricing reform effectively. Overall, this translates into total sales of EUR 616m, driven by 11% organic growth, and adj. EBITDA of EUR 95m, corresponding to a margin of 15.4%. Minor estimate changes and new targets Ahead of the Q4 results, we take a slightly more cautious stance on the sales outlook for the end of '25e and for '26e-'27e, but we believe continued margin expansions will protect earnings, and we take down adj. EBITDA by 1% for '26e-'27e. As Q4 marks the end of the current medium-term targets (2023-25), we expect Medicover to present new ones in conjunction with the report, with more information expected at the investor update on 11 February. On p.3-4, we take a look at previous targets and expect Medicover to guide for sales above EUR 3.3bn and adj. EBITDA above EUR 550m by the end of the new period 2026-28, while reiterating its leverage and dividend target. Fair value range down to SEK 200-280 (220-300) On the back of our estimate revisions and relative valuation, we lower our fair value range to SEK 200-280 (220-300). We derive our range from the trading multiples of two peer groups, one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/1/medicover---expect-to-see-new-targets/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2026/1/medicover---expect-to-see-new-targets/ Mon, 19 Jan 2026 20:00:04 GMT SE0009778848 Analys We forecast -3% EBITA growth in Q4'25 on a tough comp 8% EBITA growth shows resilience in tough 2025e We raise our fair value range to SEK 55-75 (50-66) We expect EBITA growth of -3% y-o-y Svedbergs Group meets the toughest EBITA growth comp of 2025 in its Q4, and the first organic growth comp in 10 quarters. We expect a slight deceleration to org. growth of 5% vs 7% in Q3'25, driven primarily by tougher comps in Roper Rhodes and soft market data: with one quarter left of the year CPA lowered its '25 RM&I growth forecasts for the UK market by 2pp. We expect further gross margin gains to be partly offset by further opex hikes related to increased sales efforts, just as in YTD Q3'25. We forecast EBITA of SEK 79m, -3% y-o-y, which corresponds to a financial targets-aligned 15% EBITA margin. We expect the Svedbergs Group board to propose a dividend of SEK 1.75 (SEK 1.5 for 2024), ~50% of our '25e EPS, in line with the payout ratio of last year. Ready for market recovery Despite clear FX headwinds, Svedbergs Group looks set to deliver 8% EBITA growth in '25e on 2% net sales growth. With the Dalstorp production facility upgraded, we expect strong Nordic incremental EBITA margins should primary housing markets start performing better. We have previously noted that the Swedish housing agency has estimated a need for ~twice the number of Swedish build starts. Without this recovery (or M&A) in our numbers, we forecast 6% EBITA growth in '26e. We raise fair value range to SEK 55-75 (50-66) The Svedbergs Group share has performed well in the last year, delivering a price return of ~70%, and is now trading at 11x '26e EBITA. We believe part of the reason is that Svedbergs' M&A agenda has resulted in a larger group, which allows for larger institutional interest in addition to lower risk due to a geographically diverse business. We adjust our fair value range to SEK 55-75 (50-66), corresponding to 9x-12x '26e EV/EBITA. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/1/svedbergs-group---scaling-up/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/1/svedbergs-group---scaling-up/ Mon, 19 Jan 2026 08:00:03 GMT SE0000407991 Analys Q4 results due on Thursday, 5 February Estimates up 2-4% organically, but neutralised by FX Margin expansion largely realised, now comes growth Q4 expectations We expect Nolato to report Q4 net sales of SEK 2,311m, down 3% y-o-y, of which +3% is organic growth and -6% from FX. We also expect both segments to contribute to significant y-o-y margin expansion, which similarly to prior quarters should be driven by improved pricing and utilisation rates. This amounts to an estimated EBITA of SEK 275m, up 15% y-o-y, for a margin of 11.9% (10.1). Apart from the Q4 numbers, we will focus on qualitative comments regarding the timeline of product validation and commercial volume ramp-up of the company's new expansion in Hungary as this will be a key factor for accelerating growth during '26e, which we discuss more below. Raised organic assumptions offset by FX We make organic, top-line-driven EBITA upgrades of 2-4% for '26e-'27e. However, updating FX assumptions cuts EBITA by 3% per year, roughly neutralising the organic upgrades and resulting in overall EBITA revisions of -1% for '26e and +1% for '27e. Organic growth and cash conversion to improve During '25e, earnings growth was driven mainly by margins recovering to historical levels, which the company had been trending below since '22. Going into '26e, we expect margin expansion to slow somewhat, and model an improvement of +0.5pp compared to +1.6pp y-o-y in '25e. However, we argue organic growth should instead accelerate, driven by the aforementioned expansion in Hungary, which at full utilisation will add ~7% to sales. This supports an estimated '25e-'27e EBITA CAGR of 9%, while lower capex (also due to the now finished expansion) and a '25e ND/EBITDA of 0.5x leave plenty of room for M&A. Finally, the share is trading at 14.5x '26e EV/EBITA, somewhat below its 5Y average of 15.2x, and we note that in the past five years the highest-quality segment - Medical Solutions - has gone from 34% of gr... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2026/1/nolato---from-margin-recovery-to-higher-growth/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2026/1/nolato---from-margin-recovery-to-higher-growth/ Mon, 19 Jan 2026 07:15:02 GMT SE0015962477 Analys Negative FX and calendar effects We trim '25e-'27e EBIT by 2% Trading at 9x NTM EV/EBIT FX and Chinese New Year weigh on Q4e In Q4'25 we expect positive organic growth of 3%, which implies sales of SEK 214m and adj. EBIT of ~SEK 17m, corresponding to a margin of 7.7%. We expect the gross margin to continue its recent strong trajectory at 46.4%. We keep in mind that Nilörn is affected by a calendar effect depending on when the Chinese New Year occurs. In 2026, the holiday begins in late February, compared to late January in 2025. An early Chinese New Year typically results in customers placing orders in Q4, and the timing in '26 implies tough comps for Nilörn in Q4'25e, as we expect customers to place orders in Q1'26 rather than Q4. We expect Nilörn's order intake to be within the range of SEK 220m-240m. This is in line with Nilörn's average order intake on an LTM basis, and ~10-15% above the historical average of ~SEK 205m. Minor annual EBIT cuts We have cut our '25e-'27e sales and EBIT by 0-1% and 2%, respectively. The changes to '26e-'27e sales primarily follow updated FX movements. While an FX drag on sales typically leads to a positive impact on gross margins, we slightly increase our opex base on negative scale due to the Chinese New Year. Although we only increase opex by SEK 0.4m, we cut Q4e adj. EBIT by 8%. Valuation Our new estimates imply that Nilörn is trading at 9.2x NTM EV/EBIT. We also note that the company is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT level that is slightly below the corresponding five-year median of 9.4x. We continue to be optimistic about the long-term prospects of the investments in Bangladesh and the efforts in Sri Lanka, and expect the EBIT margin target of >10% to be achieved by '27e. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2026/1/nilorn---a-few-bumps-in-the-q4-road/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2026/1/nilorn---a-few-bumps-in-the-q4-road/ Mon, 19 Jan 2026 07:00:02 GMT SE0007100342 Analys Q4e: 4% organic sales growth, 11% adj. EBITA margin We cut estimates on the downgraded outlook Trading at 8x '26e adj. EV/EBITA The final quarter of a tough year We expect Q4 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 227m and SEK 24m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of 4% and a margin of 11%. We expect 2% organic sales in the Nordics, primarily driven by Norway as Q4'24 included financial lease sales of SEK 15m, which toughens the comps. Moreover, we expect the UK & Ireland to grow sales by 8% organically, which is offset by an FX-effect of -9%. On margins, we expect the gross margin to remain strong as it has been throughout '25, but expect increased opex y-o-y to lead to a lower adj. EBITA margin y-o-y (10.8% vs. 12.4%). Estimates cut on downgraded outlook We lower '25e-'27e sales by 1-2%, respectively, primarily due to the recent downgraded outlook which leads us to cut UK products sales by 6-4% in '25e-'27e, as well as updated FX assumptions. While the changes to our sales estimates are limited, we expect lower margins as product sales generally carry higher margins, and we assess that the lowered guidance primarily referred to product sales. As such, adj. EBITA is lowered by 7-2% in '25e-'27e, on both negative scale effects from the lowered sales and different sales mix. Share trading at 8x '26e adj. EV/EBITA On our updated estimates, Careium is trading at 11x-7x '25e-'27e adj. EV/EBITA, where we highlight '25e-'27e organic sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 8% and 21%, respectively. Careium will face lighter comps in '26e due to the lack of financial lease contracts in comparative quarters, and as such '26e growth will likely serve as more equitable indication of Careium's underlying performance. Moreover, the new CEO Tove Christiansson will join the company in Q2'26. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2026/1/careium---at-the-end-of-a-rough-stretch-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2026/1/careium---at-the-end-of-a-rough-stretch-/ Thu, 15 Jan 2026 17:30:03 GMT SE0017131824 Analys Wins a SEK 280m contract, starting in Q1'26 Pure software delivery, supporting a stronger margin profile Significant, positive mechanical impact to consensus sales estimates A strategically important win Clavister has been awarded a ~SEK 280m contract by the Norwegian Defence Materiel Agency, with options of ~SEK 15m. The project starts already in Q1'26, and it runs for ~3 years, adding an average of ~SEK 80-85m in sales per year during the delivery period. This is followed by a support and maintenance contribution thereafter of ~SEK 8m per year for four years. Importantly, the contract is based on Clavister's networking and security software, which does not include any partners or third-party vendors. We believe this should translate into mechanically higher gross margins compared to hardware sales. Nearly 30% uplift to consensus sales We estimate that the contract mechanically adds nearly 30% to '26-'27 FactSet consensus sales, with a likely positive effect on EBIT margins given the favourable mix. We view this as a reference project that reinforces Clavister's credibility as a European supplier of critical network security. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2026/1/clavister---largest-contract-ever-for-clavister/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2026/1/clavister---largest-contract-ever-for-clavister/ Thu, 15 Jan 2026 16:30:03 GMT SE0005308558 Analys Targeting a huge unmet medical need Revised best-in-class potential Fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share Huge unmet medical need Isofol is developing arfolitixorin , a next-generation active folate designed to enhance standard chemotherapy built around 5-FU (fluorouracil) , a widely used backbone treatment in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) expected to remain for the foreseeable future. CRC is the third most-common cancer globally, of which ~20-25% of patients present with metastatic CRC and 5-year survival <15%. A clear value proposition Although the Ph 3 AGENT trial failed in 2022, post-hoc analyses and an extensive review identified clear, addressable shortcomings in dosing, timing and protocol adherence. With a revised clinical strategy, a well-defined mechanistic rationale and sharpened organisational focus, we see renewed potential for arfolitixorin to replace leucovorin , the current suboptimal standard of care folate. Unlike leucovorin, which is a pro-drug requiring metabolic activation, arfolitixorin delivers the active folate directly, enabling more predictable and potentially stronger 5-FU enhancement. The ongoing Ph 1b/2 trial addresses prior shortcomings through higher dosing, correct timing and tighter protocol control, supported by renewed management and partner backing. If successful, we expect a late-2032e launch and ~50% peak penetration, supporting peak sales (ABGSCe) of ~SEK 7.7bn (non-risked) and ~SEK 1.5bn (risk-adj.). Fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share We value Isofol using a risk-adj. DCF (12% WACC, 0% terminal growth rate), including future dilution. Scenario A assumes clinical failure (LOA 0%) and yields SEK 0.1/share; scenario B reflects a risk-weighted outcome (LOA 20%), with a value of SEK 1.6/share, while scenario C assumes full clinical and commercial success in first-line mCRC (LOA 100%) with a value of SEK 10.5/share. This implies a fair value range of SEK 0.1-10.5/share. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/isofol-medical/Equity-research/2026/1/Isofol-medical-learn-from-the-first-deliver-on-the-second/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/isofol-medical/Equity-research/2026/1/Isofol-medical-learn-from-the-first-deliver-on-the-second/ Thu, 15 Jan 2026 10:15:03 GMT SE0009581051 Analys Q4e: soft growth, but margins supported by restructuring programme Estimate cuts on FX and product mix Trading at '26e EV/EBITA of ~7.5x What to expect in Q4'25e We anticipate -1% y-o-y organic growth in Q4'25e, implying sales of SEK 918m and adj. EBIT of SEK 36m, for a margin of 4%. We expect sales to be significantly impacted by FX headwinds, reducing our sales growth estimates to -4.5%. The Spanish factory fire remains a headwind for volumes, but the loss of lower-margin output supports a mechanically higher gross margin of 28% through mix, masking underlying volume pressure. We note that the GM in Q4'24 was strong at 28.9% compared to an average of 26% in Q4s L5Y. Our estimated adj. EBIT margin is up 0.3pp y-o-y, as we expect total opex to decline by 6%, partly on the recent cost savings initiatives. Estimate changes We lower '25e-'26e adj. EBIT by 2-3%. We decrease our gross profit estimates on a less favourable product mix and updated FX movements, although this is offset by our slightly decreased opex estimates. We believe that continued weakness in the Nordics is to be expected as Midsona phases out licenced brands. However, we believe that continued strength in North Europe is likely and that Midsona's own brands will continue to grow in '26e alongside underlying improvements in South Europe (excluding the effect from the fire). Keep in mind that Q1'26 will be the final quarter to face tough comps from the fire in Spain and that margins are likely to improve as the product mix shifts further away from licenced brands and the restructuring programme is fully implemented. Implied valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~7.5x '26e EV/EBITA, which is ~30% below current peer multiples. We note that peers, in turn, are trading ~25% below the 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2026/1/midsona---persistent-earnings-despite-soft-sales/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2026/1/midsona---persistent-earnings-despite-soft-sales/ Fri, 09 Jan 2026 16:45:02 GMT SE0000565228 Analys Acquisition of Volvo Construction Equipment dealer in Iowa Adds 8% to PF'26e EBIT, 13x acquisition EV/EBIT Aligns with strategic rationale of expanding in adjacent US territories Acquisition of VCE dealer in Iowa Yesterday Ferronordic agreed, through its US subsidiary Rudd Equipment, to acquire the Volvo Construction Equipment part of of Iowa dealer Housby. At present, Housby is a leading dealership in the state of Iowa and distributes Mack, Izuzu and Volvo Construction Equipment. It operates three workshops in the state of Iowa and has 26 employees, who will be employed by Rudd. Housby is currently owned by two brothers, and the rationale for the sale is twofold: an upcoming generational transition within the owning family and a strategic decision to focus exclusively on the Mack dealership.The acquisition expands Rudd's operations into the adjacent Iowa territory and allows for a greater geographical presence in the Midwest. Valuation of the acqusition lands at 13x EV/EBIT Housby reported sales related to construction equipment of USD 26.6m with an estimated EBIT of USD 1.3m. The acquisition will add ~5% on topline and ~8% to PF'26e EBIT. Housby displays an EBIT margin of 4.9% in 2024, which although is above the company group level, is below Rudd's margin of roughly 8% in FY24. We estimate that this takes PF'26e ND/EBITDA to to 2.2x from our current estimate of 2.1x. The acquisition multiple landed at ~13x EV/EBIT, which is fairly high but this excludes synergy effects the cost synergies that Ferronordic expects to realise. These synergies are expected to arise from the elimination of Housby’s internal corporate costs and the centralisation of these functions at Rudd’s headquarters in Louisville. Its positive to see the company starting to execute on its explicit strategy of growing through acquisitions in its US geography. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Equity-research/2026/1/ferronordic---us-midwest-expansion/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Equity-research/2026/1/ferronordic---us-midwest-expansion/ Wed, 07 Jan 2026 09:00:02 GMT SE0005468717 Analys Market conditions remain challenging, lowering Q4e volumes We lower '25e-'27e adj. EBIT by 3-6% 12x-11x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT adj. Automotive is the main culprit We expect the recent challenging market conditions to persist in Q4. In addition to generally subdued volumes and price pressure due to an oversupply of consultants, there are ongoing cost-saving measures in the important automotive end-market (including significant lay-offs at Volvo Cars, which are only starting to take their toll in H2'25), hurting demand further. On a positive note, the public sector and telecoms are starting to show signs of stabilisation, and Q4 is the first quarter with comparable y-o-y figures following the recent portfolio rebalancing. Nonetheless, we expect Q4 sales to drop 13% y-o-y, to SEK 3.6bn. Although gross margins have recently improved nicely (the Q3 metric was the highest since Q2'18), we expect the lower sales volumes to lower earnings, with adj. EBIT down 39% y-o-y, to SEK 33m. We take a more cautious view on the recovery With continued negative data points (e.g. PW from NNIT and muted KPIs from the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research), we are taking a more cautious view of the recovery. Consequently, we lower '25e-'27e adj. EBIT by 3-6% because of our slightly lower sales assumptions. Although estimate visibility is currently low, we continue to anticipate negative growth rates in H1'26, with some improvement in H2'26. 12x-11x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT adj. The share is trading at 12x-11x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT adj. (vs. peers at 11x-15x), which is largely in line with its 10Y avg. of ~12x. We continue to expect earnings to pick up well once demand returns, but we anticipate subdued earnings growth in the near term due to the challenging market. Furthermore, we are eager to learn about the new financial targets, due in 2026. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2025/12/ework-group---auto-woes-continue/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2025/12/ework-group---auto-woes-continue/ Mon, 29 Dec 2025 13:45:01 GMT SE0002402701 Analys Rights issue of SEK 51.8m to accelerate recycling expansion Fully covered by subscription and underwriting commitments Prelim. Q4: sales SEK 44m, EBITDA SEK 0m (ABGSCe 54m, 4m) Rights issue of SEK 52m, fully covered This morning, Nexam announced it is carrying out a rights issue of approximately SEK 51.8m (~SEK 6.6m in costs), fully covered by subscription and underwriting commitments. Moreover, the rights issue is accompanied by a proposed over-allotment issue of up to SEK 15m. The subscription price is set at SEK 2.4 (~30% discount to Friday's closing price). Upon full subscription, the issue will result in a dilution effect of ~21% (ex. over-allotment) and ~26% at maximum, including the over-allotment and potential underwriter compensation shares. Proceeds are intended to accelerate Nexam’s commercial expansion within the Recycling business area and to strengthen financial flexibility (Q3 cash balance of SEK 11m). During 2025, the Recycling segment has continued to scale commercially, leading to higher working capital requirements and an increased need for growth funding. Preliminary Q4 figures released In connection with the rights issue announcement, Nexam also disclosed preliminary Q4 figures, with sales of SEK 43.5m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 54m, SEK 49m LY) and EBITDA around break-even (vs. ABGSCe SEK 4m, SEK 2m LY). The weaker-than-expected sales were primarily driven by the High Temperature business area, which was impacted by a temporary inventory adjustment by a major customer. Nexam considers this effect to be non-recurring and does not expect it to affect the segment’s long-term market position. The Aesthetics (Masterbatch) and Lightweight business areas were also impacted by softer market conditions. However, the Recycling segment remained a bright spot in Q4, with a continued increase in sales to SEK 8.2m (SEK 2.3m LY). Long-term potential intact On numbers alone, '25e-'27e sales is impacted negatively by 5-4% and EBITDA adj... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nexam-chemical/Equity-research/2025/12/nexam-chemical---rights-issue-and-preliminary-q4-announced/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nexam-chemical/Equity-research/2025/12/nexam-chemical---rights-issue-and-preliminary-q4-announced/ Mon, 22 Dec 2025 20:00:03 GMT SE0005101003 Analys Inks SEK 240m order with EU NATO customer (Ovzon-3 related) 60% terminals, 40% SATCOM (6-month); deliveries start in H1'26 Supports 2026e estimates and broadens the client base - positive Good to see another order, especially SATCOM Following yesterday's SEK 58m terminal order with FMV, during which we expressed our desire for the company to sign a SATCOM order amid high demand and significant unused capacity, Ovzon today signed a major contract with a European NATO customer. The SEK 240m (USD 25m) order relates to the company's proprietary satellite, Ovzon-3, and 60% of this relates to satellite terminals while 40% is SATCOM (6-month contract). Supports 2026e estimates The plan is for SATCOM commencement in Q1'26 and progressive delivery of terminals during 2026. Given the significant proportion of terminals involved, we believe that it is highly likely that the contract will be renewed after six months, as the sunk cost for the customer would otherwise be substantial (given that the terminals are not compatible with any other service). However, an even longer durability would, of course, have been welcomed. Nevertheless, this is a positive announcement, not only because it supports 2026 estimates, but also because it further broadens the company's customer base and arguably puts pressure on other customer prospects to sign up with Ovzon, whereas current capacity is limited (but the company intends to launch more satellites over time). SATCOM demand remains high and the stock is trading at 14x '26e EV/EBIT (9% FCF yield), with potential upside to consensus estimates given the recent pick-up in order activity. Ovzon order announcements (USDm) Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Sales, quarterly (SEKm) Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Sales breakdown (SEKm) Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Net sales (SEKm) and EBIT margins Source: ABG Sundal ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2025/12/ovzon---sek-240m-order-with-eu-nato-customer/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2025/12/ovzon---sek-240m-order-with-eu-nato-customer/ Fri, 19 Dec 2025 15:15:03 GMT SE0010948711 Analys Small, value-accretive divestment; IRR of 24% Streamlines the portfolio and sharpens strategic focus Limited financial impact; earnout offers upside Divestment to Bonnier, proceeds in line with reported NAV Byggmästaren has agreed to divest its entire holding in Ge-Te Media to Bonnier News Local at a value broadly in line with its reported NAV (Q3 equity value of SEK 16m pre-transaction). The company will receive an initial consideration of SEK 18m, plus an earnout linked to FY 2026 results that would amount to roughly SEK 28m if budget targets are met (payable in 2027). Ahead of closing, Byggmästaren will convert its SEK 28m shareholder loan into equity, increasing its ownership to ~90% at the time of sale. Based on the transaction valuation and total cash flows since 2020, the investment has generated an IRR of 24%. The divestment aligns with Byggmästaren’s strategy to focus on core holdings that meet its long-term investment criteria and is not expected to materially affect NAV. Minor financial impact but positive development Ge-Te Media has been a high-return investment, but we see limited long-term growth potential following the operational improvements and value creation already achieved. As Byggmästaren notes, the company is not a core holding and does not fulfil its current investment criteria. We therefore view the divestment as marginally positive for portfolio composition, as it streamlines the portfolio and allows management to allocate resources toward existing and future core assets. Furthermore, we see good potential for the earnout, given the favourable outlook for the business into 2026. 9% NAV discount in line with historical average The shares trade at a 9% discount to ABGSCe NAV, in line with the five-year average but still wider than many peers. While the discount has narrowed in recent months, it remains elevated despite Byggmästaren’s strong value-creation track record, the recent c... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Equity-research/2025/12/byggmastaren---divestment-of-ge-te-media/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Equity-research/2025/12/byggmastaren---divestment-of-ge-te-media/ Thu, 18 Dec 2025 16:15:03 GMT SE0006510491 Analys SEK 58m follow-up order (Terminals) from Swedish FMV Deliveries start in H1'26 Supports Terminals sales in '26e (~20% of sales) SEK 58m follow-up order from FMV Following a period of quiet order announcements, Ovzon has today announced a SEK 58m supplementary order from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) for additional satellite terminals. This order complements the SEK 1bn breakthrough order placed with the same customer in May 2025. The latter was primarily related to SATCOM revenues (~80% of the contract), while the remaining 20% was related to terminals. The terminals are also compatible with Ovzon-3, suggesting that more SATCOM contract capacity could shift to Ovzon-3 over time (note that the May contract was primarily for leased capacity). Estimate revisions According to the press release, deliveries under the SEK 58m contract will begin in H1 2026, which we believe will lead to positive sales estimate revisions for Terminals sales in 2026e. However, Terminals only comprise ~20% of sales (2025e), whereas activity in terms of SATCOM announcements remains quiet. Given the complexity of such contracts - they are typically large and involve significant commitment from both the customer and Ovzon - it is not surprising that sales cycles are long. We note that consensus expects increased SATCOM revenues in 2026, so these assumptions could be at risk if no announcement is made. Nevertheless, today's order announcement is positive and supports the 2026 estimates. SATCOM demand remains high, and the stock is trading at 14x '26e EV/EBIT (9% FCF yield). Sales, quarterly (SEKm) Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Sales breakdown (SEKm) Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Net sales (SEKm) and EBIT margins Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data SSC/FMV orders (USDm) Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2025/12/ovzon---new-sek-58m-terminal-order-from-fmv/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2025/12/ovzon---new-sek-58m-terminal-order-from-fmv/ Thu, 18 Dec 2025 08:00:03 GMT SE0010948711 Analys Raises SEK 26.6m in the rights issue Reduces working capital needs by up to SEK 30m Mitigates near-term liquidity risk, but medium-term risk persists Final outcome of the rights issue Today, Impact Coatings received the final outcome of its rights issue, with total subscriptions amounting to approximately 30.4% (SEK 26.6m). The company also disclosed on Friday that it has entered a new metal supply agreement with a new supplier to the company's Coating Services business. The agreement is expected to reduce the company's working capital needs by up to SEK 30m. Furthermore, Impact Coatings stated that it will seek an industrial investor and long-term partner to support its strategic development, with the aim of completing a directed minority share issue during 2026. Overall, we believe this represents a sound and constructive strategic step for the company. Near-term liquidity risk mitigated Thanks to the company's new metal supply agreement, the SEK 26.6m proceeds from the rights issue and increased momentum in Coating Services, we think Impact Coatings should have sufficient liquidity in Q1'26. Furthermore, the company recently announced that it had received a letter of intent from its high-end eyewear customer, LINDBERG, expressing an intention to acquire an additional INLINECOATER coating system in the near term. Outlook We find it positive to see that the company has worked on its working capital needs and is gaining momentum in Coating Services. However, in order to mitigate medium-term liquidity risk, we deem it essential for the company's System deliveries to ramp up. Impact Coatings expects to sell systems within all four of its application areas (Energy, Automotive, Electronics, and Luxury Goods), indicating System sales of SEK 80-100m in '26. While this seems positive, the outlook should be taken with caution due to the uncertain market. We currently have three System deliveries for '25e-'26e. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2025/12/impact-coatings---raises-sek-26.6m-in-the-rights-issue/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2025/12/impact-coatings---raises-sek-26.6m-in-the-rights-issue/ Mon, 15 Dec 2025 15:30:02 GMT SE0001279142 Analys Careium states that it will not meet FY'25 outlook... ... Implying FY'25 sales growth of -2% Mechanical effect on '25 estimates imply 4% cut on EBIT Careium will not meet its '25e outlook Careium has downgraded its full-year outlook, which was previously expecting net sales, profitability and free cash flow before acquisitions to increase compared to 2024. The company now expects Q4'25e sales to be in line with Q4'24, which implies net sales growth of -2% for FY'25. We expect negative FX effects of ~2% for FY'25, implying flat organic sales growth. According to the press release , the operations are developing well, but that it is experiencing longer sales cycles than expected in UK and Germany for product sales. '25e EBIT mechanically down 4% A mechanical cut to our estimates would imply -1% for '25e sales. We expect Q4'24 had sales of SEK 229m, which is 3% below our current estimate of SEK 237m. Careium does not specify an estimate for Q4e operating profit, but keeping all our margin estimates unchanged, the mechanical cut to '25e EBIT is 4% (-10% for Q4e). Note that this does not imply major estimate revisions as our previous estimates did not imply that Careium would increase its operating profit y-o-y in '25. Trading at 8x EV/EBITA adj. '26e On our previous estimates and yesterday's closing price, Careium traded at 10.4x-6.8x EV/EBITA adj. '25e-'27e, and on the implied revisions to our estimates, it trades at 10.8x-7.1x EV/EBITA adj. '25e-'27e. Careium will publish its full-year results on February 11, 2026. