ABG Sundal Collier - Ferronordic

Ferronordic

Leading dealerships of construction equipment with strong aftermarket offerings

Description
Risk

Financials

Financial snapshots
Income statement
CF and BS
Valuation and Ratios

SEKm	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023e	2024e	2025e
Sales	2335	1469	1658	2567	3241	3747	4635	6212	6162	3507	2653	N/A
Sales growth (%)	N/A	-37.1	12.9	54.8	26.3	15.6	23.7	34	-0.8	-43.1	-24.4	-100
EBITDA	172	128	135	214	322	494	504	699	1061	314	213	N/A
EBITDA margin (%)	7.4	8.7	8.2	8.3	9.9	13.2	10.9	11.2	17.2	9	8	N/A
EBIT adj.	69	61	123	187	274	365	325	507	547	84	63	0
EBIT adj. margin (%)	3	4.2	7.4	7.3	8.4	9.7	7	8.2	8.9	2.4	2.4	N/A
Pretax profit	26	37	107	193	267	318	276	451	631	49	33	0
EPS	-3.1	-2.12	3.03	8.06	13.22	17.26	15.25	23.33	34.45	2.68	1.77	N/A
EPS growth (%)	N/A	-31.6	-242.8	165.9	63.9	30.6	-11.6	53	47.6	-92.2	-33.7	-100
EPS adj.	-0.71	-0.15	5.22	8.06	13.22	17.64	15.09	24.56	22.33	2.68	1.77	N/A
DPS	5	5.25	5.75	2.77	7.5	4.25	7.5	0	0	0	0	N/A
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.8	5	4.1	2.2	2.3	3.3	2	1.8	1.7	4	5.1	N/A
EV/EBIT adj. (x)	12.1	10.5	4.5	2.5	2.7	4.5	3.2	2.5	3.3	14.8	17.3	N/A
P/E (x)	-23.3	-34	23.8	9	5.5	4.2	4.7	3.1	2.1	27	40.7	N/A
P/E adj. (x)	-101.5	-481.8	13.9	9	5.5	4.1	4.8	2.9	3.2	27	40.7	N/A
EV/sales (x)	0.36	0.44	0.33	0.18	0.23	0.44	0.22	0.2	0.29	0.36	0.41	N/A
FCF yield (%)	-8.5	33.4	18.8	18.6	12	-48.4	61.5	8.3	-27.5	60.9	21.5	0
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%)	-8.5	33.4	18.8	18.6	12	-51.8	57.7	0.6	-34.6	54.7	15.8	0
Dividend yield (%)	6.9	7.3	8	3.8	10.4	5.9	10.4	0	0	0	0	0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x)	0.6	-0.6	-1.3	-1.5	-0.9	1.2	0	0.3	0.7	0.6	0.2	N/A
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x)	0.4	0.7	1.3	1.6	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.7	0	0.9	N/A

