ABG Sundal Collier

Cavotec

A global industrial group

Description
Opportunities
Risk

Financials

Financial snapshots
Income statement
CF and BS
Valuation and Ratios

EURm	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022e	2023e	2024e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%)	5.3	-5.9	5.3	5.5	-4	-8.7	5.3	11
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA	1.3	3.8	0.2	-0.2	6.2	0.2	-0.2	-0.6
Sales	212	197	196	158	142	141	181	218
Sales growth (%)	0.4	-7.3	-0.5	-19.2	-10.3	-0.8	28.3	20.5
EBITDA	-13	-9	21	14	4	13	25	36
EBITDA margin (%)	-5.9	-4.7	11	8.5	2.9	9.5	13.7	16.3
EBIT adj	10	4	16	5	-4	7	18	28
EBIT adj margin (%)	4.5	1.9	8	3.4	-3	5	9.9	12.7
Pretax profit	-23	-15	11	-3	-1	10	17	27
EPS rep	-0.4	-0.23	0.08	-0.04	-0.39	0.03	0.13	0.2
EPS growth (%)	-571.9	42	134.2	-153.3	-827.4	107.3	349.4	59.1
EPS adj	-0.05	-0.01	0.12	-0.02	-0.39	0.03	0.13	0.2
DPS	0.02	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EV/EBITDA (x)	-15.5	-14.5	8.9	15.9	48.9	10.6	5.5	3.4
EV/EBIT adj (x)	20.4	36.2	12.2	40.2	-47.5	20.2	7.6	4.4
P/E (x)	-5.6	-5.5	22.3	-49.8	-5	46.9	10.4	6.6
P/E adj (x)	-44.3	-117.5	15.4	-92.8	-5	46.9	10.4	6.6
EV/sales (x)	0.9	0.7	1	1.4	1.4	1	0.8	0.6
FCF yield (%)	5.3	-5.9	7.5	7.6	-1.9	-5.5	8.5	14.2
Dividend yield (%)	0.8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net IB debt/EBITDA	-1.6	-3.4	1.1	1.2	3.8	1.2	0.4	-0.1

EURm	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022e	2023e	2024e
Depreciation and amortisation	-5	-5	-9	-10	-8	-6	-7	-8
Of which leasing depreciation	0	0	-4	-4	-4	-3	-4	-4
EO items	-28	-18	-3	-2	0	0	0	0
Impairment and PPA amortisation	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EBITDA lease Adj	15	8	21	11	0	10	21	32
EBITDA lease Adj margin (%)	7.1	4.2	10.5	7	0.1	7.2	11.7	14.6
Sales	212	197	196	158	142	141	181	218
COGS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gross profit	212	197	196	158	142	141	181	218
Other operating items	-225	-206	-175	-145	-138	-128	-156	-182
EBITDA	-13	-9	21	14	4	13	25	36
Depreciation on tangibles	-4	-5	-4	0	-1	-1	0	-4
Depreciation on intangibles	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EBITA	-18	-14	12	4	-4	7	18	28
Goodwill impairment charges	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other impairment and amortisation	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EBIT	-18	-14	12	4	-4	7	18	28
Other financial items	0	-3	0	0	-5	0	0	0
Net financial items	-5	-1	-2	-7	4	3	-1	-1
Associated income	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other EO items	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pretax profit	-23	-15	11	-3	-1	10	17	27
Tax	-9	-3	-3	-1	-4	-3	-5	-8
Net profit	-32	-18	8	-4	-4	7	12	19
Minority interest	0	0	0	0	-33	-5	0	0
Net profit discontinued	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net profit to shareholders	-32	-18	8	-4	-37	3	12	19
EPS	-0.4	-0.23	0.08	-0.04	-0.39	0.03	0.13	0.2
EPS Adj	-0.05	-0.01	0.12	-0.02	-0.39	0.03	0.13	0.2
Total extraordinary items after tax	-27.6	-17.6	-3.4	-1.9	0	0	0	0
Tax rate (%)	38	20.3	-29.8	25.6	690	-26.8	-28	-28
Gross margin (%)	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
EBITDA margin (%)	-5.9	-4.7	11	8.5	2.9	9.5	13.7	16.3
EBITA margin (%)	-8.5	-7	6.3	2.2	-3	5	9.9	12.7
EBIT margin (%)	-8.5	-7	6.3	2.2	-3	5	9.9	12.7
Pretax margin (%)	-10.8	-7.8	5.5	-2	-0.4	7.1	9.3	12.3
Net margin (%)	-14.8	-9.4	3.8	-2.5	-3.1	5.2	6.7	8.9
Growth rates Y/Y	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Sales growth (%)	0.4	-7.3	-0.5	-19.2	-10.3	-0.8	28.3	20.5
EBITDA growth (%)	-172.5	26.8	333	-37	-69.9	229.3	85.4	43.3
EBIT growth (%)	-246.5	22.8	188.7	-71.5	-219.7	268.4	152.7	54.7
Net profit growth (%)	-571.8	41.5	140.7	-153.1	-9	269.1	64.9	59.1
EPS growth (%)	-571.9	42	134.2	-153.3	-827.4	107.3	349.4	59.1
Profitability	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
ROE (%)	-25.2	-18	7.2	-3.7	-43	4	16.1	21.2
ROE Adj (%)	-3.2	-0.8	10.5	-2	-43	4	16.1	21.2
ROCE (%)	-12.8	-8.8	8.4	-1.1	0.5	12.1	18.3	25
ROCE Adj(%)	3.7	2.7	10.7	0.2	0.5	12.1	18.3	25
ROIC (%)	-16.5	-12.8	6.4	3.4	-31.8	6	14.3	20.8
ROIC Adj (%)	8.8	3.4	8.2	5.2	-31.8	6	14.3	20.8
Adj earnings numbers	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
EBITDA Adj	15	8	25	15	4	13	25	36
EBITDA Adj margin (%)	7.1	4.2	12.7	9.7	2.9	9.5	13.7	16.3
EBITA Adj	10	4	16	5	-4	7	18	28
EBITA Adj margin (%)	4.5	1.9	8	3.4	-3	5	9.9	12.7
EBIT Adj	10	4	16	5	-4	7	18	28
EBIT Adj margin (%)	4.5	1.9	8	3.4	-3	5	9.9	12.7
Pretax profit Adj	5	2	14	-1	-1	10	17	27
Net profit Adj	-4	-1	11	-2	-4	7	12	19
Net profit to shareholders Adj	-4	-1	11	-2	-37	3	12	19
Net Adj margin (%)	-1.9	-0.4	5.6	-1.3	-3.1	5.2	6.7	8.9
Leasing payments	0	0	-4	-4	-4	-3	-4	-4