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2025/12/careium---downgrades-25e-outlook/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2025/12/careium---downgrades-25e-outlook/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:30:03 GMT SE0017131824 Analys https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ascelia-pharma/Media/2025/12/ascelia-pharma---company-presentation-with-ceo-magnus-corfitzen/ascelia-pharma---company-presentation-with--ceo-magnus-corfitzen/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ascelia-pharma/Media/2025/12/ascelia-pharma---company-presentation-with-ceo-magnus-corfitzen/ascelia-pharma---company-presentation-with--ceo-magnus-corfitzen/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0010573113 f8xNxf4Idkw Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Media/2025/12/b3-consulting-group---company-presentation-with-ceo-martin-stenstrom/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Media/2025/12/b3-consulting-group---company-presentation-with-ceo-martin-stenstrom/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0008347660 0Jl83o5JFYM Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Media/2025/12/byggmastaren-company-presentation-with-ceo-tomas-bergstrom/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Media/2025/12/byggmastaren-company-presentation-with-ceo-tomas-bergstrom/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0006510491 P_nROhiEHbo Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Media/2025/12/catella-company-presentation-with-cfo-michel-fischier/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Media/2025/12/catella-company-presentation-with-cfo-michel-fischier/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0000188518 dNfc0Ev69fI Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Media/2025/12/cavotec-company-presentation-with-ceo-david-pagels-and-cfo-joakim-wahlquist/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Media/2025/12/cavotec-company-presentation-with-ceo-david-pagels-and-cfo-joakim-wahlquist/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT CH0136071542 wtVPW_uYHJw Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Media/2025/12/clavister-company-presentation-with-ceo-john-vestberg/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Media/2025/12/clavister-company-presentation-with-ceo-john-vestberg/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0005308558 JnRpie9EARY Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eastnine/Media/2025/12/Eastnine-company-presentation-with-ceo-kestutis-sasnauskas-and-cfo-britt-marie-nyman/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eastnine/Media/2025/12/Eastnine-company-presentation-with-ceo-kestutis-sasnauskas-and-cfo-britt-marie-nyman/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0002158568 mziuoz2-E8Q Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eltel/Media/2025/12/Eltel-company-presentation-with-ceo-hakan-dahlstrom/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eltel/Media/2025/12/Eltel-company-presentation-with-ceo-hakan-dahlstrom/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0006509949 17dqAkOl5v0 Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Media/2025/12/embellence-group-company-presentation-with-ceo-johan-andgren/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Media/2025/12/embellence-group-company-presentation-with-ceo-johan-andgren/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0013888831 1DhHLQPKxL0 Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Media/2025/12/eolus-group-company-presentation-with-ir-harald-cavalli-bjorkman/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Media/2025/12/eolus-group-company-presentation-with-ir-harald-cavalli-bjorkman/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0007075056 fRixCPygGvA Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Media/2025/12/ework-group-company-presentation-with-ceo-daniel-almgren-and-cfo-johanna-estra/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Media/2025/12/ework-group-company-presentation-with-ceo-daniel-almgren-and-cfo-johanna-estra/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0002402701 rliYxjMSFPk Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Media/2025/12/ferronordic-company-presentation-with-group-cfo-and-head-of-ir-erik-danemar/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Media/2025/12/ferronordic-company-presentation-with-group-cfo-and-head-of-ir-erik-danemar/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0005468717 Ikkn_dKaRmU Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Media/2025/12/g5-entertainment-company-presentation-with-cfo-and-deputy-ceo-stefan-wikstrand/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Media/2025/12/g5-entertainment-company-presentation-with-cfo-and-deputy-ceo-stefan-wikstrand/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0001824004 0TPEA118qYM Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Media/2025/12/gentoo-media-company-presentation-with-cfo-Mads-Haugegaard-Albrechtsen-and-Head-of-IR-sebastian-mortensen/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Media/2025/12/gentoo-media-company-presentation-with-cfo-Mads-Haugegaard-Albrechtsen-and-Head-of-IR-sebastian-mortensen/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT US36467X2062 ZB0tMq9-USQ Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Media/2025/12/impact-coatings-company-presentation-with-ceo-jonas-nilsson/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Media/2025/12/impact-coatings-company-presentation-with-ceo-jonas-nilsson/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0001279142 tAfXa8L5SCU Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Media/2025/12/Infrea-company-presentation-with-ceo-Martin-Reinholdsson/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Media/2025/12/Infrea-company-presentation-with-ceo-Martin-Reinholdsson/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0010600106 bLhm6ocSsNE Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Media/2025/12/Inission-company-presentation-with-president-and-ceo-fredrik-berghel/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Media/2025/12/Inission-company-presentation-with-president-and-ceo-fredrik-berghel/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0016275069 8zkXAGWxTa8 Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/lumi-gruppen/Media/2025/12/lumi-gruppen-company-presentation-with-ceo-nina-vesterby-and-cfo-martin-prytz/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/lumi-gruppen/Media/2025/12/lumi-gruppen-company-presentation-with-ceo-nina-vesterby-and-cfo-martin-prytz/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT NO0010927288 sCAfrjJ8FRE Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Media/2025/12/Midsona-company-presentation-with-ceo-henrik-hjalmarsson/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Media/2025/12/Midsona-company-presentation-with-ceo-henrik-hjalmarsson/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0000565228 mVI4DncKkT0 Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nexam-chemical/Media/2025/12/Nexam-chemical-company-presentation-with-ceo-ronnie-tornqvist-and-cfo-marcus-nyberg/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nexam-chemical/Media/2025/12/Nexam-chemical-company-presentation-with-ceo-ronnie-tornqvist-and-cfo-marcus-nyberg/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0005101003 1eAJjJa3THc Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Media/2025/12/Nilorn-company-presentation-with-ceo-krister-magnusson/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Media/2025/12/Nilorn-company-presentation-with-ceo-krister-magnusson/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0007100342 kOomvK2Us1w Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Media/2025/12/NYAB-company-presentation-with-cfo-klas-rewelj-andvp-corporate-affair-erik-petersen/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Media/2025/12/NYAB-company-presentation-with-cfo-klas-rewelj-andvp-corporate-affair-erik-petersen/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0022242434 28y2zFcEbqk Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Media/2025/12/OrganoClick-company-presentation-with-ceo-marten-hellberg/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Media/2025/12/OrganoClick-company-presentation-with-ceo-marten-hellberg/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0006510335 U9oiydhiatw Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Media/2025/12/I-Tech-company-presentation-with-cfo-and-acting-ceo-magnus-henell/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Media/2025/12/I-Tech-company-presentation-with-cfo-and-acting-ceo-magnus-henell/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0011167725 lGvy-bdkCYY Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/media/2025/12/Ovzon-company-presentation-with-ceo-per-noren-and-cfo-andre-lofgren/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/media/2025/12/Ovzon-company-presentation-with-ceo-per-noren-and-cfo-andre-lofgren/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0010948711 Y950sYYLrMU Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Media/2025/12/Prevas-company-presentation-with-ceo-magnus-welen/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Media/2025/12/Prevas-company-presentation-with-ceo-magnus-welen/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0000356008 dBn_59TSn84 Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Media/2025/12/Proact-IT-Group-company-presentation-with-ceo-magnus-lonn/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Media/2025/12/Proact-IT-Group-company-presentation-with-ceo-magnus-lonn/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0015961222 9GbO6WKm_MQ Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Media/2025/12/SinterCast-company-presentation-with-operations-officer-vitor-anjos/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Media/2025/12/SinterCast-company-presentation-with-operations-officer-vitor-anjos/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0000950982 96iSQHwyBc8 Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Media/2025/12/Skolon-company-presentation-with-ceo-oliver-lundgren/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Media/2025/12/Skolon-company-presentation-with-ceo-oliver-lundgren/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0017615784 no4uIDunT8A Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Media/2025/12/StrongPoint-company-presentation-with-cfo-marius-drefvelin/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Media/2025/12/StrongPoint-company-presentation-with-cfo-marius-drefvelin/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT NO0010098247 HcBX4xl9Qvk Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Media/2025/12/Svedbergs-Group-company-presentation-with-ceo-per-arne-andersson/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Media/2025/12/Svedbergs-Group-company-presentation-with-ceo-per-arne-andersson/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0000407991 CbUIdOGDmdA Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/viscaria/Media/2025/12/Viscaria-company-presentation-with-head-of-geology-ross-armstrong/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/viscaria/Media/2025/12/Viscaria-company-presentation-with-head-of-geology-ross-armstrong/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0021148160 Ka_dYo--OZ0 Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Media/2025/12/Tempest-security-company-presentation-with-ceo-andrew-spry/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Media/2025/12/Tempest-security-company-presentation-with-ceo-andrew-spry/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0010469221 BO9HgQSSkYM Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Media/12/Xplora-Technologies-company-presentation-with-ceo-sten-kirkbak/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Media/12/Xplora-Technologies-company-presentation-with-ceo-sten-kirkbak/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT NO0010895782 rikR_Vg9HYA Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Media/2025/12/ossdsign-company-presentation-with-ceo-morten-henneveld/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Media/2025/12/ossdsign-company-presentation-with-ceo-morten-henneveld/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0012570448 _udM5YjTykg Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/studsvik/Media/2025/12/Studsvik-company-presentation-with-ceo-karl-thedeen/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/studsvik/Media/2025/12/Studsvik-company-presentation-with-ceo-karl-thedeen/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0000653230 NSXLTAWMnoo Media https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/isofol-medical/Media/2025/12/Isofol-Medical-company-presentation-with-cfo-and-acting-ceo-petter-segelman-lindqvist/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/isofol-medical/Media/2025/12/Isofol-Medical-company-presentation-with-cfo-and-acting-ceo-petter-segelman-lindqvist/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 08:00:00 GMT SE0009581051 lH5s4pPUsbM Media Mark Waugh appointed new CEO Relevant background from orthapaedic industry Supportive for sentiment Getting ready for the next phase OssDsign has appointed Mark Waugh as its new CEO, effective 1 January 2026. Waugh joins from Medacta USA, where he served as SVP Commercial, and brings 20+ years of commercial and leadership experience across major ortho companies including Smith & Nephew and Medtronic with a focus on commercial execution and US expansion in spine and broader orthopaedics. Mark Waugh will start on 1 January 2026, and be based in the US. Outgoing CEO Morten Henneveld leaves after five years in which OssDsign has transformed its business and delivered strong double-digit growth, driven by the US launch of Catalyst in 2021. Relevant background We believe Mark Waugh to have a very relevant background with solid credentials to take OssDsign to the next level, after a successful launch in the US market. The focus will be to accelerate the commercialisation of Catalyst by deepen U.S. market penetration, and continue scaling surgeon and distributor adoption. Positive for sentiment The appointment of a new CEO should help to support the share price sentiment in OssDsign. We believe it is positive that the Board of Directors has found a new CEO with relevant background from industry, based in the US, to take the company to the next level. We leave our estimates unchanged and reiterate our fair value range unchanged at SEK 10-17 https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2025/12/ossdsign---new-ceo-appointed/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2025/12/ossdsign---new-ceo-appointed/ Wed, 10 Dec 2025 08:00:03 GMT SE0012570448 Analys CEO Martin Stenström held a general presentation Gaining more exposure to the defence sector Currently trading at 7x EV/EBITA, ~30% below avg. of peers Key takeaways from the presentation Yesterday, Mr. Stenström highlighted the continued strength in B3's core segments. Banking remains the largest and strongest vertical (~18% of sales). Industry is showing growth despite a subdued cycle, while the public sector continues to provide stable demand. In Norway, the company recently acquired Habberstad and thus gained more exposure to defence sector through its relationship with Kongsberg Gruppen. Mr. Stenström also mentioned the recent secured agreement with SAAB, which we believe reflects momentum in the sector. The company's Poland business stands out, representing ~13% YTD sales but generating ~33% of group EBIT, which underlines its higher-margin nature. The local model, based on own-employed consultants, enables near-full utilisation (~100%), which we believe is unique for consultant companies, and obviously supports profitability. Utilisation in Sweden has improved, and B3 maintains a strong focus on recruitment to return to positive net hiring. Overall, utilisation is increasing and supported by international operations. Looking ahead to 2026 We believe the market will remain somewhat challenging in the coming quarters. Konsultkompaniet (a Swedish IT consultant broker), recently communicated that fewer companies expect their own revenue to grow in 2026 . However, fewer expect declining sales, which likely points to most workforce reductions now being behind us. Overall, we believe B3 is well-positioned for '26e-'27e, and is currently trading at 7x EV/EBITA, ~30% below avg. peers. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2025/12/b3-consulting-group---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2025/12/b3-consulting-group---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ Fri, 05 Dec 2025 14:30:06 GMT SE0008347660 Analys Capitalising on increased insecurity within society Focus on core operations is starting to bear fruit Potential on the SOC business Overview of Tempest Security This week, we hosted Tempest Security CEO Andrew Spry at ABGSC's Investor Days. Founded in 2004, Tempest Security is a security services company offering protection and security-related services. It has established itself as Sweden's third-largest guarding company. Tempest provides trained security staff and technical solutions for alarms and surveillance. Its customers are found in a variety of sectors, including industry, offices and property, as well as state and municipal organisations. Potential in the SOC The key takeaways from the presentation were that the divestments and focus on core operations are starting to be reflected in the numbers, and that the initial costs associated with new contracts should now be declining, as the Scania contract has been replaced. Looking ahead, Tempest will continue to work on improving profitability. We believe that the Security Operations Centre (SOC) has the potential to contribute more in the future than it does today. The SOC dates back to Tempest's 2017 acquisition of Falck, an alarm centre that it has since developed into a SOC. The SOC currently accounts for a small proportion of Tempest's business, but according to Mr. Spry, margins of 50% in an SOC are reasonable in the future. For Tempest to reach this level, however, volumes will need to increase. The SOC business is highly scalable; adding a sensor or alarm does not incur any additional costs, and we believe this could boost Tempest's margins in the future. Focus on core operations We believe the company has taken important steps throughout the year with the divestment of the US and the turnaround in Denmark. There are further efficiencies to be gained from the newly signed contracts in Guarding, as profitability typically increases gradually after the initial start-up period. Thi... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2025/12/tempest-security---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2025/12/tempest-security---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ Fri, 05 Dec 2025 13:30:06 GMT SE0010469221 Analys Double-digit Svedbergs profitability in Q4 not ruled out Sustainability work is paying off Aims to fund M&A through its own cash flows from here Could deliver on promises made despite market softness We welcomed Svedbergs Group's CEO Per-Arne Andersson and Director of Business Development and Sustainability Beate Hennessy to our Investor Days event this week. Mr Andersson spoke about the pivot from being a low-growth high-dividend company in the past to the current M&A-driven strategy. A year ago, he set out a goal of reaching double-digit margins in the Svedbergs segment by Q4'25 after three tough years, with part of the then-expected recovery driven by an improving housing market. The Nordic primary housing market has not recovered, but Mr. Andersson still does not want to rule out reaching 10% margins in Q4. Sustainability is a sales and margin driver Mr. Andersson elaborated on the Group's (Ms. Hennessy's) sustainability work, saying it feels very comfortable in its progression in terms of sustainability reporting compared to its competition and the requirements set out by CSRD, although CSRD reporting requirements look to be more lax than initially thought. This is important for two reasons. Firstly because the Group's customers, whether retailers or project managers, have their own sustainability reporting protocols. As Svedbergs Group has plenty of sustainability-related documentation in place already and continue to develop LCAs, EPDs and started Digital Product Passports, choosing Svedbergs Group's companies as a supplier means choosing the path of least resistance. While no names were mentioned, there are concrete examples in which multi-million SEK contracts have been won due to Svedbergs Group's better sustainability reporting. Secondly, sustainability initiatives also reduce costs: in the UK, waste is taxed and Svedbergs Group's goal of reducing waste thus lowers cost both directly through materials use and through a lower ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2025/12/svedbergs-group---feedback-from-abgsc-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2025/12/svedbergs-group---feedback-from-abgsc-investor-days/ Fri, 05 Dec 2025 10:30:19 GMT SE0000407991 Analys CEO Oliver Lundgren highlighted Skolon surpassing 1m paying users Skolon has now reached 50% penetration in Sweden, 25% in Norway Aims for 5m paying users in '30e by further penetration & expansion Overview of Skolon Yesterday, we hosted Skolon’s management at ABGSC’s Investor Days. CEO Oliver Lundgren highlighted Skolon's strong position as one of the leading digital learning platforms in the Nordics. Skolon delivers an edtech platform, with few true platform competitors. The market is shifting, as many content providers and edtech companies are now actively seeking distribution, which we believe strengthens Skolon's role as an enabling marketplace. The Nordics are highly digitalised, whereas Southern Europe is ~10 years behind. Moreover, Skolon has already established a presence in five countries and recently surpassed 1m paying users. Key takeaways from the presentation Mr. Lundgren highlighted that the core part of Skolon’s value proposition is ease of use. Before platforms like Skolon existed, it could take 10–15 minutes for a classroom to start up its digital tools; with Skolon, it takes seconds. Skolon has more than 200 partners and 5,500 digital tools on its platform, ranging from traditional publishers to pure edtech players. In the Nordics, Skolon estimates that it offers 9 out of 10 tools available on the market. Mr. Lundgren also highlighted that Sweden has ~1.4m teachers and pupils, and that Norway has ~800k. According to the company, it currently reaches 50% of Sweden and 25% of Norway (in terms of addressable users). This was highlighted to illustrate the international potential, with Germany having ~12m students and teachers and the UK having ~8-9m. Overall, the presentation underscored Skolon’s position as a scalable, low-churn, recurring-revenue business with a long growth runway as European school systems accelerate their digital transformations. New financial targets Skolon ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2025/12/skolon---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2025/12/skolon---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ Fri, 05 Dec 2025 10:30:07 GMT SE0017615784 Analys Maintaining long-term partnerships Defence continues to be a fast-growing sector Trading ~20% below avg. peers for '26e Overview of Prevas Today at Investor Days, we hosted Prevas CEO Magnus Welén at ABGSC. Founded in 1985, Prevas is a technical consultancy company focused on product and production development. The company works closely with its customers, and has long-term partnerships with e.g. Hexagon. But the company's reach is broader than that, and its end markets include engineering, defence and energy. Its customers range from SAAB, ABB, Atlas Copco and Ericsson to Hitachi and Axis Communications. Key takeaways from the presentation As Mr. Welén mentioned during the presentation, the company has undergone extensive changes over the past couple of years. This includes decentralising the organisation and increasing responsibility per FTE, which has improved profitability over time. Another key change is that Prevas has established and positioned itself as a Nordic player in the market (supported by last year's acquisition of Enmac). When discussing product development, Mr Welén highlighted a product developed together with PolarCool, which cools the brain after a concussion, reducing the risk of injury, which is one of ~15,000 products the company has developed in total. As also noted, the company holds licences from partners, providing recurring revenue. Looking ahead to 2026 Looking ahead, we believe 1) That the market in Denmark (~10% of sales) will continue to be challenging, as many large companies have laid off employees, creating an oversupply of engineers. We expect Prevas to continue adapting and adjusting its cost base in line with market demand. 2) In Finland, profitability was reached in Q3'25, following recent cost-cutting and stronger sales focus. However, we still believe the market will remain challenging in the near term. 3) In Sweden, Prevas has recently acquired OIM, strengthening its positio... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2025/12/prevas---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2025/12/prevas---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ Fri, 05 Dec 2025 08:00:06 GMT SE0000356008 Analys We hosted CEO John Vestberg at Investor Days Strong shift towards stable recurring revenue model Trading at ~18-13x '26e-'27e EV/EBITDA Overview of Clavister Today at Investor Days, we hosted Clavister's CEO John Vestberg at ABGSC. Clavister is a tech company that produces and sells cybersecurity solutions for physical and virtual environments. Its product is "dual-use", packaged into hardware and delivered to end-markets such as the civilian sector (largest segment, ~80% of sales), telecom, energy and defence. The company also provides identity and access solutions, for e.g. Försäkringskassan. It is worth noting that this is not a competitor to BankID, but rather the underlying infrastructure used by this type of institution. Key takeaways from the presentation As one might expect, the largest competitors are US players such as Palo Alto and Fortinet. However, as Mr. Vestberg highlighted, the European market is starting to shift, with increasing interest in alternative European solutions such as Clavister. Regarding the business model, the company has transitioned from a more project-based model to a recurring-revenue model in recent years, resulting in lower risk and more stable revenues. Also worth mentioning are Clavister's annual churn of ~3% and annual price increases of ~5%, supporting long-term stability. On the defe nce side, the Netherlands contract is the only one currently reflected in the P&L, while the remaining secured contracts will be recognised in '26e-'29e. The backlog amounts to ~SEK 400m as of Q3'25. Looking ahead to 2026 We continue to view Clavister as a cybersecurity tech company with stable recurring revenues, supported by its largest end-market in the civilian sector. The company also has deferred tax assets of ~SEK 700m, meaning it will not pay taxes for several years. As mentioned in our fast comment of 30 November ( link ), with estimated ND/EBITDA of ~1.4x in Q4'25e (from 4.7x in Q... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2025/12/clavister---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2025/12/clavister---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ Fri, 05 Dec 2025 07:30:06 GMT SE0005308558 Analys Infra to divest a small segment 7% of '25e revenue and 16% of '25e EBITA Will reduce net debt by SEK 180m to SEK 27m Selling two companies Infrea is divesting its Water & Sewage segment to Norva24. The segment is rather small, at ~7% of '25e revenue and 16% of '25e EBITA. The segment consists of two companies: Cleanpipe and Cija Tank. Norva24 will pay SEK 143m in cash upon completion and the transaction has to be approved by authorities, with approval expected by end-December. The divestment will generate a capital gain of ~SEK 40m and reduce Infrea's net debt by approximately SEK 180m after transaction costs, Infrea reported net debt of SEK 207m in Q3'25. At the end of the year, net debt will thus be significantly lower than Infrea's target of net debt of 1.5x EBITDA. The divestment means that pro forma EBITA for the rolling 12 months as of 30 September 2025 will decrease by SEK 13.7m. Looking forward The divestment is reasonable for Infrea. The Water & Sewage segment has above-group average margins but works differently than the other segments. The W&S business is more of a "taxi car", where you have to focus on utilisation to keep up margins, whereas the other companies in the group are more traditional civil engineering and asphalting companies. As such, we think there are no operational synergies involved in Infrea retaining the W&S companies, and the divestment to pure-play water & sewage group Norva24 makes sense. Norva24 is paying an EV/EBITA multiple of ~16x on our '25e estimates, while Infrea is trading at ~8x. The transaction will lower net debt to SEK 27m, and with seasonal strong CF in Q4, we think Infrea could have net cash when the transaction is paid. This further strengthens our belief that Infrea can start focusing on growth through acquisitions. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/12/infrea---divesting-the-water--sewage-segment/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/12/infrea---divesting-the-water--sewage-segment/ Thu, 04 Dec 2025 16:45:04 GMT SE0010600106 Analys CEO highlighted potential future M&A Finding the balance between efficiency and individuality The profitability in Bangladesh was emphasised From a label to a concept We welcomed Krister Magnusson, the CEO of Nilörn, to ABGSC's Investor Days. Mr Magnusson spoke about Nilörn's journey from selling purely labels to offering its customers a complete concept. He also discussed the ongoing consolidation in the industry and the slow but steady expansion of Nilörn's US business (it had one employee in 2020 and has now hired three more). He also talked about the opportunity to increase sales by supporting customers' sustainability needs. Nilörn has hired a packaging specialist, as packaging can require a relatively high level of technical skill and knowledge. The aim is for this employee to support the sales staff and increase their expertise in this area. The circle vs. the square Mr Magnusson presented an image in which he compared Nilörn to a circle and the majority of competitors to a square. This emphasised that Nilörn is more flexible than competitors, who tend to offer more standardised solutions. Nilörn's goal is to strike the right balance between maintaining effectiveness and having a streamlined business model with standardised offerings, while also being able to provide its customers with bespoke solutions, such as custom designs. Moreover, the new factory in Bangladesh was mentioned, and Mr Magnusson emphasised that Bangladesh is Nilörn's most profitable business area. M&A potential highlighted The presentation also touched on the potential for future M&A activity. According to Mr Magnusson, Nilörn has not previously focused on M&A, but has now appointed someone to investigate M&A opportunities. For reference, the market is highly fragmented, with quite a lot of PE-driven activity around Nilörn's peers. Examples include the acquisition of Hong Kong-based supplier SML G... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2025/12/nilorn---feedback-from-abgsc-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2025/12/nilorn---feedback-from-abgsc-investor-days/ Thu, 04 Dec 2025 16:15:04 GMT SE0007100342 Analys Riding the infrastructure spending wave Internal efficiency improvements to continue 8-6x EBITA '25e-'27e, 26-16% FCF yields Expected investment boost Yesterday, we hosted Infrea's CEO, Martin Reinholdsson, at ABGSC's Investor Days. Mr Reinholdsson started by putting Infrea in the context of the infrastructure investment boost that is currently taking place in Sweden. This includes the NATO spending budget of 5%, the Swedish Transport Administration's proposed budget of SEK 1,200bn, Svenska Kraftnät's expected investment expansion and the large investment needs in water and sewage, all of which Infrea has the opportunity to capitalise on. Internal improvements showing in the numbers Besides operating in a market that is expected to have a bright future, Infrea has taken steps forward in terms of internal efficiency. Efforts begun in 2023/2024 are bearing fruit from what we can see in the numbers, and there is more work to be done, according to Mr Reinholdsson. The work is mostly focused around project management, tender discipline and capital tie-up. Infrea is a group consisting of 14 companies. Jonab and Asfaltsgruppen are ~50% of revenue, with the remaining 12 companies accounting for the rest. The group has worked with the companies during the year, closing down one unit that was not performing and restructuring another that needed a push in the right direction. Margins to improve and FCF to stabilise We believe that Infrea is well-positioned to grow organically and improve its margins, given its exposure to underlying demand and to public customers (~55%), as well as support from M&A (13% sales CAGR in '21-'24). For '24-'27e, we expect Infrea to deliver sales and profitability growth and FCF above peers but with slightly lower margins. The share is trading at 8-6x adj. EBITA on '25e-'27e with a 26-16% lease-adj. FCF yield, while peers are trading at 7-6x. pagebreak Sales split per segment Source: ABG Sundal... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/12/infrea---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/12/infrea---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ Thu, 04 Dec 2025 13:15:05 GMT SE0010600106 Analys SATCOM demand is strong There is good, untapped potential with Ovzon-3 The stock trades at 13x '26e EV/EBIT (10% FCF yield) SATCOM demand is increasing Today, we hosted Ovzon's CEO, Per Norén, as well as CFO, André Löfgren, at ABGSC's Investor Days. Ovzon provides fully integrated satellite communication solutions for mission-critical customers, particularly in the defence industry. To deliver its services, Ovzon uses capacity from its own proprietary satellite (Ovzon-3) as well as third-party capacity. One of its unique selling points is its OTP processor, which Ovzon-3 is equipped with and which creates a closed-loop communication system. In the wake of recent geopolitical turmoil, demand for satellite capacity has increased, as it is a particularly resilient complement to terrestrial networks. Another positive market trend is that more and more countries are realising that they need to incorporate proven satellite communication technology, such as that provided by Ovzon, into their communication strategies. Multiple milestone achievements in 2025 Management emphasised that 2025 has been an eventful year for the company, with several highlights: 1) signing of the SEK1bn breakthrough order with the Swedish FMV; 2) refinancing of its debt (interest rates have been lowered from ~15% to ~4.5%); 3) increased durability in the order backlog; 4) a better diversified customer base; and 5) becoming a profitable company, both in terms of EBIT and FCF (we expect 16% EBIT margin in '25e; and 30% '26e, as the FMV order only started to ramp in June). The larger the order, the higher the complexity Regarding order momentum, management emphasised that the company remains highly engaged in customer dialogues, although momentum in the US has recently been impacted by the government shutdown. Furthermore, the company is continuously striving to win large customers, although the timing of closing is uncertain given the high level of complexity. ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2025/12/ovzon---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2025/12/ovzon---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ Thu, 04 Dec 2025 11:15:04 GMT SE0010948711 Analys CFO and VP of corporate affairs gave general presentation Market activity remains high; NYAB well-positioned to gain share Stock trading at 9x EV/EBITA and 7% FCF yield on 2026e NYAB in brief We hosted NYAB's CFO Klas Rewelj and VP of Corporate Affairs Erik Petersen at ABGSC's Investor Days. NYAB is an engineering and construction company specialised in complex sustainable infrastructure projects. Energy is the largest segment (with around half of sales), where Vattenfall and Svenska Kraftnät are significant clients. The company distinguishes itself with its asset-light business model and high share of white-collar workers (~85%), making it look more like a project design and management company than a traditional construction company, which we think is evident in its high margins. 30% sales CAGR 2015-2024, but only <1% market share Mr. Rewelj and Mr. Petersen said that the underlying Nordic infrastructure market remains strong, with investment increases planned by public bodies for many years to come. Svenska Kraftnät, for instance (which is one of NYAB's largest clients) expects to double its annual investments between 2025 and 2030. In addition to the growing market, NYAB is a relatively new company - the growth journey began in 2011 when the current CEO and largest owner, Johan Larsson, took over. Despite growing by a ~30% CAGR over the last decade, it only has a market share of less than 1%. With its scalable business model, Mr. Rewelj said that he thinks the company is well-positioned to continue to gain market share. Short-term margin pressure comes from exceptional growth Q3 was characterised by slight margin pressure: margins in the main market Sweden declined from 10% to 8% y-o-y (still high for a construction company) due to an exceptional organic growth of 67%, as the company is delivering on a strong order book. To be able to deliver on this growth, the company says it has taken some costs up front, but that margins s... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2025/12/nyab---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2025/12/nyab---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ Thu, 04 Dec 2025 11:00:04 GMT SE0022242434 Analys Strong potential for margin improvements Short term priorities presented Favourable sales mix is the key driver for 8% margin Well-positioned in a recovering market Today, we welcomed Midsona's new CEO, Henrik Hjalmarsson, to ABGSC's Investor Days . During his presentation, Mr Hjalmarsson outlined Midsona's history, from its M&A-driven expansion phase from 2012 to 2019, through the industry turmoil of 2022–23, to the current phase following the new strategy presented in 2024. He discussed the brand and product portfolio, and during the Q&A session he commented that he foresees an increased share of own brands in the future, through increased momentum in its current strong brands and potentially future M&A. Other highlights included details on the fire in Spain and the launch of the restructuring programme. A closer look at the strategy Mr Hjalmarsson concluded his presentation by sharing his perspective on Midsona's strategy as the new CEO. He stated that the existing strategy's foundation will remain: investing in organic and healthy foods; developing and winning through its own strong brands; and focusing on existing geographical markets. The financial targets were also reiterated. Mr Hjalmarsson then presented three short-term priorities: 1. Successful implementation of the restructuring programme, 2. Leveraging growth momentum on own organic brands to improve profitability and as a growth platform in Health Foods and Consumer Health; and 3. Stabilising operations in Spain and executing an action plan for rapid profit improvement in Division South. Moreover, Midsona's strong local positions were underlined, as well as its potential to return to M&A-driven growth. The road to >8% EBIT margin by '27e Midsona targets >8% EBIT margin by the end of 2027, which is a 4.7pp increase from the LTM Q3'25 adj. EBIT margin at 3.3%. Mr Hjalmarsson stated that improving the margins will primarily depend on focusing on a favou... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2025/12/midsona---feedback-from-abgsc-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2025/12/midsona---feedback-from-abgsc-investor-days/ Wed, 03 Dec 2025 14:15:04 GMT SE0000565228 Analys Strong early data point with 25% conversion rate for Doro in D2C ... we lift conversion rate to 12% (8%), raising '28e EBITDA +17% EV/EBIT of 19x in '25e, but drops to 6.8x in '28e Solid Q3 with good gross margin Xplora delivered a solid Q3 report with revenue of NOK 510m (-4% vs ABGSCe) and adj. EBITDA of NOK 76m, 2% above ABGSCe of NOK 75m. The gross margin was particularly strong at 51.6% vs. ABGSCe at 47.5%, driven by new products with lower COGS. But the most interesting news in the report, in our view, was Xplora stating that the subscriber conversion rate for Doro now has increased to 25% in Nordic D2C channels, up from 13% in Q2. This is a very positive data point indicating that Xplora is on track to achieve a solid overall conversion rate. Higher conversion rate drives higher estimates for '27e-'28e With ~1.2m Doro phones sold annually, converting Doro customers to recurring subscribers is the key value driver for Xplora. Doro Connect should be live on the web in all markets by end Q1'26 and retail roll-out will follow from H1'16 onwards. In terms of estimate changes, we have increased the amount that we expect Xplora to spend on customer acquisition costs (CAC) in the senior segment (product discounting and kickback to retailers). We calculate a very high LTV/CAC on these investments, which means that these are very beneficial for long-term shareholder value creation. Combined with a strong initial conversion rate, this leads us to lift our expectation for the Doro conversion rate from 8% to 12%. We also lift the gross margin from 50% to 52%. This reduces '26e EBITDA by 3%, but increases '27e by 4% and '28e by 17%. Fair value range of NOK 40-71/share On our estimates, Xplora is now trading at 19.4x EV/EBIT in '25e, which drops to 6.8x in '28e. Our DCF scenarios point to NOK 40-71/share. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2025/12/xplora-technologies---grandma-clicks-the-revenue-sticks/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2025/12/xplora-technologies---grandma-clicks-the-revenue-sticks/ Wed, 03 Dec 2025 09:45:04 GMT NO0010895782 Analys CFO and new CEO gave a general presentation Some positive market signs, mainly in public and telecom sectors Stock trading at 12x-10x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT (10y avg. 12x) Ework in brief Earlier today, we hosted Ework's new CEO, Daniel Almgren, and CFO, Johanna Estra, at ABGSC's Investor Days. Ework operates as an intermediary in the workforce market, connecting organisations with workforce resources. This includes freelance consultants and consulting companies. Alongside its core offering of consultant placement, a significant part of its business consists of add-on services such as background checks and financial services, which have recently gained good traction. Challenging market, but signs of stabilisation The new CEO made a good impression and has spent his first month in the company meeting clients and visiting Ework's offices. The IT consultancy market as a whole remains challenging, with subdued volumes and price pressure due to an oversupply of consultants acting as headwinds. Nevertheless, Ework's recent focus on gross margins has yielded significant improvements (the gross margin in Q3 was the highest since Q2'18), though this has not offset the impact of lower sales volumes on earnings growth. Regarding end markets, Ework stated that tariff-related markets (e.g. automotive) are facing headwinds due to cost-saving measures among larger customers. However, the public sector and telecoms are starting to show positive signs. Additionally, the number of requests for project leaders — a leading indicator — has recently increased. Demand for AI-related competence has increased threefold, and Ework has started utilising AI tools to improve its matching processes, yielding greater efficiency and precision - this should help operational leverage once volumes improve. Looking ahead to 2026, Mr Almgren's main priority is around sales processes, ensuring that Ework's growth is at least in line with the market. Finally, Ework will likely... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2025/12/ework-group---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2025/12/ework-group---feedback-from-abgscs-investor-days/ Wed, 03 Dec 2025 09:00:06 GMT SE0002402701 Analys Rail and Kvalitetsbygg sold, while we see... ...strong price indications on Power... ...and potential acquisitions should grow Inspect Q3 highlights Qben Infra reported Q3 sales of SEK 253m (SEK 793m inc. Rail and Kvalitetsbygg) vs. ABGSCe of SEK 793m (incl. Rail and Kvalitetsbygg). Rail and Kvalitetsbygg are now in the process of being divested. Rail is ~20% divested and the remaining part is expected to be sold in January in a second tranche. Kvalitetsbygg, a part of Construction, has been sold in a management buyout during Q4. The transaction still has to be approved by Swedish authorities, but management say this is proceeding as planned. Adj. EBITA was SEK -48m (ex. Rail and Kvalitetsbygg), corresponding to a -19% adj. EBITA margin, held back by a SEK 58m amortisation on properties and PPA in the remaining part of Construction. Outlook and estimate changes The remaining parts of Qben: Power, Inspect and Construction (Team Bygg) have good demand. According to Qben, Power has received indicative offers at the same level as Rail was sold at. Rail was sold at a EV/EBITA of 8.8x, indicating an EV of SEK ~300m on our '25 estimates. Qben guides that both Power and Inspect will have 10% EBITA margins in '26 and that sales will be about SEK 1.6bn, leaving EBITA at ~SEK 153m in '26. Qben also expects a net cash position of SEK 390m when the payments from the divestments are in (approx. during '27e). This will enable Qben to continue its focus on value-adding acquisitions. Looking forward Qben Infra is to be seen as an investment company. According to management, the transactions will free up resources that can be better utilised in the other fast-growing infrastructure business areas (Inspect, Residential development and Power), which are benefiting from healthy market activity and a growing order backlog. Following completion of the divestment, the Construction business area will consist of an operation that develops residential properties in Nor... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qben-infra/Equity-research/2025/12/qben-infra---sharpening-the-core-platforms/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qben-infra/Equity-research/2025/12/qben-infra---sharpening-the-core-platforms/ Mon, 01 Dec 2025 17:00:05 GMT SE0023114012 Analys Public divestment completed (EV SEK 850m)... ... but unexpected change at the helm CFO Sophie Reinius to become acting CEO Sale of Public completed... This afternoon, Formpipe announced that it has completed the sale of its Public business to STG for a total EV of SEK 850m. This was an expected announcement, and our forecasts have already been adjusted for this divestment. What remains is Lasernet: a global document and customer communication management software suite with ~SEK 240m in r12m sales, of which ~60% are SaaS revenues. Of the sale proceeds, SEK 775m is in the form of a cash payment at closing, meaning that Formpipe will have a net cash position of SEK 764m by the end of 2025e. Although the ultimate outcome is still uncertain, we expect that ~SEK 600m (SEK 11/share) of this will be distributed through an extraordinary dividend in 2026. ... but also an unexpected change of CEO Furthermore, in conjunction with today's press release, it was announced that Magnus Svenningson will step down as CEO on 31 December 2025. This was unexpected, as we had received no indication that this was potentially going to happen, and our assessment is that Formpipe has fared relatively well since he took the helm in Q3'23 (despite several external headwinds, including a slowdown in the momentum for Temenos). We speculate that this may reflect a desire for a CEO with greater Microsoft Dynamics expertise, given that this is Lasernet's most important platform. Until a permanent replacement has been found, the company's CFO, Sophie Reinius, will serve as acting CEO. Finally, Formpipe is also announcing some other changes to its organisation, which will drive cost efficiency gains of ~15%. This is a welcome move, as we argue that there is good potential for higher margins; especially as the divestment means that group common costs are currently at an elevated share of sales (~10% of sales). https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2025/12/formpipe---surprising-change-at-the-helm/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2025/12/formpipe---surprising-change-at-the-helm/ Mon, 01 Dec 2025 14:00:03 GMT SE0001338039 Analys Will lower financial expenses by SEK 2m per year We estimate ND/EBITDA of ~1.4x in Q4'25e Better terms, improved financial visibility Directed rights issue, loan facility and repurchase of warrants This week, Clavister announced a directed share issue of SEK 167m, ~62m shares, representing 17% dilution. This will be used to repay all outstanding debt (including issued warrants) to the European Investment Bank (EIB), alongside other organic growth initiatives. In combination with the rights issue, Clavister will take in a loan facility of SEK 100m from Swedbank. This loan will be amortised over a five-year period (SEK 20m per year), and will lower Clavister's financial expenses by ~SEK 2m per year. Moreover, the company will repurchase ~15m warrants at SEK 2.70, which is the same price as the rights issue. Impact for Clavister The total dilution is around 17% for existing shareholders. The refinancing shifts Clavister to a facility with better terms and lower financing costs, resulting in a better financial position and improved earnings. Effectively, Clavister raises ~SEK 40m in deployable cash for its organic growth initiatives (we estimate ~SEK 8m in transaction costs). We estimate that this results in net debt decreasing by ~70% q-o-q, bringing leverage from ND/EBITDA of 4.7x to ~1.4x for Q4'25e. Our thoughts Clavister's leverage profile has been a structural constraint on growth for several years, with the EIB facility carrying unfavourable terms. Despite this, the company has continued to grow and gradually improved its cost base. The refinancing marks a meaningful turning point: the EIB debt is fully removed, the EUR exposure disappears, and Clavister transitions to a more conventional Swedish banking relationship with Swedbank, something that would have been unlikely only a few years back. In our view, the new facility provides materially better terms, improves financial visibility, and reduces risk. Combined with th... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2025/11/clavister---directed-rights-issue-of-sek-167m/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2025/11/clavister---directed-rights-issue-of-sek-167m/ Sun, 30 Nov 2025 21:15:01 GMT SE0005308558 Analys An organic decline of 3% in Q3 We cut sales estimates by 4-2% for '26e-'27e Positioned for a market recovery in '26e Q3 numbers: low utilisation to weigh on results Ogunsen reported sales of SEK 100m, a decrease of 3% y-o-y. Consulting revenues were flat y-o-y at SEK 94m (94% of total sales), while recruitment declined 30% y-o-y, to SEK 6m. The quarter was marked by continued low utilisation, although the number of consultants on assignment increased y-o-y, which we believe marks an early sign of improving demand. EBIT came in at SEK 6m, with a 6% margin. The company continues to carry excess capacity, maintaining a larger workforce than current demand supports. The average headcount declined by 5% y-o-y to 344 FTEs in Q3, which might reflect natural attrition rather than active downsizing. We cut estimates and expect market tailwinds in '26e Due to the recent change of analyst and subsequent review of estimates, we cut sales estimates by 4-2% for '26-'27e and cut EBIT by ~20% for the same period. Looking at '26e, we believe Ogunsen will have a sales increase of 3%, driven by better calendar effects and better utilisation. We believe the company will reach EBITDA margins of 9%, supported by operational leverage. Early signs of momentum Consulting demand strengthened through the quarter, while recruitment remains soft. Net FTEs declined y-o-y and we expect net recruitment to remain muted in Q4 as well. That said, we believe the market will start stabilising in H1'26, which should lead to positive organic growth for the company. We also see this as cyclical in the market, rather than structural. Ogunsen is trading at a 10x EV/EBIT for '26e, and has a net cash position, which provides a solid foundation as market conditions improve. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ogunsen/Equity-research/2025/11/ogunsen---carrying-capacity-for-when-demand-turns/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ogunsen/Equity-research/2025/11/ogunsen---carrying-capacity-for-when-demand-turns/ Fri, 28 Nov 2025 08:15:04 GMT SE0008406151 Analys Encouraging ACV growth and margins Small sales revisions, but '26e-'27e EBIT up 29-28% on lower costs 2.7x EV/sales in '26e (excl. the anticipated DPS) Sequential improvements and good cost control Q3 was the first quarter in which Formpipe's Public Segment was de-consolidated from the P&L, as it is now being treated as a discontinued operation following the recent sale (closing expected on 1 December). The remaining segment, Lasernet, saw good sequential improvements, with 13% organic y-o-y growth to sales of SEK 61m — 2% ahead of our forecast. This was mainly driven by good momentum with Dynamics customers. Encouragingly, deal activity with Temenos has also started to improve, resulting in a SaaS ACV of SEK 8m (ABGSCe SEK 8m), up from SEK 7m in Q3'24. Although SaaS ACV is the most important KPI, S&M ACV was SEK -2m due to some churn, which will impact S&M sales in the coming quarters. Nonetheless, cost control was better than we anticipated, with adj. opex coming in 4% below our forecast. Positive earnings revisions due to lower opex assumptions We make small revisions to our sales forecasts (slightly lower assumptions for S&M), but raise '26e-'27e EBIT by 29-28% on the back of lower opex assumptions as we extrapolate the lower-than-expected Q3 figure. We now anticipate ~10% organic growth per year over the coming years and an adj. EBITDA margin of 21% in 2027e, up from 13% in 2025e (pro forma). Potential extraordinary dividend Formpipe will disclose more details on the outlook and management's thoughts on capital allocation in conjunction with the CMD in March. The divestment will give Formpipe an elevated cash position of SEK 764m in 2025, and we believe that an extraordinary dividend of SEK 11/share (~SEK 600m) could potentially come in 2026. Adjusting for the anticipated cash distribution, the valuation sits at 2.7x EV/sales in 2026e. For comparison, Nordic software peers are at a median of 3.6x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2025/11/formpipe---positive-revisions-on-leaner-costs/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2025/11/formpipe---positive-revisions-on-leaner-costs/ Thu, 27 Nov 2025 13:15:24 GMT SE0001338039 Analys Strategic pivot into the SOFC market Rights issue of ~SEK 87.5m initiated to strengthen liquidity Management optimistic on '26 outlook, despite market uncertainty Broadening focus to support diversified growth In its Q3'25 report, Impact Coatings announced a short-term strategic reorientation. To diversify growth and reduce reliance on traditional hydrogen applications, the company is broadening its focus to a new area, solid-oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) for data centres, a gas-fueled but hydrogen-ready segment, offering near-term commercial potential. The company says that the strategic shift to SOFCs is a "natural product and market fit", with limited to no further investments needed to cater to the market. Rights issue of ~SEK 87.5m to strengthen liquidity A lack of System sales and weak market conditions in 2025 have put pressure on the company's cash position. Impact Coatings has therefore initiated a rights issue of ~SEK 87.5m at SEK 1.5 per share, of which 2.7% is guaranteed, in order to strengthen its liquidity. The subscription period ends on December 5. Assuming the rights issue is fully subscribed, it will result in a dilution effect of ~40%. Moreover, in Q2, the company introduced cost-cutting measures to lower the cost base. These have already begun to bear fruit, with lower operating costs in Q3'25. The measures are expected to have full effect in Q1'26. Management optimistic on the outlook At its CMD on November 24, management communicated a positive outlook heading into 2026, despite reiterating challenging market environments. The company expects Coating Services revenues in '26 to exceed '25 levels (Q3'25 LTM sales of SEK 31m). Most notably, Impact Coatings expects to sell systems within all four of its application areas (Energy, Automotive, Electronics, and Luxury Goods), indicating System sales of SEK 80-100m in '26. While this seems positive, the outlook should be taken with caution due to the uncertain market. We currently h... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2025/11/impact-coatings---cmd-a-step-into-the-power-generation-market/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/impact_coatings/Equity-research/2025/11/impact-coatings---cmd-a-step-into-the-power-generation-market/ Thu, 27 Nov 2025 13:15:05 GMT SE0001279142 Analys European Commission drafts proposal for non-renewal of Selektope Limited impact on near-term estimates, EU ~2% of total sales Voting expected to occur some time in H1'26, final decision in mid-26 European Commission drafts proposal for non-renewal of Selektope This morning, I-Tech issued a press release stating that the European Commission has drafted a proposal for the non-renewal of Medetomidine (Selektope). The draft implementation act, which is yet to be published, will be discussed at the Standing Committee on Biocidal Products (SCBP) meeting taking place at 10 December. Several steps need to be completed before the final decision is made, and I-Tech expects voting on the implementation act to occur some time in H1'26. We expect a final decision in mid-26. Limited impact to near-term estimates In the event of an EU ban, the direct effects on I-Tech would be relatively minor, given that the EU currently accounts for around 2% of I-Tech's sales and ~10% of its TAM. Remain positive on long-term prospects We believe it is likely that the draft will be approved, however, we remain positive on the company's long-term outlook given its small exposure to the EU market. That said, there is always a risk that a ban could have a negative impact on I-Tech's attempts to enter other markets, such as the US (although this is a small market), or on re-application processes in regions where it has already achieved approval (most importantly Japan, South Korea, China). There is also the risk that paint companies may be deterred from using Selektope in other markets as well. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2025/11/i-tech---proposed-non-renewal-of-selektope-in-the-eu/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2025/11/i-tech---proposed-non-renewal-of-selektope-in-the-eu/ Thu, 27 Nov 2025 08:45:04 GMT SE0011167725 Analys NetApp +5% on EPS beat, but reiterated low growth revenue guidance Dell +3%, storage revenues declined -1%, outlook suggests small improvements Supportive for our slowly recovering growth expectations, share at 8.5x EV/EBITA NetApp share up primarily on EPS beat NetApp reported its Q2'26 yesterday evening overall better-than-expected with sales up 3% y-o-y and +1% vs cons, EPS +9% vs cons, and product sales primarily behind the beat. New billings were up 4% y-o-y in the quarter. US public sector is expected to remain somewhat slow for another 6 months due to the governmental shutdown, which doesn’t affect Proact as a European partner. NetApp left its FY revenue guidance unchanged but raised EPS by 2%. In terms of commentary, it highlighted strong demand for AI solutions, first-party and marketplace cloud storage services, and all-flash offerings. NetApp also highlighted near-term headwinds from USPS revenues, which should indicate a somewhat better momentum outside of Americas, which is what matters for Praoct. Share +5% in after-market. Dell storage revenues remain at no-growth mode Dell also reported yesterday evening, its Q3'26 report, with overall slightly better-than-expected numbers and guidance and the share was up +3% in the after-market. Dell as a group is gaining most from an accelerated AI momentum for servers and networking revenues (up 37% y-o-y), and guides to ship AI servers for USD 9.4bn in Q4, making FY'26 to USD 25bn, up 150% y-o-y. Looking at the relevant segment for Proact, storage revenues were down -1% y-o-y and +2% vs consensus. Dell commented that it expects more data generated over the next 3 years than all preceding history, and that ~80% will be unstructured. This drives the need of increased storage capabilities ahead. Current slow-growth environment expected to improve Proact is a value-added partner to both NetApp and Dell, and the correlation between Proact's system sales and the respective partner's growt... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2025/11/proact---dell-and-netapp-shares-up-slightly-on-reports/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2025/11/proact---dell-and-netapp-shares-up-slightly-on-reports/ Wed, 26 Nov 2025 11:00:03 GMT SE0015961222 Analys Q3: high GM, but soft device sales and ARPU Doro conversion rate 25% in D2C channels (13% in Q2) Estimates slightly down, but positive with strong Doro conversion rate Adj. EBITDA NOK 76m, 2% above ABGSCe Revenue was NOK 510m, 4% below ABGSCe of NOK 533m, The gross margin was 51.6% vs. ABGSCe of 47.5%. Opex was NOK 191m, 7% higher than ABGSCe of NOK 178m. There was a NOK 4.6m one-off relating to change of CEO in Doro, adjusted for this opex was 187m. This gave an adj. EBITDA of NOK 76m, 2% above ABGSCe of NOK 75m, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.1% vs. 11.8% in Q3'24. Capex was NOK 13m (ABGSCe NOK 15m), resulting in adj. EBITDA-capex of NOK 64m, 6% above ABGSCe of NOK 60m. Lower device sales and ARPU Total device revenue was NOK 420m, 3% below ABGSCe of NOK 435m. Kids & Youth device sales of NOK 158m was 10% below ABGSCe, and Senior device sales (Doro) of NOK 263m was 1% above ABGSCe. Service revenue was NOK 90m, 8% below ABGSCe of NOK 98m, corresponding to a growth of 20% y-o-y. Number of Kids subscriptions ended at 443k as pre-announced, of which 291k were Connectivity (ABGSCe 294k), 104k were Premium (ABGSCe 105k), 35k were B2B (ABGSCe 31k), and 12k were Service fee (ABGSCe 12k). This gave a monthly ARPU of NOK 72 vs. ABGSCe of NOK 78, which compares to NOK 83 in Q3'24. Cons to lower estimates, but high Doro conversion rate is positive Xplora now says the subcriber conversion rate for Doro has increased to 25% in Nordic D2C channels. This compares to 13% in Q2. This is very positive as converting Doro phone sales to subscriptions is the most important thing that Xplora needs to deliver on going forward. It also says that it has so far signed 900 retail stores that will sell doro phones with subscriptions with rollout starting in Q1-Q2’26. We expect cons to lower estimates on higher costs and lower revenues. Conf call at 08:00 CEST. Xplora will host a conf call at 08:00 CEST. Xplora will also host a CMU today after the ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2025/11/xplora-technologies---doro-conversion-rate-now-25/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2025/11/xplora-technologies---doro-conversion-rate-now-25/ Wed, 26 Nov 2025 07:30:03 GMT NO0010895782 Analys ~SEK 26m defence order announced earlier today Backlog of ~SEK 390m Provides additional visibility New defence order worth ~SEK 26m Clavister has received an order worth ~SEK 26m from BAE Systems Hägglunds for its CyberArmour solution, to be integrated into additional CV90 vehicles for a Nordic nation. Given the timing and scope, we believe this order is linked to Denmark's new CV90 contract with BAE Systems (announced on 21 November), which includes 44 additional CV90s, link here . We see this as positive, as CyberArmour is already integrated into the CV90s, enabling a scalable revenue stream as new orders are placed. Deliveries are likely to be scheduled between '27e and '30e. Defence keeps growing The total backlog for Clavister in Q3 was ~SEK 360m, amounting to ~SEK 390m with the new order. Assuming ~40-50% gross margins, and the fact that Clavister requires few new investments to deliver on the contracts, we see high incremental cash flow potential from the current defence pipeline. Helps de-risk consensus estimates With deliveries likely to be scheduled in '27e-'30e, orders of this kind generally help de-risk FactSet consensus estimates. Typically, estimates reflect metrics two to three years in the future, and for companies such as Clavister, with long contracts, these types of contracts help provide incremental visibility to both sales and earnings. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2025/11/clavister---secures-defence-order-of-sek-26m/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2025/11/clavister---secures-defence-order-of-sek-26m/ Tue, 25 Nov 2025 20:15:02 GMT SE0005308558 Analys Q3: +24% sales growth, 1.3% adj. EBIT margin '25e-'27e adj. EBIT up 29-3% Continues to show improvements Another step forward Tempest continues to deliver improvements, with sales 13% and EBIT SEK 1.1m ahead of ABGSCe in Q3. The performance was a result of the significant focus on the core business that the new CEO (although he is the founder of the company and was CEO until '22) has been keen to improve. Guarding grew sales by 35% and EBITDA from SEK 2.7m to 9.7m. A solid improvement, but we believe there is more potential as planning and staffing can be more efficient. The strong growth was a result of an establishment with a new client, and while the establishment has increased personnel expenses, this is now starting to stabilise which will improve margins ahead. Risk Solutions grew 7% organically, and improved its margin from 1.5% in Q3'24 to 5.6% in Q3'25, mostly due to Denmark. Looking forward, management pointed to good demand, and with its increased focus on the core business, we think Tempest is well positioned to capture the momentum. '25e sales up 3% and adj. EBIT up 29% We raise our '25e sales by 3% on the good performance and momentum in Guarding. We expect the performance to continue as Tempest maintains its core business focus and efficiency improvements, while Denmark and the UK are also making progress. Q3 is Tempest's strongest quarter, but we expect the development to continue in the right direction. Focus on core operations We believe the company has taken important steps throughout the year with the divestment of the US and the turnaround in Denmark. There are further efficiencies to be gained from the newly signed contracts in Guarding, as profitability typically increases gradually after the initial start-up period. This is because the additional costs associated with extra hiring decrease, planning and efficiency improve and Tempest can sell additional services that improve profitability. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2025/11/tempest-security---guarding-the-core/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/tempest-security/Equity-research/2025/11/tempest-security---guarding-the-core/ Mon, 24 Nov 2025 07:30:02 GMT SE0010469221 Analys Waiting for sales of Dållebo, Boarp and Fågelås wind projects ~470 MW under construction Trading at '26e-'27e P/Es of 4x-6x Waiting for divestment of Dållebo, Boarp and Fågelås Eolus reported Q3 net sales of SEK 200m (cons. 123m; 24m LY), driven by revenue recognition in Pome. Adj. EBIT was SEK -69m (cons. -62m). In the coming quarters, we expect divestments of the onshore wind projects Dållebo, Boarp and Fågelås (88 MW). A 15-year PPA was signed in Q3 for a major share of production, which should support project-level financing, free up tied capital and attract investors through long-term revenue visibility. The Roccasecca BESS project (127 MW) also advanced to construction with a tolling agreement securing future cash flows over a considerable period. Eolus aims to divest Roccasecca early in the process, unlike Pome where construction risk was retained. Estimate changes and outlook We raise our ’25e sales by SEK 900m on higher-than-expected capex in Fågelås, Boarp and Dållebo. As these projects near completion, full capex should be reimbursed and recognised in the P&L upon divestment, which we currently have in Q4 in our estimates. However, estimates should be interpreted with caution, as the outcome depends on several factors that remain uncertain. Moreover, we lower our project margin expectations and make some timing adjustments in the portfolio. The lowered margins combined with anticipated cost savings lead to a total '25e-'27e EBIT cut of SEK 70m. Strategic calibration in Q3 During Q3, Eolus refined its strategy with three focus areas: 1) Increase early-stage transactions, as in Fageråsen; 2) Tighten project prioritisation to focus on highest-value opportunities; 3) Elevate battery storage and hybrid projects to core technologies alongside onshore wind. Eolus’ current ~25 GW portfolio includes ~470 MW under construction. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Equity-research/2025/11/eolus---divestments-pending-strategic-shift-ahead/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Equity-research/2025/11/eolus---divestments-pending-strategic-shift-ahead/ Fri, 21 Nov 2025 07:45:09 GMT SE0007075056 Analys Strong Q3 production of 2.9kboe/d vs. ABGSCe 2.4kboe/d '26e EBITDAX up 3% on higher Brage production Fair value range of NOK 1.2-4.5/sh Q3: EBITDA NOK 122m vs. ABGSCe 85m due to overlift effect Q3 production was 2.9kboe/d vs. our estimate of 2.4kboe/d and 1.9kboe/d in Q2. The increase from Q2 was driven by the new Sognefjord East well, which commenced production on 30 June with a strong initial production rate. As a result, PNO reported revenue of NOK 169m, 6% above ABGSCe of NOK 160m. EBITDA of NOK 122m was significantly above ABGSCe of NOK 85m, but primarily driven by an overlift effect. PNO sells a significant portion of its volumes through a monthly sales contract. When it lifts more volumes under this agreement than its entitlement, it records the gain on a net basis under opex, which resulted in net production costs of NOK 25m vs. our estimate of NOK 45m. Hence, this effect should even out over the next quarters. PNO exited Q3 with a cash position of NOK 22m, vs. NOK 26m in Q2, and we expect a cash position of ~NOK 40m at end of Q4. We raise '25e-'26e EBITDAX by 5-3% We raise our '26e Brage production estimate from 2.0 kboe/d to 2.2 kboe/d, reflecting a higher expected contribution from the ongoing drilling of a new well (A15), with production start expected in Q1'26. We also highlight the new discoveries at Talisker in Q2, adding ~NOK 0.75/sh to our NAV (see p. 5). The positive underlying revisions are partly offset by applying our latest oil market view as described in Oil price could be troughing , reiterating our long-term oil price forecast of USD 80, while lowering our '26 Brent assumption to USD 70 (73) and USD/NOK to 10.0 (10.5). In summary, we lift '25e-'26e EBITDAX by 5-3%. Fair value range of NOK 1.2-4.5/sh We estimate a NAV of NOK 4.1/sh for PNO and assess a fair value range of NOK 1.2-4.5/sh. Working backwards from the current share price of NOK 1.30/sh, we argue that, all else equal, this implies a discounted oil price ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/petrolia-noco/Equity-research/2025/11/petrolia-noco---strong-q3-production-raising-2026e/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/petrolia-noco/Equity-research/2025/11/petrolia-noco---strong-q3-production-raising-2026e/ Thu, 20 Nov 2025 17:00:04 GMT CY0102630916 Analys Faces similar issues to Betco, indicating market-wide issues '26e-'27e EBITDA down 3% Trading below peers at 4x '26e EV/EBITDA Keeps guidance after weak September sports win margin Q3 was a bit softer than we had expected. Revenue was 3% below our expectations, while adj. EBITDA was 9% below our expectations. The revenue decline was ~25% y-o-y, however, we expect Gentoo to return to growth early next year, as the comps become significantly easier. We note that the company's restatements were positive for both revenue and EBITDA for H1'25. Considering a mechanically stronger H1'25 revenue and EBITDA due to the restatements, a maintained guidance with respect to revenue and EBITDA technically implies a downgrade for fiscal year '25. Importantly, cash flow excluding M&A was nearly EUR 4m in the quarter. From a leverage perspective, this is positive, as Gentoo should start deleveraging in Q4'25e, and reach a leverage ratio closer to 2x by the end of '26e, according to our updated estimates. Minor estimate revisions We make minor estimate revisions, cutting '26e-'27e revenue by 1% and EBITDA by 3%, following the report. Given that Gentoo's sports margin was weak in September, like that of Better Collective, we argue that the miss shouldn't necessarily be fully extrapolated, even though it is a business reality. In contrast, Better Collective's wording was more positive regarding Brazil (notably the most optimistic on Brazil in the sector). Moreover, readers should note that we raise EBIT in '25e-'27e mechanically due to changes in D&A assumptions following the report. Trading at 4x '26e EV/EBITDA Gentoo is trading at 4.0x '26e EV/EBITDA, approximately 35% below Better Collective but around 10% above Gambling.com at 3.6x FactSet consensus '26e EV/EBITDA on average. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2025/11/gentoo-media---we-expect-deleveraging-to-start-in-q425/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2025/11/gentoo-media---we-expect-deleveraging-to-start-in-q425/ Thu, 20 Nov 2025 10:45:03 GMT US36467X2062 Analys Continued margin expansion driven by DOCS EBIT estimates raised by 2-3% for '26e-'27e on scaling potential Trading at 13x EV/EBIT, ~20% below its historical median Growing SaaS contribution Generic reported a slightly better Q3, with sales of SEK 45m, up 5% y-o-y. Gross margins remained robust at 45%, representing a 15% y-o-y increase. DOCS continues to grow, and has now penetrated ~24% of Swedish municipalities. We see this as positive, as there remains room for further penetration and the potential to reach adjacent customer segments. We believe this will continue to support gross margin improvements, as SaaS products will potentially increase as a share of total sales. SMS continues to be sensitive in volumes, but we expect a seasonal uplift in Q4 driven by Black Friday and Christmas-related activity. Overall, Generic is reallocating personnel and increasing internal responsibility, which we see as positive for sharpening its focus on three key areas: 1) sales executions, 2) its technical platform, and 3) security. We raise estimates on an improved outlook We raise sales by 1% for '26e-'27e, as we continue to see a slight improvement in sales. We also raise EBIT by 2-3% for the same period, as we expect the company to further benefit from operating leverage and the continued scaling of its platform. Positive momentum in RCS Generic is currently trading at 13x EV/EBIT, which is ~20% below its historical median. RCS is gaining traction in the US with rising volumes. Apple is expected to launch in the Nordics next year, which could serve as an important catalyst. Generic is already seeing rising customer interest, which we believe indicates strong potential going forward. We think this development will continue to strengthen the company's profitability over time. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/generic/Equity-research/2025/11/generic---scaling-efficiently-for-margin-improvement/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/generic/Equity-research/2025/11/generic---scaling-efficiently-for-margin-improvement/ Wed, 19 Nov 2025 15:15:03 GMT SE0001790791 Analys Lasernet +13% organic growth y-o-y, +2% vs. ABGSCe 13% adj. EBIT margin (vs. ABGSCe 4%) Cons. to lift '26e-'27e EBIT by ~10% Q3 results Sales SEK 61m (+2% vs ABGSC 59m), EBITDA 9m (+25% vs ABGSC 7m), adj. EBIT 8m (+273% vs ABGSC 2m). Cash flow was strong, albeit mainly driven by the divested business. Overall, a good report, with much better margins than expected on the back of lower opex. Q3 thoughts This was the first quarter with Formpipe's Public segment deconsolidated from the PnL, as it is now treated as discontinued operations following the recent sale. The segment that remains - Lasernet - saw organic sales +13% y-o-y, which was 2% ahead of our forecast. Meanwhile, costs were lower, resulting in adj. EBITDA margin (before group costs) of 32% (vs. 17% Q3'24). Including group costs, the adj. EBITDA margin was 21% (8%), whereas the y-o-y improvement was driven by operational leverage on higher sales coupled with recent cost outs. ARR grew 7% y-o-y, which was in line with +7% y-o-y in Q2. SaaS ACV was SEK 8m (ABGSCe SEK 8m), up from SEK 7m in Q3'24, whereas Formpipe says that momentum with Dynamics is good. Encouragingly, momentum with Temenos is also picking up (which we have recently expected to occur). Estimate changes and valuation Formpipe's share is -14% over L3M at is trading at 2.1x EV/sales on our unrevised 2026 estimates. Following the Q3 report, we expect consensus to raise '26e-'27e EBIT by ~10% on lower cost assumptions. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2025/11/formpipe---better-margins-than-expected/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2025/11/formpipe---better-margins-than-expected/ Wed, 19 Nov 2025 08:30:03 GMT SE0001338039 Analys Q3 fairly in line, EBIT adj. SEK -69m (consensus -62m) Savings program initiated, annual savings of ~SEK 60m 15y PPA signed for Fågelås, Dållebo and Boarp (88 MW) Q3 fairly in line, savings program implemented Eolus reported net sales of SEK 200m (vs. consensus 126m and 24m LY), driven mostly by revenue recognition in the US BESS project Pome (~90% completed at the end of Q3). EBIT adj. was SEK -69m (vs. consensus -62m), adjusted for the impact of U.S. tax law changes, which has affected the ability to use certain purchased wind power components. These components were therefore sold, resulting in a negative EBIT impact of SEK -18m in the quarter. Moreover, EBIT was negatively affected by SEK -26m due to changes in the expected project margin in Pome. Due to continued market uncertainty, the company has initiated a cost savings program with the aim to reduce costs by ~SEK 60m annually from '26 through efficiency improvements. Estimate changes and significant events in the quarter On numbers alone '25e-'27e sales changes by 3-7% and EBIT adj. by SEK -7m. In July, Eolus and Dala Vind sold the jointly developed onshore wind project Fageråsen (238 MW) to OX2, for which Eolus received a payment of SEK 6.6m. Additional payments are expected once the buyer makes a final investment decision. The buyer's goal is for Fagersåsen to be fully operational in early '28. Furthermore, in September, Eolus and a counterparty entered into a 15-year PPA for a significant proportion of the output from the Fågelås, Dållebo and Boarp onshore wind projects, which we view positively. We think this will contribute to strengthened interest among buyers. Valuation The share has returned -30% L3M (vs. OMXSPI flat), and is currently trading 3x-5x P/E '26e-'27e on our pre-report estimates. The company will host a conference call of the Q3 results at 10:00 CET. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, C... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Equity-research/2025/11/eolus---no-big-surprises-in-q3/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eolus/Equity-research/2025/11/eolus---no-big-surprises-in-q3/ Wed, 19 Nov 2025 07:45:02 GMT SE0007075056 Analys Q3 adj. EBITDA 11% below FactSet consensus Raises operating cash flow guidance Restatements yielded higher H1'25 revenue & adj. EBITDA Q3 outcome Gentoo reported Q3 sales of EUR 22.7m, which is down 23% y-o-y and 9% q-o-q, 4% below ABGSCe and 7% below Factset consensus. Moreover, adj. EBITDA of EUR 9.3m was 14% below ABGSCe and 11% below consensus In similar fashion to Better Collective, the sports margin was weak in September. However, Brazil appears to have been a bit weaker. Opex was slightly higher than we had anticipated, contributing somewhat to the adj. EBITDA miss. That said, the bulk of the aforementioned miss is due to the sales miss. Cash flow guidance upgraded Gentoo maintains its revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance. However, it has upgraded its cash flow guidance, which is positive for the company's financial position. Given the restatements, which impacted H1'25 adj. EBITDA by EUR +2.2m, the maintained adj. EBITDA guidance is technically an underlying downgrade based on our initial impressions of the report. However, given the maintained adj. EBITDA guidance, we expect the net mechanical estimate revisions to be flat. Mechanical estimate revisions flat The Gentoo share is down 67% YTD, compared to OMXSGI, which is up 9% YTD. Based on our unrevised estimates, Gentoo is trading a bit below 6x '25e EV/EBITDA. Following the report, we expect consensus to maintain its EBITDA estimates, however, when considering the positive restatement impact, this implies negative underlying revisions. More details are likely to be presented on the conference call at 10.00 CET. Link to the webcast here . Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data, FactSet. Q3'24-Q2'25 figures are not adjusted for the recently announced restatements. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2025/11/gentoo-media---solid-cash-flow-guidance/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2025/11/gentoo-media---solid-cash-flow-guidance/ Tue, 18 Nov 2025 08:00:02 GMT US36467X2062 Analys Q3e: -22% y-o-y top-line decline ABGSCe in line with low end of '25e guidance Trading ~10% below peers at under 6x '25e EV/EBITDA Q3 expectations We expect Q3 sales of EUR 23.7m, down 22% y-o-y and down 3% sequentially. Moreover, we expect adj. EBITDA of EUR 10.9m, which corresponds to a margin of 45.8%. Various peer commentaries suggest that Brazil is growing, albeit at a somewhat more muted rate than was expected prior to peer Q3 reports. Notably, FTDs were up 12% y-o-y in Q2, suggesting that operating momentum was positive going into Q3. Even though the picture on the sportsbook margin is somewhat mixed when considering Betsson and Kambi's strong margins compared to the weak sports-win margin of Better Collective, we believe that this should carry a smaller impact for Gentoo vs. Better Collective. Minor estimate cuts Peer Q3 reports have been decent, and they indicate that Brazil is growing but at a somewhat more muted rate than previously expected. On the back of this, we only make minor estimate revisions, cutting '25e-'27e sales and adj. EBITDA by 1% and 3%, respectively. These estimate changes imply that we are in line with the lower end of the company's '25 guidance with respect to both sales and adj. EBITDA. Trading at a bit under 6x '25e EV/EBITDA Gentoo is trading below 6x '25e EV/EBITDA, well below Better Collective (8.1x) but a bit above Gambling.com (4.3x). This means that Gentoo is trading 10% below the average of Better Collective and Gambling.com. Moreover, we highlight that Gentoo is trading at a '26e lease-adj. FCF yield excl. M&A of 25%. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2025/11/gentoo-media---operating-conditions-have-stabilised/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2025/11/gentoo-media---operating-conditions-have-stabilised/ Sun, 16 Nov 2025 21:15:02 GMT US36467X2062 Analys Sales -9% and EBIT -18% vs ABGSCe Weak utilisation in the consultant market Expecting market stabilisation in H1'26 Q3'25 details Ogunsen reported Q3'25 sales of SEK 100m (-9% vs. ABGSCe 109m), a 3% y-o-y decline. The company increased the number of consultants placed with clients, reflecting improving market demand, but lower utilisation and weak recruitment activity continued to weigh on sales. EBIT was SEK 6m (-18% vs. ABGSCe 7m), corresponding to a margin of 6% (8%). Signs of stabilisation emerging Consulting demand was broadly in line with last year, and strengthened through the quarter, ending above Q3 last year. The company also highlights early signs of stabilisation supported by higher activity levels. Recruitment remained subdues but showed sequential stabilisation. Estimate revisions While near-term demand indicators are improving, we still see overall market conditions as uncertain into Q4, with more solid stabilisation expected in H1'26. Based on the initial impression of the report, we expect consensus EBIT to come down by mid single-digit. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ogunsen/Equity-research/2025/11/ogunsen---shows-early-demand-uptick/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ogunsen/Equity-research/2025/11/ogunsen---shows-early-demand-uptick/ Fri, 14 Nov 2025 09:30:05 GMT SE0008406151 Analys Q3 was softer, but better cost control was positive '25e-'27e sales cut by 15-22% on lower volume expectations Positive momentum into Q4, driven by OEM recovery & R290 rollout Expect a return to growth and positive EBIT in Q4 Q3 sales were SEK 46m (-9% y-o-y and -22% vs. ABGSCe). The weaker sales were due to continued inventory build-up among OEM customers in the beginning of Q3, which eased towards the end of the quarter. Going into Q4, we expect a return to growth (we estimate SEK 63m, +18% y-o-y), driven by recovering OEM sales and the ongoing rollout of R290 heat pumps. Moreover, we expect the positive momentum from ES-branded sales to continue in the coming quarters (~40% of sales in Q3 vs. 30% LY), supported by the company's strengthened distribution network. Thanks to improved cost control, the EBIT miss was small (SEK -3m vs. ABGSCe -2m), with a return to positive EBIT (SEK 2m) expected in Q4. Furthermore, inventory levels were lower in the quarter, contributing to positive FCF of SEK +1m (-5m LY). Estimate changes and outlook We reduce '25e-'27e sales by 15-22% on lowered volume expectations. This, combined with better cost control, results in '25e EBIT of SEK -21m (previously SEK -18m), which then improves to SEK 7m (vs. previously 11m) in '26e. Looking ahead, we expect the share of Aira sales to decrease as the two-year contract period nears its end (we estimate a contribution of ~SEK 380m over the two years). Nevertheless, we expect a return to growth in '26e, driven by continued momentum in ES-branded products, new OEM partnerships, and the ongoing rollout of R290. Market recovery should provide support We continue to think that the long-term driver for both volumes and profitability is improving market conditions. Based on recent market data, we see signs that conditions are on track to improve, although the timing and pace of the recovery remain uncertain. ES is currently trading at 6x-2x EV/EBIT '26e-'27e. Due to our revis... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2025/11/energy-save---should-be-better-from-here/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2025/11/energy-save---should-be-better-from-here/ Fri, 14 Nov 2025 08:15:04 GMT SE0014428447 Analys Better-than-expected Q3 earnings, all segments up q-o-q We raise our EBIT estimates by 4-3% for '26e-'27e Trading at 12-8x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT, distributor peers at 15-14x Sequentially better across the board Ferronordic reported Q3 sales of SEK 1,060m, down 7% y-o-y, and EBIT of SEK 37m (ABGSCe 13m, FactSet cons 18m), for a margin of 3.5% (ABGSCe 1.2%, cons 1.7%). The beat was to an extent driven by lower group costs, which will likely normalise in coming quarters at a higher level on average. Despite this, the report marks a clear sequential step up in earnings in both the US and Germany, thanks to improved gross margins while opex was kept down. The net debt came down slightly to SEK 1,641m (1,679m in Q2), marking the third consecutive quarter of deleveraging. Overall the Q3 numbers showed sequential improvements across the board, but there is still a way to go for Ferronordic to reach its profitability target (>6% EBIT margin) as well as its leverage target (<3x ND/EBITDA). EBIT estimates raised despite lowered top line Despite Q3 revenue being 3% below our estimate, Ferronordic delivered significantly better profitability than we had expected, and the impressive cost control gives us more confidence to model higher margins ahead. As such, we lower our '26e-'27e sales estimates by 5% per year, but raise our EBIT margin estimates by 0.3pp, resulting in 4-3% EBIT upgrades overall. Likely more deleveraging to go before US expansion Ferronordic remains optimistic about its expansion opportunities in the US, and from a long-term perspective we see good prospects for it to execute on this strategy given Volvo CE's stated ambition to consolidate its US dealership network. However, as mentioned above, although the leverage is moving in the right direction it remains high, which we think limits expansion opportunities in the near term. Finally, the share is trading at 12-8x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT, which can be contrasted with our distributor peer g... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Equity-research/2025/11/ferronordic---sequentially-better-across-the-board/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ferronordic/Equity-research/2025/11/ferronordic---sequentially-better-across-the-board/ Thu, 13 Nov 2025 14:45:04 GMT SE0005468717 Analys Q3 a bump in the road Estimates down given more cautious view on activity pick-up 2025e-'27e EV/EBIT of 4-7x with easy comps Q3 softer than expected Catella delivered a Q3 report below both ABGSC and Factset consensus expectations, with EBIT coming in at SEK 7m (19m) compared to ABGSCe of SEK +30m. The results were negatively impacted by both lower transaction-based revenues and weaker Corporate Finance. The company showcased solid cost discipline in Q3, but the quarter is a seasonally weaker from a transaction point of view. We are, however more optimistic about Q4e and expect to see stronger results q-o-q. The variable fees within Investment mgmt. remain subdued, but we expect transaction activity to gradually increase, which will drive bottom-line earnings growth in the coming quarters. AUM stood out positively in Q3, coming in at SEK 160bn, up 2% q-o-q (SEK 4bn), slightly above ABGSCe of +1%. A more cautious view on activity reduces our estimates Following the softer than expected Q3, we pencil in a slower recovery in variable fees vs. our previous assumption, leading us to cut our assumptions in both Corporate Finance and Investment Management. Despite lower estimates, we continue to forecast strong earnings growth in the coming years, with the help of market activity picking up. 2025e-'27e EV/EBIT of 4-7x with a 6-8% dividend yield Despite Q3 falling short of our expectations, the company has, in our view, many attractive fundamentals, including an impressive AUM growth track-record within Investment Management. The balance sheet remains strong, providing Catella with the necessary resources should the right opportunities arise. The comps are easy, and we believe the transaction activity outlook is promising. This means that we expect strong yearly earnings expansion from here. In addition, when applying our latest earnings revisions, Catella is trading at an EV/EBIT of 4-7x for 2025e-'27e and offers an appealing dividend yield of... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2025/11/catella---optimistic-outlook-maintained/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2025/11/catella---optimistic-outlook-maintained/ Thu, 13 Nov 2025 13:00:05 GMT SE0000188518 Analys Q3 sales SEK 46m (vs. ABGSCe 60m), EBIT -3m (vs. ABGSCe -2m) Better than expected cost control Inventory levels down, FCF positive in the quarter (vs. SEK -5m LY) Q3 results Q3 sales were weaker than expected at SEK 46m (-9% y-o-y and -22% vs. ABGSCe 60m). The softer sales were mainly due to a continued inventory build-up among customers during the quarter. The company states that it saw a clear recovery in the OEM business primarily during the latter part of Q3 and sales to OEM customers have now resumed. Meanwhile, ES-branded sales were up both y-o-y and q-o-q and were SEK 18m (vs. 15m LY), reflecting stronger momentum in the company’s own distribution network. Despite weaker sales, the company demonstrated better cost control than expected thanks to its recent cost-saving initiatives and EBIT was SEK -3m (vs. ABGSCe -2m, -5m LY). Furthermore, it was encouraging to see that inventory levels decreased y-o-y, with FCF turning positive in the quarter at SEK 1m (-5m LY). The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 32m (52m LY). Estimate changes and outlook On numbers alone, '25e-'27e sales is impacted by negative 6-3% and EBIT by SEK -1m (vs. FY'25e estimate of SEK -18m). On outlook, ES guides for continued recovery and growth into Q4, supported by resumed OEM sales and the ongoing rollout of its R290 heat pump range, which is now subsidy-eligible across many key markets in Europe. Valuation Prior to today's report, the share was down -16% L3M and is on our pre-report estimates and is trading at 11x-4x '26e-'27e P/E on our pre-report estimates. The company will host a presentation of the Q3 results at 10:00. Quarterly outcome vs. expectations Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2025/11/energy-save---weaker-sales-but-better-cost-control/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2025/11/energy-save---weaker-sales-but-better-cost-control/ Thu, 13 Nov 2025 08:15:04 GMT SE0014428447 Analys Signs new phase-1 contract for Norrbotten power line Phase-2, starting 2026, could be the largest contract yet (~EUR136m) This and the Uppsala Tram project could drive substantial cons. revisions Another major power line project de-risks estimates NYAB announced a new phase-1 (planning phase) contract with Svenska Kraftnät regarding a new power line in Norrbotten, with project beginning immediately ( link to press release ). It also states that the phase-2 (expected to start in early 2026) could be worth ~EUR 136m. NYAB typically wins phase-2 contracts after it has won the phase-1, and we therefore think it is likely that it will sign this phase-2 as well, potentially within the coming months. This reduces estimate risk for 2026-2027 significantly. For reference, the current order backlog in Civil Engineering already supports growth in 2026 (order backlog was EUR 404m, +6% y-o-y in Q3) and we currently forecast 7% organic growth for NYAB in 2026e. In addition to this new power line project, which would be NYAB's largest contract so far, it has also signed a phase-1 contract for the Uppsala Tram project where the phase-2 (not signed yet) is estimated at ~EUR 450m (where NYAB could receive ~50% through the JV). We think it is likely that both are signed in the coming quarters, which we think would trigger at least 5-10% positive revisions to consensus estimates. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2025/11/nyab---new-power-line-contract-with-svenska-kraftnat/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2025/11/nyab---new-power-line-contract-with-svenska-kraftnat/ Wed, 12 Nov 2025 15:45:03 GMT SE0022242434 Analys Sales +3% and adj. EBITA +14% vs ABGSCe DOCS adoption >24% of municipalities Consensus adj. EBIT likely up mid single-digits Q3'25 details Generic reports Q3'25 sales of SEK 45m (+3% vs. ABGSCe 44m), supported by new contracts and an improved product mix. Gross profit came in at SEK 20m, a 15% y-o-y growth, corresponding to a gross margin of 45% (41% Q3'24), driven by a higher share of SaaS sales. Reported adj. EBITA came in at SEK 11m (+14% vs. ABGSCe 9m), reaching a margin of 24% (21% Q3'24), supported by good cost control and the increasing contribution form SaaS. DOCS penetration continues to grow DOCS continues to be a key growth driver for Generic, now reaching penetration of ~24% of Sweden's municipalities, as well as several regions and organisations within healthcare. We also see further potential for upselling, within e.g. SenderID, which should continue to support gross margin expansion. Regarding RCS, we believe a full rollout could occur next year, as we wait for Apple to launch in Nothern Europe. In the meantime, Generic is encouraging customers to start implementing RCS messaging already. Estimate revisions Looking ahead, we expect continued growth in SaaS products and increased upselling to further increase gross margins. Based on our initial impression of the report, we expect consensus adj. EBIT to come up mid single-digits. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/generic/Equity-research/2025/11/generic---margin-expansion-driven-by-saas/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/generic/Equity-research/2025/11/generic---margin-expansion-driven-by-saas/ Wed, 12 Nov 2025 07:15:04 GMT SE0001790791 Analys Educational day with presentations from core holdings Strong potential in Safe Life and DP Patterning Core assets in good shape and well-positioned for new opportunities Solid prospects for key assets Yesterday, Byggmästaren hosted Byggmästardagen 2025, featuring presentations from the Chairman, the CEO, and the CEOs of Safe Life (43% of GAV), Green Landscaping (25%), DP Patterning (5%), and Infrea (5%). 2025 has been an eventful year so far, with highlights including the Bridgepoint transaction in Safe Life, which led to a significant valuation uplift, and the capital allocation decisions announced in late September. The balance sheet remains strong despite the recent extraordinary dividend, and Byggmästaren continues to actively pursue new investments. However, in the medium-term, management does not expect a significant expansion in the number of holdings, signalling a preference for a concentrated portfolio of high-quality businesses. We therefore continue to see potential for structural activities and exits within the current portfolio and believe it is reasonable to expect one to two new platform investments over the next 1-2 years. There should also be room for additional dividends from existing holdings, including Team Olivia. While Green Landscaping’s recent performance has been disappointing, we see potential for strong earnings growth in 2026, and the tone from management was optimistic. Infrea has shown marked improvement and appears ready to resume M&A activity. Safe Life’s active acquisition strategy continues, with four new acquisitions announced on 7 November, together adding roughly SEK 250m in annual sales, and sellers’ management teams reinvesting in the company. Operationally, Safe Life continues to perform strongly (57% total growth and 10.5% adj. EBITA margin in Q3), with further margin upside through scaling its subscription model. DP Patterning set for major scale-up Although still a ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Equity-research/2025/11/byggmastaren---byggmastardagen-underscored-future-value-creation/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Equity-research/2025/11/byggmastaren---byggmastardagen-underscored-future-value-creation/ Tue, 11 Nov 2025 11:30:04 GMT SE0006510491 Analys Q3 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 16m vs. our PLN 5m Challenging markets Fair value range of SEK 17-60 Q3 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 16m vs. our PLN 5m Arctic Paper's Q3 report was a positive surprise, with reported Paper EBIT of ~ PLN 16m, compared to our estimate of ~ PLN 5m. The beat was driven by higher sales, as Paper sales were PLN 576m vs. our PLN 534m. Despite the soft market balance, the paper deliveries and realised price were higher than our estimates, which caused sales to come in above. Regarding the challenging market conditions, we expect continued pressure on prices and softer demand (also seasonal weak volumes in December) in Q4. We estimate clean Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 10m. We expect reported Paper EBIT of ~PLN 50m, due to ~PLN 40m in energy refunds received in Q4e. Regarding Pulp EBIT, we see early signs of a better pulp market, but Q4 will be affected by maintenance at Vallvik, which has an estimated impact on income of ~SEK 70-80m. We forecast Q4 Pulp EBIT of ~PLN -46m, which translates into clean group EBIT of ~PLN -37m (but reported likely ~PLN 3m). Challenging markets Pulpwood prices are dropping 10-15% across Scandinavia (Baltics -30%) as high inventories and low demand pressure the market. This is the first decline after a 100% rise over the last three years. The pulp market has its short-term issues, but hardwood prices are below the marginal producers' cash cost (unsustainable), and Suzano has announced +12% hikes. Paper markets are helped by 17% supply cuts in '24-'25, but slow demand leaves utilisation at only 75-80% in '25e. We need 3.5mt in more cuts (16%) to reach the historical average of ~89%. Fair value range of SEK 17-60 The company is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.5x, which is ~35% below its historical average. We have applied three valuation methodologies and arrive at a fair value range of SEK 17-60. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2025/11/arctic-paper---q3-was-strong-q4e-helped-by-energy-refunds/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2025/11/arctic-paper---q3-was-strong-q4e-helped-by-energy-refunds/ Mon, 10 Nov 2025 15:45:03 GMT PLARTPR00012 Analys Customer caution weighing on estimates We lower '25e-'27e sales by 11-4% and adj. EBIT by EUR 12m Large P&M deliveries delayed to '26e ('25e previously) Q3 a slow quarter, in line with expectations Cavotec reported sales in line with estimates of EUR 36m (-19% y-o-y), but order intake of EUR 36m was 18% lower than our estimate. The lower volumes in the quarter were mainly due to customer caution and the long delivery times for P&M orders. Some of the large orders placed in Q4'24 in P&M (~EUR 44m in order intake) that were due to be delivered in Q3/Q4'25 have experienced delays, impacting the quarter. The company expects the majority of these deliveries to start next year. Due to the lower volumes, and partly due to the ramp-up preparations for the upcoming large deliveries, costs were higher in the quarter and adj. EBIT was a negative EUR 0.2m (vs. ABGSCe -0.7m and EUR 3m LY). However, it was positive to see improving margins in the Industry segment (EBITDA margin of 16.3% vs. 8% LY) due to the company's ongoing change programs in the segment. We expect Industry's profitability to improve to an EBITDA margin of 12% for '25e (vs. 8.3% in '24). Estimate changes and outlook We lower '25e sales by 11% and '25e EBIT adj. by EUR 7m after the report. We have pushed the majority of the orders that were expected to be delivered in Q4'25e into '26e. In addition, we expect the uncertainty among customers to weigh on demand and orders into '26e, leading us to also lower our '26e-'27e sales by 6-4%. We cut '26e EBIT by EUR 3.3m and '27e EBIT by EUR 1.7m. Near-term focus: volume growth We continue to find the longer-term potential in shore power and industrial electrification appealing, supported by regulatory tailwinds and structural megatrends. That said, for Cavotec to reach its financial targets, we believe it is crucial for the company to demonstrate improved volume growth. The share is trading at 17x-11x EV/EBIT in '26e-'27e vs. peers at ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2025/11/cavotec---waiting-for-the-order-engine-to-turn/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2025/11/cavotec---waiting-for-the-order-engine-to-turn/ Mon, 10 Nov 2025 08:30:02 GMT CH0136071542 Analys Q3: flat org. sales growth, SEK 12m adj. EBITA improvement '25e-'27e adj. EBIT A up 16-7%, 38% CAGR '24-'27e 8-6x EBITA '25e-'27e, 26-16% lease-adj. FCF yields Paving Services continues to shine Infrea delivered a solid Q3, with flat sales y-o-y but strong adj. EBITA growth and margins. Organic sales growth was 0% (ABGSCe +7%, +8% Q2'25), due to Land & Construction (L&C) facing a tough market in the north while the other regions are developing in the right direction. Adj. EBITA improved by SEK 12m y-o-y, SEK 7m above our expectation due to strong delivery across all segments but mostly in Paving Services (PS). There was a one-off cost in L&C from the divestment of Mikaels Grävtjänst (SEK -1m). Water & Sewage grew both sales and earnings in the quarter, which is encouraging to see, but we do not extrapolate too much on only one quarter of delivery. PS delivered strong margins (11.5%), and even though some PS subsidiaries' performances were weak, this was offset by better performances in others. Cash flow was strong at ~140% of adj. EBITA, and yielded a gearing of 1.5x. Earnings growth to continue We raise '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 16-7% mainly on the continued good performance in PS and the underlying performance in L&C. We expect 8% organic sales growth in '25e, which together with gradually improving margins should support SEK 37m adj. EBITA growth (+SEK 17m '24) and a 38% CAGR '24-'27e. The lower gearing makes us more confident that Infrea could add growth through potential M&A. Margins to improve and FCF to stabilise We believe that Infrea is well-positioned to grow organically and improve its margins, given its exposure to underlying demand and to public customers (~55%), as well as support from M&A (13% sales CAGR in '21-'24). For '24-'27e, we expect Infrea to deliver sales and profitability growth and FCF above peers but with slightly lower margins. The share is trading at 8-6x adj. EBITA on '25e-'... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/11/infrea---execution-paves-the-way-forward/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/11/infrea---execution-paves-the-way-forward/ Mon, 10 Nov 2025 06:30:01 GMT SE0010600106 Analys We update our model after the announced divestment of Public Extraordinary dividend on the cards; growth rates to improve Lasernet trading at 2.3x EV/sales in '26e (excl. the anticipated DPS) We expect Lasernet to see annual double-digit growth Following the announced SEK 850m divestment of Formpipe's public business – expected to close in Q4'25 – we update our model and consequently cut our '26e-'27e sales and EBIT forecasts by 57-56% and 79-73%, respectively. What remains is Lasernet, a global document and customer communication management software suite with SEK 236m in r12m sales, of which ~60% are SaaS revenues. More than 90% of its revenues stem from customers outside Sweden, and its two main ERP platforms are Dynamics and Temenos. Between 2018-2024, the business unit reported a sales CAGR of 13% (of which SaaS 49% CAGR), and we expect annual sales growth of ~12% over the coming years. Although there is some near-term margin headwind from ~SEK 25m in overhead costs, the business model is highly scalable. We therefore model an 18% EBITDA margin in 2027e, up from 11% in 2025. More streamlined business should benefit resource allocation The divestment will give Formpipe an elevated cash position (SEK 726m '25e), and we believe an extraordinary dividend of SEK 11/share (~SEK 600m) could be on the cards in 2026. Furthermore, internal resource allocation will also likely improve, as will organic growth rates and, gradually, margins. Q3 due on 19 November Formpipe's Q3 is due on 19 November, where we expect sales of SEK 59m (+7% y-o-y for Lasernet) coupled with an adj. EBITDA of 7m (12% margin). Temenos has recently seen improvements in its ARR growth (it is targeting 13% annual ARR growth until 2028), which bodes well for Formpipe's ACV. Adjusting for the anticipated cash distribution, the valuation sits at 2.3x EV/sales in 2026. For comparison, Nordic software peers are at a median of 3.6x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2025/11/formpipe---public-divestment-changes-the-outlook/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/formpipe/Equity-research/2025/11/formpipe---public-divestment-changes-the-outlook/ Sun, 09 Nov 2025 21:00:11 GMT SE0001338039 Analys Orders grow 25%, sales 14%, adj. EBITA margin up 0.8pp Enedo still struggling, but profit from Q1; good momentum in Inission 34% adj. EPS CAGR in '25e-'27e supported by R12m b-t-b of 1.18x Clear improvements in Q3 Inission's Q3 demonstrated both q-o-q and y-o-y improvements. Order intake grew 25% and sales 14% (9% M&A), with a book-to-bill of 1.09x. The adj. EBITA margin improved 0.8pp y-o-y, reaching 6.5%, when adjusting for SEK 3.7m in personnel reduction costs in Enedo and SEK 2.3m in IT costs (in our fast comment we only adjusted for the former). Adj. EBITA was thereby 2% below our estimate. As anticipated, the Inission segment drove the improvement, growing 28% y-o-y and reaching an adj. EBITA margin of 8.2% (6.3%). Enedo meanwhile still faced tough comps after the demand reset in the segment, shrinking 29% y-o-y and delivering an adj. EBITA margin of -2.9% (3.8%). Operational trough behind us Enedo is still struggling, but cost reductions have now been implemented, and while there will be SEK ~3.5m in one-off costs for this in Q4'25 as well, management expects it will return to profitability in Q1'26. Meanwhile, the Inission segment has clearly already started improving. Management expects the trough is now behind us, and given the strong R12m book-to-bill of 1.18x, we agree. We raise '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 5-7%, as our confidence in margin improvement has increased. Significant EPS growth in '26e-'27e With strong organic growth in the Inission segment, and a clear path to profitability in Enedo given the implemented cost saving measures and a strong book-to-bill of 1.3x YTD in the segment, we forecast a significant earnings recovery in the coming two years, as adj. EPS looks set to go from SEK 3.0 in '25e to SEK 4.8/5.4 in '26e/'27e. The share is currently trading at 9x-8x '26e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 10x-9x and peers at 15x-12x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2025/11/inission---the-trough-is-behind-us/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2025/11/inission---the-trough-is-behind-us/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 16:30:09 GMT SE0016275069 Analys Q3: EBITDA of SEK 13m and a margin of 25% We cut EBITDA by 5-2% for '26e-'27e Currently trading at 37x EV/EBITDA Cost control and improving cross sales Clavister reported sales of SEK 50m, corresponding to 15% y-o-y growth (17% organic, -1% FX), in line with the pre-announced figures. Growth was mainly driven by previously won defence orders, where sales increased by ~100% y-o-y this quarter, representing ~25% of total sales. Sales growth in the civilian business was held back somewhat by timing effects, but ARR increased 9%, demonstrating a solid underlying trend and steady demand. EBITDA amounted to SEK 13m, corresponding to a 25% margin – the highest to date – supported by firm cost control and stronger cross sales efforts. Postponed projects to set in 2026 We cut sales by 2-1% for '26e-'27e, mainly reflecting delayed orders. We expect Q4 organic growth of ~10%, driven by postponed deliveries. We also cut EBITDA by 5-2% for the same period, with EBITDA now expected at SEK 69-94m, representing margins of ~25-30%. Q3 was seasonally softer and affected by distributors postponing purchasing decisions, which we expect to be realised during H1'26e. We see this as a timing issue rather than a structural slowdown, and expect momentum to normalise as deliveries ramp up. Improving fundamentals Clavister is now trading at 20-15x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e on our revised estimates. We believe the company is well-positioned to reach positive EBIT on the full year in 2026, supported by cost efficiencies and operating leverage. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2025/11/clavister---improving-margins-backed-by-cost-control/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2025/11/clavister---improving-margins-backed-by-cost-control/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 08:30:11 GMT SE0005308558 Analys Sales -5%, adj. EBITA +25% vs. ABGSCe, 0% org. growth '25e-'27e adj. EBITA estimates likely up 8-15% Share to focus on the margin improvment Q3 details Infrea delivered a solid report with sales flat y-o-y, but a high margin driven by paving services. Sales came in at SEK 531m (-5% vs. ABGSCe), 0% y-o-y of which +0% organic (ABGSCe +7%, +8% Q2'25), driven by paving services, partly offset by land & construction. Adj. EBITA gre w SEK 12m y-o-y to SEK 34m (+25%, SEK +7m, vs. ABGSCe), for a margin of 6.2% (ABGSCe 4.7%, 4.1% Q3'24) driven by good result in Asfaltsgruppen. Looking at y-o-y development, we see positive development in all segments. There is a SEK 0.9m one off cost in due to the divestment of Mikaels Grävjänst which was on our estimates. Estimate changes and outlook Looking ahead, management is not providing a formal outlook. However, they acknowledge that the market remains challenging. Nevertheless, we consider Infrea's strong margin and positive internal development to be signs that it is navigating the market well. We expect estimates for '25e-'27e adj. EBITA to mechanically come up by 10-15%. Final thoughts A solid report with ales in line with expectations and strong profitability. The share has outperformed the broader market into numbers (4% L1M vs. OMXSGI 0%) and is trading at 10-6x EBITA '2 5e-'27e. We believe that the market will recognise the positive margin development resulting from Infrea's hard internal work. Outcome vs. expectations Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/11/infrea---a-quarter-in-the-right-direction/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/11/infrea---a-quarter-in-the-right-direction/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 08:12:18 GMT SE0010600106 Analys Sales in line, EBIT adj. EUR +0.5m vs. ABGSCe Orders -18% vs. ABGSCe, weighed by timing and customer caution Strengthened profitability in Industry Q3 results Order intake came in at EUR 36m (-18% vs. ABGSCe 44m), flat y-o-y. Sales came in at EUR 36m (flat vs. ABGSCe 36m, -19% y-o-y). As expected, the company states that the lower volumes in the quarter are primarily due to the long lead times for Ports & Maritime orders, combined with continued customer caution. EBIT adj. was EUR -0.2m (vs. ABGSCe -0.7m). Industry showed signs of improving profitability (EBITDA EUR 3m vs ABGSCe 1m) as a result of the company's cost-saving and efficiency measures implemented in '24. EBIT has been adjusted for non-recurring costs of EUR 0.3m related to the relocation of Cavotec's registered office from Switzerland to Sweden. FCF lease adj. came in at EUR 2.0m (vs. ABGSCe -1.4m). Estimates and outlook On numbers alone, '25e-'27e sales change by 0%, and EBIT adj. changes by EUR +0.5m. The company highlights its strong order backlog, noting that most deliveries will begin next year. Management adds that the short-term softness in order intake mainly reflects timing effects in large electrification projects. Despite continued customer uncertainty, it remains confident in the strength of its underlying markets. Valuation The share has returned -15% L3M (vs. peer median +6% and OMXSALLS +5%), and is currently trading at 58x-16x '25e-'27e P/E on our pre-report estimates vs. the peer median of 22x-15x. The company is hosting a conference call at 10:00 CET. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2025/11/cavotec---short-term-softness-from-project-timing/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2025/11/cavotec---short-term-softness-from-project-timing/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 06:45:29 GMT CH0136071542 Analys Orders +8%, sales +1%, adj. EBITA -9% vs. ABGSCe Sees recovery amongst customers, Enedo profitable from Q1 14% organic growth and margin expansion in Inission segment Q3 results Orders were up 24% y-o-y and 8% above our estimate, continuing to show strength after three quarters of solid order growth. Sales grew 14% y-o-y and were 1% above our estimate. With a margin of 6.1%, 0.7pp below our estimate, EBITA adj. was 9% below our estimate. EBITA included non-recurring items with a negative margin impact of 0.7pp pertaining to cost saving measures in Enedo, which have now been concluded. The Inission segment performed well, growing 14% organically and increasing its adj. EBITA margin by 1.4pp y-o-y, while Enedo continued to struggle. There is a conference call at 09:00 CET: webcast Estimate changes The Q3 numbers in isolation imply EBITA adj. comes down 2%. Management states that it sees a clear recovery amongst customers in both segments, and expects Enedo will be back to profitability in Q1 now that the organisational changes have been concluded. Company valuation While adj. EBITA was 9% below our estimate, orders were good and sales in line, and we think that the more important takeaway from the report was the significant y-o-y improvement in the Inission segment and management's forecast of positive EBIT in Enedo from Q1. Over the past three months, the share has returned +12%, compared to the Nordic EMS peer median of -1% and the +5% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 14x-8.4x '25e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 13x-8.7x and peers at 18x-12x. Outcome vs. estimates Q3'25 Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2025/11/inission---inission-much-better-y-o-y-enedo-holds-back/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2025/11/inission---inission-much-better-y-o-y-enedo-holds-back/ Fri, 07 Nov 2025 06:45:10 GMT SE0016275069 Analys Uneventful Q3, but big financing news after the quarter Equity raise at SEK 19/share, 5pp less dilution than we expected No changes to our operational assumptions for the Viscaria mine Q3 uneventful, but big financing news after the quarter Viscaria reported Q3 EBIT of SEK -14m, with PP&E capex ramping up to SEK 279m, resulting in a cash position of SEK 317m per the end of Q3. The most noteworthy events, namely the announced debt project financing and the equity raise, occurred after the end of the quarter though, and we cover these below. Equity raise at SEK 19/sh, 5pp less dilution than we expected On 22 October the company communicated an equity raise of SEK 1.5bn, of which SEK 800m is an already-completed directed rights issue, and the remaining SEK 700m will be a share issue. The total number, SEK 1.5bn, is in line with our prior estimate, although we assumed a subscription price in line with the share price per our latest report, which was SEK 15.48 (on 14 August), for a share count of 205m, yet the directed rights issue was carried out at SEK 19/share. We now assume that the pending share issue will be carried out at the same price, which takes the total share count to 187m, for a dilution 42%, 5pp less than we previously estimated. In combination with the project debt financing package of up to SEK 3.9bn, which the company expects to complete by Q2'26, it should be well capitalised to re-open the Viscaria mine. No changes to our operational assumptions Our revisions above pertain to the financing of the Viscaria mine, but our operational assumptions remain unchanged. At full production run-rate (we estimate in '29e), we model annual revenue and EBITDA of SEK 2.6bn and 1.6bn, respectively. This is based on the following input assumptions: 1) a copper price of USD 9,500/t, 2) an iron price of USD 120/t, a USD/SEK rate of 10.34, and a copper TC of USD 80/t concentrate. On spot prices and FX rates, we calculate that the full run-rate ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/viscaria/Equity-research/2025/11/viscaria---filling-the-coffers/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/viscaria/Equity-research/2025/11/viscaria---filling-the-coffers/ Thu, 06 Nov 2025 13:45:10 GMT SE0021148160 Analys We trim EBIT by 4-3% on slightly lower margins Strong growth continues, with impressive margin resilience SEK 6-9 fair value reiterated; trades 5-10% below key peers Impressive growth momentum in the organic business Q3 was characterised by continued strong momentum for the organic Civil Engineering business, where the main market (Sweden) delivered 67% organic growth y-o-y (group organic growth was 32%). Management highlighted that the strong growth has resulted in some short-term margin pressure to prepare for the growth, but that it expect margins to revert once the growth rate moderates a bit. Still, margins in Sweden were 8% (10%), which we think shows that the company can execute well on a higher scale. Meanwhile, in Finland, where demand remains more muted, the margin improved from 7% to 8%. The group EBITA margin also declined from 10% last year to 8% (partly as a result of Sweden, but also from the consolidation of Dovre, although the group's total EBITA grew 29% y-o-y). As management guided for, the focus for Dovre is on improving margins rather than growing, and in Q3 the margin was 5% vs 3% in H1. Thus, we believe the company is delivering well on its objectives in all three core markets (growth in Sweden and margins in Finland and Norway/Dovre). Estimate changes Although we do not think that the overall outlook has changed for the company, accounting for the margin pressure in Sweden makes us trim our EBIT estimates by 4% in 2025 and 3% in 2026-2027. Priced below key peers, despite higher earnings growth After the negative reaction on the Q3 report, the share is -15% L3M vs OMXSGI +5%. This has resulted in a multiple contraction, and the share now trades at 11-8x EV/EBITA on '25e-'27e, which is 5-10% below construction and infra peers. For reference, we forecast 16% EBITA CAGR for NYAB '24-'27e vs consensus' 6-10% for said peers. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 6-9 per share after the report, as we view the outlook as re... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2025/11/nyab---solid-margin-resilience-amid-strong-growth/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2025/11/nyab---solid-margin-resilience-amid-strong-growth/ Thu, 06 Nov 2025 13:15:11 GMT SE0022242434 Analys We raise our long-term EBIT estimates on better growth Short-term margins sacrificed, but LT growth is more important 8-7x adj. P/E '26e-'27e, 9% div. yield, 40% of MCAP in net cash Encouraging signs of growth acceleration Although organic growth was in line with our expectations in Q3 (-7% y-o-y), it was accompanied by a significant increase in user acquisition cost (21% of sales vs ABGSCe 18%) which led to a weaker margin (6% vs ABGSCe 9%). Management says this is a result of better momentum for Sherlock, the biggest game in the portfolio, and that it expects to continue increasing the user acquisition cost to drive further growth acceleration. After years of more stagnant performance, Sherlock grew 8% y-o-y. Since this game accounts for close to 30% of group sales, we think the development is encouraging for G5's organic growth. As a result, we now predict that organic growth will improve to 0% in Q4e, and we raise our organic growth forecast for 2026 from 1% to 3%. We also think that the return to organic growth is now less contingent on new games. Implementing similar changes to Hidden City Management says that changes made to Sherlock in H1 are the result of the better performance and that it is working on implementing similar changes to Hidden City in Q4, which is its second-biggest game (~25% of sales). Because of this, management guided for a further increase in user acquisition cost in Q4 (up to 25% of sales). If this initiative is successful, we think there could be more upside to our organic growth forecast for 2026. Short-term margin pressure trumped by better growth We cut 2025e EBIT by 25% on the back of the user acquisition push, but only cut 2026e by 4% and raise 2027e by 1% as a result of the better growth, which at the end of the day is much more important than short-term margin pressure. Based on our updated estimates, the share trades at 8-7x adj. P/E and 4x EV/EBIT on 2026e-2027e with a dividend yield of 9%. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Equity-research/2025/11/g5-entertainment---finally-better-growth-momentum/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Equity-research/2025/11/g5-entertainment---finally-better-growth-momentum/ Thu, 06 Nov 2025 09:15:09 GMT SE0001824004 Analys Beat driven by strong paper performance Challenging markets Outlook remains muted Beat driven by strong paper performance Q3 group EBITDA came in at PLN 39m, which was above ABGSCe PLN 15m. Paper EBITDA came in at PLN 39m, which was above our PLN 25m. Paper EBIT was PLN 16m vs. ABGSCe PLN 5m. Group EBIT came in at PLN 4.5m vs. ABGSCe of PLN -19m. EPS came in at PLN 0.03 vs our estimate of PLN -0.16. Challenging markets Pulpwood prices are dropping 10-15% across Scandinavia (Baltics -30%) as high inventories and low demand pressure the market. This is the first decline after a 100% rise over the last three years. The pulp market has its short-term issues, but hardwood prices are below the marginal producers' cash cost (unsustainable), and Suzano has announced +12% hikes. Paper markets are helped by 17% supply cuts in '24-'25, but slow demand leaves utilisation at only 75-80% in '25e. We need 3.5mt in more cuts (16%) to reach the historical average of ~89%. Outlook remains muted Arctic Paper expects the difficult market conditions to continue through Q4'25, and highlights focus on cost control and financial resilience. We will await the company call before concluding on the coming quarter and the '26e estimates, but estimates are likely to be lifted by the beat today. pagebreak Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2025/11/arctic-paper---strong-paper/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2025/11/arctic-paper---strong-paper/ Thu, 06 Nov 2025 08:30:09 GMT PLARTPR00012 Analys Reports Q3 in line with pre-announced figures Seasonally weaker quarter, but 17% organic growth Est's to come down mid-single-digits on pre-announcement Q3'25 results Clavister reported figures in line with the preliminary information published in October. Reported sales came in at SEK 50m (-6% vs. ABGSCe of SEK 54m on our unrevised numbers), implying a growth of 15% y-o-y (17% org.). The defence segment was the main growth driver, supported by the civil business. ARR increased 9% to SEK 138m, showcasing a strong civil base. EBITDA came in at SEK 13m, representing a strong margin of 25%, marking Clavister's highest EBITDA margin to date. Reported EBIT came in at SEK 2m, with a margin of 4%. Order intake declined by 9% y-o-y, but is highly impacted to timing of orders. Outlook and estimate changes Q3 is typically seasonally weaker, with a more cautious investment climate, leading to decisions being postponed. Temporary delays in military hardware deliveries are now expected to shift into coming quarters. We believe these are timing-related rather than structural, and believe the company will achieve its ambition to reach 20% annual sales growth in '26e. We expect consensus to cut estimates by mid-single digit for '26e-'27e. Final thoughts Q3 came in line with pre-announced figures. It was a tad below our expectations, but we think the outlook maintains largely unchanged . We believe Clavister remains well positioned for continued growth and margin improvement into '26e. Management will host a presentation of the report 9:00 CET ( link ). Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2025/11/clavister---in-line-with-pre-announcement/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2025/11/clavister---in-line-with-pre-announcement/ Thu, 06 Nov 2025 08:15:09 GMT SE0005308558 Analys An NDA for Orviglance submitted to the FDA Patience for a partner deal Fair value range updated: SEK 2.9-6.6 (2.6-6.9) Preparing for a US approval and partner deal Ascelia delivered a quarter largely in line with expectations, with operating CF at SEK -16m (SEK -18m in Q2) and cash and cash equivalents at SEK 72m (SEK 60m in Q2) after a directed share issue of net ~SEK 28m, and Fenja Capital's conversion of all outstanding convertibles of SEK 7.5m. Positively, opex decreased by ~35% and ~15% q-o-q and y-o-y, respectively. Following this, Ascelia expects a cash runway into Q4'26e, excluding potential partner revenues. Importantly, the New Drug Application (NDA) submission to the FDA for the MRI contrast agent Orviglance was submitted in early September. Ascelia expects a standard ten months review time, leading to an anticipated approval in July '26. This comes after the pivotal Ph 3 SPARKLE trial successfully met its primary endpoint, demonstrating that the company’s MRI contrast agent Orviglance significantly (p < 0.001) improved the visualisation of metastatic liver lesions compared to un-enhanced MRI. Estimate revisions As before, we model that Orviglance will be commercialised through a partner - in line with sustained company guidance. We make the following estimate revisions to our model: i) A partner deal for Orviglance is delayed until '26e, which as before is accompanied by a USD 10m upfront payment; ii) A European launch is delayed from early '27e to late 27'e, as this is planned to be undertaken by a partner; and iii) Commercial milestones are cut to USD 40m (USD 50m). Valuation update The changes listed above yield a new fair value range of SEK 2.9-6.6 (2.6-6.9), implying an attractive risk/reward. The strengthened balance sheet adds to this, particularly as it ensures sufficient funding through the key regulatory milestones and improves the company's negotiating position. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ascelia-pharma/Equity-research/2025/11/ascelia-pharma---continuing-to-position-itself-for-striking-a-deal-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ascelia-pharma/Equity-research/2025/11/ascelia-pharma---continuing-to-position-itself-for-striking-a-deal-/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 17:45:08 GMT SE0010573113 Analys Q3 soft, lower volumes from two major customers We cut '26e-'27e sales and EBIT by 6% and SEK 6m, respectively Expect volume recovery to take longer than initially projected Q3 challenging, but cost savings ahead Q3 sales were lower than expected at SEK 22m (-22% y-o-y and -18% vs. ABGSCe). We had estimated higher sales in all segments, but the loss was mainly driven by NW&FT and GC&MP (NW&FT -15%, GC&MP -31% and FW -4% vs. ABGSCe). The main driver was lower volumes from two major customers due to shifts in delivery plans. On the lower sales as well as less favourable product mix in the quarter, EBIT also came in lower at SEK -6.4m vs. ABGSCe -4.9m. To help improve profitability, the company is implementing ~SEK 14m in cost savings. This will bring the total expected savings (including OrganoWood measures, effective from Q4'25) to ~SEK 18m once the savings have been implemented in full. These savings are expected to take effect gradually during H1'26. Estimate changes and outlook We lower our ‘26e-‘27e sales and EBIT by 6% and SEK 6m, respectively, as OrganoClick's volume recovery is taking longer than expected. Moreover, we have cut our gross margin estimates and lowered the ‘26e-‘27e opex base to reflect upcoming cost savings, partly offsetting the gross margin reduction. Both NW&FT and FW have faced weak markets, though FW has seen solid growth in Germany in recent quarters, offsetting softness in the Swedish construction market, a trend we expect to continue. For NW&FT, management indicates a turnaround is underway, and we expect a partial recovery in ‘26e driven by launches from existing and new customers. For GC&MP, we expect a return to growth in Q4 as customer inventories normalise. Valuation OrganoClick is currently trading at 2.2x-1.7x '25e-'27e EV/Sales vs. peers at 5.0x-1.3x. Although OrganoClick has secured financing in the near term, we continue to believe that it must de... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Equity-research/2025/11/organoclick---cost-savings-to-cushion-volume-headwinds/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Equity-research/2025/11/organoclick---cost-savings-to-cushion-volume-headwinds/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 16:45:08 GMT SE0006510335 Analys Operational leverage supports beat on adj. EBITDA Adj. EBITDA revised by +1-0% for '25e-'27e Unchanged outlook and fair value range of SEK 220-300 Continues to show strength Q3 proved marginally weaker than expected on sales, but operational leverage continued to improve, resulting in a 5%/3% beat on adj. EBITDA vs. ABGSCe/Infront consensus. Sales were EUR 592m (-2% vs. ABGSCe, -2% vs. cons.) with organic sales growth of +12% (ABGSCe +15%). Within HS, growth remained solid, supported by the sport/wellness and ambulatory clinics driving FFS growth in Poland. In India, the company is reducing its exposure to public funding, which weighs on growth near term but is expected to be beneficial longer term. In DS, efficiency programmes, volume growth, and price increases continued to support margin expansion, and management highlighted that the segment has navigated the German reimbursement reform well. Both segments contributed to an overall profitability improvement, with the group adj. EBITDA margin at 17.2% (ABGSCe 16.2%, cons. 16.4%). Estimate changes Overall, we leave our operational assumptions largely intact, revising adj. EBITDA by +1-0% for '25e-'27e. Management highlighted three near-term factors that will temporarily affect margins: 1) the launch of two new hospitals in India, brought forward into Q4 to capture strong momentum, 2) some early indications of a more cautious consumer, and 3) a strike in one Indian state during Q4. Despite these short-term effects, we see no changes to the company’s fundamental outlook, and the long-term growth and margin expansion trajectory remains intact. Fair value range unchanged at SEK 220-300 With an unchanged long-term outlook and minor estimate revisions, we leave our fair value range at SEK 220-300. The range is derived from trading multiples of two peer groups, one of healthcare providers in developing markets and one in developed markets, alongside a DCF. It corresponds to a '25e EV/EBITDA o... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2025/11/medicover---execution-remains-solid-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2025/11/medicover---execution-remains-solid-/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 16:30:47 GMT SE0009778848 Analys Pre-announced sales down 28% y-o-y due to several headwinds 5m EE milestone pushed to '27 due to market, installations strong Return to growth in '26 on pent-up demand and programme ramps Market headwinds and tough comps weigh on Q3 As indicated by the pre-announcement made in October, Q3 was marked by several headwinds, as serial production dropped 23% y-o-y to 2.7m EEs. Sales were SEK 23.5m, down 28% y-o-y, of which we estimate 8pp to be FX-driven. Roughly half of the 0.8m EE y-o-y decline was due to the known shutdown of a 0.4m production programme in September '24; more importantly, a 33% reduction in commercial vehicle production impacted volumes by 0.57m EEs, although this was partially offset by a 0.15m EE increase in passenger vehicle and off-road production. The EBIT margin was 23.8%, 1.1pp better than our estimate due to a more favourable mix benefitting the gross margin. 5m EE milestone delay already in estimates Due to market headwinds this year, which led MAN to extend production of its previous generation engine and FAW to delay the start of production of a new engine family, as well as the suspension of EPA 2027 negating an expected pre-buying effect of new vehicles, SinterCast now expects to reach the 5m EE milestone in '27 ('26). It also expects installation activity to remain strong, exceeding SEK 10m in '25 and SEK 8m in '26. Both of these were already reflected in our estimates. While the recent fire at automotive supplier Novelis is expected to impact Ford F-150 assembly in Q4, there have been no indications of reduced orders for its SinterCast-CGI based engine, and the company expects engine production to continue at pace while assembly catches up. Several tailwinds for a return to growth in '26 While current headwinds are substantial, comps ease significantly from Q4, and pent-up demand for fleet renewal as well as delayed programme starts and strong installation activity bode well for a return to growth in '26. We ther... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2025/11/sintercast---market-headwinds-in-25-set-for-growth-in-26/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2025/11/sintercast---market-headwinds-in-25-set-for-growth-in-26/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 16:30:08 GMT SE0000950982 Analys Q3 sales SEK 22m (-22% y-o-y), EBIT -6.4m (vs. ABGSCe -4.9m) Lower volumes from two major customers due to timing effects Cost savings program of ~SEK 14m announced Q3 results Sales came in lower than expected at SEK 22m (-18% vs. ABGSCe 27m), -22% y-o-y. Sales were primarily lower due to lower sales volumes and timing effects from two key customers. The gross margin was also lower at 18% (vs. ABGSCe 24%) due to the lower sales and product mix. This resulted in EBIT of SEK -6.4m (vs. ABGSCe -4.9m). During the quarter the company completed its rights issue of SEK 20m and also received a shareholder loan of SEK 10m, strengthening its near-term financial position. The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 5m and FCF lease adj. came in at SEK -13m (vs. ABGSCe -12m). Estimates and outlook On numbers alone, '25e-'27e sales change by -4%, and EBIT adj. changes by SEK -1.5m. To improve profitability, the company announced a cost-cutting program of ~SEK 14m in connection with its Q3 report. Together with the previously announced SEK 4m efficiency programme for OrganoWood, this will lead to a total cost reduction of ~SEK 18m for the Group once fully implemented. On outlook, the company states that it is seeing signs of increasing demand from both existing and new customers, and that its goal is to achieve better results in 2026 with the help of improving volumes and its reduced cost base. Valuation The share has returned -1% L3M (vs. peer median -21% and OMX Stockholm Allshare +7%), and is currently trading at 2.4x-1.9x '25e-'27e EV/Sales on our pre-report estimates vs. the peer median of 4.3x-1.4x. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Equity-research/2025/11/organoclick---challenging-q3-but-cost-cutting-underway/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/organoclick/Equity-research/2025/11/organoclick---challenging-q3-but-cost-cutting-underway/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 08:15:07 GMT SE0006510335 Analys Sales in line but adj. EBIT 31% below consensus... ...driven by higher user acquisition to drive accelerated growth in Q4 We expect estimates down on higher cost, but growth to accelerate Sherlock showing promising signs again Sales were SEK 229m (0% vs ABGSCe 229m and -2% vs cons 233m), -15% y-o-y, whereof -7% organic/USD-terms (vs ABGSCe -7%). EBIT adjusted for FX effects was 13m (-34% vs ABGSCe 20m and -31% vs cons 19m), -44% y-o-y. The reason for the margin contraction was higher user acquisition cost, which increased from 19% of sales last year to 21%. The main reason for this was higher investments in Sherlock which has shown better metrics since the company made some changes to the game in H1. As a result, Sherlock grew 8% y-o-y organically, and could accelerate further in Q4. Net profit was 13m (-33% vs ABGSCe 20m and -26% vs cons 18m). FCF was 19m (144% conversion). Net cash on the balance sheet remain solid at 247m. Outlook and preliminary estimate changes Higher user acquisition cost and the corresponding growth acceleration for Sherlock was the main event in Q3. Moreover, management guided for further increases in user acquisition spending in Q4 to drive further growth acceleration, both for Sherlock but also for other parts of the existing portfolio: mainly Hidden City, where management expect to roll our similar changes to the game as it did with Sherlock in H1. This will put further pressure on margins near-term, and we expect the EBIT margin to contract further in Q4. But it also has the potential to significantly improve the medium term growth in the portfolio. Meanwhile, G5 Store continues to grow and now account for 25% of group sales, which means that it should start to have a positive impact on group growth. On estimate changes, we expect that consensus will raise both cost and sales growth, but that the effect on 2026 EBIT still will be slightly negative (5-10%), at least until we know how the investments in Q4 translates ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Equity-research/2025/11/g5-entertainment---guides-for-accelerated-growth-investments/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Equity-research/2025/11/g5-entertainment---guides-for-accelerated-growth-investments/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 08:00:07 GMT SE0001824004 Analys Aims to grow DTC by ~30% CAGR next three years We lower our '26e-'27e EBITA by 3-2% on cost ramp-up We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 36-43 Ramp-up phase for future payoff For Embellence Group, Q3'25 looks to be the start of the transformation according to the strategy set out during the April 2024 CMD, which focuses on DTC and Hospitality sales. Organic growth accelerated to 5% y-o-y, driven primarily by Pappelina and External Manufacturing. Although gross margins were stable y-o-y as well, EBITA was 8% lower as a result of ongoing preparations to take the next step in its growth journey. Both Artscape's and Pappelina's online platforms have been upgraded, and Cole & Son is next in Q4'25. A new head of e-commerce has been hired and the sales organisation in Hospitality has been strengthened. Q3 comments suggest 30% CAGR in DTC N3Y Embellence communicated that it intends for half of its growth in the next three years to come from the DTC channel. In Q2, it said that 8% of sales were from DTC in LTM terms. Assuming that Embellence Group refers to the organic growth that is implied by its financial targets, i.e. organic sales around 6%, this means management expects a ~30% sales CAGR for the DTC channel, which would take the DTC share of sales to 15%. We raise our gross margin estimates to align with these efforts, which means the initial ramp-up of opex is partially offset in '26e-'27e. In total, we lower our '25-'27e EBITA by 8-2%. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 36-43 We leave our fair value range of SEK 36-43 unchanged in this note, as we make limited revisions to '26e-'27e EBITA. The share is trading at 9x-7.5x our '25e-'26e EBITA, which can be compared to its L3Y range of 6.8-7.9x NTM. Our fair value range corresponds to 6.8-8x '26e EBITA. At the current market price, we forecast a post-lease FCF yield of 10-11% for '26e-'27e. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2025/11/embellence-group---putting-a-number-on-dtc-growth/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2025/11/embellence-group---putting-a-number-on-dtc-growth/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 07:45:39 GMT SE0013888831 Analys EBIT 10% below ABGSC, 12% below consensus 32% organic growth (vs ABGSC 16%), 6% order backlog growth Estimates to come off ~3% on slightly lower margins Q3 results Sales were EUR 150m (0% vs ABGSCe 150m and 0% vs cons 150m), +60% y-o-y (whereof 32% organic, vs ABGSCe 16%). The acquisition of Dovre contributed a bit less than expected, but we think this was mainly due to seasonality. Meanwhile, organic growth in the organic business was stronger than we expected. EBITA was 12m (-10% vs ABGSCe 13m), and EBIT 11m (-10% vs ABGSCe 13m and -12% vs cons 13m), +27% y-o-y and a margin of 7.5% (vs ABGSCe 8.4% and cons 8.6%). Net profit 9m (-11% vs ABGSCe 10m and -15% vs cons 10m). FCF remained strong at 9m (77% EBITA conversion) for an LTM conversion of 123% of EBITA. Outlook and estimate changes On the market outlook, management said that activity in Sweden remains high and Finland more cautious although planned transmission grid investments should lead to higher activity in Finland coming years. In Norway, it said activity has been high but is expected to ease somewhat into 2026. The order backlog in the Civil Engineering segment was EUR 404m in Q3, corresponding to an increase of 6% y-o-y, which provide support for further growth in our view. In terms of estimate changes, we expect that consensus will cut 2026 EBIT slightly (~3%) on slightly lower margins in Q3. Final thoughts We think the report was solid, with high reported growth, solid order growth, margins, and cash flow. Based on our unrevised estimates, the share is trading at 10x EBITA on 2026, slightly below both Nordic construction and infra peers. Management will host a presentation of the report 10:00 CET, you can use this link to participate in the webcast. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, FactSet https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2025/11/nyab---32-organic-growth-but-slight-margin-miss/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2025/11/nyab---32-organic-growth-but-slight-margin-miss/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 07:45:24 GMT SE0022242434 Analys Sales SEK 23.5m as pre-announced, EBIT +5% vs. ABGSCe 5m EE milestone pushed to '27, expect '25 installations >10m, in line Novelis fire not expected to impact F-150 engine production in Q4 Q3 results Sales fell 28% y-o-y and were in line with the pre-announced figure. Annualised engine equivalents produced were 2.7m, falling 23% y-o-y, and were thereby also in line with the pre-announcement. Sampling cups sold decreased 27% y-o-y, and were 34% above our estimate. With a margin of 23.8%, 1.1pp above our estimate, EBIT adj. was 5% above our estimate. The somewhat stronger margin vs. our estimate was due to the positive mix effect on the gross margin from higher sampling cup sales. Estimate changes The Q3 numbers in isolation imply EBIT adj. comes up 1%. Following significant market headwinds in '25, the company pushes its 5m EE milestone from '26 to '27, which is already in our estimates. Installation revenues for '25 are expected to exceed SEK 10m, in line with our figure of SEK 10.8m. While the recent fire at automotive supplier Novelis is expected to impact Ford F-150 assembly in Q4, there have been no indications of reduced orders for its SinterCast-CGI based engine, and the company expects that engine production will continue at pace while assembly catches up to demand. Company valuation Over the past three months, the share has returned -4%, compared to the +5% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 30x-17x '25e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 23x-15x. Outcome vs. estimates Q3'25 Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2025/11/sintercast---sales-pre-announced-but-somewhat-better-mix/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2025/11/sintercast---sales-pre-announced-but-somewhat-better-mix/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 07:45:06 GMT SE0000950982 Analys +5%/+3% adj. EBITDA vs ABGSCe/Infront cons in Q3 Cons estimates likely up 1-2% on adj. EBITDA '25e Somewhat lower sales but profitability continues to improve Q3 results Medicover reported a solid Q3 with a miss on sales but a beat on adj. EBITDA (+5%/+3% vs. ABGSCe/Infront cons), with both segments showing improved profitability. Q3 sales came in at EUR 592m (-2% vs ABGSCe, -2% vs cons). Total organic sales growth in the quarter was +12% (ABGSCe +15%). Adj. EBITDA in Q3 was 102m (+5% vs. ABGSCe, +3% vs. cons), for a margin of 17.2% (ABGSCe 16.2%, cons 16.4%). Total NRI in Q3 was EUR -4m (ABGSCe -3m, cons -4m). The Q3 adj. EBITDA beat was driven by continued profitability improvements as utilisation rates in Healthcare Services combined with efficiency programmes, volume growth, and price increases in Diagnostic Services continues to support margin expansion. Cash flow from operating activities look strong in quarter, up 37% y-o-y. Outlook and estimate changes Management does not provide a specific outlook for 2025. Going forward, the company do however highlight that it expects a somewhat more moderate momentum in terms of margin expansion as it is seeing some early signs of a more cautious consumer and the launch of two new hospitals in India. Based on the Q3 deviation, FY'25 estimates are likely to be revised up by 1-2% on adj. EBITDA. Share view The stock has been weak going into the report (-7%, -5d) and given the earnings beat in today's report but slightly more cautious guidance on the coming quarters, we expect the share to trade up slightly, by a similar magnitude as today's expected estimate revisions. Conference call at 09.30 CET today. Link for audiocast: https://medicover.events.inderes.com/q3-report-2025/register Q3 deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data, Infront consensus https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2025/11/medicover---margins-expand-despite-slower-growth-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/medicover/Equity-research/2025/11/medicover---margins-expand-despite-slower-growth-/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 07:15:06 GMT SE0009778848 Analys EBIT adj. SEK 7.2m (9.4m), vs. ABGSCe of SEK 14m We lower '26e-'27e EBIT adj. by 5-6% Positive sales and margin trend in FMWT continues Q3 results Q3 sales were SEK 206m, +2% y-o-y, while EBIT adj. was SEK 7.2m (9.7m), -50% below our expectations of SEK 14m. EBIT included a one-off gain (SEK +6m) from a repayment related to fraud in Q3'24. Despite results coming in below our estimates, FMWT continued to demonstrate solid y-o-y growth, which we view positively. We expect this positive momentum to carry through in the coming quarters. Scandpower sales were impacted by seasonal variations, leading to weaker results in Q3, but we see no change in underlying demand, and we expect licence sales to trickle into Q4. Decommissioning continues to face tougher competition, impacting margins, which were 2.4pp lower y-o-y. We expect the margin pressure to remain in the near-term, and we estimate an EBIT margin of 4.2% for FY'25e (vs. 5.8% in '24). Estimate changes and outlook We lower our '26e-'27e sales and EBIT adj. by 3% and 6%, respectively, on the back of the report. The star of the show continues to be FMWT, while Decommissioning is facing tougher conditions. To strengthen the business area, the company announced that Karl Thedeen (CEO), will temporarily assume responsibility of the segment as the company has an ongoing strategic and organisational review in the segment. Long-term demand intact Although lead times are long, we expect Studsvik to benefit from the new wave of global investments in the nuclear field for many years to come. Studsvik, Blykalla, and evroc completed discussions this quarter regarding a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). They will jointly explore the possibility of developing Sweden's first nuclear-powered data centre at Studsvik’s licenced site in Nyköping. The share has returned +43% L3M (vs. peers at +7%, OMXSALLS +7%) and is currently trading at 34x-23x '25e-'27e EV/EBIT. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/studsvik/Equity-research/2025/11/studsvik---fmwt-leads-the-way-in-a-mixed-quarter/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/studsvik/Equity-research/2025/11/studsvik---fmwt-leads-the-way-in-a-mixed-quarter/ Tue, 04 Nov 2025 19:15:06 GMT SE0000653230 Analys Major beat on EBIT, but lower sales Estimates up on adj. EBIT for '25e-'26e (lower loss), yet down for '27e Fair value range down to SEK 10-17 (11-18) Continued operational leverage despite sales miss OssDsign delivered a mixed set of numbers in Q3, with sales coming in slightly below expectations but operational leverage continuing to improve. Sales were SEK 44.0m (-5% vs. ABGSCe of SEK 46.2m, no consensus), corresponding to organic growth of 35% (ABGSCe 38%). The quarter was negatively affected by a seasonally weaker start but ended on a strong note, with September marking a record month. Adj. EBIT came in at SEK -5.3m (+37% vs. ABGSCe of SEK -8.5m), driven by lower opex. The gross margin was 95.6% (ABGSCe 95.5%) and sales and commission costs were better than forecast at 48.5% of sales (vs ABGSCe of 49.0%), highlighting the company’s continued ability to scale efficiently. Operating cash flow was SEK -9.4m in Q3’25 (vs. SEK -8.7m in Q3’24), impacted by an intentional inventory build-up to support the ongoing sales ramp-up. Estimate changes On the back of Q3’25, we turn slightly more cautious on the sales momentum and lower our sales estimates by 2% for '25e-'27e. With operational leverage improving, we reduce the expected loss on adj. EBIT by SEK 3.6m and SEK 0.5m for '25e and '26e, respectively. However, for ’27e, the softer sales outlook leads us to revise up the expected loss by SEK 6m. As the absolute numbers are small, the revisions appear somewhat dramatic, and we see no material change to the overall case. Fair value range down to SEK 10-17 (11-18) While we expect a somewhat slower sales momentum, we still pencil in a 31% sales CAGR for '24-'27e, driven by a continued sales ramp-up of Catalyst in the US. Nonetheless, based on our revisions, we lower our fair value range to SEK 10-17 (11-18) on the Q3 report. We arrive at our fair value range using a DCF model with a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2025/11/ossdsign---case-intact-despite-slightly-slower-momentum/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2025/11/ossdsign---case-intact-despite-slightly-slower-momentum/ Tue, 04 Nov 2025 17:30:07 GMT SE0012570448 Analys Q3e Paper EBIT of ~PLN 5m Challenging markets Fair value range of SEK 17-60 Q3e Paper EBIT of ~PLN 5m We expect Q3e Paper EBIT of ~PLN 5m, up from PLN -16m in Q2'25. We are of the understanding that Q2 was affected by malfunctions and unplanned shutdowns. In our q-o-q setup, we add back the negative effects of these events, but this is partly offset by lower prices and continued soft demand. Hence, we arrive at ~PLN 5m; this is down from ~PLN 12m in Q1'25, which can be viewed as a more "normal" quarter given the soft market balance. Note that Rottneros reported pulp EBIT of SEK -58m (~PLN -22m) last week, which was in line with our expectations. Our '25e estimates are up due to the reversal of the negative Q2 paper effects, meaning our Paper EBIT estimates are lifted as well. We are still somewhat cautious on our Rottneros estimates, but looking into '26, lower pulpwood costs should help. However, given Rottneros' position on the cost curve (far right) and the uncertainty regarding prices and demand, we wait to factor the full effect of lower input costs into our estimates. Challenging markets Pulpwood prices are dropping 10-15% across Scandinavia (Baltics -30%) as high inventories and low demand pressure the market. This is the first decline after a 100% rise over the last three years. The pulp market has its short-term issues, but hardwood prices are below the marginal producers' cash cost (unsustainable), and Suzano has announced +12% hikes. Paper markets are helped by 17% supply cuts in '24-'25, but slow demand leaves utilisation at only 75-80% in '25e. We need 3.5mt in more cuts (16%) to reach the historical average of ~89%. Fair value range of SEK 17-60 The company is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.5x, which is ~35% below its historical average. We have applied three valuation methodologies and arrive at a fair value range of SEK 17-60. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2025/11/arctic-paper---still-challenging/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2025/11/arctic-paper---still-challenging/ Tue, 04 Nov 2025 11:15:06 GMT PLARTPR00012 Analys Sales -9% & EBIT adj. SEK 7m below vs. ABGSCe EBIT impacted by SEK +6 m one-off gain from Q3’24 fraud Underlying customer demand intact, despite a softer quarter Q3 results Studsvik reported softer than expected Q3 results. Sales grew +2% y-o-y but were 9% below our estimate. EBIT adj. was SEK 7.2m (-50% vs. ABGSCe), for a margin of 3.5% (4.8%), 2.9pp below our estimate. EBIT included a one-off gain of SEK +6m relating to the recovery of the fraud that occurred in Q3’24 within Scandpower, compared with a -SEK 10.1 m adjustment in Q3’24 related to the original fraud loss. In FMWT, results came in below expectations but showed a clear y-o-y improvement, indicating a positive trend in the segment. Scandpower was affected by seasonal variations, which are typically difficult to forecast, though the company remains confident in the underlying demand. Estimate changes and outlook The Q3 numbers in isolation imply EBIT adj. comes down 9%. Despite a softer quarter, our long-term view of the company remains unchanged. The company remains particularly optimistic about its FMWT segment, highlighting momentum in production and a new organisation in place. There is also increasing interest from companies developing SMRs seeking Studsvik's expertise in materials and fuel testing. Valuation Over the past three months, the share has returned +55%, compared to the +7% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 52x-33x '25e-'27e P/E. There is a conference call at 09:30 CET: https://studsvik.events.inderes.com/q3-report-2025/register Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company Data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/studsvik/Equity-research/2025/11/studsvik---q3-softer-than-expected/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/studsvik/Equity-research/2025/11/studsvik---q3-softer-than-expected/ Tue, 04 Nov 2025 08:00:05 GMT SE0000653230 Analys Net sales SEK 174m, -3% vs ABGSCe EBITA SEK 24m, -18% vs ABGSCe Cole & Son platform to be upgraded in Q4'25 Q3 in brief: below our expectations Embellence Group's Q3 report is slightly below expectations overall. Net sales of SEK 174m was -3% vs ABGSCe, and corresponded to organic growth of 5%. Growth was driven by the Artscape and external manufacturing segments, which grew 4% and 17% respectively. Gross margins were 60.6%, -20bp y-o-y, which coupled with a higher opex ratio resulted in a 13.6% EBITA margin, -150bp y-o-y. EBITA of SEK 24m was -18% vs ABGSCe, and corresponded to y-o-y growth of -8%. The opex ramp-up of SEK 3m is explained by investments into the organisation to drive future growth, e.g. strengthening the organisation within hospitality. Outlook: more e-commerce upgrades due in Q4'25 In Q1, Embellence Group stated that it saw markets stabilising. In the Q2 report, it said it had confidence for the future, and announced a couple of initiatives to further its e-commerce offering, including recruiting a new head of e-commerce and plans to rebuild Cole & Son's e-commerce platfrom by Q4'25. In Q3, it says that it sees positive signals related to the updated e-commerce platforms that have already been launched (Pappelina and Artscape), and that is expects Cole & Son's platform to be upgraded in Q4'25. Q3 moves our '25e EBITA by -5% Using yesterday's closing price and unrevised estimates, Embellence Group is trading at 8.6x-7.6x our '25e-'26e EV/EBITA vs a historical trading range of 5-9x NTM. L3M, the share has returned 10%. The Q3 report alone moves our '25e EBITA by -5%. Embellence Group hosts a conference call today at 10:00 CEST, find call-in details here . Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2025/11/embellence-group---winds-of-change-are-blowing/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2025/11/embellence-group---winds-of-change-are-blowing/ Tue, 04 Nov 2025 07:30:04 GMT SE0013888831 Analys 35% organic sales growth in Q3 (ABGSCe +38%) Adj. EBIT +37 % vs ABGSCe No change in outlook Q3 results OssDs ign reported a mixed set of numbers in Q3 with lower sales but strong cost control and operational leverage. Q3 sales came in at SEK 44.2m (-4% vs ABGSCe SEK 46.2m, no consensus) and adj. EBIT of SEK 5.3m, +37% vs ABGSCe of -8.5m. The beat on adj. EBIT is attributable to lower opex as sales came in below and gross was marginally lower at 95.2% in the quarter (vs ABGSCe 95.5%). We are pleased to see that the 'sales and commission and fees' as percentage of sales came in better (ie lower) than expected at 48.5% (ABGSCe 49.0%). Sales in Q3 was negatively impacted by the late order (SEK 1.5m) that came in very late in Q2, which we to some extent tried to incorporate into our estimates. Still, sales came in 4% below. Organic sales growth in Q3 amounted to 35% (ABGSCe 38%) Webcast at 11.00 CET today, link: https://www.finwire.tv/webcast/ossdsign/q3-2025/ Estimates Company is not providing any outlook for 2025 or changing its mid-term financial targets of reaching sales of SEK >400m by 2028 and to become cash flow and EBIT positive in the second half of its 'Strategy Period' (2025-2028). Based on the deviation on EBIT in Q3, we expect FY'25e EBIT to be revised up (lower loss) by mid- to high single digit. Share price view The stock has been strong YTD (+30%) but a bit soft into the report (-3.5%, -5d). Based on the deviation and recent share price movements, we expect to see a positive share price reaction in similar magn itude as the estimated earnings revisions. Q3 deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2025/11/ossdsign---strong-cost-control-in-q3/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2025/11/ossdsign---strong-cost-control-in-q3/ Tue, 04 Nov 2025 06:30:04 GMT SE0012570448 Analys Strong Q3 across the board '25e-'27e EBIT down 12-4% on slightly lower Ovzon-3 sales Good potential for more orders; 35x-14x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT Q3 was a strong quarter There were few things to dislike in Ovzon's Q3 report, including strong financials in terms of sales (+113% y-o-y), margins (27% EBIT margin), and FCF (SEK 194m), chiefly driven by the recent FMV order. This contract began ramping up in Q2 and reached a normalised level by the end of Q3, so a slight sequential tailwind is expected in Q4 as well. However, the initial margins of the contracts have benefited from a large proportion of Ovzon-3-related capacity, which has been progressively transitioned to leased capacity in line with the contract details. Therefore, we expect Q4 margins to decline sequentially, albeit remaining high. Furthermore, this means that Ovzon now has unsold capacity; although the timing of such orders is unclear, we expect more orders in the seasonally busy Q4. We are increasingly expecting an order from another European state, while the situation in the US is less clear. Net financials in Q4 will also benefit from refinancing, which will lower interest rates from ~15% to ~4.5%. Estimate changes While we increase our terminal sales assumptions, we have pushed back the timing of Ovzon-3-related orders, as there have been no recent announcements. This negative product mix leads us to lower '25e-'27e EBIT by 12-4%. Positive momentum continues Ovzon remains a unique company in the Nordics within the structurally expanding SATCOM market. Our conviction in its market position has been reinforced following the SEK 1bn FMV-related order, and there is good potential for additional proprietary satellite launches, which we have not included in our forecasts. We forecast 2026 EBIT of SEK 269m (up from SEK 113m in 2025), coupled with FCF of SEK 344m. This equates to 14x '26e EV/EBIT and a 9% FCF yield. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2025/11/ovzon---strong-q3-additional-orders-likely/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2025/11/ovzon---strong-q3-additional-orders-likely/ Mon, 03 Nov 2025 09:30:03 GMT SE0010948711 Analys https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Media/2025/11/Skolon-Q3-Earnings-Call-with-CEO-Oliver-Lundgren/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Media/2025/11/Skolon-Q3-Earnings-Call-with-CEO-Oliver-Lundgren/ Mon, 03 Nov 2025 09:00:00 GMT SE0017615784 TxCsDYD19K4 Media A Nordic distributor of PPE, tools etc. returning to org. growth in Q4e Set for margin growth after structural transformation in weak market Expect a '25e-'27e adj. EPS CAGR of 22%, trading at P/E 12-10x A Nordic distributor of PPE, tools & consumables Alligo is an industrial distributor with some proprietary products (<20%), selling personal protective equipment, tools etc. It has two main concept brands (80%), Swedol (Sweden) and Tools (Norway & Finland), along with several less integrated niche companies (20%). Swedol and Tools sell through both physical stores (58%), and directly to larger customers (42%). The customer base is broad, spanning many industries such as manufacturing (31%) and construction (23%). Customers range from large companies and the public sector, to SMEs and individuals. Emerging from a period of structural transformation Alligo was formed in 2021 following the acquisition of Swedol and the subsequent spin-off of Momentum Group. Since then, a lot has been done to integrate Swedol and Tools, including: 1) a Nordic standardised assortment, 2) centralising logistics operations, 3) concentrating the supplier base, and 4) a common organisation with the same ERP and IT. Key margin drivers are: 1) a larger share of SME customers and in-store sales, and 2) a larger share of sales from own brands. These have always been higher in Swedol, and since the acquisition, efforts have been underway to increase them in Tools. Set up for growth and significant margin expansion The integration process has coincided with the market downturn in '23-'25, which has hit SMEs, Alligo's most profitable customers, hardest, hampering Alligo's growth and margins. The gross margin is intact, however, which, in combination with the major structural transformation, means Alligo is well set up to see significant margin expansion once it returns to organic growth, which we think will happen in Q4'25. We forecast a '25e-'27e adj. EPS C... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2025/11/alligo---all-go-for-earnings-to-grow/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2025/11/alligo---all-go-for-earnings-to-grow/ Mon, 03 Nov 2025 08:15:02 GMT SE0009922305 Analys EBIT to increase by 58% y-o-y to SEK 30m in Q3'25e Minor negative tweaks to our 2025e EBIT 2025e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-6x, with easy comps We forecast EBIT of SEK 30m for Q3'25e, up 58% y-o-y For the Q3’25 report (due 7 November), we expect EBIT of SEK 30m (19m) and that transaction activity has improved y-o-y, a sign of positive momentum slowly building. Looking at the operational segments, we estimate that AUM within Investment Management (IM) will be up 1% q-o-q to SEK 158.5bn, despite some minor FX headwinds in the quarter. We expect the segment to deliver an operating profit of SEK 36m (33m), roughly in line with the operating profit levels seen in the last couple of quarters. The third quarter is often seasonally weaker within Corporate Finance, which is why we expect a sequential decline q-o-q in operating profit, to SEK -6m, the same level as a year ago. We expect only a minor operating profit contribution from Principal Investments of SEK 4m in Q3'25, also in line with Q3'24. Minor tweaks to our 2025 EBIT estimates We only make minor tweaks to our earnings forecasts, reducing our EBIT assumptions for Principal Investments. In sum, our 2025e EBIT is down 2%. 2025e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-6x with a 6-8% dividend yield In our view, the company has many attractive fundamentals, including an impressive track record within Investment Management and attractive own-property investments. The balance sheet remains strong, providing Catella with the necessary resources should the right opportunities arise. The comps are easy, and we believe the transaction activity outlook is promising. This means that we expect strong yearly earnings expansion from here. In addition, when applying our latest earnings revisions, Catella is trading at an EV/EBIT of 4-6x for 2025e-27e and offers an appealing dividend yield of 6-8% p.a. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2025/10/catella---momentum-on-the-rise/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2025/10/catella---momentum-on-the-rise/ Fri, 31 Oct 2025 12:45:06 GMT SE0000188518 Analys Sales +113% y-o-y on recent orders; 0%/-6% vs. ABG/cons EBIT was +13% vs. ABG and +7% vs. cons, driven by higher GMs Strong Q3 FCF - expect cons to make small revisions Q3 results Sales SEK 202m (0% vs ABGSCe 203m and -6% vs cons 216m), adj. EBIT 54m (13% vs ABG 48m and 7% vs cons 51m). As expected, NWC normalised following the depressed levels in Q2 (driven by payments from the FMV contract), resulting in FCF of SEK 194m (vs. SEK -41m in Q3'24). This resulted in both sales, margins and FCF reached record-high levels. Net debt totaled SEK 326m by end-of-Q3. The order book was robust at SEK 1.0bn by end-of-Q3 whereas the FMV order extends to 2027. Q3 thoughts Following the SEK 1bn order from the Swedish FMV, Ovzon achieved a significant breakthrough in Q2, and this momentum continued in Q3. Sales improved markedly (+113% y-o-y) and while the EBIT margin was 27% (vs. -24% in Q3'24). On revenue streams, SATCOM and terminal sales met our expectations, comprising 80% and 20% of net sales, respectively. Nonetheless, margins were better than expected, driven by higher gross margins while opex was above our forecast. On the outlook, Ovzon highlights a growing global demand. There was no specific news regarding the situation in the US beyond the statement that 'The US market remains important and a special focus area for us' - we continue to expect it to rebound in 2026, albeit visibility remains blurred. Meanwhile, activity in Europe remains high. Estimate changes At a first glance, we expect consensus to make small revisions to '25e-'26e EBIT. The stock is trading at 34x-14x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT on our unrevised estimates. There is a conference call 10.00 CET (link) . Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, FactSet https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2025/10/ovzon---record-high-sales-margins-and-fcf/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2025/10/ovzon---record-high-sales-margins-and-fcf/ Fri, 31 Oct 2025 07:45:06 GMT SE0010948711 Analys Increasing activity in the letting market Net financials miss in Q3 drives negative revisions 2026e P/CEPS of 14x vs coverage average of 16x Solid operational performance, miss on net financials in Q3 Fastpartner delivered Q3 results with rental income and net operating income in line with our expectations. The NOI margin declined by 0.7pp y-o-y to 72.5% primarily driven by higher property tax. Central administration costs were slightly lower than we estimated, while net financials were higher in the quarter, resulting in rec. PTP 4.9% below our forecast. The occupancy rate declined by 0.1pp q-o-q to 91.2%, and the forward-looking guidance for income from property management was revised down by 2.3% to SEK 860m on a rolling 12-month basis. We lower 2026e-2027e CEPS by 3-4% driven by higher assumed funding costs. Good momentum in new lettings While the vacancy rate increased somewhat in the quarter, management was more optimistic on the outlook, stating that an oncoming cyclical improvement has already been somewhat reflected in demand for premises, referencing strong activity in new lettings. Based on announced lettings, the higher activity seems to have continued into Q4. Management commented that while larger tenants remain cautious in letting discussions, they are no longer looking to downsize, rather the opposite. Letting progression for the Nasdaq premises in Frihamnen was not mentioned specifically, but management remain confident they will find a good solution for the premises. We have the impression that the property will need adjustments for new tenants, a process that will take ~12-15 months, suggesting 5-6% upside to our rental income forecast for 2027e if fully let. 2026e P/CEPS of 14x, coverage average of 16x The share is trading at 2026e P/CEPS of 14x, below the average in our coverage of 16x and the average for office peers in our coverage at 15x. On 2025e P/EPRA NRV, the share is trading at 0.58x compared to office peers at 0.... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/fastpartner/Equity-research/2025/10/fastpartner---early-signs-of-improving-demand/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/fastpartner/Equity-research/2025/10/fastpartner---early-signs-of-improving-demand/ Fri, 31 Oct 2025 05:45:41 GMT SE0013512506 Analys Q3 report Friday, 7 April at 08:30 CET '25e-'27e adj. EBITA up 5-2% 10-6x EBITA in '25e-'27e, 23-14% FCF yields Investments will come We expect Infrea to deliver a Q3 report with both organic growth and earnings improvements. During the quarter, the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) submitted its proposal for the 2026–2037 national infrastructure plan to the government. Trafikverket estimates that the plan will cost SEK 1,171bn to implement, consisting of SEK 607bn in new investments and SEK 564bn in maintenance. While the total size of the package was already known, the split between new investments and maintenance was not. Furthermore, at a recent lunch meeting with Sveriges Kommuner och Regioner (SKR), a representative told us that the municipalities think water and sewage are the no. 1 areas in terms of investment need. In our view, this points to the increased spending on infrastructure that Infrea will capitalise on ahead. Estimate changes We raise '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 5-2%, as we are more confident in support from ambitious financial targets (above 6% EBITA margin) and the infrastructure budget is supporting demand for Infrea's business. We still think the market is regionally tough in some areas, but we believe Infrea can navigate the landscape and defend its margins. We now forecast adj. EBITA in '25e of SEK 58m (SEK 30m in '24), accelerating to SEK 60m and SEK 74m in 2026e and 2027e, respectively, as margins improve from 1.5% in '24 to 3.1% in '27e. Margins to improve and FCF to stabilise We believe Infrea is well-positioned to grow organically and improve margins given its exposure to underlying demand and exposure to public customers (~55%), alongside support from M&A (24% sales CAGR in '20-'23). For '24-'27e, we expect Infrea to deliver growth, margins, and FCF in line with peers. The share is currently trading at 10-6x EV/EBITA with a 23-14% FCF yield. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/10/infrea---infrastructure-tailwinds-to-lift-margins/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2025/10/infrea---infrastructure-tailwinds-to-lift-margins/ Fri, 31 Oct 2025 05:45:06 GMT SE0010600106 Analys Adj. EBITA EUR 9.1m, above ABGSCe 7.0m and up y-o-y We raise our adj. EBITA estimates by EUR 3-1m for '25e-'27e Nine-quarter streak of y-o-y adj. EBITA improvement Profitability improvements showing Eltel reported a strong set of numbers, with adj. EBITA increasing to EUR 9.1m (8.2m), beating our estimate of EUR 7.0m, for a margin of 4.4% (3.9%), despite sales being down 2% organically. This marks the highest margin in a single quarter for Eltel since 2015, and while we stress that seasonal patterns will of course persist, likely leading to a weaker Q4 and Q1 ahead, this still clearly highlights that structural profitability improvements have been made. Cash flow was hampered by significant working capital build-up in the quarter, causing the net debt position (ex. leases) to increase to EUR 118m (from 91m in Q2). However, we expect cash flow will be significantly better in Q4. It is also worth mentioning that the company repurchasing its high-cost hybrid bond has also helped to improve the cash flow outlook. EBITA raised by EUR 3-1m, driven by Finland As we mention above, we argue that there are structural factors underpinning the margin expansion, so we raise our adj. EBITA estimates for '25e-'27e by EUR 3-1m. The main driver of this is Finland, which reported an impressive EBITA margin of 8.7% in the quarter. 11-8x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, 7-9% lease adj. FCF yields We now model an adj. EBITA margin of 2.3-3.9% for '25e-'27e, still not quite at the company's target of 5%. On our '26e-'27e estimates, the share is trading at 11-8x EV/EBITA and offering lease adj. FCF yields of 7-9%. Most importantly, Eltel now has a nine-quarter streak of y-o-y adj. EBITA growth, and with favourable mix shifts ahead, as the legacy power and communication end-markets give way to new markets such as solar PVs and data centres, we expect this trend to continue. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eltel/Equity-research/2025/10/eltel---keeps-the-earnings-growth-streak-alive/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eltel/Equity-research/2025/10/eltel---keeps-the-earnings-growth-streak-alive/ Thu, 30 Oct 2025 13:45:06 GMT SE0006509949 Analys Continued gross margin expansion, but the market remains tough We take a more cautious view on the recovery We cut '25e-'27e adj. EBIT by 10-15%; 12x-10x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT Good gross margins, but tough market The overall market remains challenging, with headwinds from both subdued volumes and price pressure due to an oversupply of consultants. Although Ework's sales mix, with a high proportion of senior consultants, coupled with an increased focus on profitability levels in new contracts, is helping gross margins, this is hurting sales volumes. These headwinds are further exacerbated by continued cost-saving measures in the important automotive end-market (including layoffs at Volvo Cars), resulting in a 7% y-o-y decline in sales. While Ework is managing things well within its control, particularly in terms of gross margins, adj. EBIT fell 13% y-o-y due to lower sales volumes. This was -8% vs. versus ABGSCe on a 1% sales miss, while orders were 8% below. We lower sales in '26e-'27e The Volvo Cars-related layoffs were announced in H1'26, but are only now starting to take their toll. Furthermore, leading demand indicators are lagging behind our expectations. Therefore, we are taking a more cautious view of the sales recovery and lowering our sales estimates for 2025-2027 by 2-5%. Due to operational leverage, we cut the corresponding adj. EBIT estimates by 10-15%. While the public sector has started to stabilise, we still note continued weakness in demand in the private sector (albeit telecom is improving). Consequently, we anticipate negative growth rates in H1'26, but expect improvements in H2'26. However, estimate visibility is currently low. 12x-10x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT adj. The share is trading at 12x-10x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT adj. (vs. peers at 11x-15x), which is in line with its 10Y avg. of ~12x. We continue to expect earnings to pick up well once demand returns, but we anticipate subdued earnings growth in the near term due to the challenging m... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2025/10/ework-group---no-imminent-sales-recovery/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2025/10/ework-group---no-imminent-sales-recovery/ Thu, 30 Oct 2025 13:30:07 GMT SE0002402701 Analys Organic momentum improved in all segments A recovery in Swedish housing could drive 18% EBITA growth We reiterate our SEK 50-66 fair value range Q3: acceleration and ATH GM All segments accelerated in Q3: the group grew 7% organically vs. 5% in Q2. The primary driver of this acceleration was the Svedbergs segment, which went from flat org. growth in Q2 to 7% in Q3. We believe the change to be market-driven to a large extent. BHG commented on improved demand for bathroom products as well in Q3, but it appears the project market is still somewhat sluggish, making up only 10% of the segment vs 30-40% pre-pandemic. As such, an improvement in the primary housing market would be incremental from here. Gross margins improved to 48.5%, an all-time high, supported by price adjustments and lower shipping costs for Roper Rhodes. In Q3'25, Svedbergs also passed its financial target of a 15% margin in LTM terms: EBITA of SEK 80m corresponded to 12% growth y-o-y. Margins could expand further in '26e We find reason to believe the Svedbergs segment's margin story is not over. Since 2019, the Svedbergs brand has reported an incremental margin around 30%. There is significant upside in the event of a recovery in the housing market, to the tune of SEK ~60m in EBITA (assuming Svedbergs reaches a historical 30% share of sales in the project market), which equals 18% of '25e EBITA, even assuming efficiency improvements in the factory do not lead to improved profitability for the business toward secondary markets. We also assume margin savings from upgraded production facilities in Thebalux and expect gross margin support from lower freight rates in Roper Rhodes, a tailwind until Q2'26 at least. We reiterate our SEK 50-66 fair value range We raise our '25e-'27e EBITA by 1%, seeing better top-line momentum than expected and stronger gross margins. We thus maintain our SEK 50-66 fair value range, corresponding to 8x-11x '26e EV/EBITA. Svedbergs Group's leverage looks... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2025/10/svedbergs-group---15-margin-target-reached/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2025/10/svedbergs-group---15-margin-target-reached/ Wed, 29 Oct 2025 16:45:05 GMT SE0000407991 Analys 38% y-o-y organic sales growth in Q3'25e EBIT forecasts cut by 4.0-6.1% for '25e-'27e Q3'25 results due 4 November Q3'25 expectations We expect OssDsign to report Q3 sales of SEK 46.2m and EBIT of SEK -8.5m, implying continued solid sales momentum for Catalyst in the US with 38% organic sales growth. The sales level in Q3 is expected to have been negatively impacted to some degree by the unusually high sales level in Q2, as one customer placed a relatively large order of approximately SEK 1.5m on one of the last days of the quarter, making the sequential comparison into Q3 look flattish. We expect the underlying growth to have been driven by continued improved market access. This should come as a result of adding new hospitals and deepening penetration at existing hospitals by broadening the base of surgeons using Catalyst. All in all, we forecast Q3 organic sales growth of 38%, adding up to SEK 46.2m and EBIT of SEK -8.5m with a gross margin of 95.5% (96.9% in Q3'24). We expect a small increase in opex vs. Q2'25 as the company continues to invest in R&D and its sales and marketing team. Estimate changes We have updated our forecasts ahead of Q3, cutting EBIT by 4.0-4.7% for '25e-'27e on updated FX and some fine-tuning of our operational assumptions. We are now forecasting 49% organic sales growth in FY'25e, down from 50%, but leave our organic sales growth assumption of 30% unchanged for FY'26e-'27e. Fair value range revised to SEK 11-18 (12-18) We revise our fair value range, based on our updated forecasts, to SEK 11-18 (12-18) ahead of the Q3 results. We arrive at our fair value range using a DCF model with a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 10%. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2025/10/ossdsign---encouraging-core-despite-near-term-headwinds-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2025/10/ossdsign---encouraging-core-despite-near-term-headwinds-/ Wed, 29 Oct 2025 16:30:06 GMT SE0012570448 Analys Solid Q3 across the board Firm management guidance on more M&A P/CEPS <14x with strong fundamentals Q3 report takeaways Eastnine delivered a Q3 report with sales -1%, NOI -1%, rec PTP +2% and EPRA NRV 0% vs our expectations. Occupancy was stable and net letting a small negative. We lower our CEPS estimates by ~2-1% for 2025e-2026e, driven by slightly lower top-line assumptions on future move-outs, and partly due to a larger-than-expected cash position. The large cash position takes up net financial expenses in the near term, and although the explanation (upcoming M&A) makes 100% sense, and we clearly understand the dynamics, we do not model template acquisitions on the back of their binary nature, which leads to negative CEPS revisions. We do, however, want to stress that we expect positive revisions going forward (see more below). Warsaw the preferred location for more M&A Management was very firm in its outlook statements and in the conference call that it is looking to add more acquisitions. The preferred location is Warsaw, where it most recently (Q4'24) completed the EUR 280m acquisition of Warsaw Unit. The 2025e net LTV and NIBD/EBIT stand at ~46.4% and ~8.4x, respectively, which allows for further growth. We have several examples of companies in the Swedish real estate space that have moved from an LTV target of ~50% to ~55% in the recent 3–6 months (partly on the back of very supportive credit markets and banks), and we find no evidence why Eastnine would not be open to the same approach. Strong fundamentals for more growth ahead Contrary to the Swedish office companies, Eastnine has solid occupancy (~97%), high NOI margins (~93-94%), low amounts of capex (~0.5% of property value or <10% of NOI during the past couple of years) and high cash generation (CEPS/EPRA NRV at ~6.2% in 2026e). The share is trading at a 2026e P/CEPS <14x, and as stated earlier, we believe there is more upside potential to estimates. ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eastnine/Equity-research/2025/10/eastnine---going-for-more-in-warsaw/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eastnine/Equity-research/2025/10/eastnine---going-for-more-in-warsaw/ Wed, 29 Oct 2025 11:00:04 GMT SE0002158568 Analys Net sales SEK 529m, +2% vs ABGSCe, +3% vs Factset cons. EBITA SEK 80m, +5% vs ABGSCe, +6% vs cons Outlook: market remains hesitant, Svedbergs accelerated Q3 in brief: 6% better EBITA than cons Our impression is that Svedbergs Group's Q3'25 report is better than Factset consensus estimates overall. The Group reports net sales of SEK 529m, for organic growth of +7% y-o-y. This is +2% vs ABGSCe and +3% vs cons. Looking closer at the three largest segments, Svedbergs grew 7%, Roper Rhodes by 3% (+9% org.) and Thebalux by -1% (+2% org.), which means the deviation to our sales estimate was primarily driven by Svedbergs. All segments delivered positive org. growth and an improved margin y-o-y. Gross margins grew 250bp y-o-y to 48.5% on previous price adjustments. This was the primary reason for 120bp better EBITA margins y-o-y, for EBITA of SEK 80, +5% vs ABGSCe and +6% vs cons. FCF improved from SEK -2.4m in Q3'24 to SEK +86.2m in Q3'25. Outlook: market remains hesitant In the Q2 report, Svedbergs Group said the current market climate remained uncertain but manageable, and we assessed that the message was of a delayed recovery driven by this uncertainty. In Q3, it largely reiterates this message. As such, it appears the accelerated growth in Svedbergs is driven by an added sales focus and not primarily a better market. Conclusion: Q3 moves consensus EBITA by +1.5% The share has returned -1% L3M, and is now trading at 10.5x-9x our '25e-'26e EV/EBITA vs a historical trading range of 7x-11x NTM. The Q3 report moves consensus' '25e EBITA by +1.5%. Svedbergs Group hosts a conference call and Q&A today at 10:00 CET, a dial-in link can be found here . Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Factset, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2025/10/svedbergs-group---q3-12-ebita-growth-all-segments-contribute/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2025/10/svedbergs-group---q3-12-ebita-growth-all-segments-contribute/ Wed, 29 Oct 2025 07:00:05 GMT SE0000407991 Analys More margin gains, 12% target now looking conservative Adj. EBITA raised by 1-2% for '25e-'27e, mainly from Engineered Trading at 14.5x '26e EV/EBITA vs. five-year average 15.3x More margin gains, 12% target now looking conservative Nolato reported a solid set of numbers, with adj. EBITA 2% above Modular Finance IR consensus. The beat was driven by Engineered Solutions, while Medical Solutions came in below expectations. This marked the fourth consecutive quarter of margin expansion, and at an 11.7% adj. EBITA margin, Nolato is now closing in on its 12% target that was introduced as recently as March 2025. We argue that the target, which seemed ambitious a couple of quarters ago, is now starting to look conservative, as we see several avenues for further improvement. These include: 1) the ramp-up of volumes from the new Hungary site starting Q2'26e, which management has said will be margin-accretive to the Medical segment, 2) a recovery in the high-margin materials sub-segment driving positive mix effects, and 3) improvements in the still-underperforming US Medical business. Adj. EBITA raised by 1-2%, driven by Engineered Engineered cleared our Q3 margin estimate by some distance, and we do not think the underlying drivers are temporary, so we raise the segment's EBITA estimates by 5-7%. Meanwhile, our 1% EBITA cuts in Medical are explained by updated FX assumptions, while our revisions amount to +1-2% on EBITA for '25e-'27e at the group level. 14.5x '26e EV/EBITA, slightly below 5Y average 15.3x On our estimates, the share is now trading at 14.5x '26e EV/EBITA, slightly below its five-year average of 15.3x, offering '26e-'27e lease adj. FCF yields of 5% per year. We also highlight that the higher-quality Medical segment has gone from 34% of EBITA to 59% during the past five years. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2025/10/nolato---no-drama-just-solid-delivery/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2025/10/nolato---no-drama-just-solid-delivery/ Tue, 28 Oct 2025 20:00:05 GMT SE0015962477 Analys Adj. EBITA SEK 274m (+4% vs. ABG, +2% vs. IR consensus) We expect consensus adj. EBITA to come up by 1-2% 14.5x '26e EV/EBITA on pre-Q3 estimates (and on yesterday's close) Q3 outcome Sales came in at SEK 2,342m (+1% vs. ABG 2,324m, 0% vs. IR cons 2,344m), down 2% y-o-y, but organic growth was +2% (ABG +1%). Adj. EBITA was SEK 274m (+4% vs ABG 265m, +2% vs. cons 268m), for an adj. EBITA margin of 11.7% (ABG 11.4%, cons 11.5%), and this adjusts for a positive SEK 7m one-off from an insurance claim in the US (booked in other income and not affecting either business area). The higher-quality segment Medical came in 4% below consensus expectations on EBITA, while Engineered was 9% above. FCF was SEK 118m (ABG 166m), for an FCF/net income conversion of 55%. Outlook and estimate changes The company does not provide much in terms of outlook commentary in the report. Regarding the expansion project in Hungary tied to a specific, larger customer project, validation deliveries have started and will remain at similar levels in the coming quarters, followed by a subsequent increase. All in all, we expect consensus adj. EBITA to come up by 1-2% on the slight earnings beat. Valuation and conference call details On our pre-Q3 estimates (and on yesterday's closing price) the share trades at 14.5x '26e EV/EBITA, slightly below its historical average of 15.3x. The report was solid with earnings slightly above expectations, although not in the highest-quality segment Medical. Finally, the company will host a conference call at 14:45 CEST, register here . Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier estimates, Modular Finance IR consensus https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2025/10/nolato---slight-beat-on-adj.-ebita/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2025/10/nolato---slight-beat-on-adj.-ebita/ Tue, 28 Oct 2025 13:30:08 GMT SE0015962477 Analys A minor miss compared to FactSet consensus expectations Small signs of improvement, with a flattening utilisation rate y-o-y Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of ~9x Market remains challenging, but shows some improvement Q3 missed slightly on sales (-5% vs. ABGSCe) and adj. EBITA (-7% vs. ABGSCe). Organically, sales declined ~14%, affected by a weaker market in Sweden, where project activity remained limited. However, sales saw an increase of 4% y-o-y, mainly due to M&A contributions from Poland and Habberstad. Adj. EBITA came in at SEK 7m, for a margin of 3%, driven by lower overhead costs in Sweden. Martin Stenström will step down as CEO and Daniel Juhlin, a current board member at B3 and CEO of Order Impact, will take over the CEO position on 1 February. Cut estimates by 4-1% adj. EBITA for '26e-'27e On the back of the report, we cut adj. EBITA by 4-1% for '26e-'27e, as the market still faces price pressure and remains challenging overall. However, we note some early positive signs: 1) utilisation has improved slightly, and 2) discussions about rate increases are now possible. We expect B3 to return to positive net recruitment, and see utilisation normalising in H1'26e. The company continues to adjust its cost base and operational model to become more efficient, and we retain our positive view of B3 despite the soft earnings profile. Valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~9x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~15-20% below current peer multiples and over 20% below the historical average for Nordic IT services peers. We continue to see B3 as well-positioned for '26e-'27e, supported by stabilising market conditions. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2025/10/b3-consulting-group---early-signs-of-recovery-emerging/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2025/10/b3-consulting-group---early-signs-of-recovery-emerging/ Sun, 26 Oct 2025 21:45:04 GMT SE0008347660 Analys External headwinds delay earnings recovery until 2026e '25e-'27e EBIT down 27-3%; 18% EBIT CAGR '24-'27e 19-13x EBIT '26e-'27e, ~40-50% ROCE, net cash 2025 to be a challenging year... The fact that the aerospace industry is gradually getting its supply chain in order, and that OEMs are now clearly increasing production rates, unfortunately had little impact on CTT's near-term earnings. Q3 sales was roughly in the middle of CTT's own guidance, but we fear that CTT will see fairly stable sales into Q4 due to FX headwinds and inventory destocking. What is clear, however, is the strong growth potential going into 2026 – something that was also emphasised by management during the conference call. Starting in Q1'26, we expect normalised inventory levels among distributors, increased production rates, normalised lead times and higher content per aircraft to allow CTT to almost double system sales vs. 2024 and grow by ~50-30% in 2027e-28e. In addition, the installed base continued to grow in 2025, which should support >20% growth in aftermarket sales during '26e. With growth turning positive again, we expect the scalability of the business model to allow CTT to offset FX headwinds and return to >30% EBIT margins (19% '25e). ...but increased confidence in 2026 recovery We lower '25e EBIT by 27% due to lower AM sales and FX, and '26e-'27e EBIT by 3%. From 2026e, the combination of accelerated OEM sales, increased customer wins within both VIP and retrofits, and a recovering aftermarket business should drive ~50-40% organic sales growth and ~130-50% EBIT growth (18% adj. EBIT CAGR '24-'27e). Multi-year double-digit growth potential The core strengths of CTT remain: the company benefits from a near-monopolistic market position, strong demand, and its margin-accretive AM business. This should drive long-term double-digit earnings growth, while the share is now trading at 43/19/13x EBIT '25e-'27e (22x L10Y), offers 3-6% dividend yields '25e-'27... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ctt-systems/Equity-research/2025/10/ctt-systems---waiting-on-the-world-to-change/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ctt-systems/Equity-research/2025/10/ctt-systems---waiting-on-the-world-to-change/ Sun, 26 Oct 2025 21:15:03 GMT SE0000418923 Analys Q3 EBITDA of NOK 14m Signs of improvement Limited underlying estimate changes - DCF NOK 15/sh Q3 EBITDA of NOK 14m StrongPoint delivered a decent Q3, with revenue up +2% y-o-y (NOK 320m vs. NOK 313m in Q3'24) and EBITDA at NOK 14m vs. ABGSCe NOK 9m. This translated into an EBITDA margin of 4.3%, up from 3.9% in Q3'24. The top-line growth was solely driven by UK & Ireland, which was up 127% y-o-y (AutoStore implementation and ESL installations). The revenues in the Nordics declined 12%, driven by lower product sales of low-margin ESL hardware and hard comps as several large rollouts were completed last year. Note that the gross margin increased by 2.2pp y-o-y, driven by a higher share of services (ESL and AutoStore installations). StrongPoint reiterated its long-term ambitions (EBITDA margin >10% and "healthy" revenue growth), and while not there yet, the YTD margin of 3.1% is +3.4pp from the same period last year, i.e. slow and steady improvements. Signs of improvement The past few years have been challenging for StrongPoint, but 2025 indicates a recovery, with YTD EBITDA at NOK 31m, vs. NOK -3m in the same period last year (reported figures). Further, recurring revenue continues to grow, +12% y-o-y in Q3’25, driven by a 27% increase in licence revenue. We understand that some of the improvements stem from StrongPoint delivering on its Order Picking solution, so we find it encouraging that a leading retailer, MC (Portugal's top grocery retailer), chose the StrongPoint solution to replace its existing solution, i.e. we see this as a proof-of-concept for the StrongPoint Order Picking solution. Limited underlying estimate changes – DCF NOK 15/sh We make limited changes to our underlying estimates, and with Sainsbury's and MC Order Picking rollouts expected by summer '26, we see potential for a stronger '26e. Our DCF points to NOK 15/sh (fair value range of NOK 8-18/sh). https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2025/10/strongpoint---signs-of-improvement/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2025/10/strongpoint---signs-of-improvement/ Sun, 26 Oct 2025 19:15:02 GMT NO0010098247 Analys Margin improvement in Q3 We raise '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 4-3% Trading ~30% below current peers on '26e-'27e EV/EBITA Cost-cutting starting to take effect Prevas' Q3 report was better than we expected, with a 1% sales beat of SEK 355m (351m vs. ABGSCe) and a 29% adj. EBITA beat of SEK 30m (23m vs. ABGSCe), mainly driven by strong Finland sales and cost-cutting from previous quarters starting to take effect. The adj. EBITA margin came in at 8% (7% in Q3'24), supported by workforce optimisation and cost control. Finland posted strong results of SEK 50m in sales, reflecting 36% y-o-y growth and contributing positively to group margins. Prevas' strongest segments continued to perform well, with defence growing by 33% y-o-y in terms of sales growth, followed by energy of 13%. We raise adj. EBITA estimates by 4-3% for '26e-'27e We raise our adj. EBITA estimates by 4-3% for '26e-'27e, driven by improved sales execution, ongoing cost control, and staffing adjustments that should enhance efficiency. While we remain cautious on Denmark, where sales declined 9% y-o-y (mainly due to Novo Nordisk cutting costs), we note that segments such as export-related industry (excluding automotive, e.g. Volvo Cars) are performing well. Additionally, life science is showing early signs of recovery. Trading ~30% below its peers On our revised estimates, Prevas is trading at 8-6x EV/EBITA for '26e-'27e, which is ~30% below its peers' median. Market demand seems to be cautious but stable, and we continue to expect gradual market stabilisation in H1'26e. We maintain our positive view on Prevas, given its solid positioning in high-growth segments and potential for further margin expansion as market conditions normalise. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2025/10/prevas---costs-came-down-margins-came-around/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2025/10/prevas---costs-came-down-margins-came-around/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 17:30:13 GMT SE0000356008 Analys Further margin & CF improvements in Q4... ...but somewhat slower organic growth We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 35-80 Further margin & CF improvements in Q4 Coor delivered 4% y-o-y organic growth and the margin improved (+0.4pp y-o-y to 4.5%), rendering 12% adjusted EBITA growth. The cash conversion also improved, which eased the pressure on the balance sheet (gearing decreased from 2.9x in Q2 to 2.7x). We expect continued strong cash flow in Q4, resulting in a gearing of 2.5x, which is back to its preferred range (2.0-2.5x). We think this in turn allows the company to either raise dividends again or initiate a share buyback programme in 2026. A payout in line with those of 2022-2023 would imply a yield of 11%. On the other hand, growth in Sweden and Denmark remains challenging due to a few contract losses, but management said contract wins in Norway should offset the declines. Moreover, half of the organic growth in Q3 was due to extraordinary variable volumes in Norway, which we expect will normalise from Q4. We therefore expect somewhat slower organic growth in the coming quarters (1-2%). No material estimate changes We make limited estimate changes; despite slightly higher EBITA than we expected in Q3, most of the beat came from Norway, while we expect Denmark and Sweden to weigh more on growth from Q4e and into 2026e. This leads us to cut '26e-''27 sales by 1% and adj. EBITA by 1-2%. Even so, we expect high adj. EBITA growth in Q4e (+59%) and H1'26e (+11%) from margin improvements. EBITA multiple back below 10x for '26e The share reacted negatively on the Q3 numbers. This combined with relatively limited estimate changes means that the valuation has decreased. The share now trades at 9x EBITA on 2026e, vs our service peer group at 10x, while we expect Coor to deliver a lease adjusted FCF yield of 11% vs peers at 9%. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 35-80 per share. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/coor/Equity-research/2025/10/coor---margins-and-cf-to-improve-further/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/coor/Equity-research/2025/10/coor---margins-and-cf-to-improve-further/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 16:30:15 GMT SE0007158829 Analys Stronger than expected across the board We raise '25e-'27e adj. EBIT by 10-3% Trading at ~8x EV/EBIT on our NTM estimates Strong sales, adj. EBIT even better Sales were better than we expected in Q3, and adj. EBIT was also significantly higher. FX had an impact on Q3 sales of SEK -16m. Sales were positively affected by a spill-over from the soft Q2, as 2025 is showing a later seasonal pattern than usual. The outdoor segment is showing continued strength, but the company does not expect the luxury market to recover until mid 2026. Order bookings decreased by 12.5% y-o-y to SEK 224m, which was in line with our expected range (SEK 210-230m). The order book was affected by an order of SEK 18m that came into Q3'24, but is delayed into Q4'25e. Moreover, the gross margin was slightly decreased to 47%, but is still above the historical average Q3 level of 45.5%, as packaging sales in the luxury segment have decreased. Adj. EBIT was very strong, growing 34% y-o-y for a margin of 11.4% (+2pp y-o-y), mainly due to Nilörn's strong operating leverage. We raise sales and earnings estimates We increase our '25e-'27e sales estimates by ~3%, following the report and updated FX. We also raise '25e-'27e adj. EBIT by 10-3% on the back of the report. We keep our assumptions that the '26e-'27e GM will be slightly lower than in '25e, as packaging sales should return. However, we believe that as volumes increase and the current investments start to pay off, Nilörn will be able to increase its profit margins in '26e-'27e. We note that the timeline for the investments in Bangladesh was pushed forward from late '26 to H1'27. Margins should reach the 10-12% target range in '27e, as capacity is filled. Valuation Our new estimates imply that Nilörn is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT of ~8x, which is ~10% below the five-year median for Nilörn and ~25% below peers. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2025/10/nilorn---we-label-this-a-strong-report/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2025/10/nilorn---we-label-this-a-strong-report/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 15:45:42 GMT SE0007100342 Analys Q3: Softer than expected, but back to growth We cut our sales and adj. EBITA estimates Share is trading at 11x-7x '25e-'26e EV/EBITA adj. Softer than expected Careium delivered solid sales in Q3, with organic growth of 9.4% compared to -8% in Q3'24 and -9% in Q2'25. The results on both sales and adj. EBIT were lower than we expected, but still represent a vast improvement from H1'25. The Nordics weighed on growth, down 14% y-o-y. Excluding the effect of financial leases, Careium commented that Q3 organic sales growth in the Nordics would have been 11%. The GM improved to 44.2%, 1.5pp over Q3'24, following increased overall efficiency coupled with a favourable sales mix. Adj. EBITA came in at SEK 19m, up 2% y-o-y, with a margin contraction of 0.4pp to 9%. The year of tough comps is soon over 2025 has so far faced tough comps, as Careium is moving away from financial lease contracts, which include up-front revenue. Starting in Q1'26, these up-front revenues will no longer be included in the comps to the same extent. Moving forward, recurring revenues will increase, which improves visibility. Moreover, we are encouraged by the seemingly positive trend in the underlying markets. That said, Q4'25e faces much tougher comps on both sales and earnings (compared to Q3). Careium reiterated its financial targets for '25e, where it calls for increased sales, profitability and cash flows. We believe that increased organic sales and FCF are within reach, but assess that raising adj. EBIT y-o-y will be difficult. We cut sales and adj. EBITA estimates We cut '25e-'27e sales by ~1% on the back of the report and u pdated FX movements. '25e EBIT is downwardly revised by 11%, mainly due to the mechanical impact of the earnings miss, of which the majority was caused by an NRI and should not be fully extrapolated into '26e-'27e. We do, however, lower adj. EBITA by 5-2% following the report. On our updated estimates, the s hare is trading at 11x-7x '25e-... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2025/10/careium---careful-steps-forward/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2025/10/careium---careful-steps-forward/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 15:45:13 GMT SE0017131824 Analys Q3 NAV 2% above ABGSCe Private valuation gains signal underlying strength P/NAV higher, discount still above 5Y average Green Landscaping weighed on Q3 NAV Byggmästaren’s Q3 NAVPS was SEK 305, 2% above our estimate, with the beat driven by positive valuation revisions. NAV fell 4% q-o-q, primarily due to a weak quarter for Green Landscaping stock, in which Byggmästaren increased its holdings following the company’s Q3 release. Q3 total shareholder return was +2% as the NAV discount narrowed by 6pp to 11%. We believe the tightening largely reflected the 30 September capital allocation announcement (see separate note). Over the past five years, Byggmästaren has delivered a 14% annual NAV total return, ahead of SIXRX at 10%, and amongst the best in our coverage. Continued strong momentum in the private portfolio Private asset valuations increased by SEK 39m, driven by Team Olivia and DP Patterning (DPP). Safe Life was held unchanged (EUR terms) vs. the recent transaction level and continues to perform well, with total growth of 57% and an adj. EBITA margin of 10.5% in Q3. DPP delivered promising, profitable growth, and Byggmästaren added to its investment. Team Olivia saw a higher valuation on stronger earnings and higher peer multiples, and continues to carry a significant net cash position. Fasticon posted a smaller valuation increase, performing well despite a still-challenging market. 11% NAV discount above historical average The shares trade at an 11% NAV discount, vs a 9% five-year average and the gap is wider than for many peers. We fine-tune our fair value range to SEK 240-360 (from 244-359). The company will host Byggmästardagen 2025 on 10 November. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Equity-research/2025/10/byggmastaren---momentum-strong-capital-moves-lift-pnav/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Equity-research/2025/10/byggmastaren---momentum-strong-capital-moves-lift-pnav/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 14:45:14 GMT SE0006510491 Analys https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Media/2025/byggmastaren-earnings-call-q3/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/byggmastaren/Media/2025/byggmastaren-earnings-call-q3/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 14:03:36 GMT SE0006510491 fyCcjK7Kz-U Media Sales beat, lower costs and executing on M&A Adj. EBITA up 3-4% 2025-27e, 12% adj. EBITA growth '26e Share at 6.7x 2026e EV/adj. EBITA, 40% below peers Nordics & Baltics and the UK shine alongside cloud orders Regionally, Proact continues to deliver solid earnings growth in both Nordics & Baltics (NOBA) and the UK, with the acquisition of BlakYaks showing particularly strong performance alongside the operating margin in NOBA. We also highlight the 143% y-o-y growth in cloud order intake, with some larger deals won in the West and Central segments (where Proact continues to focus on lower costs and narrowing its offering). This increases the likelihood of returning to positive organic growth in cloud revenue in 2026e, in our view, following the effects of a more hesitant IT spending market. Margin-wise, NOBA remains above a 10% R12m EBITA margin and the UK has shown a clear improvement to 4.4% (2.7% in Q2), while West and Central continue to struggle at -0.2-0.3%. This should mean that Proact continues to evaluate the divestment of the West and Central segments, which we have previously highlighted as a potential trigger. This would increase group profitability and free up excess cash. On a weak note, operating cash flow (OCF) was somewhat soft in the quarter at SEK -28m (83m), with YTD OCF -51% y-o-y. Positive estimate revisions We make small underlying estimate changes, but also add the recent acquisition of Consular. All in all, we raise adj. EBITA by 3-4% in 2025-27e and mainly see potential upside risk to margin estimates in 2026-27e. Valuation remains below peers The share has been weak over the past 12 months (-25%), but estimates now seem to be trending upwards again. With the addition of M&A, cost reductions mainly behind us and a return to cloud revenue growth in 2026e, the valuation has come down to 6.7x 2026e EV/adj. EBITA on our updated estimates. This is 40% below peers, and Proact continues to execute on its buyb... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2025/10/proact---much-to-like/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2025/10/proact---much-to-like/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 12:45:13 GMT SE0015961222 Analys Sales +1% and adj. EBITA +29% vs ABGSCe Strong within defence and cybersecurity Consensus EBITA likely down up mid single-digits Q3'25 details Prevas reports Q3'25 sales of SEK 355m (1% vs. ABGSCe 351m), and organic growth of -1%, with a notable contribution from Finland. Reported adj. EBITA came in at SEK 30m (29% vs. ABGSCe 23m), with an adj. EBITA margin of 8%, supported by improved delivery mix, higher project share, and efficiency gains following earlier restructuring. Momentum building in core segments Market sentiment remains cautious, but key segments such as defence and cybersecurity continue to grow, with defence sales up 33% y-o-y. Finnish market continues to strengthen, supported by larger projects and a higher proportion of project deliveries contributing to margins. Positive consensus estimate revisions Prevas is trading at ~7x '26e EV/EBITA on our unrevised estimates. Based on our initial impression of the report, we expect consensus adj. EBITA to mechanically come up by mid single-digits. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2025/10/prevas---margins-improve-on-stronger-mix/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/prevas/Equity-research/2025/10/prevas---margins-improve-on-stronger-mix/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 07:16:00 GMT SE0000356008 Analys Sales in-line with CTT's guidance, EBIT below ABGSCe Removed Q4 guidance due to increased short-term uncertainty Improving activity from 2026, but potentially slow Q4 as well Q3 details Sales were 5% below our expectations, while the SEK 74m was in the middle of CTT's own guidance of 70-80m, with +39% organic sales growth (ABGSCe +42%). This was driven by lower aftermarket sales (0% y-o-y vs. ABG +18%), as system sales grew vs. Q2 (+116% y-o-y vs. ABG +89%). AM share of sales was 59% (ABG 66%). EBIT grew 26% y-o-y (ABG +70% y-o-y), as the margin came in at 25% (ABG 32%, 26% Q3'24) due to FX headwinds and a lower share of AM sales. Free cash flow of ~33m (~7m last year) was strong. Outlook and estimate changes CTT has decided to not give any specific guidance for Q4 due to unusually large FX movements, shorter lead times from order to delivery and changed buying behavior among distributors, while also flagging the risk of distributor destocking before the end of the year. We had assumed sales to grow to SEK 89m (vs. the reported 74m in Q3) due to both higher system and AM sales. Looking further ahead, the CEO says that growth drivers have strengthened further, and expect that "starting in Q1'26 and for several years to come" that CTT will deliver strong sales growth in systems, and for AM sales to "increase" vs. 2025. All other assumptions intact, the Q3 deviation on EBIT vs. ABGSCe would lower our FY'25e-'26e EBIT by 9-5%, with the removed Q4 outlook potentially adding some uncertainty to our Q4 assumptions as well. In addition, using current FX rates vs. our latest published note, we note that the USD/SEK would lower sales by 1-2%, with a greater impact on EBIT (usually a 2-2.5x impact on EBIT vs. sales) Final thoughts As expected FX headwinds would significantly affect CTT, but we had expected inventory destocking to be largely complete by now among CTT's distributors. Although we see signs also from aerospace OEMs that activity is improvin... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ctt-systems/Equity-research/2025/10/ctt-systems---near-term-uncertainty-into-q4-remains/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ctt-systems/Equity-research/2025/10/ctt-systems---near-term-uncertainty-into-q4-remains/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 07:15:38 GMT SE0000418923 Analys -5% organic growth (cons -7%) and adj. EBITA +18% vs cons Cloud orders up 142% y-o-y, Nordics & Baltics and the UK strongest Estimates up 4-6%, share likely to outperform post recent weakness Q3 details Sales SEK 1,084m (4% vs ABG 1,037m, no cons). Adj. EBITA 76m (18% vs ABG 65m), Adj. EBITA margin 7.0% (ABG 6.2%). Organic growth -5% (vs ABG -7%), of which system sales -8% (ABG -10%) and services 0% (ABG -3%). Adj. EBITA -4% y-o-y (ABG -19%) on a tough comp and a weaker market, off-set by cost reductions. Better than expected on both revenues streams, and 6% lower opex. OCF at SEK -28m (83m in Q3’24) is a bit soft. Nordics & Baltics and the UK strongest in the group Nordics & Baltics leading the way, UK develops positively while West (Netherlands) and Central (Germany) remained challenging. Cautiously optimistic outlook highlighting the local partner presence for US vendors as a positive in the geopolitical landscape, as well as continuously looking for cost improvements. Cloud order intake of SEK 248m in Q3 is up 142% y-o-y and considered very strong. Estimates up 4-6%, share to outperform We expect consensus to raise adj. EBITA by 4-6% and share likely to outperform the market today similarly (+5-10%) post recent weakness (share -19% last 6 months). Conf call at CET 9.30. Deviation Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2025/10/proact---18-adj.-ebita-beat-in-q3/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2025/10/proact---18-adj.-ebita-beat-in-q3/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 07:15:16 GMT SE0015961222 Analys Sales +13% and adj. EBIT +39% vs. ABGSCe Order intake SEK 224m, in line with ABGSCe Likely positive consensus estimate revisions Q3'25 impressions Nilörn delivered sales of SEK 230m (13% vs ABGSCe 203m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 18%. The order intake came in at SEK 224m, implying a y-o-y growth of -13%. For reference, we expected order bookings in the range of SEK 210-230m. The decline is due to a larger order of SEK 18m that was received in Q3'24 but will be received in Q4'25. Moreover, the seasonal pattern in 2025 lappers to be later, which partially drove the higher than expected volumes in Q3 vs. Q2. The gross margin slightly decreased to 47.3%, which is in line with estimates. Adj. EBIT amounted to SEK 26m (39% vs ABGSCe 19m), for a margin of 11.4% (2.1pp vs ABGSCe 9.3%), vs. 9.4% Q3'24. Nilörn's scalable business model leads to operating leverage in periods of large volumes, which partly drove the EBIT beat vs. our estimates. Thoughts and outlook Looking at the market, the luxury segment is continuing to struggle with retailers holding on to high inventory levels, and recovery is not expected until 2026. The outdoor and sports segment is however performing well, which is encouraging to see. Nilörn:CONNECT is also doing well, and the CEO comments on increasing demand due to EU requirements. Moreover, Nilörn is continuing its investments in Bangladesh and e.g. its launch of the new PLM system (Product Lifecycle Management), which will be implemented in Q4'25 and is expected to increase efficiency. Overall, this quarter is encouraging from a profitability point of view, however, the softer profitability in H1'25 could make it challenging for Nilörn to achieve its targeted EBIT margin. Mechanical impact on cons. earnings is within a h.s.d. range The share is down ~18% YTD and Nilörn is trading at ~8x '25e EV/EBIT on our unrevised estimates. The mechanical impact on consensus estimates on ... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2025/10/nilorn---a-beat-across-the-board/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nilorn/Equity-research/2025/10/nilorn---a-beat-across-the-board/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 07:00:33 GMT SE0007100342 Analys Q3 sales 3% below our ests. at SEK 214m, for 9.4% org. growth Adj. EBIT SEK 19m vs. ABGSCe 22m Trading at 9x-7x '25e-'26e EV/EBITA adj. Solid growth, EBIT weighed down by financial leases Careium delivered sales of SEK 214m (-3% vs ABGSCe 221m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 9.4% (-1.9pp vs ABGSCe 11.3%). Segment wise, service sales was SEK 147m (-11% vs ABGSCe 166m), and product sales was SEK 66m (20% vs ABGSCe 55m). UK & Ireland was the primary growth driver (17%), albeit from light comps (-19% Q3'24). Sales in Sweden were negatively impacted by the accounting of financial leases, which had an effect of SEK 21.9m, leading to negative sales growth in the Nordics of -14.2% y-o-y. Excluding the impact of the classification of financial leases, Careium comments that Nordics net sales would have increased 11%. The gross margin increased to 44.2% (0.1pp vs ABGSCe 44.1%). Opex came in at SEK -80m (7% vs ABGSCe -75m). EBIT amounted to SEK 14m (-36% vs ABGSCe 22m), however, affected by a one-off of SEK 4.6m related to the recent change of CEO. Adj. EBIT was therefore SEK 19m (-15% vs. ABGSCe 22m), for a margin of 8.8% (-1.3pp vs ABGSCe 10.1%), vs. 8.2% Q3'24. Cash flow and outlook FCF in Q3 amounted to SEK 14m, vs. ABGSCe SEK 23m. This is an increase of SEK 10.9m y-o-y. FCF was below our expectations, mainly due to the lower than expected earnings. Capex increased to SEK -20.4m vs -10.3m in Q3'24, as a lower number of contracts were classified as financial leases. We are encouraged by the strong sales in UK and Germany. The new CEO also commented that Careium is poised to participate in market consolidation, but should tread lightly when looking for M&A opportunities. Moreover, the company reiterates its targets for 2025. From Q1'26, the impact of financial lease accounting is expected to be significantly reduced. Valuation and conference call details On our pre-Q3 estimates, the share is trading at 9 x- 7 x ‘25-'... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2025/10/careium---back-to-growth-but-soft-on-earnings/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2025/10/careium---back-to-growth-but-soft-on-earnings/ Fri, 24 Oct 2025 07:00:16 GMT SE0017131824 Analys Small negative sales estimate revisions Long term outlook is encouraging Reiterate fair value range of SEK 30-45 Long term investments weighed on Q3 The report was softer than we expected for both sales and EBITDA. While Q3 is seasonally the largest quarter, supported by the start of a new school year, Skolon recently signed new contracts that seemingly did not contribute to Q3 sales, presumably due to the contracts being signed later than usual. Moreover, Skolon's expansion into Germany requires investments in a new office and personnel, which weighed on margins. Paying users increased by 19% y-o-y and 3% q-o-q to 994k, leading to an ARPPU of SEK 179 (up 8.5% y-o-y). This alludes to increased engagement by users, and that new tools such as Skolon Guardians have been well-received. We anticipate that growth in the upcoming months will be primarily volume-driven and supported by an increased utilisation rate. We cut '25e-'27e sales by 4-2% We trim our '25e-'27e sales by 4-2% after the report. The EBITDA miss in Q3 leads to negative '25e revisions of 50%, however, keep in mind that the absolute change is merely SEK -2.7m. The Swedish operations continue to show positive EBITDA (7% margin YTD) and a 22pp higher GM than other markets for the quarter (34% vs 12% YTD). Volume growth has primarily stemmed from markets outside of Sweden, and new markets initially carry lower margins than more mature markets. We lower margins a tad for '26e-'27e, as we expect continued expansion internationally, leading to negative changes in '26e-'27e EBITDA. We do however note that other markets were EBITDA-positive (2%) in Q3 when isolated, likely driven by Norway, which is encouraging. Implied valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at '26e 10x EV/GP adj. (GP less capitalised work). We maintain our fair value range at SEK 30-45 on the back of the report, corresponding to a '26e EV/GP adj. range of 9x-14x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2025/10/skolon---international-investments-to-continue-in-26e/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2025/10/skolon---international-investments-to-continue-in-26e/ Thu, 23 Oct 2025 16:45:11 GMT SE0017615784 Analys NOI -1% and rec PTP +2% vs ABGSCe EC IFPM -3.4% q-o-q, partly due to cash position, ready for M&A Occupancy at 97%, cons estimates largely unchanged Recurring PTP +2% vs ABGSCe Eastnine delivered a Q3 report with rental income of EUR 15.5m (-1% vs ABGSCe) and NOI of EUR 14.5m (-1% vs ABGSCe). Central admin costs and net interest expenses were both better (below) our expectations, leading to recurring PTP of EUR 8.2m being +2% vs ABGSCe. Occupancy came down by 0.4pp sequentially to 96.7% and net letting amounted to -EUR 0.54m. The earnings capacity IFPM decreased by 3.4% sequentially on slightly lower rent, higher property costs and higher net financials. The average interest rate decreased q-o-q, so higher interest expenses in the earnings capacity is due to more gross debt (large cash position) on the back of being ready to do more M&A. Property values +0.5%, net LTV down 0.7pp q-o-q to 47% Property value changes in the quarter amounted to EUR 5m (+0.5% of property value), where we had anticipated +0.4%. The valuation yield was flat q-o-q. The net LTV (ABGSC definition) decreased by 0.7pp q-o-q to 47% and the average interest rate was down slightly q-o-q but still rounds to 4.4%. EPRA NRV per share came in at EUR 5.1 (0% vs ABGSCe). Conclusion Q3 recurring PTP was +2% vs ABGSCe, driven by better central administration and net financial expenses. Solid operational figures such as high occupancy (96.7%, -0.4pp q-o-q) strong NOI margin (93.2%). The earnings capacity IFPM per share decreased by 3.4% sequentially, but part of this is driven by Eastnine having a larger cash position, as it guides for more M&A in the near future. All in all, we expect consensus estimates to remain largely unchanged on the back of the report and do not expect any material share price reaction today, although the very clear guidance on more M&A could be viewed as a positive. CC at CET 15.00 Q3 Report 2025 Deviation table Source: A... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eastnine/Equity-research/2025/10/eastnine---guiding-for-more-ma/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/eastnine/Equity-research/2025/10/eastnine---guiding-for-more-ma/ Thu, 23 Oct 2025 12:30:16 GMT SE0002158568 Analys Rec. PTP -4% vs ABGSCe Occupancy flat q-o-q, as are values Share to underperform the sector today Rec PTP -5% vs ABGSCe Fastpartner delivered a Q3 report with rental income of SEK 569m (+1.0% vs ABGSCe of SEK 563m and -0.9% y-o-y), while NOI amounted to SEK 412m (0.0% vs ABGSCe of SEK 412m and -1.9% y-o-y). The NOI margin amounted to 72.5% vs ABGSCe at 73.2% and 73.2% in Q3'24. Rec. PTP amounted to SEK 217m (-4.9% vs ABGSCe of SEK 228m and +12.8% y-o-y). Occupancy was essentially unchanged q-o-q at 91.3% (91.3% in Q2), and 91.7% (91.8% in Q2) adjusted for projects. Property values and LTV essentially flat Property value changes amounted to SEK 5m (0.0%), compared to our estimate of SEK 43m (0.1%). The average valuation yield was unchanged at 5.2% (5.2% in Q2'25). The adj. EPRA NRV (ABGSC calculation) amounted to SEK 91.6 per share, 1.4% y-o-y and -0.3% vs ABGSCe. Net LTV was up 0.1pp q-o-q from 47.5% in Q2 to 47.6%. The average interest rate was down by 0.1pp q-o-q to 3.7% by the end of Q3. Conclusion Guidance for IFPM NTM of SEK 860m, vs Q2 of SEK 880m, compared to our estimate of SEK 850m for 2025e and SEK 912m NTM. Postive commentary from the CEO on letting activity, stating demand is improving slightly for smaller premises, while larger tenants are more cautious but not downsizing to the same extent. We expect cons. to lower estimates (rec. PTP) by ~2-4% on the back of this report. In summary, we expect the share to trade slightly below the sector today. Results vs expectations Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/fastpartner/Equity-research/2025/10/fastpartner---rec.-ptp-miss-of-5-on-higher-net-financials/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/fastpartner/Equity-research/2025/10/fastpartner---rec.-ptp-miss-of-5-on-higher-net-financials/ Thu, 23 Oct 2025 12:30:12 GMT SE0013512506 Analys Q3 EBITDA NOK 14m vs ABGSCe NOK 9m Awaiting stabilised markets Only minor adjustments to estimates expected Q3: EBITDA of NOK 14m vs ABGSCe NOK 9m Sales increased 2% y-o-y, driven by strong development in the UK and Ireland (127% growth). Total revenues came in at NOK 320m, vs our NOK 358m. GP was -4% vs. our estimate, but StrongPoint had a solid GM of 45% (ABG 42.0%). EBITDA came in at NOK 14m vs. ABGSCe NOK 9m, on higher gross margin. The EBITDA margin landed at 4.3% (vs. ABGSCe 2.5%). This is up y-o-y (Q3'24 3.9%). EPS came in at NOK 0.38 vs. ABGSCe NOK 0.31. Cash flow from operations was stronger compared to Q2, at NOK 23m vs NOK 20m. Net debt came in at NOK 44.9m vs NOK 73.6m in Q2. No changes on outlook: StrongPoint states that they see continued improvement in both EBITDA and recurring revenue. The long term ambitions are healthy revenue growth and an EBITDA margin >10%. Awaiting stabilised markets The EBITDA margin is still pressed at ~2.7% (LTM), which compares to the company's long-term target of an EBITDA margin >10%. It remains a waiting game, but performance has improved in '25, with LTM EBITDA of NOK 36m. StrongPoint has now delivered five consecutive quarters of positive EBITDA, which is a step in the right direction from the negative results in Q4’23-Q2’24. Although a small positive, we see this as an encouraging development, and may indicate that the worst has past. With disposable funds of NOK 112m, we argue StrongPoint is in a decent position to await improved markets. Estimates largely unchanged The markets remain challenging, but estimates have already come down, and are thus likely to remain largely unchanged. pagebreak Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2025/10/strongpoint---decent-from-strongpoint/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2025/10/strongpoint---decent-from-strongpoint/ Thu, 23 Oct 2025 09:45:09 GMT NO0010098247 Analys A new divestment by Qben Infra... ...selling Kvalitetsbygg R AB... ...to Qben Infra's largest shareholder Two divestments in two weeks Qben Infra (Qben) has sold the largest part of Qben Construction, named Kvalitetsbyggg R AB, to the founder of Kvalitetsbygg and the largest shareholder in Qben (Per Anderson, who owns 26.7% of Qben, according to Factset). The construction contracting part of the platform (94% of '23 sales) is mainly carried out by the subsidiary Kvalitetsbygg R AB, which was founded in 2001 by Mr. Anderson. In the transaction, Mr. Anderson and Martin Bernstén (the #6 largest shareholder in Qben) are selling their Qben stocks to Arne Blystad, Ketil Skorstad, Kristian Lundkvist and Oivind Horpestad (all already shareholders in Qben). The Construction business is about 31% of Qben '25e sales and 35% of '25e EBITA. The transaction has to be approved by Swedish authorities, obligation holders and an extra general meeting. On the financials We estimate the combined effect of the divestment of Rail (last week) and the divestment of Kvalitetsbygg to lower '25e sales by 58% and EBITA by 38%. The immediate cash effect is minimal, as Qben will pay the buyers of Kvalitetsbygg SEK 10m. The purchase price of SEK 160m for Kvalitetsbygg is paid through a seller's promissory note of SEK 140m due on December 30 2027, and partly through the settlement of existing debt to Per Anderson and a cash payment totalling SEK 20m. In conjunction with this, Qben will also do a mandatory total redemption of the bond, and redeem it at 106% of the nominal amount per bond (together with accrued but unpaid interest). What is left then? As we stated in our 16 October fast comment , Qben Infra should be seen as an investment company. According to management, the transaction will free up resources that can be better utilised in the other fast-growing infrastructure business areas (Inspect, Residential development and Power), which are benefiting from heal... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qben-infra/Equity-research/2025/10/qben-infra---continues-to-streamline-its-business-model/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qben-infra/Equity-research/2025/10/qben-infra---continues-to-streamline-its-business-model/ Thu, 23 Oct 2025 08:00:11 GMT SE0023114012 Analys Sales -1% vs. ABGSCe (-7% y-o-y), adj. EBIT -8% vs. ABGSCe Solid margin outlook despite weaker volumes We expect cons to cut '26e EBIT c. 3-5% Q3 results Q3 sales were SEK 2,990m (-1% vs. ABGSCe 3,014m), -7% y-o-y. Gross profit was SEK 127m (+2% vs. ABGSCe SEK 124m), -1% y-o-y, while EBIT was SEK 28m (-25% vs. ABGSCe 37m). Also, please note NRIs of SEK 6m, meaning that adj. EBIT was SEK 34m, -8% vs. our forecast. The gross margin continued to increase in y-o-y terms, coming in at 4.2%, driven by Ework's continued focus on a better sales mix combined with the recent portfolio rebalancing. This is in line with the company's strategy, and is thus encouraging to see. Q3 thoughts The Nordic consultancy market has recently been tough, but Ework is managing rough waters solidly. On the back of recent changes - including churning out margin-dilutive contracts - the portfolio is now in a much better place than a couple of quarters ago, and comps are gradually becoming easier. Regarding the outlook, Ework highlights that its new digital platform is now established across the Nordics, with implementation in Poland and Slovakia planned for Q4’25. We believe this positions Ework well to drive automation, efficiency, and improved matching capabilities across its operations. Estimate changes Following the Q3 report, we expect consensus to cut '26e adj. EBIT estimates 3-5% on the back of slightly lower sales. There will be a conference call at 09.30 CET, link. Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2025/10/ework-group---solid-margin-resilience/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ework/Equity-research/2025/10/ework-group---solid-margin-resilience/ Thu, 23 Oct 2025 07:15:09 GMT SE0002402701 Analys Adj. EBITA 6% vs ABGSC, 1% vs consensus Norway drove beat; cash flow solid and gearing down to 2.7x Est's relatively unchanged; conference call at 10:00 CET Q3 results Sales SEK 3,005m (2% vs ABGSC 2,944m and 2% vs cons 2,952m). Adj. EBITA 134m (6% vs ABGSC 127m and 1% vs cons 132m). EBIT 98m (-12% vs ABGSC 112m and -12% vs cons 112m). Net profit 43m (-26% vs ABGSC 58m and -25% vs cons 57m). Organic growth was better (4% vs ABGSC 1%) but driven by unusually high variable volumes in Norway. Margins continued to recover (4.5% vs 4.1% last year), and cash conversion (FCF/EBITA) was solid (78%) leading to R12M cash conversion improving to 53%, up from 40% last quarter. Gearing was reduced to 2.7x vs 2.9x last quarter. Preliminary estimate changes While there was a small beat vs consensus, it was mainly driven by variable volumes in Norway, which currently are at unusually high levels which we should be careful to extrapolate. We therefore expect limited estimate revisions, but if anything, slightly positive. Final thoughts The report was solid, with continued improvements in margins, cash conversion and leverage. The gearing is now below the target of <3.0x but slightly above where the company aims to be over time (2.0-2.5x). However, we expect that it will reach that range in Q4. The share has performed well recently, +9% L3M, vs. OMXSGI +5% but still trades relatively in line with our group of service peers at 10x EBITA for 2026. Management will host a presentation of the report at 10:00 CET, you can use this link to participate in the webcast. Deviations Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data, Infront consensus https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/coor/Equity-research/2025/10/coor---solid-report-with-good-cf-and-reduced-gearing/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/coor/Equity-research/2025/10/coor---solid-report-with-good-cf-and-reduced-gearing/ Thu, 23 Oct 2025 07:00:09 GMT SE0007158829 Analys SEK 800m directed share issue completed, 28% dilution Next step is a rights issue of ~SEK 750m (~55% guaranteed) Full subscription looks likely, now well capitalised to re-open Viscaria SEK 800m directed share issue completed... Viscaria has announced a two-stage capital raise, with the first stage being a directed share issue that was completed yesterday evening. This amounted to SEK 800m (upsized from SEK 750m) at a subscription price of SEK 19/share, or 14.4% discount to yesterday's closing price. After the directed share issue, the new share count becomes 150.2mn, for an EPS dilution of 28%. Several existing shareholders participated, including Thomas von Koch and Jan Ståhlberg, who contributed SEK 200m, taking their combined ownership from 15.5% to 18.2% of outstanding shares. ...and a pending rights issue announced The second part of the capital raise will be a rights issue, open for all shareholders, of SEK 750m, for which the price has not yet been communicated. Thomas von Koch and Jan Ståhlberg have agreed to guarantee three times their pro-rata share after the directed share issue, which we calculate would amount to a guarantee 54.6%. However, 50% of their contribution will be settled against existing shareholder loans. Apart from this, Viscaria says there is indicated interest among existing institutional investors to participate. Well capitalised for development capex We see it as likely that the rights issue will be fully subscribed, and that Viscaria raises a total of SEK 1.55bn in gross proceeds (less settlement of shareholder loans and rights issue costs). Combined with the recently announced project debt financing package of up to SEK 3.9bn (terms still to be announced), this leaves the company well capitalised to invest in the re-opening the Viscaria mine, which we currently estimate will reach full production by 2029. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/viscaria/Equity-research/2025/10/viscaria---a-two-step-equity-raise/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/viscaria/Equity-research/2025/10/viscaria---a-two-step-equity-raise/ Thu, 23 Oct 2025 06:45:24 GMT SE0021148160 Analys Sales -7% vs. ABGSCe at SEK 63 m International expansion weighs on earnings Likely negative consensus estimate revisions Q3'25 report Skolon delivered net sales of SEK 63m (-7% vs ABGSCe 68m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth of 18% (-10pp vs ABGSCe 28%). Sales were negatively affected by the fact that new users joined later than usual relative to the start of the school year, compared to previous years. This temporarily puts a damper on growth and ARPPU, as these users are later to start paying for partner tools. We assess that this sale mix affected the gross margin positively, which increased to 20.6% (-0.6pp vs ABGSCe 21.2%). EBITDA amounted to SEK 2.6m (-1.6m vs ABGSCe 4.2m), for a margin of 4%, compared to 5% in Q3'24. EBITDA was negatively affected by the strategic expansion into Germany, as Skolon has opened a new office in Germany and made recruitments. However, EBITDA YTD amounts to SEK 1.5m compared to -0.8m YTD Q3'24. ARPPU came in at SEK 179 (1% vs ABGSCe 177), as the number of paying users amounted to SEK 994k (-3% vs ABGSCe 1,022k). Thoughts and outlook While the report was softer than expected, we believe that Q3'25 is highly affected by the timing of the two large contracts signed later than usual in Q2, and that the full effect on sales from these users will come into Q4. We further note that the Swedish operations yield an EBITDA margin of 7% (vs. -6% for its other, newer, markets), and that is confirmatory of the company's scaling opportunity. Internationally, the growth expansion opportunity is significant. Moreover, Skolon has officially launched Skolon Guardians during the quarter, which we believe will be ARPPU-enhancing, as our understanding is that schools require a higher tier account to access Skolon Guardians. The CEO commented that growth has been adversely affected by FX, and that the growing share of international sales will lead Skolon to report FX-effect starting 2026. Consensus estimate revisions and va... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2025/10/skolon---new-contracts-temporarily-weigh-on-results/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2025/10/skolon---new-contracts-temporarily-weigh-on-results/ Thu, 23 Oct 2025 06:45:09 GMT SE0017615784 Analys Sales -6% vs. cons, adj. EBITA -14% vs. cons Continued growth in Poland and Habberstad Consensus EBITA estimates likely down by LSD Q3'25 report Q3 came in softer than anticipated, with sales of SEK 255m, representing a 4% y-o-y growth (-6% vs. FactSet cons, -5% vs. ABGSCe). Adj. EBITA was SEK ~7m (-14% vs. cons, -7% vs. ABGSCe). Organic sales declined by approx. 14% y-o-y, and was a bit softer than expected, -4pp by consensus (ABGSCe -4pp), affected by an organic decline in Sweden. More specifically, the decline was primarily attributable to a lower organic headcount as well as a slight reduction in Sweden's utilisation rate. Thoughts and outlook While the Swedish operations continue to show negative organic growth and a marginal decline in the utilisation rate, B3 aims to achieve a positive net recruitment rate in 2026 in order to turn the momentum. Given that the company has slimmed its cost base, this initiative could be supportive for B3's future growth, even though it may temporarily (and mechanically) reduce the reported margin. In Poland and Norway, the performance remained solid, with new contract wins in several different sectors. Although market conditions remain uncertain, we think B3 is taking right structural actions to position itself once demand picks up. Finally, we note that Martin Stenström will step down as CEO and will be succeeded by Daniel Juhlin on February 1, 2026. Consensus estimate revisions On our unrevised estimates, B3 is trading at ~8x '25e EV/EBITA. Mechanically, the organic impact on consensus estimates should be within a negative mid single-digit range. A presentation by the company will be hosted at 9.00 CET ( link ). Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, Company data. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2025/10/b3-consulting-group---aims-to-return-to-positive-net-recruitment/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2025/10/b3-consulting-group---aims-to-return-to-positive-net-recruitment/ Thu, 23 Oct 2025 05:45:07 GMT SE0008347660 Analys '25e-'27e adj. EBITA up 12-5% Encouraging efficiency improvements and strategic initiatives Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of ~8x A solid quarter despite sales headwinds The Q3 report was stronger than we had expected on all key line items, as sales and adj. EBIT were 2% and 53%, respectively, above our expectations. The organic growth (-0.4%) was held back by the ongoing change in the distribution model and distribution agreement terminations, as well as from the fire in the Spanish factory. Adj. EBIT benefitted from a favourable product mix and improved overall cost efficiency. Moreover, the fire resulted in an impairment of tangible assets of SEK -44m, which lowered the earnings including NRI's. Adj. EBITA up 12-5% We raise '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 12-5% and leave our sales estimates largely unchanged after the report. We continue to believe that organic growth will be hurt by the ongoing turnaround and a lower production cadence in the production that was impacted by the fire in Spain. However, we assess that market conditions could improve in H2'26. Moreover, we trim our opex base for '26e-'27e on lower admin costs due to the new restructuring programme; however, our initial estimates already included increased efficiencies in the opex base. We also expect the implementation costs to be spread over Q4'25 and Q1'26, but tilted more towards Q4, and as such we include a total of SEK -8m in NRIs and increase admin costs across the two quarters, as we are unsure how much of the expected SEK -15m will be included in opex and/or NRIs. Implied valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~8x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~20% below current peer multiples. We note that peers, in turn, are trading ~25% below their 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2025/10/midsona---a-step-in-the-right-direction/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2025/10/midsona---a-step-in-the-right-direction/ Wed, 22 Oct 2025 15:46:00 GMT SE0000565228 Analys Return to growth in Q3 driven by both M&A and organic recovery Enedo headwinds should be more than offset by Inission We believe R12m EBITA bottomed in Q2, trading 40% below peers Q3 expectations For Q3, we forecast sales of SEK 524m, up 12% y-o-y, of which 5% should be organic growth. The acquisition of Selteka, which was consolidated at the beginning of Q3, should contribute nicely to the total growth, while the strong order intake over the past three quarters (+66% y-o-y) should support improved organic growth. Enedo still faces tough comps in Q3 — these will gradually ease over the coming two quarters — meaning we forecast the Inission segment to be a strong enough growth driver to more than offset this. We estimate an EBITA margin of 6.7% (5.7%), again driven by the Inission segment, while we wait for additional cost savings in Enedo to take effect from Q4. Estimate changes While the headwinds faced by Enedo continue to be a drag on earnings, we forecast sequential improvements from here, and reiterate our belief that Q2 marked the bottom for group organic R12m EBITA, thanks to improving performance in the Inission segment. We make only very minor estimate changes ahead of the report, and now forecast FY sales of SEK 2.15bn alongside an adj. EBITA margin of 5.8%, compared to the company's guidance of SEK 2.2bn and 6.0%. Company valuation Enedo's weakness is currently the main difference between Inission and peers, and has likely been a significant factor behind Inission currently trading 40% below Nordic EMS peers on '26e-'27e P/E. We note, however, that Enedo only contributes ~10% of Inission's value in our valuation, and that sequential operational improvements lie ahead. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2025/10/inission---inission-segment-to-drive-growth-in-h2/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2025/10/inission---inission-segment-to-drive-growth-in-h2/ Wed, 22 Oct 2025 15:45:34 GMT SE0016275069 Analys Q3 EEs 2.7m, down 23% y-o-y, sales SEK 23.5m, down 28% Softening commercial vehicle market drives 19-15% EBIT cuts Increased cyclical headwinds, but underlying growth story intact Q3 expectations Yesterday, SinterCast issued a press release announcing that Q3 serial production amounted to 2.7m EEs, a 23% y-o-y drop. Sales came in at SEK 23.5m, down 28% y-o-y, of which we estimate 6pp to be FX-driven. Roughly half of the 0.8m EE y-o-y decline was due to the known shutdown of a 0.4m production programme in September '24; more importantly, a 33% reduction in commercial vehicle production impacted volumes by 0.57m EEs, although this was partially offset by a 0.15m EE increase in passenger vehicle and off-road production. Due to the negative mix effect of lower series-production revenue, and the company's significant operating leverage, we forecast an EBIT margin of 22.7%, down 17.9pp y-o-y. Estimate changes Given the lower-than-anticipated Q3 volumes and softening production forecasts from commercial vehicle OEMs, we cut '25e-'27e sales by 9-10%, which, given the company's high operating leverage, results in EBIT cuts of 19-15%. Company valuation The weakness that initially mainly affected the passenger vehicle segment of the automotive market has now increasingly spread to the commercial vehicle segment, with volumes in this market segment expected to be down by roughly 10% in '25e and flat in '26e, before recovering by around 10% in '27e. While the increased near-term challenges facing the industry prompt us to make significant estimate cuts for SinterCast, the underlying growth story of increased CGI penetration in the market remains intact, even if currently obscured by cyclical weakness. We adjust our fair value range to SEK 90-110 (100-120). The share is currently trading at a 2026e P/E of 23x, compared to its historical median of 19x. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2025/10/sintercast---q3-pre-announcement-softer-than-expected/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2025/10/sintercast---q3-pre-announcement-softer-than-expected/ Wed, 22 Oct 2025 15:45:05 GMT SE0000950982 Analys