SEKm	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023e	2024e	2025e
Sales	2335	1469	1658	2567	3241	3747	4635	6212	6162	3507	2653	N/A
COGS	-1936	-1136	-1292	-2079	-2627	-2972	-3837	-5101	-4864	-2867	-2222	N/A
Gross profit	398	333	366	488	614	775	797	1111	1298	641	431	0
Other operating items	-226	-205	-231	-274	-293	-281	-293	-412	-236	-326	-218	0
EBITDA	172	128	135	214	322	494	504	699	1061	314	213	N/A
Depreciation and amortisation	-70	-42	-21	-26	-48	-136	-176	-216	-292	-230	-150	0
of which leasing depreciation	0	0	0	0	0	-28	-40	-42	-42	-44	-44	N/A
EBITA	102	86	114	187	274	358	328	483	769	84	63	N/A
EO Items	0	0	-18	0	0	-7	3	-24	222	0	0	N/A
Impairment and PPA amortisation	-33	-25	-10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EBIT	69	61	104	187	274	358	328	483	769	84	63	N/A
Net financial items	-43	-24	3	6	-7	-39	-53	-32	-138	-35	-30	N/A
Pretax profit	26	37	107	193	267	318	276	451	631	49	33	0
Tax	-7	-8	-24	-42	-58	-68	-54	-112	-131	-10	-7	N/A
Net profit	19	29	84	151	209	251	222	339	501	39	26	0
Minority interest	-50	-50	-53	-65	-17	0	0	0	0	0	0	N/A
Net profit discontinued	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	N/A
Net profit to shareholders	-31	-21	30	87	192	251	222	339	501	39	26	0
EPS	-3.1	-2.12	3.03	8.06	13.22	17.26	15.25	23.33	34.45	2.68	1.77	N/A
EPS adj.	-0.71	-0.15	5.22	8.06	13.22	17.64	15.09	24.56	22.33	2.68	1.77	N/A
Total extraordinary items after tax	0	0	-14	0	0	-6	2	-18	176	0	0	0
Leasing payments	0	0	0	0	0	-28	-40	-42	-42	-44	-44	N/A
Tax rate (%)	27.6	22.2	22.1	21.6	21.7	21.2	19.6	24.9	20.7	21.2	21.2	N/A
Gross margin (%)	17.1	22.7	22.1	19	19	20.7	17.2	17.9	21.1	18.3	16.2	N/A
EBITDA margin (%)	7.4	8.7	8.2	8.3	9.9	13.2	10.9	11.2	17.2	9	8	N/A
EBITA margin (%)	4.4	5.9	6.9	7.3	8.4	9.5	7.1	7.8	12.5	2.4	2.4	N/A
EBIT margin (%)	3	4.2	6.3	7.3	8.4	9.5	7.1	7.8	12.5	2.4	2.4	N/A
Pre-tax margin (%)	1.1	2.5	6.5	7.5	8.2	8.5	5.9	7.3	10.2	1.4	1.2	N/A
Net margin (%)	0.8	2	5	5.9	6.5	6.7	4.8	5.5	8.1	1.1	1	N/A
Growth Rates y-o-y	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Sales growth (%)	N/A	-37.1	12.9	54.8	26.3	15.6	23.7	34	-0.8	-43.1	-24.4	-100
EBITDA growth (%)	N/A	-25.3	5.5	58	50.4	53.6	2	38.6	51.9	-70.4	-32.3	-100
EBITA growth (%)	N/A	-15.2	32	64.2	46.1	30.7	-8.2	47.2	59.3	-89	-25.6	-100
EBIT growth (%)	N/A	-11.5	70.8	79.7	46.1	30.7	-8.2	47.2	59.3	-89	-25.6	-100
Net profit growth (%)	N/A	51.6	190.8	80.9	38.2	19.9	-11.6	53	47.6	-92.2	-33.7	-100
EPS growth (%)	N/A	-31.6	-242.8	165.9	63.9	30.6	-11.6	53	47.6	-92.2	-33.7	-100
Profitability	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
ROE (%)	-16.7	-6.1	7.9	16.4	30.3	32.4	26.1	35.6	37	2.4	1.6	0
ROE adj. (%)	1.1	1.2	14.2	16.4	30.3	33.2	25.8	37.4	24	2.4	1.6	0
ROCE (%)	18.3	9.9	24.7	35.9	39.5	27.3	19	27.6	26.6	2.7	2	0
ROCE adj. (%)	28.3	14.6	30.3	33	39.5	27.8	18.9	29	18	2.7	2	0
ROIC (%)	36.1	20.5	49.9	79.9	101.8	47	34.4	57.5	50.4	4.8	4.3	N/A
ROIC adj. (%)	36.1	20.5	58.7	79.9	101.8	47.9	34.1	60.3	35.9	4.8	4.3	N/A
Adj. earnings numbers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
EBITDA adj.	172	128	154	214	322	501	501	722	839	314	213	0
EBITDA adj. margin (%)	7.4	8.7	9.3	8.3	9.9	13.4	10.8	11.6	13.6	9	8	N/A
EBITDA lease adj.	172	128	154	214	322	473	461	681	797	270	169	N/A
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%)	7.4	8.7	9.3	8.3	9.9	12.6	9.9	11	12.9	7.7	6.4	N/A
EBITA adj.	102	86	132	187	274	365	325	507	547	84	63	0
EBITA adj. margin (%)	4.4	5.9	8	7.3	8.4	9.7	7	8.2	8.9	2.4	2.4	N/A
EBIT adj.	69	61	123	187	274	365	325	507	547	84	63	0
EBIT adj. margin (%)	3	4.2	7.4	7.3	8.4	9.7	7	8.2	8.9	2.4	2.4	N/A
Pretax profit Adj.	59	62	136	193	267	325	273	475	409	49	33	0
Net profit Adj.	52	54	108	151	209	256	219	357	325	39	26	0
Net profit to shareholders adj.	2	4	54	87	192	256	219	357	325	39	26	0
Net adj. margin (%)	2.2	3.7	6.5	5.9	6.5	6.8	4.7	5.7	5.3	1.1	1	N/A