EURm	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022e	2023e	2024e
Lease liability amortisation	0	0	-4	-4	-4	-4	-4	-4
Other intangible assets	8	8	7	7	8	9	11	12
Right-of-use asset	0	0	19	19	14	15	16	16
Total other fixed assets	17	18	18	17	16	18	18	18
Leasing liability	0	0	20	19	14	14	14	14
Total other long-term liabilities	8	12	12	10	11	11	11	11
Net IB debt excl. leasing	20	32	4	-3	1	2	-4	-18
Net IB debt / EBITDA lease Adj (%)	132	378.6	18.8	-22.8	615.8	24.1	-20.1	-57.3
EBITDA	-13	-9	21	14	4	13	25	36
Net financial items	-5	-1	-2	-7	4	3	-1	-1
Paid tax	-9	-3	-3	-1	-4	-3	-5	-8
Non-cash items	27	12	-12	2	-3	-14	0	0
Cash flow before change in WC	1	-2	5	8	1	0	19	27
Change in WC	12	3	9	7	-2	-9	-4	-5
Operating cash flow	13	1	14	16	-1	-9	15	22
CAPEX tangible fixed assets	-2	-7	-1	0	0	-1	-1	-2
CAPEX intangible fixed assets	-2	-2	0	-2	-3	-2	-3	-3
Acquisitions and disposals	0	2	0	2	0	5	0	0
Free cash flow	9	-6	13	15	-3	-7	11	18
Dividend paid	-4	-1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Share issues and buybacks	0	0	19	0	0	0	0	0
Other non cash items	-2	-17	-13	2	-9	29	0	0
Decrease in net IB debt	4	2	-12	8	8	4	13	17
Balance Sheet (EURm)	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Goodwill	45	45	45	45	30	30	30	30
Indefinite intangible assets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Definite intangible assets	8	8	8	7	52	51	51	50
Tangible fixed assets	18	20	18	15	7	6	6	5
Other fixed assets	28	17	18	18	17	17	17	17
Fixed assets	88	92	108	103	76	79	80	80
Inventories	37	39	39	38	30	43	45	50
Receivables	53	72	45	37	33	34	42	47
Other current assets	5	6	5	3	24	0	0	0
Cash and liquid assets	29	21	13	19	12	9	10	24
Total assets	211	230	211	201	175	165	177	201
Shareholders equity	104	100	108	106	67	69	81	101
Minority	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total equity	104	100	108	106	67	69	81	101
Long-term debt	46	49	3	13	9	8	2	2
Pension debt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Convertible debt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Deferred tax	7	3	2	2	2	2	2	2
Other long-term liabilities	4	5	9	9	8	8	8	8
Short-term debt	3	4	14	4	4	4	4	4
Accounts payable	34	27	25	24	39	42	47	52
Other current liabilities	16	38	28	25	32	19	19	19
Total liabilities and equity	211	230	211	201	175	165	177	201
Net IB debt	20	32	24	16	15	16	9	-5
Net IB debt excl. pension debt	20	32	24	16	15	16	9	-5
Capital invested	127	134	135	124	84	87	93	98
Working capital	44	52	36	29	17	17	22	27
EV breakdown	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Market cap. diluted (m)	176	102	168	199	184	127	127	127
Net IB debt Adj	20	32	24	16	15	16	9	-5
Market value of minority	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Reversal of shares and participations	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EV	195	134	192	216	199	143	136	122
Capital efficiency (%)	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Total assets turnover (%)	93.5	89.4	88.9	77	75.7	82.9	105.8	115.4
Capital invested turnover (%)	119.4	137	142.9	136.5	114.7	140.8	152.6	163.9
Capital employed turnover (%)	114.9	126.7	128.8	131.3	110.4	130	133.6	131.6
Inventories / sales (%)	20.2	18.1	19.4	20	24.2	21.4	21.7	21.8
Customer advances / sales (%)	6.2	4.9	8.4	11	12.6	10.6	9.5	8.7
Payables / sales (%)	16.1	15	15.4	13.4	15.7	14.3	15.3	15.6
Working capital / sales (%)	22.7	24.3	22.3	20.6	16.2	12	10.7	11
Financial risk and debt service	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Net debt / equity (%)	18.9	31.7	22.3	15.4	23.1	23	11.4	-4.6
Net debt / market cap (%)	9.6	18.5	20	9.7	7.1	12.6	7.3	-3.7
Equity ratio (%)	49.6	43.5	51.4	52.8	38.1	42	46.1	50.2
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%)	18.9	31.7	22.3	15.4	23.1	23	11.4	-4.6
Current ratio (%)	233.5	198.1	142.5	172.2	128.4	129.3	134.1	156.3
EBITDA / net interest (%)	-872.5	-491.3	1134.5	854.3	356.2	948	2485.4	4452.6
Net IB debt / EBITDA (%)	-157.1	-343.9	112.2	120.7	377.4	119	37.2	-13.1
Interest cover (%)	-1247.2	-740.5	650.7	221.5	-367.2	499.7	1785.4	3452.6

