https://cr.abgsc.com/feed/ News and articles from cr.abgsc.com ABG Sundal Collier - Commissioned research (cr.abgsc.com) ABG Sundal Collier - Commissioned research (cr.abgsc.com) research@abgsc.com (cr.abgsc.com) research@abgsc.com (cr.abgsc.com) Q3e: +29% organic growth, EBIT SEK 17m (11m) '27e-'28e adj. EBIT raised by 6-8% on FX EU vote ahead; '27e/'28e EV/EBIT of 6x/4x, ~60-80% below peers Q3 expectations We estimate Q3 sales of SEK 54m, +31% y-o-y (+29% org., +2% FX). We expect growth to slow from the record Q2 (+91% org.) on tougher comps, but to remain solid, driven by CMP (+35% org. in H1), the recovery of the second-largest customer, which cut its offtake last year due to financial constraints, and continued growth among smaller customers such as PPG and Jotun. FX turns into a slight tailwind for the first time in five quarters in Q3 (+2%). We forecast EBIT of SEK 17m (11m), for a 31% (27%) margin. Estimate changes and outlook We raise '26e/'27e/'28e adj. EBIT by 1%/6%/8%, mainly on FX, as sales are predominantly USD-denominated while opex is largely SEK-based. We will listen for an update on the newly acquired antifouling technology for aquaculture net coatings, where management sees commercial sales a few years out. Given the early stage and limited information on its potential, we have not included it in our estimates. With SEK 165m in net cash, the balance sheet remains strong. Waiting for the EU decision The key event is the SCBP vote on the Commission’s proposed non-renewal of medetomidine, which management sees as most likely at the December meeting or by written procedure. The current approval expires on 31 December. In a negative outcome, I-Tech is prepared to appeal, and the direct impact would be limited, as Europe accounts for 2-4% of sales. Meanwhile, higher charter rates and fuel prices underline the value of premium antifouling, and Selektope is still only on ~3,500 of ~110,000 commercial vessels. The company is trading at ‘26e/'27e/'28e EV/EBIT of 10x/6x/4x, i.e. ~60-80% below peers. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2026/10/i-tech---expecting-broad-based-growth/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/i-tech/Equity-research/2026/10/i-tech---expecting-broad-based-growth/ 2026-10-12 19:15:04 SE0011167725 Analys Report out 16 October Q3e sales of SEK 49m (+7% y-o-y), EBIT SEK -2.6m (-3.3m) Two more Recycling customers in commercial production Q3 expectations We estimate Q3 sales of SEK 49m, up 7% y-o-y, but down 18% q-o-q, as Q3 is usually a seasonally-weaker holiday quarter. Growth should again come from Recycling, with the US food-packaging customer at a ~SEK 11m annual run-rate and two new customers entering commercial production over the summer. We expect a gross margin of 48% (46%), in line with recent quarters. On a seasonally lower sales base, we expect EBIT to fall back to SEK -2.6m (-3.3m) after a break-even Q2. Estimate changes We leave total '26e-'28e EBIT roughly unchanged. We continue to forecast positive full-year EBIT from ‘27e. Recycling pipeline building In August, Nexam announced that two additional customers, one in Canada and one in Europe, had moved from industrial evaluation to commercial use over the summer. Further up the funnel, the number of samples shipped to prospective customers rose more than 80% in June-July vs the same period last year, excluding samples distributed via Palmer Holland, with qualified enquiries from Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. Key for Q3 is the volume ramp at these customers and whether management will reiterate its ambition to double Recycling sales in ‘26 vs. '25. The stock is trading at 1.0x/0.9x '26e/‘28e EV/Sales on our estimates. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nexam-chemical/Equity-research/2026/10/nexam-chemical---seasonal-dip-broader-recycling-base/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nexam-chemical/Equity-research/2026/10/nexam-chemical---seasonal-dip-broader-recycling-base/ 2026-10-12 19:00:05 SE0005101003 Analys Q3e: Sales SEK 2,346m and adj. EBITA SEK 177m Estimates trimmed by 4/2% for '26e/'27e 12x/10x '26e/'27e adj. EBITA Q3 expectations We expect the company to deliver sales of SEK 2,346m, up 7% y-o-y (3% organic, 2% FX and 2% M&A). We forecast an adj. EBITA of SEK 177m, +12% y-o-y, for a margin of 7.5%. We are cautiously optimistic on Sweden. While we see tough comps ahead in Q3'26, as Q3'25 marked the start of the recovery in the market and a return to earnings growth after a prolonged downturn, we also see positive data points. The Swedish building material index increased 9.5% in Q2 (its highest since Q1'22) and Swedish manufacturing PMI sat at a solid 58.1 in September. We expect the market in Norway to remain similar to H1, with subdued oil and gas activity (~7% of group sales) as large offshore developments near completion. This should be partly offset by Q3 historically being a seasonally stronger quarter for margins. We remain upbeat on further margin improvement in Finland, driven by a stronger industrial cycle and high defence exposure. Estimates lowered by 4/2% for '26e/'27e We make only minor revisions to our sales estimates but lower our '26e-27e adj. EBITA by 4/2%, mainly due to revised margin assumptions for Sweden following a change of analyst. We reduce Sweden’s '26e adj. EBITA margin to 9.2% from 9.7% and trim Finland’s by 12bps. Meanwhile, favourable FX effects lift our Norwegian earnings estimates by 2-4%. We expect activity in Norway to remain low but stable in H2. Share trading at 12x/10x '26e/'27e adj. EV/EBITA We continue to see the margin recovery story as appealing and are encouraged by management's communication. The share is currently trading at 11.7/9.6x '26e/'27e adj. EV/EBITA. Returning -6% the L3M, it has underperformed OMXSALLS which has returned +1%. The Q3 report is due on Friday 23 October. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2026/10/alligo---tooled-up-for-continued-margin-recovery/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2026/10/alligo---tooled-up-for-continued-margin-recovery/ 2026-10-07 15:46:32 SE0009922305 Analys Q3 report due Tuesday 6 November Order intake to remain positive 13-9x '27e-'28e EV/EBIT Q3 expectations We expect order momentum to remain positive in Q3, albeit at a slower pace than in Q1 and Q2. We expect Cavotec deliver an order intake of EUR 38.1m (+5% y-o-y) for a book-to-bill of 1.01. The R12m book-to-bill should land at 1.18 in Q3 following the strong consecutive order figures in Q1 and Q2. The company has announced three orders in Q3, of which two are attributable to the Q3 order intake. All three came from existing customer relationships. We forecast sales of EUR 37.9m, up 5.9% y-o-y (o/w 3.9% organic and 2.0% FX). Industry should drive most of this growth, given its solid Q2 order intake and significantly shorter backlog lead times vs. P&M. We expect the company to return to an adj. EBIT growth in the quarter, landing at EUR 0.2m (+0.3m y-o-y). This corresponds to an adj. EBIT margin of 0.4%. MoorMaster order raises '27e-'28e EBIT 5-4% We raise our order estimates by 1% following the MoorMaster order for the Indian Port Authority, having already incorporated the shore power order from a global leading shipping company announced on July 15. This leads to 2-3% upgrades on '27e-'28e sales and 5-4% on EBIT. Minor changes to '26e are made following updated FX and slight adjustments to group costs. Outlook and valuation We recognise the potential of the exclusive distribution agreement with EVIAS, announced in September, for its automatic charging technology for port vehicles. This should broaden P&M's product portfolio and strengthen its position in port electrification. On reporting day, we look for more details on the agreement, in addition to the conversion of the record EUR 156m order book (end-Q2) and progress on the cost-savings programme. The share is currently trading at 13-9x '27e EV/EBIT vs. the peer median of 13-11x. The report is due on 6 November. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/10/cavotec---moormaster-order-adds-to-positive-momentum/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/cavotec/Equity-research/2026/10/cavotec---moormaster-order-adds-to-positive-momentum/ 2026-10-07 15:45:28 CH0136071542 Analys NAV per share +7.2% y-o-y Buyback and net cash position support continued 5-7% dividend ~35% NAV discount vs ~22% average; fair value range SEK 100-136 NAV growth & portfolio activity NAV/share and net profit growth during the year were strong. NAV/share rose to SEK 178.77 from SEK 172.32 (+7.2% incl. the SEK 6/common share dividend paid in Mar.), and net profit increased to SEK 88.7m (SEK 14.5m). This was driven by a rise in portfolio revaluations (SEK 108.2m vs SEK 31.2m) incl. gains from exits such as PHM Group and Francks Kylindustri, partly offset by a SEK 49.8m unrealised markdown on the existing portfolio. The same pattern was seen in FY'24/'25 (SEK 131.4m realised gains vs SEK 83.3m unrealised markdowns), meaning two consecutive years of growth driven by closed exits while retained portfolio value keeps declining. Deployment also picked up, with 27 new portfolio companies added (25 prior year). 13 exits were completed (nine prior year). What is driving the portfolio? The year's results point to broad-based portfolio strength after a weaker prior year, though the deployment rate remains somewhat below historical levels despite the increase in new holdings. The ongoing buyback programme (286,530 shares repurchased in FY'25/'26 at an avg price of ~SEK 119, taking treasury holdings to ~3.3% of shares by Aug. 2026) supports NAV/share. The improved net cash position (SEK 27.3m, up from a net debt of SEK -12.2m) also strengthens the case for continuing the 5-7% annual dividend target. NAV discount and outlook The share traded at SEK 116 against the reported NAV of SEK 178.77 at fiscal year-end close, implying a discount of ~35% vs a historical avg of ~22% since Feb. 2020. Applying a discount of 25-45% to the latest NAV (Aug.) implies a fair value range of SEK 100-136. Key catalysts ahead include capital deployment from newer fund vintages, the pace of further exits, and the potential for further buybacks and dividends. These could all in... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name2/Equity-research/2026/10/coeli-private-equity---nav-growth-continues-discount-widens/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name2/Equity-research/2026/10/coeli-private-equity---nav-growth-continues-discount-widens/ 2026-10-07 15:30:04 SE0012012268 Analys Steady growth despite Enterprise caution Earnings trajectory shifts further out Scaling to drive profitability Steady growth despite near-term Enterprise caution We expect a third consecutive profitable quarter from Qliro in Q3, with SEK 2.8m in operating profit. We expect TPV at SEK 6.6bn, up 26% y-o-y, supported by merchant onboarding and SME growth, albeit at a more moderate pace than in H1. We believe Enterprise activity could remain cautious ahead of CCD2 in November, before picking up thereafter. Our estimates imply total income of SEK 120.6m (+22% y-o-y) and costs of SEK 93.7m. While near-term growth is more measured, we see stronger earnings potential in 2027-28e as scaling translates into profitability. Near-term estimates lowered, long-term earnings raised Ahead of Q3, we make modest top-line revisions but reshape our earnings trajectory to reflect more measured near-term growth and stronger profitability further out. For 2026e, total income is lowered by 1.8% and costs by 1.1%, reducing operating profit by 48%. Conversely, we raise 2027e-28e operating profit by 27% and 35%, reflecting stronger operating leverage as the business scales. Our forecasts imply 21% income growth in 2026e and 14-16% in 2027e-28e. Scaling supports long-term earnings growth Despite a more measured near-term growth trajectory, scaling looks set to drive profitability, supported by merchant onboarding, BNPL penetration and loan book growth. We forecast operating profit to increase from SEK 13m in 2026e to SEK 44m in 2027e and SEK 81m in 2028e, alongside a C/I improvement from 78% to 64%. Qliro is trading at 20x and 10x P/E for 2027e and '28e, respectively, and ~0.8x P/BV. The PPRO partnership provides an additional growth channel from 2027. Lastly, Hannes Wadell joins the company as CFO on 3 November, bringing a permanent CFO into the management team ahead of the next phase of scaling and profitability. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qliro/Equity-research/2026/10/qliro---growth-moderates-scaling-continues/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qliro/Equity-research/2026/10/qliro---growth-moderates-scaling-continues/ 2026-10-07 05:00:05 SE0013719077 Analys Guidance downgrade following Brazil ban New financing includes both a new loan and an equity raise Trading at 4x '27e P/E at the subscription price of the equity issue Brazil ban leads to guidance downgrade Following the Brazilian President's decree banning sports betting and online gaming, Gentoo Media downgraded its 2026 guidance. The ban carries immediate effect but has to be approved by Brazil's Congress within 120 days prior to becoming official legislation. This means that there technically is a chance that Brazil's Congress rejects the President's decree. However, it is difficult to quantify that probability. During January-August '26, Brazil contributed to just shy of EUR 4m in revenue. On an annualised basis, that implies nearly EUR 6m in revenue. Unlike its peer Better Collective, Gentoo's earnings contribution from Brazil was lower due to its investments in the country. Moreover, Gentoo's exposure to Brazil was relatively smaller at around 6% of revenue (Better Collective's was 2x that). Gentoo's lowered guidance for 2026 is as follows: revenue of EUR 92m (97-100m), adj. EBITDA 40m (44-47m), and operating cash flow of EUR 30m (32-36m). Our updated estimates exclude Brazil Following the news of the guidance downgrade and new financing arrangement, we have revised our estimates. We cut '26e-'28e revenue by 8% and adj. EBITDA by 11-12%. Even though there is a chance that the President's actions are overturned by Congress, we are unable to assess the probability of that and have therefore incorporated a Brazil ban in both '27 and '28. New financing coming up The new financing consists of a EUR 50m loan (EURIBOR 3m + 7.5% with a 2% EURIBOR floor) and a fully subscribed directed share issue of EUR 50m at a subscription price of SEK 6.16 per share (nearly 60% above the closing price on 30 September). The loan matures in December '29 and is amortised 10m each year, with the remaining EUR 30m due at maturity. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2026/10/gentoo-media---guidance-downgrade-and-new-financing/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2026/10/gentoo-media---guidance-downgrade-and-new-financing/ 2026-10-02 16:15:04 US36467X2062 Analys Q3e EBITA +11% y-o-y to SEK 88m We raise '27e EBITA 2% on Svedbergs savings We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 57-77 We expect EBITA +11% y-o-y in Q3 We expect Q3 to be dictated by 1) tough comps in segment Nordics, driven by an expanded ROT deduction scheme in H2'25. We forecast a 4% organic decline for the segment in Q3'26; 2) The well-communicated logistics-related issues in Roper Rhodes (UK). UK EBITA margins declined by 180bp y-o-y in Q2, of which half related to logistics. We forecast a 200bp decline y-o-y in Q3, expecting some extra costs for e.g. freight; 3) UBC Group's first full quarter as part of Svedbergs Group, where we expect it to add SEK 81m in sales and 15pp to Group growth. All in all, we forecast net sales of SEK 624m, +18% y-o-y (of which 2pp organic). We expect dual logistics costs in the UK and the inclusion of dilutive UBC to weigh on margins for 1pp lower EBITA margins y-o-y. Q3'26e EBITA of SEK 88m is +11% y-o-y. '26e EBITA cut 1%, '27e up 2% We raise '27e/'28e EBITA by 2%/2%, driven primarily by the initiated cost savings programmes in Svedbergs. We do not expect Nordics EBITA margins of 15% until beyond 2028 without a broader improvement in markets, and we take a cautious view despite targeted savings of SEK 25m. We keep our UK org. growth forecasts unchanged, as CPA forecasts for RM&I are unchanged since May (at market growth of -8% for '26e). We expect UK to weigh on y-o-y profitability until YE'26, after which point the new warehouse segment should contribute positively. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 57-77 We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 57-77 on limited estimate revisions. This range corresponds to 10.4x-14x '27e P/E, the upper half of the company's L5Y trading range of 8x-14x NTM. We align with the upper half due to Svedbergs' now-larger size, better market outlook and strong M&A track record. The current 13x/10x P/E '26e/'27e can be compared to a Nordic peer median 11x P/E '27... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/10/svedbergs-group---swedish-savings-boost-27e-ebita-by-2/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/10/svedbergs-group---swedish-savings-boost-27e-ebita-by-2/ 2026-10-02 05:00:05 SE0000407991 Analys Sequential sales decline, but order activity has improved We cut '26e-'28e EBIT by 11-8% on lower sales assumptions 16-13x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT Sequential sales decline We expect Q3 to see a sequential decline in sales, as Ovzon has not been able to fill the gaps from previously expiring contracts. Nevertheless, the terminal backlog remains robust, so we anticipate Q3 terminal sales of SEK 70m (vs. SEK 74m in Q2), as well as SATCOM sales of SEK 158m (vs. SEK 171m in Q2). This indicates a weaker product mix, which will negatively impact the gross margin. Nevertheless, we expect costs to remain well managed, and estimate Q3 EBIT of SEK 43m for a margin of 19%. Furthermore, we expect some normalisation of the NWC in Q3, following the receipt of a milestone payment in Q2. We anticipate Q3 FCF of SEK 23m. Negative estimate revisions Yesterday's order signing is positive , especially as it relates to a US customer, and supports our estimates. Nevertheless, given the high demand for SATCOM in general and Ovzon's strong momentum in 2025, we had expected Ovzon to sign more orders in 2026. It is difficult to gain a full understanding of the situation, but we believe this is due to the fact that 1) Ovzon is a small company bidding for large contracts, and 2) procurement has become more complex as countries increasingly seek to collaborate on SATCOM projects. Q4 is traditionally a strong quarter for order intake, so there could be more announcements before the end of the year. However, we are taking a more cautious view on sales, and therefore cut '26e-'28e EBIT by 11-8%. Ovzon is active in an attractive niche Modern warfare is increasingly fought across domains where satellite connectivity has become mission-critical, driving a structural, multi-year uplift in space investments. Ovzon has a proven track record, which bodes well for the future. The stock is trading at 16-13x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/9/ovzon---lukewarm-q3-on-the-cards/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/9/ovzon---lukewarm-q3-on-the-cards/ 2026-09-29 17:30:05 SE0010948711 Analys New 12m SEK 90m order from a new US gov customer SEK 84m SATCOM service, SEK 6m terminals Key positives: supports estimates, first new US customer on Ovzon-3 A new customer, not a renewal Ovzon has received a SEK 90m (USD 9.1m) order for its integrated SATCOM platform from a new US government customer. The order is for 12m and includes service on Ovzon-3, third-party capacity and mobile terminals. The split between Ovzon-3 and third-party capacity is not disclosed. Service will start immediately. Only SEK 34m (USD 3.4m) will be booked as order intake in Q3'26, with the remaining recognised once the full funding has been formally processed. This structure is common for US federal contracts, and we do not view it as an indication of risk to the order. However, it does mean that Q3 order intake will appear smaller than the headline value. Supportive to estimates Following a quiet period, this announcement is highly welcome, both because it supports our estimates and because it signals a new US customer. Since 2022, Ovzon has seen annual US-related sales drop from ~200m to ~30m, but we now see reasons for this market to recover. The stock is currently trading at 15x '26e EV/EBIT on our latest estimates. Sales, quarterly (SEKm) Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Sales breakdown (SEKm) Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Net sales (SEKm) and EBIT margins Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/9/ovzon---signs-new-us-government-customer/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ovzon/equity-research/2026/9/ovzon---signs-new-us-government-customer/ 2026-09-28 06:30:02 SE0010948711 Analys Q3e: 4% sales growth and a 6% adj. EBITDA margin Seasonally a small quarter We make limited estimate changes, trading at 6x adj. EBITDA '27e A seasonally thin sales quarter Seasonally, Q3 has come in below Q2 in each of the past six years, at 22-24% of full-year sales, and we see no reason for 2026 to break this pattern. Subscription project work is delivered by people, and Swedish holidays compress both delivery capacity and client-side decision-making in July and August. RFP processes typically run over the summer and convert later, and marketing budgets tend to be released as companies approach year-end, both of which push activity into Q4. This is offset by personnel costs being seasonally lowest in Q3 due to the holiday effect. ARR provides some foresight Subscription revenue is relatively steady at ~25% of ARR, which means the SEK 141m ARR base exiting Q2'26 effectively locks in around 70% of Q3 revenue before the quarter starts. Ad hoc has been the historical swing factor, but as Nepa intends to decrease its ad hoc focus, we now expect H2 to be less volatile. We expect Q3 to deliver organic sales growth of 4% to SEK 51m, implying -4% q-o-q (on account of ad hoc). On opex, we assume a broadly flat underlying base versus Q2, with the headquarters relocation and the reduced UK cost base now in the run rate. As such, we estimate adj. EBITDA of SEK 3.2m for a margin of 6.3% (vs. SEK -1m in Q3'25), which lifts LTM adj. EBITDA to SEK 9m from SEK 6m in Q2. Trading at 6.4x EBITDA adj. We make limited estimate revisions, slightly trimming sales by 0.5-1.1% in '26e-'27e and assuming lighter net ARR generation in Q3 than in H1. We also slightly trim our opex base, which partly offsets the negative sales revisions, while adj. EBITDA is trimmed by 2-1%. Keep in mind that Nepa's business model is highly scalable and that the earnings revisions reflect small changes in absolute terms ('26e adj. EBITDA down 0.2m). Nepa is currently trading at 6.4x '27e... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Nepa/Equity-research/2026/9/nepa---likely-a-quiet-quarter-ahead/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Nepa/Equity-research/2026/9/nepa---likely-a-quiet-quarter-ahead/ 2026-09-24 16:45:04 SE0008066302 Analys Q3e: 1% organic growth and 5% EBIT margin The report should answer long-term questions Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 7x Growth should return in South We anticipate organic growth of 1% in Q3'26, implying sales of SEK 948m and EBIT of SEK 49m, for a 5% margin. The organic growth, coupled with a 4% M&A contribution and a 1% FX effect, puts top-line growth at 6%. We expect the Nordics to sustain org. growth at the same pace as in Q2 (0.5%), as we believe the warm summer likely favoured impulse consumption over dry and organic ranges. South Europe should reach 4% organic growth as comps will no longer include the old Spanish factory. We see the GM at 28% (28.7% adj. in Q3'25), roughly half on Risenta mix, which has a lower margin and still includes a transitional supply markup in COGS, and half on packaging and freight inflation into a channel with fixed pricing windows. We look for long-term answers in Q3 report This is the first quarter with Risenta consolidated, and we will look for commentary on how much it will contribute to EBIT, specifically considering insourcing timing, the size of the transitional COGS markup, and how the organisation will be built. We also hope for a decision on the long-term plan for Spain, which since Q1 has been flagged as due soon, and look for an update on Nordic B2B after several quarters of exited contracts. On costs, we will look for how much input inflation the company intends to recover in the coming price negotiations, due to oil prices. Small estimate cuts We cut '26e adj. EBIT by 2%, while '27e-'28e is lifted by FX. Our cuts reflect a softer Nordic category backdrop over the summer, acquired volumes that dilute mix before they contribute to profit, and input cost inflation into a channel that reprices slowly, all in the first quarter of the year against a strong comp (5% adj. EBIT margin). On our revised estimates Midsona is trading at 8x-6.5x '26e-'27e adj. EV/EBITA. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2026/9/midsona---small-steps-forward-on-tougher-comps/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2026/9/midsona---small-steps-forward-on-tougher-comps/ 2026-09-23 16:00:05 SE0000565228 Analys Signs Phase 2 with Svenska kraftnät worth SEK 1.6bn We expect consensus to raise 2027e-2028e EBIT by 5-10% Share has done well, but still trades at 9x EBIT 2027e Largest power line project to date, with limited price risk NYAB announced this morning that it has signed an agreement with Svenska kraftnät to build a new 400 kV power line in northern Sweden between Letsi and Svartbyn. The order value is SEK 1.6bn (EUR 142m). The contract is structured as a partnering agreement (Sv: samverkan ), meaning that NYAB assumes relatively little price risk, as it is largely based on a cost-plus model. Construction will begin immediately, and we expect consensus EBIT estimates for 2027e-2028e to increase by 5-10% as a result of the order. The project will be included in NYAB’s order book in Q3’26, which should lift the order book substantially above the record-high level reported in Q2. Positive for growth, but also strengthens credibility This is NYAB’s second major power line project with Svenska kraftnät, following the Aurora Line, a ~SEK 1.0bn project completed in Q4’25. NYAB began working on Phase 1 (planning) of Letsi–Svartbyn shortly after completing the Aurora Line. Although the company indicated that it also expected to secure the larger Phase 2 execution contract, this had not been confirmed until today. The order therefore not only supports growth and positive estimate revisions but also strengthens management’s credibility, in our view. The order book de-risks strong earnings growth f12m Before this order, we already expected >20% earnings growth f12m. Adding this new order, we could now see ~25-30% growth f12m. The share has done well, but still trades at 9x EBIT on 2027e. Longer term, we believe that NYAB remains well-positioned towards infrastructure niches with strong demand, and its capital-light operating model facilitates a combination of high growth and high cash generation. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2026/9/nyab---a-powerful-addition-to-the-order-book/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2026/9/nyab---a-powerful-addition-to-the-order-book/ 2026-09-23 06:45:04 SE0022242434 Analys Q3e: 13.5% organic sales growth, 8% EBITA margin H2 faces fewer GM headwinds Trading at 9x '27e EV/EBITA Strong GM, but growth investments might sting a bit We expect 13.5% organic growth in Q3e despite facing a much tougher comp than the previous two quarters. Given the H1'26 development, we expect Q3e service sales roughly in line with Q2'26 (SEK 179m), driving the mid-teen growth despite a relatively strong comp here as well. We expect adj. EBIT growth of 7% y-o-y on a relatively flat opex base q-o-q. This implies a margin contraction of 0.6pp y-o-y, mainly on investments in growth. We expect Q3 sales and EBIT of SEK 245m and SEK 20m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y sales growth of 15% and a margin of 8.2%. We expect H2 to drive the full-year margin We expect the Nordics to deliver an improved gross margin, as the onboarding costs for the Norwegian contract should be behind us. The UK and Ireland margin was weighed down in H1'26 due to a large amount of low-margin A2D-related installation projects, which we see no reason to extrapolate into H2e. We expect the segment's GM to come in at 39.5% (10bps y-o-y lift), compared to the 240bps decrease y-o-y in Q2 to 36.9%. Moreover, Q4'25 EBIT was heavily weighed down by timing of accruals between quarters in the UK & Ireland, and we expect a normalisation in 2026. EBITA estimates slightly raised We make limited organic revisions to our sales estimates, but updated FX movements lead us to raise '26e-'27e sales by 1% and 1.5%, respectively. Moreover, we do not make any major changes to our opex estimates in absolute terms, which causes our '26e-'27e EBIT estimates to increase by 2-1%. On our updated estimates, Careium is trading at '26e-'27e multiples of 12x-9x EV/EBITA adj. and 13x-10x P/E, and we highlight '25-'28e sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 9% and 25%, respectively. Careium has historically traded at an average of 8x EBITA and 11x P/E, NTM. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2026/9/careium---not-much-should-rock-the-q3-boat-/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2026/9/careium---not-much-should-rock-the-q3-boat-/ 2026-09-22 17:00:06 SE0017131824 Analys We raise our '26e oil price forecast to USD 93/bbl (prev. 84). Our '27e price forecast is raised to USD 79/bbl (75), and we reiterate our long-term oil price forecast of USD 75/bbl for '28e-'30e. We raise our '26e gas price forecast to USD 18.8/MMBtu (prev. 14.4). We raise our '27e gas price forecast to USD 14.9/MMBtu and reiterate our long-term gas price forecast of USD 9.0/MMBtu for '28e-'30e. We lower our USD/NOK assumption to 9.5 (10.0) from Q4'26e onwards. Please see the table below for a summary of the estimate changes and refer to our Crude Quarterly report for further details. In our 22 September Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions. Also, see below in this report for quarterly and annual company estimates. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/petrolia-noco/Equity-research/2026/9/petrolia-noco---estimate-changes-from-crude-quarterly/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/petrolia-noco/Equity-research/2026/9/petrolia-noco---estimate-changes-from-crude-quarterly/ 2026-09-22 04:30:03 CY0102630916 Analys ABGSC hosted CEO Samuel Alteborg at our SMC seminar Finland and Sweden driving recovery... ...while Norway remains sluggish New CEO, strategy firmly anchored Today, CEO Samuel Alteborg presented at ABGSC's Small & Mid Cap Seminar in Stockholm. He took up the CEO post on 1 June, joining from Cramo, a facility and equipment rental company. Mr Alteborg made a confident impression at the presentation. He was explicit about not intending to start a cultural revolution, with the operational strategy and financial targets left unchanged (organic growth above 5%, adj. EBITA margin above 10%, ND/EBITDA below 3x and a 30-50% payout ratio). He confirmed his commitment both to the core offering (Swedol and Tools, ~80% of sales) and to continued expansion of the non-integrated businesses (~20% of sales), acquired across separate technology areas since the group was formed. Asked about new verticals of interest for the non-integrated segment, he named chemicals. Finland's recovery ahead of plan Finland's margin recovery has run ahead of our expectations, with an adj. EBITA margin of 7.0% in Q2'26, up 2.3pp y-o-y and 4.5pp sequentially. Management described the recovery as broad-based, spanning industrial customers and a returning SME segment. We find it particularly impressive, given that two large industrial customers were phased out during Q1. The strong development in Finland matches what serial acquirer Karnell said at an earlier seminar today, also displaying a strong Q2 in the country. Norway stayed sluggish, with oil and gas held back by lower investment. In Sweden, management continues to describe customers as cautious, with smaller basket sizes. This is mainly attributed to lower volume per visit and is concentrated in the SME cohort that has historically been the core of the segment. Mr Alteborg argued that broadening the customer base should reduce that sensitivity. The quarter was nonetheless the third consecutive quarter of organic growth,... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2026/9/alligo---abgscs-small--mid-cap-seminar/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Alligo/Equity-research/2026/9/alligo---abgscs-small--mid-cap-seminar/ 2026-09-17 15:01:03 SE0009922305 Analys We add the recent equity raise to our numbers... ...and raise long-term copper price while delaying mine restart Feedback from ABGSC Small & Mid Cap Seminar Adding equity raise to estimates Since our latest update, Viscaria completed a directed share issue of ~SEK 1.7bn at SEK 16.60 per share, split in two tranches with the first booked in Q2, and the second pending for Q3. Moreover, the transaction included debt-to-equity conversion of outstanding shareholder loans, which take the total transaction size to ~SEK 2.4bn, for a dilution of 37.5%, which we now add to our numbers. Apart from existing shareholders, the directed share issue brought in InfraVia Capital Partners, a PE firm specialising in real assets. Combined with the pending debt financing package of up to SEK 4.8bn, this should leave Viscaria fully financed. Copper price raised, and mine ramp-up delayed Apart from the revisions above, which are related to the financing side, we make other changes to our operational assumptions. First, given big moves on metals & FX rates, we raise our long-term copper price assumption from USD 9,500/t to 11,000/t, while lowering our USD/SEK rate from 10.34 to 9.77, resulting in a +10% revision to the price in SEK. Second, we delay the mine restart to '28e, but keep our operational estimates at full run-rate production (from '29e) unchanged. At full run-rate, with our new inputs, we model annual revenue and EBITDA for the Viscaria mine of SEK 2.9bn and 2.0bn, respectively. Feedback from Small & Mid Cap Seminar Finally, we highlight that ABGSC hosted CEO Jörgen Olsson at our Small & Mid Cap Seminar on 17 September. Mr. Olsson noted that both construction and finalising of the debt financing are progressing according to plan. Moreover, he pointed to the current macro backdrop, which is highly supportive for Viscaria's economics. At spot prices and FX rates, Viscaria would generate a full run-rate EBITDA of SEK 2.8bn, by our estima... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/viscaria/Equity-research/2026/9/viscaria---new-financing-and-a-raised-copper-price/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/viscaria/Equity-research/2026/9/viscaria---new-financing-and-a-raised-copper-price/ 2026-09-17 15:00:06 SE0021148160 Analys We hosted CEO Johan Larsson Strong market conditions while NYAB continues to gain share >20% earnings growth both R12m and F12m at 10x EBIT Strong outlook intact We hosted NYAB's co-founder and CEO, Johan Larsson at ABGSC's Small & Mid Cap Seminar. As usual, he made a strong impression, emphasising good demand within NYAB's key markets (including power grid, transportation, data centres and defence), and its ability to execute supported by its capital-light and scalable business model. Our conclusion is that the strong momentum in Q2 (orders +18% and organic sales +19% y-o-y) is likely to continue in H2e. Although the company targets growth of >10% per year, Mr. Larsson believes it has the managerial and financial capabilities to grow at more than 20% per year organically, without sacrificing margins. For a construction-oriented company, sustaining this level of growth is exceptional. However, as we have highlighted previously, NYAB's model differs from traditional construction firms as it outsources >90% of the construction work, focusing instead mostly on the design and project management aspects. The project risk is also mitigated by the fact that only ~30% of projects are based on fixed prices, and ~70% partnering, which is more like a cost-plus model. Even so, NYAB can still generate higher project margins on its partnering contracts compared to peers on fixed prices. We think this is evident in NYAB's historical EBIT margins of ~8% avg. in its Civil Engineering business 2015-2025 (compared to traditional construction peers at ~3-4%) while delivering a >30% sales CAGR. To put NYAB's growth into perspective, Mr. Larsson says that the company still has <1% market share. >20% EBIT growth both R12m and F12m On an LTM basis, NYAB has grown EBIT by 21%, organically. With a record order backlog at Q2'26, we currently forecast 24% EBIT growth F12m. However, note that our estimates do not fully account for potential larger pro... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2026/9/nyab---abgscs-small--mid-cap-seminar/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nyab/Equity-research/2026/9/nyab---abgscs-small--mid-cap-seminar/ 2026-09-17 05:30:05 SE0022242434 Analys Saves SEK 25m annually from Q2'27, 6% of our '27e EBITA ...to reach 15% margin in Svedbergs (the brand) We see this as part of a longer trend and not a Q3 signal Svedbergs aims to save SEK 25m per annum from Q2'27... This morning, Svedbergs initiated a cost-savings programme with the aim to simplify the organisation, clarify areas of responsibility and lower the operating cost base, according to the company. The cost-savings programme is aimed to save around SEK 25m per annum with full effect from Q2'27: we expect the savings programme to entail a headcount reduction of ~20 employees (ABGSCe). Our impression is that affected staff is mostly white-collar. We do not expect the company to book any NRI related to this initiative, the company is typically very restrictive on NRIs and there is no mention in the press release. ...to reach a 15% margin in Dalstorp, too Evaluating historical performance for Svedbergs (the brand) specifically, we note that it has not delivered 15% EBITA margins except 2021-2022, which was an unrepresentative demand environment. Realising the full cost savings programme would mean Svedbergs (the brand) is then set up structurally to deliver a ~15% EBITA margin should the markets keep improving, i.e. in line with the Group's financial targets, even without exceptional demand. For context, the brand reported EBITA of SEK 28m in '25, for a 7% margin. SEK 25m in savings correspond to 6% of our forecasted '27e EBITA for the Group. Timing? We see this cost-savings initiative as the next step on a journey that has lasted a number of years, and not as a signal of rapidly deteriorating markets near-term. In 2023, it installed a new wood processing line in Dalstorp, and in 2024 when we visited the factory it had recently installed a new machine for edge banding, i.e. protecting the edges of wood panels from moisture. Both these initiatives have been said to improve capacity in the Dalstorp factory. In April 2025, Svedbergs' MD wa... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/9/svedbergs-group---svedbergs-saves-in-dalstorp/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2026/9/svedbergs-group---svedbergs-saves-in-dalstorp/ 2026-09-15 07:00:05 SE0000407991 Analys AI is increasing demand for hardware-based storage infrastructure NetApp confirmed Dell's report, record order and sales growth Focus on West and Central margins, growth ambitions to be covered on CMD Increasing demand for hardware infrastructure Yesterday, we met with Proact's CEO Magnus Lönn for a lunch in town. AI is increasing enterprise awareness on hardware infrastructure while decreasing apetite for large software investments, benfitting hardware providers like Proact. Data needs to be stored safely and structured, and with high regulation requirements among certain sectors. The US/European polarisation is also increasingly driving some demand from US cloud providers to European-based hardware solutions, that Proact can offer. Operationally, Magnus reiterated the focus to drive margins upwards in West (Netherlands) and Central (Germany) to acceptable levels, before chasing growth in these regions. Magnus was previously Head of Nordics & Baltics, where he increased EBITA margins from 6% in 2022 to 10% in 2025, when he was appointed group CEO. He certainly has found a way to increase margins, and the trend looks promising in the underperforming segments recently. NetApp confirmed Dell's momentum Late last week, Proact's US hardware supplier NetApp reported its Q1'27 report (calendar Q2'26), delivering the strongest order and sales growth for at least five years, confirming Dell's similar strength . Sales grew 30% y-o-y, orders 36% and NetApp lifted its FY guidance. Continued price increases on components drive the strong growth rates, but underlying demand looks to be solid as well. NetApp is expected to show decelerating growth rates ahead, indicating that they may have peaked in Q2, although remain double-digit for the rest of 2026. This is positive for Proact's system sales, as a European partner of NetApp products. We understood from Magnus that order demand remains good, and clients that postponed purchases in H1 in hopes fo... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/9/proact---meeting-with-the-ceo/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/9/proact---meeting-with-the-ceo/ 2026-09-09 15:00:03 SE0015961222 Analys Becoming a company with SEK 5bn in sales... ...and saving SEK 50m in cost synergies Structural demand supporting the market Scale meets local strength The proposed merger between Infrea and Netel creates a Northern European infrastructure services group with ~SEK 5bn of revenue and around 1,200 employees across Infra, Power, Telecom and Paving. We see a strategic fit where the companies have complementary geographic footprints and capabilities, while greater scale should allow the combined group to compete for larger contracts without losing the local presence and relationships that remain important in smaller projects. SEK 50m of synergies provides meaningful earnings leverage The boards target SEK 50m of annual cost synergies within 12–24 months, equivalent to c. 60% of the companies’ combined '25 adj. EBITA. Savings are expected from overlapping group functions, larger operating units, procurement, and removing duplicate listing costs. Revenue synergies are unquantified, but we see opportunities from cross-selling complementary capabilities and taking greater responsibility for larger, whole-of-scope projects. The strategic logic is clear – execution is the key test The market backdrop looks favourable, with substantial investment needs in the Nordic countries across transport infrastructure, power grids and digital networks. However, both companies enter the merger after periods of weak profitability and consolidation, and neither has consistently delivered on their profitability ambitions in recent years. We therefore see restoring underlying margins and delivering targeted synergies as more important near-term value drivers than growth. If execution improves, the combination should emerge with a stronger competitive position and broader avenues for growth. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2026/9/infrea---from-local-roots-to-larger-routes/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/infrea/Equity-research/2026/9/infrea---from-local-roots-to-larger-routes/ 2026-09-08 10:45:04 SE0010600106 Analys Q2 EBITDA NOK 100m vs. ABGSCe NOK 85m on overlift Limited underlying long-term production changes Fair value range NOK 1.5-4.5 Q2 production 1.88 kboe/d, impacted by Brage shutdown Q2'26 production of 1.88 kboe/d came in marginally below ABGSCe of 1.96 kboe/d, with the quarter down 1.46 kboe/d q-o-q on a five-week planned maintenance shutdown at Brage. The production shortfall was offset by strong realised prices of USD 105.8/bbl, driving revenues to NOK 218m vs. ABGSCe NOK 171m. The revenue beat was almost entirely driven by an overlift, and EBITDA landed at NOK 100m vs. ABGSCe NOK 85m. Adjusting for lifting effects, all underlying operational metrics were in line with our estimates. Petrolia Noco repaid NOK 48.3m of debt in Q2 and still grew its cash pile from NOK 98m to NOK 145m, cutting gross debt to NOK 187m. We estimate a cash position of NOK 200m by end-Q3. Minor H2'26e tweaks and Q2 beat prompts '26e EBITDA up 7% The somewhat lower production was partly pre-flagged; we track monthly data from Lime Petroleum (34% interest in Brage), which showed April below expectations and May fully shut in, with maintenance running longer than initially scheduled. Production restarted on 3 June, and the July update from Lime confirms output has returned to more normalised levels. Minor moving parts in our H2'26 modelling net to an unchanged '26e production figure. The stronger Q2 numbers drives our '26e EBITDA up 7%, while our '27e-'28e estimates are broadly untouched. Talisker (H2 2027 start-up target) provides the next production step-up, though we await more details before including it in our estimates. Our oil price deck is unchanged; we reiterate USD 75/bbl from '27e. Fair value range of NOK 1.5-4.5/sh Assuming a long-term Brent price of USD 50-85/bbl, we estimate a NAV of NOK 1.5-4.5/sh for Petrolia. Using a 13% WACC, the current share price implies a discounted oil price of USD 60/bbl on ABGSC estimates. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/petrolia-noco/Equity-research/2026/9/petrolia-noco---brage-shutdown-masked-by-price-and-liftings/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/petrolia-noco/Equity-research/2026/9/petrolia-noco---brage-shutdown-masked-by-price-and-liftings/ 2026-09-06 17:15:02 CY0102630916 Analys Helps brands to market efficiently through insights Underlying ARR +8% y-o-y in 2025 carries into 2026e We set a fair value range of SEK 17-30 Improving marketing efficiency for consumer companies Nepa is a marketing intelligence company combining survey data, sales data, and marketing investment analysis to help global brands optimise short- and long-term growth. Its product suite is based around three products: MMM, which helps brands to optimise their marketing channel mix; its most popular product Brand Tracking, which measures brand strength; and Campaign Pulse, a live feedback tool for campaigns. In 2025, 61% of net sales came from subscriptions, with the rest from ad hoc services. It has ~115 subscribing customers, including several well-known brands, with an ARPU of SEK 1.1m. With a 20-year history of tracking brands, Nepa has amassed a large proprietary dataset, which increases the value and switching costs for its customers in addition to limiting AI disruption risk. Turning a corner to become more scalable Nepa made significant changes in 2025 to become more scalable, including putting greater focus on the subscription part of its offering. We expect its strong underlying ARR growth (+8% in 2025 vs -17% reported) to carry into our forecast period, driven by improved customer outreach. Combined with leverage on the now-reduced opex base, this could lift EBITDA to SEK 6m in 2026e and SEK 15m in 2027e, vs SEK -5m in 2025. Seeing no capex needs, we expect cash flow to improve similarly. We set a fair value range of SEK 17-30 Nepa is currently trading at 20x/7x our '26e/'27e EV/EBITDA. Our fair value range of SEK 17-30 per share is derived by applying the average EV/EBITDA of its closest peers (6.6x) on '27e EBITDA for the lower figure, while the higher end is based on a DCF. Our range corresponds to 7x-14x '27e EV/EBITDA, a wide range that reflects our view of 2027e EBITDA as not yet representative of the company’s normalised ear... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Nepa/Equity-research/2026/9/nepa---marketing-measurement-on-a-recurring-base/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Nepa/Equity-research/2026/9/nepa---marketing-measurement-on-a-recurring-base/ 2026-09-04 04:45:07 SE0008066302 Analys Today ABG Sundal Collier sponsored research initiates coverage of Nepa. Read the full report here ! NEPA - Marketing measurement on a recurring base Nepa AB is a marketing intelligence company combining survey data, sales data, and marketing investment analysis to help global brands optimise their short- and long-term growth. Its core offerings span brand tracking, campaign evaluation, and continuous media mix modelling, delivered via proprietary dashboards, with operations spanning the Nordics, UK, US, and India. https://cr.abgsc.com/artiklar/2026/09/new-company-at-abgsc-nepa/ https://cr.abgsc.com/artiklar/2026/09/new-company-at-abgsc-nepa/ 2026-09-04 04:30:00 Article Focus on the Power segment Sales held up, earnings was weak Divestment of Construction expected to close in Q3 Power improves, Construction masks underlying progress Qben infra reported solid sales but a weaker cost base weighed on earnings. Sales were SEK 344m and EBITA SEK -24m, including ~SEK 30m of IAC. The largest was a SEK 14m write-down of unfinished Team Bygg projects, while acquisition and integration costs related to B45 also weighed on earnings. Adjusted EBITA was SEK 6m. Power increased sales by 6% to SEK 202m and returned to positive EBITA of SEK 5m, corresponding to a 2.6% margin. While profitability was softer than we would have liked, the order book now exceeds NOK 1bn. Inspekt increased sales by 39% to SEK 63m and narrowed its EBITA loss to SEK 2m from SEK 6m in Q1'26. Construction remained the main drag, with sales of SEK 81m and EBITA of SEK -27m. Construction exit sharpens the portfolio but we cut earnings Qben has made two important portfolio decisions: it cancelled the planned Inspekt divestment and subsequently signed an LOI to divest Construction for ~NOK 50m, with closing expected in Q3. Following Q2, we leave our sales estimates broadly unchanged but make sizeable cuts to group earnings. Qben expanded rapidly last year and now needs more time than we previously expected to adjust its cost base. We therefore lower our earnings estimates across all segments. Execution and liquidity now take centre stage Following the disposals of Rail and Kvalitetsbygg and the planned Construction exit, Qben is increasingly focused on Power, complemented by Inspekt approaching breakeven. Power's >NOK 1bn order book supports revenue visibility, while margins and liquidity remain key watch points. Management has extended the Songa owner loan to January 2027 and raised ~SEK 74m in convertibles. Power margins, working-capital control and completion of the Construction sale are the main near-term milestones. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qben-infra/Equity-research/2026/9/qben-infra---needs-more-time-to-convert-growth-to-earnings/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qben-infra/Equity-research/2026/9/qben-infra---needs-more-time-to-convert-growth-to-earnings/ 2026-09-02 16:00:05 SE0023114012 Analys We cut '26e EBIT by 15% and '27e by 32% Long-term potential still intact, but likely to take more time EV/EBIT drops from 12.0x in '26e to 5.7x in '28e Lower volumes and slow retail roll-out... Xplora delivered a disappointing Q2 report, with revenues down 9% y-o-y and a flat adj. EBITDA of NOK 61m, which led to a 30% share price drop. There were two main disappointments: first, senior device volumes declined 17% y-o-y on tough comps from last year's 2G shutdown boost. This was bound to normalise at some point, but the share reaction shows the market had extrapolated the strong 2025 performance. Second, the Doro Connect rollout has taken longer than the market expected. At the November '25 CMD, Xplora guided for a 900-store rollout from January '26. The result so far is one store pilot complete, with a rollout to ~135 Norwegian Power stores starting in September. The company had clearly underestimated the necessary preparations, including building a new POS system for SIM activation. ...lead us to cut estimates materially In our view, the long-term potential remains, but with a delayed retail roll-out the ramp-up in conversion rate will be slower than initially anticipated. We do a complete reset, cutting '26e, '27e and '28e EBIT by 15%, 32% and 34%, respectively. We still expect a 12% senior conversion rate long term, but we do not expect this to be reached until '29e, rising gradually from ~1% at YE'26e to 3% in '27e and 7% in '28e. We expect the first milestone of 10k senior subscriptions in Q1'27, and forecast 126k senior subscriptions at YE'28e. Combined with NOK 50m in cost synergies we forecast EBIT to increase by ~80% from NOK 144m in '26e to NOK 263m in '28e. For '27e we forecast an EBIT of NOK 187m vs. FactSet consensus of NOK 170m. But long-term potential still exciting Xplora is now trading at 12.0x '26e EV/EBIT, but when senior subscriptions start to have a meaningful impact in '28e this drops to 5.7x. Our DCF points to NOK 39-10... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/9/xplora-technologies---a-setback-but-long-term-potential-intact/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2026/9/xplora-technologies---a-setback-but-long-term-potential-intact/ 2026-09-02 11:00:04 NO0010895782 Analys Dell Storage sales +26% y-o-y driven by data center modernisation Decent correlation to Proact System sales (partner to Dell), positive for Q3-Q4e Delivery times the uncertain factor, but demand continues to surprise positively Dell Q2'27 with strong growth rates across the board Dell reported its Q2'27 numbers yesterday after market close in the US, with sales +58% y-o-y and +5% vs cons, while EPS beat cons by 43%. AI-optimized servers, networking, storage and PC segments (both commercial and consumer) all with strong growth rates. Guides for Q3 sales +80% y-o-y and +18% vs cons, accelerating growth vs Q2 in all segments. Dell commented on the conf call for example: " AI is an important catalyst, but the opportunity extends well beyond AI optimised infrastructure. AI requires modern, disaggregated architectures that keep data accessible and in motion across compute, storage, and networking. It is also accelerating investment across traditional IT environments as customers seek greater performance, efficiency and resiliency ." Share +10% in after-market, and a positive read-across to most Nordic IT hardware peers. Storage revenues accelerating - positive read-across to Proact For Proact, there is a positive read-across from the 26% growth in storage revenues (in the Infrastructure Solutions Group segment), up from 8% in Q1 and clearly above cons 8%. Likely positive price development (driven by memory) and pre-buying from customers behind the strong growth figure. Correlates relatively well with Proact system sales, as Proact is re-selling both Dell EMC and NetApp storage hardware. Proact has said that it experiences longer delivery times, but it looks like Dell is good at getting products out to partners, supporting continued strong growth for Proact in Q3-Q4e. Strong growth attracts new competition and increased price awareness among customers, so gross margin is likely not expanding although sales figures should be supported. We view Dell's s... https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/9/proact---dell-q2-storage-sales-12-vs-cons/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/proact/Equity-research/2026/9/proact---dell-q2-storage-sales-12-vs-cons/ 2026-09-02 07:45:04 SE0015961222 Analys Sports margin flat y-o-y as FIFA World Cup... ...did not aid the operations as much as we had expected Trading 30-35% below peers at 3.8x '26e EV/EBITDA World Cup did not aid Q2 Q2 was a bit softer than we had anticipated on both revenue and adj. EBITDA, as these were roughly 10% below our estimates. As such, the company also cut its revenue, adj. EBITDA and cash flow guidance. The sports margin was flat y-o-y, and Gentoo's customers were relatively active in terms of offering incentives and bonuses to players. While this is likely to benefit turnover in Q3, it puts some risk on the sports margin for the quarter. That said, we continue to expect a return to growth in H2, but it is likely that growth will be held back by the ongoing deleveraging work. Estimate revisions We cut '26e-'28e revenue and adj. EBITDA by 3% and 5%, respectively. This means that our '26e revenue of EUR 100m is in line with the upper end of the updated guidance range, while our '26e adj. EBITDA is just below the mid-point of the guidance. Our new estimates reflect a somewhat more cautious growth outlook, as the deleveraging focus will likely shift the focus from growth to cash flow even more. That said, the comps are becoming easier, and we believe that Gentoo could return to growth if the underlying iGaming market turns more favourable. Trading at 3.8x '26e EV/EBITDA Gentoo is trading at 3.8x '26e EV/EBITDA, below Better Collective (7.5x) but in line with Gambling.com (3.8x). This means that Gentoo is trading 30-35% below the average of Better Collective and Gambling.com. Moreover, we highlight that Gentoo is trading at a '26e lease-adj. FCF yield excl. M&A of roughly 25%, as it should be noted that the company is largely focused on deleveraging. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2026/8/gentoo-media---deleveraging-focus-in-h226/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2026/8/gentoo-media---deleveraging-focus-in-h226/ 2026-08-28 17:00:07 US36467X2062 Analys H1 above expectations, driven by strong margins and cost control Soft autumn intake guidance leads to cuts in '26e-'28e estimates Fair value range of NOK 14-20 H1'26 strong Group revenue was NOK 277m, 5% above our estimate of NOK 265m. Adj. EBITA was NOK 56m (for a 20.1% margin), above our estimate of NOK 46m. The margin beat was mainly driven by Sonans, which delivered lower-than-expected opex, and by ONH, which grew by ~15%, supported by new online programmes and a higher share of recurring revenues. This implies AY'25/26 revenues of NOK 549m, +16% y-o-y, and adj. EBITA of NOK 109m (19.8% margin). Estimate cuts based on soft autumn intake For the 2026/27 intake, Sonans is guided to end the academic year 10-15% behind the prior year, compared to our estimate of +5%. Edrupt (EnkelEksamen) is consolidated from February 2026, and remains on track for continued double-digit growth. ONH is expected to be broadly flat, with growth in recurring revenue from continuing students offsetting softer new intake. As a result, we cut our '27e-'28e revenue estimates by 12-14% and adj. EBITA by 17-21%. The lower opex in Q2 shows solid cost control, and together with margin accretion from Bjørknes and synergies, partly mitigates the margin decline from lower volume. The company now states there is an indication of impairment and that it will update its goodwill impairment assessment for Sonans after the enrolment period is closed. A trading update covering the final autumn intake is likely to be issued by Lumi in six to eight weeks. Fair value range of NOK 14-20 A peer valuation on '26e-'28e multiples points to NOK 14-20/sh. Lumi is trading at '27e/'28e EV/EBIT of ~12x/10.8x and a P/E of ~19x/17.9x. Given Lumi's strong position in the Norwegian market, we believe that a premium could be justified, with an implied value range of 14–20, equating to an EV/EBIT of 9.4–12.5. https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/lumi-gruppen/Equity-research/2026/8/lumi-gruppen---margins-strong-but-softer-intake-weighs/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/lumi-gruppen/Equity-research/2026/8/lumi-gruppen---margins-strong-but-softer-intake-weighs/ 2026-08-27 20:00:07 NO0010927288 Analys H1 above driven by strong margins and cost control... ... but AY 26/27 outlook looks soft Cons to lower revenue estimates, EBITA offset by cost actions Revenues +5%, adj. EBITA well above estimate Group revenues was NOK 277m, 5% above our estimate NOK 265m. Adj EBITA was NOK 56m (20.1% margin), above our estimate of NOK 46m. The margin beat is mainly driven by Sonans, which delivered lower opex than expected, and by ONH, which grew ~15%, supported by new online programmes and a higher share of recurring revenues. EnkelEksamen (Edrupt), consolidated from February, added NOK 18.5m revenue and NOK 4.2m adj. EBITA (22.6% margin) in the period, and is on track for continued double-digit growth in 2026/27 Sonans fall intake guided down 10-15% For the 2026/27 intake, Sonans is guided to end the academic year 10-15% behind the prior year (we had +5%). ONH is expected to be broadly flat, as growth in recurring revenue from continuing students offsets a softer new intake. The company has implemented cost measures aimed at protecting profitability, alongside ongoing growth initiatives including continued programme portfolio development, pursuit of institutional accreditation for ONH, acceleration of the Bjørknes integration, and continued double-digit growth expected at EnkelEksamen. Lumi will issue a trading update covering the final fall intake later, likely in 6-8 weeks. Cons down on softer guidance, but cost measures help Post-period, Sonans sales for 2026/27 have developed materially below expectations. The company now states this is an indication of impairment and will update its goodwill impairment assessment for the Sonans after the enrolment period is closed. Revenue estimates are expected to be revised down to reflect the new softer guidance, but EBITA estimates partly offset by solid cost control. pagebreak Lumi Gruppen: Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/lumi-gruppen/Equity-research/2026/8/lumi-gruppen---delivering-on-h1-h2-looks-more-challenging/ https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/lumi-gruppen/Equity-research/2026/8/lumi-gruppen---delivering-on-h1-h2-looks-more-challenging/ 2026-08-27 07:00:05 NO0010927288 Analys