SEKm	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023e	2024e	2025e
EBITDA	172	128	135	214	322	494	504	699	1061	314	213	N/A
Goodwill	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	60	69	69	69	N/A
Net financial items	-43	-24	3	6	-7	-39	-53	-32	-138	-35	-30	N/A
Other intangible assets	43	15	2	6	6	9	8	21	15	11	9	0
Paid tax	-7	-8	-24	-42	-58	-68	-54	-112	-131	-10	-7	N/A
Tangible fixed assets	225	83	116	136	263	609	416	784	898	790	741	N/A
Non-cash items	29	16	9	-10	10	-20	-21	-74	0	0	0	N/A
Right-of-use asset	0	0	0	0	0	91	91	222	255	276	292	N/A
Cash flow before change in WC	151	112	123	168	267	367	377	481	793	269	176	0
Total other fixed assets	36	45	42	42	41	51	65	105	283	283	283	0
Change in working capital	-176	122	18	-20	-106	-698	316	-24	-740	442	103	0
Fixed assets	303	143	160	184	310	763	579	1192	1521	1428	1394	0
Operating cash flow	-25	234	141	148	161	-330	693	457	52	711	279	N/A
Inventories	425	327	467	633	741	1290	1014	1432	1294	701	504	N/A
Capex tangible fixed assets	-34	-5	-16	-16	-42	-160	-57	-239	-356	-70	-53	N/A
Receivables	267	162	206	246	320	405	431	581	1107	630	509	N/A
Capex intangible fixed assets	-5	-2	-3	-5	-2	-4	-2	0	-3	-3	-2	N/A
Other current assets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	N/A
Acquisitions and Disposals	3	15	14	18	10	-14	12	-130	17	2	2	0
Cash and liquid assets	177	175	199	352	357	519	604	768	740	1315	1481	N/A
Free cash flow	-61	242	136	144	126	-509	646	87	-289	640	226	0
Total assets	1173	808	1033	1414	1727	2978	2628	3973	4661	4075	3888	0
Dividend paid	-50	-50	-53	-58	-30	-109	-62	-109	0	0	0	N/A
Shareholders equity	372	322	442	611	656	890	806	1101	1602	1641	1666	0
Share issues and buybacks	0	0	0	120	-80	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Minority	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	N/A
Leasing liability amortisation	0	0	0	0	0	-35	-40	-81	-75	-65	-60	N/A
Total equity	372	322	442	611	656	890	806	1101	1602	1641	1666	0
Other non-cash items	-4	5	8	-69	-28	-253	77	-139	-205	-2	-2	58
Long-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	205	351	490	328	332	336	N/A
Pension debt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	N/A
Convertible debt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	N/A
Leasing liability	40	8	26	40	54	268	148	159	189	189	189	0
Total other long-term liabilities	7	0	0	1	3	14	6	29	29	27	25	0
Short-term debt	246	86	0	0	0	639	84	317	989	989	989	N/A
Accounts payable	492	384	547	737	982	917	1188	1809	1399	772	557	N/A
Other current liabilities	17	8	17	25	32	44	44	67	125	125	125	0
Total liabilities and equity	1173	808	1033	1414	1727	2978	2628	3973	4661	4075	3888	0
Net IB debt	109	-81	-173	-312	-303	593	-20	198	767	195	33	0
Net IB debt excl. pension debt	109	-81	-173	-312	-303	593	-20	198	767	195	33	0
Net IB debt excl. leasing	69	-90	-199	-352	-357	325	-168	39	578	6	-156	0
Capital employed	658	416	468	651	710	2003	1390	2067	3108	3151	3181	0
Capital invested	487	240	270	300	354	1490	791	1307	2375	1843	1707	0
Working capital	184	97	110	117	47	734	213	137	877	435	331	0
EV breakdown	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Market cap. diluted (m)	723	723	723	776	1051	1051	1051	1051	1051	1051	1051	0
Net IB debt adj.	109	-81	-173	-312	-303	593	-20	198	767	195	33	N/A
Market value of minority	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	N/A
Reversal of shares and participations	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
EV	832	642	550	464	748	1644	1031	1249	1817	1246	1084	0
Total assets turnover (%)	398	148.3	180.2	209.8	206.3	159.3	165.4	188.2	142.7	80.3	66.6	0
Working capital/sales (%)	3.9	9.6	6.2	4.4	2.5	10.4	10.2	2.8	8.2	18.7	14.4	N/A
Financial risk and debt service	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Net debt/equity (%)	29.4	-25.3	-39.1	-51	-46.2	66.6	-2.5	18	47.9	11.9	2	N/A
Net debt / market cap (%)	15.1	-11.3	-23.9	-40.2	-28.8	56.4	-1.9	18.8	73	18.6	3.2	N/A
Equity ratio (%)	31.7	39.9	42.8	43.2	38	29.9	30.7	27.7	34.4	40.3	42.9	N/A
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%)	29.4	-25.3	-39.1	-51	-46.2	66.6	-2.5	18	47.9	11.9	2	N/A
Current ratio	1.15	1.39	1.55	1.62	1.4	1.38	1.56	1.27	1.25	1.4	1.49	N/A
EBITDA/net interest	5.1	7.9	78	26.6	180.2	9.6	10.7	26.6	19	9	7.1	N/A
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x)	0.6	-0.6	-1.3	-1.5	-0.9	1.2	0	0.3	0.7	0.6	0.2	N/A
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x)	0.4	-0.7	-1.3	-1.6	-1.1	0.7	-0.4	0.1	0.7	0	-0.9	N/A
Interest coverage	3	5.3	65.7	23.3	153.4	6.9	6.9	18.4	13.8	2.4	2.1	N/A