EURm	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022e	2023e	2024e
Lease adj. FCF yield (%)	5.3	-5.9	5.3	5.5	-4	-8.7	5.3	11
Net IB debt / share	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0
Share price	2.62	2.17	1.28	1.79	2.28	1.34	1.34	1.34
Market cap. (m)	206	172	120	169	215	127	127	127
Valuation	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
P/E	-5.6	-5.5	22.3	-49.8	-5	46.9	10.4	6.6
EV/sales	0.92	0.68	0.98	1.36	1.4	1.01	0.75	0.56
EV/EBITDA	-15.5	-14.5	8.9	15.9	48.9	10.6	5.5	3.4
EV/EBITA	-10.9	-9.6	15.6	61.5	-47.5	20.2	7.6	4.4
EV/EBIT	-10.9	-9.6	15.6	61.5	-47.5	20.2	7.6	4.4
Dividend yield (%)	0.8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
FCF yield (%)	5.3	-5.9	7.5	7.6	-1.9	-5.5	8.5	14.2
P/BVPS	1.68	1.02	1.55	1.88	2.76	1.83	1.56	1.26
P/BVPS Adj	3.41	2.19	3.03	3.68	6.47	4.22	3.12	2.16
P/E Adj	-44.3	-117.5	15.4	-92.8	-5	46.9	10.4	6.6
EV/EBITDA Adj	13	16	7.7	14	48.9	10.6	5.5	3.4
EV/EBITA Adj	20.4	36.2	12.2	40.2	-47.5	20.2	7.6	4.4
EV/EBIT Adj	20.4	36.2	12.2	40.2	-47.5	20.2	7.6	4.4
EV/cap. employed	1.3	0.9	1.3	1.5	2.1	1.5	1.4	1
Investment ratios	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Capex / sales	1.7	4.7	0.8	1.5	2	2.3	2.2	2
Capex / depreciation	68.4	197.9	33.5	42	64.1	104.6	120.6	106.3
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets	11.6	37.2	7	2.9	-1.4	13.1	19.3	32.8
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles	20.4	21.2	4.6	28.5	35.3	25.6	26.6	23.4
Depreciation on intangibles / definite intangibles	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles	29.8	23.3	26.6	37	58.9	48.1	58.7	88.2
Shares outstanding adj.	78	79	94	94	94	94	94	94
Fully diluted shares Adj	78	79	94	94	94	94	94	94
EPS	-0.4	-0.23	0.08	-0.04	-0.39	0.03	0.13	0.2
Dividend per share Adj	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EPS Adj	-0.05	-0.01	0.12	-0.02	-0.39	0.03	0.13	0.2
BVPS	1.33	1.26	1.15	1.12	0.71	0.74	0.86	1.07
BVPS Adj	0.66	0.59	0.59	0.58	0.3	0.32	0.43	0.62