SEKm	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023e	2024e	2025e
Shares outstanding adj.	10	10	10	11	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	N/A
Diluted shares adj.	10	10	10	11	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	0
EPS	-3.1	-2.12	3.03	8.06	13.22	17.26	15.25	23.33	34.45	2.68	1.77	N/A
Dividend per share	5	5.25	5.75	2.77	7.5	4.25	7.5	0	0	0	0	N/A
EPS adj.	-0.71	-0.15	5.22	8.06	13.22	17.64	15.09	24.56	22.33	2.68	1.77	N/A
BVPS	37.15	32.21	44.24	56.94	45.14	61.27	55.49	75.78	110.22	112.9	114.67	N/A
BVPS adj.	32.9	30.74	44.03	56.43	44.71	60.46	54.92	70.2	104.42	107.38	109.31	N/A
Net IB debt/share	10.91	-8.14	-17.28	-29.06	-20.84	40.81	-1.38	13.62	52.76	13.45	2.3	N/A
Share price	72.3	72.3	72.3	72.3	72.3	72.3	72.3	72.3	72.3	72.3	72.3	72.3
Market cap. (m)	723	723	723	776	1051	1051	1051	1051	1051	1051	1051	0
Valuation	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
P/E (x)	-23.3	-34	23.8	9	5.5	4.2	4.7	3.1	2.1	27	40.7	N/A
EV/sales (x)	0.36	0.44	0.33	0.18	0.23	0.44	0.22	0.2	0.29	0.36	0.41	N/A
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.8	5	4.1	2.2	2.3	3.3	2	1.8	1.7	4	5.1	N/A
EV/EBITA (x)	8.2	7.4	4.8	2.5	2.7	4.6	3.1	2.6	2.4	14.8	17.3	N/A
EV/EBIT (x)	12.1	10.5	5.3	2.5	2.7	4.6	3.1	2.6	2.4	14.8	17.3	N/A
Dividend yield (%)	6.9	7.3	8	3.8	10.4	5.9	10.4	0	0	0	0	0
FCF yield (%)	-8.5	33.4	18.8	18.6	12	-48.4	61.5	8.3	-27.5	60.9	21.5	0
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%)	-8.5	33.4	18.8	18.6	12	-51.8	57.7	0.6	-34.6	54.7	15.8	0
P/BVPS (x)	1.95	2.24	1.63	1.27	1.6	1.18	1.3	0.95	0.66	0.64	0.63	N/A
P/BVPS adj. (x)	2.2	2.35	1.64	1.28	1.62	1.2	1.32	1.03	0.69	0.67	0.66	72.3
P/E adj. (x)	-101.5	-481.8	13.9	9	5.5	4.1	4.8	2.9	3.2	27	40.7	N/A
EV/EBITDA adj. (x)	4.8	5	3.6	2.2	2.3	3.3	2.1	1.7	2.2	4	5.1	N/A
EV/EBITA adj. (x)	8.2	7.4	4.2	2.5	2.7	4.5	3.2	2.5	3.3	14.8	17.3	N/A
EV/EBIT adj. (x)	12.1	10.5	4.5	2.5	2.7	4.5	3.2	2.5	3.3	14.8	17.3	N/A
EV/CE (x)	1.3	1.5	1.2	0.7	1.1	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.3	N/A
Investment ratios	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Capex/sales (%)	1.7	0.5	1.2	0.8	1.4	4.4	1.3	3.9	5.8	2.1	2.1	N/A
Capex/depreciation	0.6	0.2	0.9	0.8	0.9	1.5	0.4	1.4	1.4	0.4	0.5	N/A
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets	15.3	6.4	14.2	11.9	16.1	26.3	13.7	30.5	39.6	8.9	7.2	N/A
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles	11.1	12.4	137.3	96	37.9	47.5	20.9	1.9	20.1	25	24	N/A
Depreciation on intang / def. intang	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	N/A
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles	31.03	50.17	18.28	19.43	18.21	17.77	32.67	22.2	27.83	23.56	14.3	N/A

No valution for the company

Equity Research

Research update Ferronordic Q1: Reasonable quarter given tough comparisons

Initiating Coverage Ferronordic: Asset-light business model with strong cash flows

Previous equity research

Ferronordic Follow

Ferronordic

Leading dealerships of construction equipment with strong aftermarket offerings

Financials

No valution for the company

Equity Research

Research update Ferronordic Q1: Reasonable quarter given tough comparisons

Initiating Coverage Ferronordic: Asset-light business model with strong cash flows